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Gay marriage tangle for White House – live US political coverage Gay marriage tangle for White House – live US political coverage
(40 minutes later)
11am: David Axelrod's conference call seems to have ended in disarray but there were some juicy titbits, especially on the size of the ad buy that the Obama campaign is preparing for the latest ad – featured below – which the Obama campaign is boosting as "positive" in contrast to the bulk of Mitt Romney's advertising to date as negative.
According to Axelrod, the campaign will be spending $25m in May alone on ad buys.
Axelrod also says the campaign will be prepared to respond to pushes by the Romney campaign – and in that he includes the Romney-supporting outside groups, which he memorably dubs "The Karl and Koch brothers contract killers over in Super Pac-land" – a reference to Karl Rove's American Crossroads Super Pac and the deep-pocketed Koch brothers.
10.50am: Obama's top strategist David Axelrod is holding a conference call with journalists right now – and was asked about Joe Biden's comments in favour of gay marriage – when the vice president said he was "comfortable" with the prospect.
Axelrod says that Biden's comments "were entirely consistent with the president's position," but he won't be drawn on education secretary Arne Duncan's disclosure on MSNBC this morning that he too is in favour of gay marriage.
This is the exchange in question, via Politico:
Time's Mark Halperin asked [Arne] Duncan on MSNBC's Morning Joe if he thinks same-sex couples should be legally allowed to marry.
"Yes I do," Duncan replied.
"Have you ever said that publicly before?" Halperin asked.
"I don't think I've ever been asked publicly," Duncan said.
10.42am: North Carolina is meant to be one of the least-insane states in the old South when it comes to politics. It voted for Obama in 2008, after all. And yet, via McClatchy, Tuesday's Republican primary there is bringing the crazies out of the woodwork and running for elected office:10.42am: North Carolina is meant to be one of the least-insane states in the old South when it comes to politics. It voted for Obama in 2008, after all. And yet, via McClatchy, Tuesday's Republican primary there is bringing the crazies out of the woodwork and running for elected office:
Richard Hudson, considered a leading Republican candidate in the race to unseat Democratic US Representative Larry Kissell in the 8th Congressional District, told a Tea Party group in Rowan County recently that "there's no question President Obama is hiding something on his citizenship."Richard Hudson, considered a leading Republican candidate in the race to unseat Democratic US Representative Larry Kissell in the 8th Congressional District, told a Tea Party group in Rowan County recently that "there's no question President Obama is hiding something on his citizenship."
Dr John Whitley, one of Hudson's opponents in Tuesday's primary, declared Obama's birth certificate a "poorly reproduced forgery" after comparing it to the Hawaiian birth certificate of one of his campaign workers.Dr John Whitley, one of Hudson's opponents in Tuesday's primary, declared Obama's birth certificate a "poorly reproduced forgery" after comparing it to the Hawaiian birth certificate of one of his campaign workers.
"There is a tremendous amount of smoke here," Whitley said. "In fact, it's called a smoke screen.""There is a tremendous amount of smoke here," Whitley said. "In fact, it's called a smoke screen."
Mecklenburg County Commissioner Jim Pendergraph, one of 10 GOP candidates in Tuesday's primary in the 9th Congressional District, said this week that he's not convinced Obama was born in the United States.Mecklenburg County Commissioner Jim Pendergraph, one of 10 GOP candidates in Tuesday's primary in the 9th Congressional District, said this week that he's not convinced Obama was born in the United States.
10.30am: Here's the latest Obama re-election ad – and I'd say it is the first real, solid ad of the election campaign from either side:10.30am: Here's the latest Obama re-election ad – and I'd say it is the first real, solid ad of the election campaign from either side:
The message is: remember how bad things were when Obama took office? And it sounds as if this spot will be receiving significant ad buys in the key swing states, more than all the previous throat-clearing efforts:The message is: remember how bad things were when Obama took office? And it sounds as if this spot will be receiving significant ad buys in the key swing states, more than all the previous throat-clearing efforts:
The president's political strategists believe that it is important to counter the criticism coming from Mitt Romney and Republicans that Mr Obama had his chance to turn the country around but failed to do so.The president's political strategists believe that it is important to counter the criticism coming from Mitt Romney and Republicans that Mr Obama had his chance to turn the country around but failed to do so.
"When you tell the story from the other side, it's that one day the president showed up to a blank slate and now things aren't good," said Larry Grisolano, director of paid media for the Obama campaign. "Having that narrative, knowing the complete story is essential to making the right judgment."When you tell the story from the other side, it's that one day the president showed up to a blank slate and now things aren't good," said Larry Grisolano, director of paid media for the Obama campaign. "Having that narrative, knowing the complete story is essential to making the right judgment.
But does it work? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.But does it work? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
10.21am: Speaking of swing states, the swingiest and most important of them all is Florida, a must-win for the Romney campaign.10.21am: Speaking of swing states, the swingiest and most important of them all is Florida, a must-win for the Romney campaign.
The Los Angeles Times checks in to find that the depressed Florida economy is driving the presidential contest there:The Los Angeles Times checks in to find that the depressed Florida economy is driving the presidential contest there:
From the sultry Latin-infused tip of the peninsula to the pine woods panhandle that juts into Dixie, deserted storefronts and empty commercial buildings languish across the state. Weeds choke the abandoned streets and vacant lots of so-called zombie subdivisions, remnants of a speculative bubble that continues to depress the housing market and voters' mood. In Tampa, where Romney and his running mate will be crowned at this summer's nominating convention, home prices just hit another new low.From the sultry Latin-infused tip of the peninsula to the pine woods panhandle that juts into Dixie, deserted storefronts and empty commercial buildings languish across the state. Weeds choke the abandoned streets and vacant lots of so-called zombie subdivisions, remnants of a speculative bubble that continues to depress the housing market and voters' mood. In Tampa, where Romney and his running mate will be crowned at this summer's nominating convention, home prices just hit another new low.
Jobs are coming back. But in a familiar pattern, they don't always match those lost in the recession. Last month, more than 3,300 applicants showed up for 400 new positions at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Tampa, many of them low-paying service jobs.Jobs are coming back. But in a familiar pattern, they don't always match those lost in the recession. Last month, more than 3,300 applicants showed up for 400 new positions at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Tampa, many of them low-paying service jobs.
10am: Remembering that swing state opinion polls at this time of year are as much use as an ice cream tuxedo at an Arizona wedding, a new Politico-George Washington University battleground poll out today – as mentioned below – has some grim reading for the Obama re-election campaign:10am: Remembering that swing state opinion polls at this time of year are as much use as an ice cream tuxedo at an Arizona wedding, a new Politico-George Washington University battleground poll out today – as mentioned below – has some grim reading for the Obama re-election campaign:
Americans are split evenly about Obama's economic policies: 40% said he's made the economy better; 39% said he's made it worse; and 19% said he's had no impact on it.Americans are split evenly about Obama's economic policies: 40% said he's made the economy better; 39% said he's made it worse; and 19% said he's had no impact on it.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group said the 19% who don't think Obama has affected the economy — which split 46% for Romney and 44 percent for Obama — will decide the election.Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group said the 19% who don't think Obama has affected the economy — which split 46% for Romney and 44 percent for Obama — will decide the election.
"Do they break to believing the economy is better? Do they break to believing the economy is not better?" he said Sunday. "Watch that. It's key."Do they break to believing the economy is better? Do they break to believing the economy is not better?" he said Sunday. "Watch that. It's key.
There's lots of other detail in the poll, which Christian Heinze sums up here – but beware: swing state polling at this stage of the presidential election – with six months until election day – doesn't have great predictive powers.There's lots of other detail in the poll, which Christian Heinze sums up here – but beware: swing state polling at this stage of the presidential election – with six months until election day – doesn't have great predictive powers.
9.30am: Good morning and welcome to our coverage of the US political scene for Monday. Here's Ryan Devereaux's summary of where we are.9.30am: Good morning and welcome to our coverage of the US political scene for Monday. Here's Ryan Devereaux's summary of where we are.
• The education secretary Arne Duncan has become the latest administration official to back gay marriage, after the vice-president said he was "absolutely comfortable'" with same-sex unions at the weekend. The White House, which is not absolutely comfortable with the issue, quickly clarified that Biden was expressing his own view and was not articulating an official change in policy. Obama has said his views on same sex marriage are "evolving".• The education secretary Arne Duncan has become the latest administration official to back gay marriage, after the vice-president said he was "absolutely comfortable'" with same-sex unions at the weekend. The White House, which is not absolutely comfortable with the issue, quickly clarified that Biden was expressing his own view and was not articulating an official change in policy. Obama has said his views on same sex marriage are "evolving".
• The Obama camp released a new ad today, highlighting how terrible the economic crisis was and framing the president as the right man to put the country back on its feet. The spot – which will air in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado – is part of the campaign's new "Forward" slogan strategy. In it the narrator says, "it's still too hard for too many. But we're coming back. Because America's greatness comes from a strong middle class. Because you don't quit. And neither does he."• The Obama camp released a new ad today, highlighting how terrible the economic crisis was and framing the president as the right man to put the country back on its feet. The spot – which will air in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado – is part of the campaign's new "Forward" slogan strategy. In it the narrator says, "it's still too hard for too many. But we're coming back. Because America's greatness comes from a strong middle class. Because you don't quit. And neither does he."
• In polling news, the latest figures from the USA Today/Gallup trackerhave the president ahead of Mitt Romney bty 47% to 45%. Just a few weeks ago the president led Romney by nine points. The poll also notes that for the first time Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting.• In polling news, the latest figures from the USA Today/Gallup trackerhave the president ahead of Mitt Romney bty 47% to 45%. Just a few weeks ago the president led Romney by nine points. The poll also notes that for the first time Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting.
• Hillary Clinton has dashed the hopes of those that hoped to one day see her assume the role of commander-in-chief. Speaking in India at the weekend, Clinton said she would not be running for president in 2016 but did hope to see a woman in the office during her lifetime.• Hillary Clinton has dashed the hopes of those that hoped to one day see her assume the role of commander-in-chief. Speaking in India at the weekend, Clinton said she would not be running for president in 2016 but did hope to see a woman in the office during her lifetime.
• The House budget committee will be meeting today to discuss a Republican spending plan to cut food aid, health care and social services while preserving money for weapon modernization and troop levels. The cuts total more than $300bn over the next decade and would come from programs directly benefiting the poor, such as Medicaid, food stamps, the social services block grant, and a child tax credit claimed by working immigrants. The measure will likely face a floor vote on Thursday.• The House budget committee will be meeting today to discuss a Republican spending plan to cut food aid, health care and social services while preserving money for weapon modernization and troop levels. The cuts total more than $300bn over the next decade and would come from programs directly benefiting the poor, such as Medicaid, food stamps, the social services block grant, and a child tax credit claimed by working immigrants. The measure will likely face a floor vote on Thursday.