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François Hollande: France's Mr Normal gets his chance to shine François Hollande: France's Mr Normal gets his chance to shine
(about 1 hour later)
Tony Benn used to say it's the issues, not the personalities, that matter in politics. As in so much else he was wrong, as his own personality constantly reminded voters. This weekend's election results in Athens, London and Paris make the point yet again that electoral outcomes are a not-always-subtle combination of both.Tony Benn used to say it's the issues, not the personalities, that matter in politics. As in so much else he was wrong, as his own personality constantly reminded voters. This weekend's election results in Athens, London and Paris make the point yet again that electoral outcomes are a not-always-subtle combination of both.
Democratic renewal is usually attractive and Sunday night's thunderous French socialist celebrations in the Place de la Bastille (where else?) must have persuaded many of those present to really believe they have willed fundamental change through the ballot box. Maybe, but the in Greek parliamentary elections, the battered electorate's decision to reject the parties of austerity, has the greater potential to shake the foundations of the European settlement. Markets are already tumbling. Democratic renewal is usually attractive and Sunday night's thunderous French socialist celebrations in the Place de la Bastille (where else?) must have persuaded many of those present to really believe they have willed fundamental change through the ballot box. Maybe, but in the Greek parliamentary elections, the battered electorate's decision to reject the parties of austerity, has the greater potential to shake the foundations of the European settlement. Markets are already tumbling.
In Greece the issue was preponderant, Germany's Angela Merkel, champion of austerity, perhaps the election's dominant-if-absent personality. In France it was a mixture. François Hollande, president-elect of France, is as dull as Clement Attlee, Labour's most successful prime minister. He won as Mr Normal against Nicolas Sarkozy's mercurial and arrogant incumbency as much as he did against his rival's alleged focus on German-led austerity. In Greece the issue was preponderantly Germany's Angela Merkel, champion of austerity, perhaps the election's dominant-if-absent personality. In France it was a mixture. François Hollande, president-elect of France, is as dull as Clement Attlee, Labour's most successful prime minister. He won as Mr Normal against Nicolas Sarkozy's mercurial and arrogant incumbency as much as he did against his rival's alleged focus on German-led austerity.
It would be delightful – read Angelique Chrisafis's profile here – if modesty of outlook and personality, the opposite of bombast and grandiosity, proves a success in the challenges ahead. Hollande is already burdened with expectations that he can change more than is within his presidential powers to change. But Attlee showed it can occasionally be done – "all substance and no show" as Margaret Thatcher admiringly conceded in her memoirs. Ed Miliband may even take some comfort here.It would be delightful – read Angelique Chrisafis's profile here – if modesty of outlook and personality, the opposite of bombast and grandiosity, proves a success in the challenges ahead. Hollande is already burdened with expectations that he can change more than is within his presidential powers to change. But Attlee showed it can occasionally be done – "all substance and no show" as Margaret Thatcher admiringly conceded in her memoirs. Ed Miliband may even take some comfort here.
By way of contrast Boris Johnson, re-elected mayor of London in a cliffhanger count, is as lively as a barrel-full of frogs, clever, opinionated, dishevelled, the epitome of Mr Abnormal. Johnson positioned himself vaguely to the right of David Cameron, but chiefly ran on his sunny personality, that happy knack of cheering voters up in tough times simply by being Boris. In response Cameron grits his teeth and tells today's Daily Telegraph: "I get the message" about Tory voters disaffection.By way of contrast Boris Johnson, re-elected mayor of London in a cliffhanger count, is as lively as a barrel-full of frogs, clever, opinionated, dishevelled, the epitome of Mr Abnormal. Johnson positioned himself vaguely to the right of David Cameron, but chiefly ran on his sunny personality, that happy knack of cheering voters up in tough times simply by being Boris. In response Cameron grits his teeth and tells today's Daily Telegraph: "I get the message" about Tory voters disaffection.
Notwithstanding the excited predictions in the Tory press that he will throw out soppy coalition plans to create fully fledged gay marriage and Lords reform (Nick Clegg argues otherwise in Monday's Guardian), Cameron also rejects the many advocates of "loud ideology" as the answer, the Telegraph reported.Notwithstanding the excited predictions in the Tory press that he will throw out soppy coalition plans to create fully fledged gay marriage and Lords reform (Nick Clegg argues otherwise in Monday's Guardian), Cameron also rejects the many advocates of "loud ideology" as the answer, the Telegraph reported.
"We're not just a bunch of accountants," he avers. No, and there isn't much ideological blue water between him and Boris either: the mayor may have a more bouncy extrovert temperament, but he's still a liberal Tory – just one with fewer responsibilities and (thanks to the City) more money. Tim Montgomerie, the Tory grassroots website guru, says - here – that Dave must move right. Well, yes, but the grassroots always says that."We're not just a bunch of accountants," he avers. No, and there isn't much ideological blue water between him and Boris either: the mayor may have a more bouncy extrovert temperament, but he's still a liberal Tory – just one with fewer responsibilities and (thanks to the City) more money. Tim Montgomerie, the Tory grassroots website guru, says - here – that Dave must move right. Well, yes, but the grassroots always says that.
So Cameron is left pleading for more time in his battle to pay down the national debt and deficit, cut red tape and business taxes that inhibit growth, rebalance the economy and raise the skills base. Sounds familiar? Absolutely. It could be Tony Blair talking. It is certainly not the impatient language of the Front National's Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the charismatic candidate of the French left, nor of the 60% of Greek voters who embraced their own Le Pens and Mélenchons.So Cameron is left pleading for more time in his battle to pay down the national debt and deficit, cut red tape and business taxes that inhibit growth, rebalance the economy and raise the skills base. Sounds familiar? Absolutely. It could be Tony Blair talking. It is certainly not the impatient language of the Front National's Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the charismatic candidate of the French left, nor of the 60% of Greek voters who embraced their own Le Pens and Mélenchons.
All the serious candidates have been rejected, one aghast Greek analyst protested on Radio 4's Today programme. Comedians, actors, goons and thugs have been elected in their place. "This will be a circus, not a parliament, a circus of madmen," he predicted. Steady on. What happens in this situation is that the lightweights quickly fall by the wayside whereas some of the newcomers, comedians, actors, goons, even thugs and accountants, turn out to have a talent for politics, they grow into office and power.All the serious candidates have been rejected, one aghast Greek analyst protested on Radio 4's Today programme. Comedians, actors, goons and thugs have been elected in their place. "This will be a circus, not a parliament, a circus of madmen," he predicted. Steady on. What happens in this situation is that the lightweights quickly fall by the wayside whereas some of the newcomers, comedians, actors, goons, even thugs and accountants, turn out to have a talent for politics, they grow into office and power.
That de-professionalisation of the political elite can be bad – think Silvio Berlusconi, think even worse. But it can also be good, new blood, fresh thinking. People rise to the occasion, it's best to be optimistic, though it's hard to see how in Athens.That de-professionalisation of the political elite can be bad – think Silvio Berlusconi, think even worse. But it can also be good, new blood, fresh thinking. People rise to the occasion, it's best to be optimistic, though it's hard to see how in Athens.
Peter Mandelson has just been on air warning Greeks that abandoning the euro and reverting to the drachma won't solve much – no one will lend money to them. "Greece is the author of its own misfortunes," he sternly asserted. It must respond to the "national necessity", which is austerity.Peter Mandelson has just been on air warning Greeks that abandoning the euro and reverting to the drachma won't solve much – no one will lend money to them. "Greece is the author of its own misfortunes," he sternly asserted. It must respond to the "national necessity", which is austerity.
Half-true at best. The mostly French and German banks that recklessly lent so much money to the Greeks, individuals, firms and governments, at low interest rates so they could buy French and German products, have much to answer for too. We sometimes call it loan-sharking.Half-true at best. The mostly French and German banks that recklessly lent so much money to the Greeks, individuals, firms and governments, at low interest rates so they could buy French and German products, have much to answer for too. We sometimes call it loan-sharking.
Besides, if individuals and the wider private sector are cutting back to pay off their debts, the state or the eurozone must sustain demand in the economy. Otherwise even the export-fetishist Germans will be in trouble: no one else will be able to afford their BMWs and machine tools.Besides, if individuals and the wider private sector are cutting back to pay off their debts, the state or the eurozone must sustain demand in the economy. Otherwise even the export-fetishist Germans will be in trouble: no one else will be able to afford their BMWs and machine tools.
That probably requires the Germans to embrace the logic of the eurozone, which is a Europe-wide underpinning of each other's debts – a bigger financial stability mechanism, eventually a eurobond. But the corollary of that is that Brussels and Berlin will assert greater control over national debt and deficit. It is a scary recipe that is already stirring nationalist and protectionist sentiment across the continent – just the opposite of what the new Europe was supposed to do.That probably requires the Germans to embrace the logic of the eurozone, which is a Europe-wide underpinning of each other's debts – a bigger financial stability mechanism, eventually a eurobond. But the corollary of that is that Brussels and Berlin will assert greater control over national debt and deficit. It is a scary recipe that is already stirring nationalist and protectionist sentiment across the continent – just the opposite of what the new Europe was supposed to do.
Thus educated Greeks on the BBC this morning were talking as much nonsense as an average Ukip voter about how Brussels was forcing them to grow bananas instead of tomatoes. It's fun, but it's usually not very real: we blame outsiders for what tends to be our own collective failings.Thus educated Greeks on the BBC this morning were talking as much nonsense as an average Ukip voter about how Brussels was forcing them to grow bananas instead of tomatoes. It's fun, but it's usually not very real: we blame outsiders for what tends to be our own collective failings.
Foreigners taking our jobs in so many shops, pubs and restaurants, not to mention fruit-picking, all over Britain? Could it be they're willing to be more flexible, work harder, complain less, than the sort of locals who turn down the same jobs? Skills matter, motivation matters, being left to rot quietly on the dole or join the BNP matters.Foreigners taking our jobs in so many shops, pubs and restaurants, not to mention fruit-picking, all over Britain? Could it be they're willing to be more flexible, work harder, complain less, than the sort of locals who turn down the same jobs? Skills matter, motivation matters, being left to rot quietly on the dole or join the BNP matters.
I realise that some immigrants, temporary or not, will undercut local wage rates, but that's not the whole story, far from it, here or in France where labour market rigidities (non-wage labour costs, employment protection, that sort of thing) are far more restrictive than here and youth unemployment higher. As many French people live here now as Brits live in sunnier parts of France: they get our elderly, we get their young thrusters.I realise that some immigrants, temporary or not, will undercut local wage rates, but that's not the whole story, far from it, here or in France where labour market rigidities (non-wage labour costs, employment protection, that sort of thing) are far more restrictive than here and youth unemployment higher. As many French people live here now as Brits live in sunnier parts of France: they get our elderly, we get their young thrusters.
That's one for Hollande's agenda too. If he wants Berlin to go a bit easy on the debt-and-deficit reduction plan – a sort of Ed Miliband lite – so that we can all invest more in infrastructure, research and skills, he'll have to tackle the supply side that makes too many people unable or unwilling to do jobs that need to be done. British governments, Labour and Tory-led, have at least been trying.That's one for Hollande's agenda too. If he wants Berlin to go a bit easy on the debt-and-deficit reduction plan – a sort of Ed Miliband lite – so that we can all invest more in infrastructure, research and skills, he'll have to tackle the supply side that makes too many people unable or unwilling to do jobs that need to be done. British governments, Labour and Tory-led, have at least been trying.
So Hollande has an opportunity, if he has the diplomatic skills and political will, to tilt the balance of the argument away from self-defeating austerity by forcing the German government and its voters to accept that Europe will not be beggared to meet the needs of their domestic politics. It's a narrow field of opportunity, but attitude matters.So Hollande has an opportunity, if he has the diplomatic skills and political will, to tilt the balance of the argument away from self-defeating austerity by forcing the German government and its voters to accept that Europe will not be beggared to meet the needs of their domestic politics. It's a narrow field of opportunity, but attitude matters.
As Australian lefties may still say: "It's only an inch, but it's worth fighting for." Miliband, quietly celebrating a successful election week, but still far from clinching the deal with voters – is it that elusive personality thing again? - might say the same. Why not more?As Australian lefties may still say: "It's only an inch, but it's worth fighting for." Miliband, quietly celebrating a successful election week, but still far from clinching the deal with voters – is it that elusive personality thing again? - might say the same. Why not more?
The awkward fact, too often missing from the narratives offered by left, right and soggy centre, remains the extent to which our economic problems are not self-inflicted but a consequence of the re-emergence of Asia to the centre of the world's stage: China, India and the nations in between, not forgetting the oil wealth generated in the near east, they are calling more and more of the shots.The awkward fact, too often missing from the narratives offered by left, right and soggy centre, remains the extent to which our economic problems are not self-inflicted but a consequence of the re-emergence of Asia to the centre of the world's stage: China, India and the nations in between, not forgetting the oil wealth generated in the near east, they are calling more and more of the shots.
We have to stay afloat by becoming smarter, better organised and using whatever competitive advantages we still have. Fairness matters too. But windy rhetoric about taxing the French rich at 75% above incomes of €1m may make voters feel better, it won't make them any richer. London estate agents are reporting 40% more Gallic inquiries since Hollande made that pledge.We have to stay afloat by becoming smarter, better organised and using whatever competitive advantages we still have. Fairness matters too. But windy rhetoric about taxing the French rich at 75% above incomes of €1m may make voters feel better, it won't make them any richer. London estate agents are reporting 40% more Gallic inquiries since Hollande made that pledge.
My worry as the car horns toot in the Place de la Bastille, beneath the Acropolis in Athens and the copy in central Birmingham, is that the process of winning elections raises the bar of expectations beyond what can be delivered. Alienation, low turnout, xenophobia and heaven knows what else may follow in its wake, as Sarko hoped it might on Sunday. But optimism is always worth a try.My worry as the car horns toot in the Place de la Bastille, beneath the Acropolis in Athens and the copy in central Birmingham, is that the process of winning elections raises the bar of expectations beyond what can be delivered. Alienation, low turnout, xenophobia and heaven knows what else may follow in its wake, as Sarko hoped it might on Sunday. But optimism is always worth a try.