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Eurozone crisis live: Greek market rocked by election Eurozone crisis live: Greek market rocked by election
(40 minutes later)
10.07am: The euro has tumbled this morning, hitting a three-month low against the dollar, at 3 1/2 year low against the pound and a 2 1/2 month trough against the yen.
Traders reckon the euro has further to fall in coming days.
10.02am: Some more reaction, from Markus Huber at ETX Capital:
Although Mr. Hollande victory yesterday didn't come to many as much of a surprise, especially after having lead the polls with a sizeable lead for several months and being indorsed by all of the parties leaning to the left after the first round of presidential elections, stock markets are still struggling this morning to come to terms with the fact that the alliance Merkel-Sarkozy has been terminated.
The main problem stock markets across Europe are facing this morning is not that Mr. Hollande has become the new French president but rather the uncertainty his election is bringing with him. While many are convinced that president Holland will be fairly limited in regards to what he can do when it comes to turning back austerity measures already agreed on within the eurozone, many are worried that the eurozone will be less united in the future and therefore not be able to combat the financial crisis and any future crisis in such a quick and decisive manner as before.
For the next few days and weeks the direction of the stock market will very much hinge on how much efforts all sides, mainly chancellor Merkel and president Hollande will be putting into trying to work together and to find common ground.
9.58am: A quick look at the stock markets: Athens is still down 6.6% at 644.45, after the country's main parties failed to win enough votes to form a ruling coalition. The French market is holding up reasonably well, only down 1.4% while Germany's Dax has lost 1.6%.
9.49am: My colleague Alexandra Topping is doing a sister live blog on the the latest news, reaction and analysis after Hollande's victory in France and the big protest vote in Greece.
European leaders are busy congratulating Hollande on his victory, even David Cameron, who declined to meet the Socialist president on a recent trip to London. One of the first to call was German chancellor Angela Merkel, who invited Hollande to Berlin. That meeting will be interesting, given his insistence in his victory speech that "austerity can no longer be the only option".
9.42am: Markets have clearly taken fright at the election results. Credit default swaps in France, Spain and Italy have risen. French five-year CDS are up 5 basis points to 194, Spanish CDS up 9 points to 486 and Italian swaps are up 12 basis points to 442, according to Markit.9.42am: Markets have clearly taken fright at the election results. Credit default swaps in France, Spain and Italy have risen. French five-year CDS are up 5 basis points to 194, Spanish CDS up 9 points to 486 and Italian swaps are up 12 basis points to 442, according to Markit.
9.38am: Looking at the surge in Mediterranean bond yields - Greek ten-year yields have reached 23%! - while the equivalent German yield has dropped to 1.56% - David Buik of BGC Partners, says:9.38am: Looking at the surge in Mediterranean bond yields - Greek ten-year yields have reached 23%! - while the equivalent German yield has dropped to 1.56% - David Buik of BGC Partners, says:
Many expect Mediterranean country bond yields to continue rising until the EU gets its act together. Markets may be sepulchral today. Tomorrow is a new dawn – I am less than convinced how brave it will be!Many expect Mediterranean country bond yields to continue rising until the EU gets its act together. Markets may be sepulchral today. Tomorrow is a new dawn – I am less than convinced how brave it will be!
He also notes that bank analyst Ralph Silva bank has made the following succinct observation against a background of French euphoria and Greek bravado – "None of these newly elected politicians have actually seen the books! They may find the cupboard is bare!"He also notes that bank analyst Ralph Silva bank has made the following succinct observation against a background of French euphoria and Greek bravado – "None of these newly elected politicians have actually seen the books! They may find the cupboard is bare!"
9.24am: Mohamed El Erian, chief executive of bond fund giant Pimco, was quick to give his view on the national elections in France and Greece, and regional elections in Germany.9.24am: Mohamed El Erian, chief executive of bond fund giant Pimco, was quick to give his view on the national elections in France and Greece, and regional elections in Germany.
Writing on the CNBC guest blog last night, he said:Writing on the CNBC guest blog last night, he said:
The common message from the electorate is undeniable, reminiscent of a famous line in the 1976 movie Network: "I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore!"The common message from the electorate is undeniable, reminiscent of a famous line in the 1976 movie Network: "I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore!"
The first thing that Sunday's elections scream out is anti-incumbency. French president Sarkozy joined the growing list of leaders that have been thrown out of office by disgruntled citizens. In Greece, exit polls suggest that the combination of the two usually dominant parties failed to secure even 50% of the votes. And in Germany, the ruling coalition seems to have experienced another setback.The first thing that Sunday's elections scream out is anti-incumbency. French president Sarkozy joined the growing list of leaders that have been thrown out of office by disgruntled citizens. In Greece, exit polls suggest that the combination of the two usually dominant parties failed to secure even 50% of the votes. And in Germany, the ruling coalition seems to have experienced another setback.
The elections also show that an unusually large number of Europeans are opting for fringe parties, some of which are yet to define their vision beyond the need to dismantle the past. In Germany, exit polls imply that the Pirate party may have secured 8% of the vote in Schleswig-Holstein, giving it a voice in a third regional parliament after similar success in Saarland and Berlin.The elections also show that an unusually large number of Europeans are opting for fringe parties, some of which are yet to define their vision beyond the need to dismantle the past. In Germany, exit polls imply that the Pirate party may have secured 8% of the vote in Schleswig-Holstein, giving it a voice in a third regional parliament after similar success in Saarland and Berlin.
In Greece, both extreme left and extreme right parties are celebrating a surge in their popularity. And all this follows France's extreme right wing presidential candidate getting almost 20% of the votes in the first round a couple of weeks ago.In Greece, both extreme left and extreme right parties are celebrating a surge in their popularity. And all this follows France's extreme right wing presidential candidate getting almost 20% of the votes in the first round a couple of weeks ago.
Simply put, this translates into more fragmented European politics, at least in the short run. A politically more disparate Europe will find it even more challenging to reach common ground on a range of important issues.Simply put, this translates into more fragmented European politics, at least in the short run. A politically more disparate Europe will find it even more challenging to reach common ground on a range of important issues.
9.14am: Good morning and welcome to our eurozone live blog, which on this public holiday in the UK promises to provide lots of twists and turns following the elections in France and Greece.9.14am: Good morning and welcome to our eurozone live blog, which on this public holiday in the UK promises to provide lots of twists and turns following the elections in France and Greece.
The prospects of a fight against austerity measures in Europe after the election of François Hollande - the first Socialist president in France for nearly 20 years - and an inconclusive election in Greece have already rattled markets in early trade.The prospects of a fight against austerity measures in Europe after the election of François Hollande - the first Socialist president in France for nearly 20 years - and an inconclusive election in Greece have already rattled markets in early trade.
The Greece stock market fell 7.7% in early trading to 636.7 while the banking index was off 19%. In France, the CAC 40 index dropped 1.7%. The euro fell as far as $1.2955, its lowest since 25 January.The Greece stock market fell 7.7% in early trading to 636.7 while the banking index was off 19%. In France, the CAC 40 index dropped 1.7%. The euro fell as far as $1.2955, its lowest since 25 January.
There were also early signs of a flight to save havens. German government bond futures reached a record high of 142.40 in early trade while the yields on 10-year German bonds - which move inversely to price - were 2 basis points lower at 1.56%. The record low of 1.549% is within sight.There were also early signs of a flight to save havens. German government bond futures reached a record high of 142.40 in early trade while the yields on 10-year German bonds - which move inversely to price - were 2 basis points lower at 1.56%. The record low of 1.549% is within sight.
Over night, Japan's Nikkei 225 index lost nearly 3%, to reach its lowest close in nearly three months of 9,127.39. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 2.4% to 20,583.14.Over night, Japan's Nikkei 225 index lost nearly 3%, to reach its lowest close in nearly three months of 9,127.39. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 2.4% to 20,583.14.
London stock markets are closed today which is likely to ensure that trading volumes across the eurozone unusually thin.London stock markets are closed today which is likely to ensure that trading volumes across the eurozone unusually thin.
Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Reasearch was quick with his take on the elections this morning.Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Reasearch was quick with his take on the elections this morning.
The election of the new French president Mr Hollande may well be a seminal event in the history of the eurozone and over the next few days/weeks and possibly months we will see whether he sticks to his intentions to renegotiate the fiscal compact and promote a growth agenda or whether the reality of the situation and the German position results in him moderating his policies. Whilst many people have suggested that a Hollande victory is "priced in" to the markets that remains to be seen and it is his relationship with Merkel that may well determine the future of the eurozone.The election of the new French president Mr Hollande may well be a seminal event in the history of the eurozone and over the next few days/weeks and possibly months we will see whether he sticks to his intentions to renegotiate the fiscal compact and promote a growth agenda or whether the reality of the situation and the German position results in him moderating his policies. Whilst many people have suggested that a Hollande victory is "priced in" to the markets that remains to be seen and it is his relationship with Merkel that may well determine the future of the eurozone.