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Boris Johnson: how right can he get? Boris Johnson: how right can he get?
(40 minutes later)
Mayor Johnson's first post re-election moves underline in deepest blue the weaknesses of his analysis of the capital's future evolution and the trajectory of his personal ambitions. His Monday column for the Telegraph pledged to get to the root causes of unemployment among "native Londoners," by concentrating on their failures of education or motivation, the latter by comparison with immigrant workers.Mayor Johnson's first post re-election moves underline in deepest blue the weaknesses of his analysis of the capital's future evolution and the trajectory of his personal ambitions. His Monday column for the Telegraph pledged to get to the root causes of unemployment among "native Londoners," by concentrating on their failures of education or motivation, the latter by comparison with immigrant workers.
He's now reshuffled London assembly member Kit Malthouse from the head of his office for policing and crime to become his new deputy for business and enterprise and has installed his long-time ally Stephen Greenhalgh, the outgoing leader of Hammersmith and Fulham council, in Malthouse's former job. Each of these things represents a consolidation of the mayor's gut alignment with the free-market yet pragmatically populist Conservative right. He's now reshuffled London assembly member Kit Malthouse from the head of his office for policing and crime to become his new deputy for business and enterprise and has chosen his long-time ally Stephen Greenhalgh, the outgoing leader of Hammersmith and Fulham council, to take over Malthouse's former job. Each of these things represents a consolidation of the mayor's gut alignment with the free-market yet pragmatically populist Conservative right.
Malthouse's new role reflects the predicted higher status given to the economic development brief, and is in line with the more direct regeneration-related powers London mayors now enjoy over vacant public land and diminished central government funding for increasingly unaffordable "affordable" housing. These are important elements in any design of London's economic future, complementing the existing mayoral powers over transport.Malthouse's new role reflects the predicted higher status given to the economic development brief, and is in line with the more direct regeneration-related powers London mayors now enjoy over vacant public land and diminished central government funding for increasingly unaffordable "affordable" housing. These are important elements in any design of London's economic future, complementing the existing mayoral powers over transport.
What does Boris's big picture view of London look like? As we know, he is committed to continuous inflation-plus rises in public transport fares, supports the government's housing benefit caps and has raised no objection to the slashing of the "affordable" homes budget from central government. He is also a champion of the private motorist, despite road traffic congestion being perhaps the single biggest drag on London's economic productivity.What does Boris's big picture view of London look like? As we know, he is committed to continuous inflation-plus rises in public transport fares, supports the government's housing benefit caps and has raised no objection to the slashing of the "affordable" homes budget from central government. He is also a champion of the private motorist, despite road traffic congestion being perhaps the single biggest drag on London's economic productivity.
In these terms, Malthouse is very much a man after the mayor's own heart. He is a notably keen advocate of increasing road capacity, including by building more tunnels to accommodate more cars (a case he's made in the past in the Times). In keeping with the London Tory mainstream he appears unimpressed by studies showing that increasing road capacity simply increases traffic volume and therefore doesn't solve the problem, or by the arguments of free market intellectuals including Edward Glaeser and the late Milton Friedman that regulating road-use through charging - or taxing, if you prefer - makes good market-economic sense. Or maybe he's like his boss, who knows such arguments add up but also knows they are unpopular with a key pro-Tory voter group, London's private motorists.In these terms, Malthouse is very much a man after the mayor's own heart. He is a notably keen advocate of increasing road capacity, including by building more tunnels to accommodate more cars (a case he's made in the past in the Times). In keeping with the London Tory mainstream he appears unimpressed by studies showing that increasing road capacity simply increases traffic volume and therefore doesn't solve the problem, or by the arguments of free market intellectuals including Edward Glaeser and the late Milton Friedman that regulating road-use through charging - or taxing, if you prefer - makes good market-economic sense. Or maybe he's like his boss, who knows such arguments add up but also knows they are unpopular with a key pro-Tory voter group, London's private motorists.
Greenhalgh, famously, is the favourite local government leader of David Cameron and Eric Pickles while Boris has described him in the past as "the great man." Along with a philosophical dislike of social housing estates, Greenhalgh's chief preoccupation is with budgets and a particular definition of the word "waste." My guess is that his brief will be to find any way he can to enable Boris to claim that "police numbers" - that treacherous concept - are being kept high in the face of financial pressures to reduce them. We can, I fear, abandon all hope of any useful interventions to improve Met strategy, priorities or culture.Greenhalgh, famously, is the favourite local government leader of David Cameron and Eric Pickles while Boris has described him in the past as "the great man." Along with a philosophical dislike of social housing estates, Greenhalgh's chief preoccupation is with budgets and a particular definition of the word "waste." My guess is that his brief will be to find any way he can to enable Boris to claim that "police numbers" - that treacherous concept - are being kept high in the face of financial pressures to reduce them. We can, I fear, abandon all hope of any useful interventions to improve Met strategy, priorities or culture.
Boris's Telegraph column asks some very relevant questions about why foreign workers seem to fill so many low-paid London jobs while at the same time unemployment rates are so high among Londoners, especially the young:Boris's Telegraph column asks some very relevant questions about why foreign workers seem to fill so many low-paid London jobs while at the same time unemployment rates are so high among Londoners, especially the young:
Why do immigrant workers seem to look at a job in McDonald's or Starbucks as a stepping stone, while some who were born here apparently regard it as a dead end? Is the problem just to do with pay and conditions? Is it really true that immigrants will work harder for less? Is there really a difference in the "work ethic", or is that an urban myth? One of my first priorities as re-elected mayor is to analyse and expose the roots of this problem.Why do immigrant workers seem to look at a job in McDonald's or Starbucks as a stepping stone, while some who were born here apparently regard it as a dead end? Is the problem just to do with pay and conditions? Is it really true that immigrants will work harder for less? Is there really a difference in the "work ethic", or is that an urban myth? One of my first priorities as re-elected mayor is to analyse and expose the roots of this problem.
There could be all sorts of answers to those questions, but which ones will the mayor to be keen to find? His search ought to encompass the long-term prospects for of an awful lot of young Londoners - including many in their twenties who are well-motivated and well-qualified - of leading reasonably prosperous, self-sufficient adult lives in the capital. There could be all sorts of answers to those questions, but which ones will the mayor to be keen to find? His search ought to encompass the diminishing long-term prospects of an awful lot of young Londoners - including many in their twenties who are well-motivated and well-qualified - of leading reasonably prosperous, self-sufficient adult lives in the capital.
He might very well find that, for them, a low-paid job in their high-priced home city where accommodation, transport and other living costs keep rising is indeed quite hard to get excited about, given how little low pay can buy you here. By contrast, a young person from a hard-up part of the European Union who is willing to cross the continent in search of something better than can be offered at home is almost by definition more motivated, especially when their time in London is likely to be for the short term only. He might very well find that, for them, a low-paid job in their high-priced home city where accommodation, transport and other living costs keep rising is indeed quite hard to get excited about, given how little low pay can buy you here. By contrast, a young person from a hard-up part of the European Union who is willing to cross the continent in search of something better than home offers them is almost by definition more motivated, especially when their time in London is intended to be only temporary.
More genuinely affordable housing might help, but with Greenhalgh now at the heart of City Hall alongside Malthouse, whose London assembly constituency includes Hammersmith and Fulham, we can be confident that a second term Johnson mayoralty will do little to bring that about - probably quite the opposite. All of this is just a flavour of how City Hall is now effectively the Tory-led government's department for Greater London. Like the government, it claims that jobs and growth are its top priority. Like the government, its methods for achieving this seem of questionable use. More genuinely affordable housing might help, but with Greenhalgh now at the heart of City Hall alongside Malthouse, whose London assembly constituency includes Hammersmith and Fulham, we can be completely confident that a second term Johnson mayoralty will do little to bring that about - probably quite the opposite. All of this is just a flavour of how City Hall is now effectively the Tory-led government's department for Greater London. Like the government, it claims that jobs and growth are its top priority. Like the government, its methods for achieving this seem of questionable use.