Binyamin Netanyahu likely to call Israeli election early

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/07/binyamin-netanyahu-israeli-election-early

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Israel's prime minister has signalled that he wants to hold new elections in September, more than a year ahead of schedule, setting up a brief campaign that polls suggest will propel him to another term in office.

A new election could also result in a much different coalition comprised of centrist parties more open to making concessions to the Palestinians. The situation also adds new uncertainty to the decision on whether Israel should take military action against Iran's suspected nuclear program.

Addressing a convention of his Likud party on Sunday night, Binyamin Netanyahu sounded as if he was already on the campaign trail, presenting a list of accomplishments by his government. He said he had strengthened the economy, boosted security and put the issue of Iran's nuclear programme on the international agenda.

Netanyahu also left little doubt about his intentions to call elections and form a broad coalition.

"I believe we will get a renewed mandate from the citizens of Israel to continue to lead the country. With God's help, we will form as wide a government as possible," he said. "I won't lend my hand to an election campaign that will last a year and a half and damage the state. A short campaign of four months is better. That can return stability to the political system quickly."

Netanyahu gave no firm date for the vote, despite days of speculation it would be set for 4 September. Officials said Netanyahu, who ended a one-week mourning period over the death of his father earlier on Sunday, wanted time to consult with other parties before finalising the date.Netanyahu's government, Israel's most stable in years, was scheduled to remain in power until late 2013.

However, disagreements over budget demands, unsanctioned West Bank settlement construction and draft exemptions granted to ultra-religious Jewish men have created rifts inside the governing coalition.

Polls suggest Likud can expect to win at least quarter of the parliament's 120 seats to become the legislature's largest faction – putting them in a comfortable position to form a majority coalition.

The outgoing government was dominated by religious and nationalist partners that failed to engage the Palestinians seriously. The coalition has also been criticised for promoting a series of bills that appeared to stifle dissent by targeting groups opposing government policy.

This time, Netanyahu may emerge well positioned to put together a more moderate coalition.

The three largest centre-left parties, Labor, Kadima and Yesh Atid, are together expected to capture about 40 seats, according to recent polls. Netanyahu could invite some or all of them to join him. None of these parties has ruled out a partnership with Likud.The prospect of an election campaign has also set off a debate over whether Israel might try to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.

Israel, like the West, believes Iran is developing nuclear weapons – a charge that Iran denies – and has repeatedly hinted it may strike Iran if it concludes that US-led diplomacy and sanctions have failed.Attacking during the campaign would inevitably lead to charges that Netanyahu is trying to win votes. In 1981, then-prime minister Menachem Begin ordered a surprise airstrike on an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor just weeks before elections while trailing in the polls. Begin was narrowly re-elected.

Current polls show about 60% of Israelis opposing unilateral action, so the electoral benefits of such a strike are doubtful.

Netanyahu said that his decision would be based solely on strategic interests.

"Of course Iran is trying to dupe the world to win time. But we will not let go of the pressure until the threat is really removed," he said.