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The only way is Essex: how party leaders tried to impress sceptic voters The only way is Essex: party leaders try to impress sceptical voters
(about 1 hour later)
All three political leaders went in search of Essex man and womanon Tuesday, the kind of working class aspirational voter that by legend served up three terms for Margaret Thatcher and then three more for Tony Blair.All three political leaders went in search of Essex man and womanon Tuesday, the kind of working class aspirational voter that by legend served up three terms for Margaret Thatcher and then three more for Tony Blair.
Ed Miliband spoke to mainly Labour-inclined voters at a community hall in Labour-held Harlow in the north of the county, the kind of former new town that the late pollster Phillip Gould understood instinctively. David Cameron and Nick Clegg turned up at the last large tractor factory production line in the UK, on the fringes of a giant industrial estate in Conservative Basildon.Ed Miliband spoke to mainly Labour-inclined voters at a community hall in Labour-held Harlow in the north of the county, the kind of former new town that the late pollster Phillip Gould understood instinctively. David Cameron and Nick Clegg turned up at the last large tractor factory production line in the UK, on the fringes of a giant industrial estate in Conservative Basildon.
All three main parties seemed to acknowledge after last week's vote that the electorate are suspending their judgment. Miliband knows he has to do far more to win over sceptical voters with his argument that Cameron has built an economy that no longer works for working people. "The people of Essex have hit a brick wall," he argued.All three main parties seemed to acknowledge after last week's vote that the electorate are suspending their judgment. Miliband knows he has to do far more to win over sceptical voters with his argument that Cameron has built an economy that no longer works for working people. "The people of Essex have hit a brick wall," he argued.
Cameron believes that despite the mistakes, he has not yet lost these critical voters, and they still instinctively understand his argument that you cannot "max out on the credit card twice".Cameron believes that despite the mistakes, he has not yet lost these critical voters, and they still instinctively understand his argument that you cannot "max out on the credit card twice".
These voters are fiscally conservative – they want low rates of tax and demand that others, especially those on welfare, play by the rules; but they are also economically populist and do not like the banks and the rich on the take.These voters are fiscally conservative – they want low rates of tax and demand that others, especially those on welfare, play by the rules; but they are also economically populist and do not like the banks and the rich on the take.
At the weekend the chair of the Harlow Conservative Association, Linda Pailing, summed up that attitude: "The voters are disillusioned with Cameron himself. They don't like the fact that he did not keep the 50p tax. People feel he is not working for them."At the weekend the chair of the Harlow Conservative Association, Linda Pailing, summed up that attitude: "The voters are disillusioned with Cameron himself. They don't like the fact that he did not keep the 50p tax. People feel he is not working for them."
It is a mood Miliband repeatedly tried to mine. But he was also the more empathetic, listening to the stories of his audience, asking them their Christian names and soliciting small details from their lives and those of their children. Cameron and Clegg were more brutal and direct – in keeping with the clanking sounds emanating from the factory floor.It is a mood Miliband repeatedly tried to mine. But he was also the more empathetic, listening to the stories of his audience, asking them their Christian names and soliciting small details from their lives and those of their children. Cameron and Clegg were more brutal and direct – in keeping with the clanking sounds emanating from the factory floor.
Miliband was also wise enough to realise how many of these formerly aspirational voters are now disengaged from politics. In his 50-minute question-and-answer session in Harlow, he opened by admitting that "71% of voters in Essex had not voted at all last week because they felt all politicians were the same. Why is it? Because we make grand promises and then we break them."Miliband was also wise enough to realise how many of these formerly aspirational voters are now disengaged from politics. In his 50-minute question-and-answer session in Harlow, he opened by admitting that "71% of voters in Essex had not voted at all last week because they felt all politicians were the same. Why is it? Because we make grand promises and then we break them."
Instead, he vowed: "That means I will be cautious about the promises I make. I think politicians for too long have given the answers that people wanted to hear."Instead, he vowed: "That means I will be cautious about the promises I make. I think politicians for too long have given the answers that people wanted to hear."
In practice he did, probably inadvertently, promise a lot to improve schools, hospitals and Sure Start and build houses. He also offered few specifics. But it is a mark of his confidence that he feels he can play down his victories last week.In practice he did, probably inadvertently, promise a lot to improve schools, hospitals and Sure Start and build houses. He also offered few specifics. But it is a mark of his confidence that he feels he can play down his victories last week.
He is also clever at trying to close down Cameron-Clegg arguments by saying the public do not want any more excuses. "At some point governments have to recognise it is not presentation, it is not the little accidents that happen in government, it is something deep," he said. "They promised a recovery and they have delivered a recession," he said. "It is no good the government running more excuses, they need to provide answers. The government has been found out not just because their economic plan has failed, but because they have been standing up for the wrong people."He is also clever at trying to close down Cameron-Clegg arguments by saying the public do not want any more excuses. "At some point governments have to recognise it is not presentation, it is not the little accidents that happen in government, it is something deep," he said. "They promised a recovery and they have delivered a recession," he said. "It is no good the government running more excuses, they need to provide answers. The government has been found out not just because their economic plan has failed, but because they have been standing up for the wrong people."
The joint Cameron-Clegg event replete with symbolism held against the grind and crash of the factory floor, was designed to show that the coalition is still hard at work, focused on grinding out results. Cameron used the word difficult seven times in the first minute.The joint Cameron-Clegg event replete with symbolism held against the grind and crash of the factory floor, was designed to show that the coalition is still hard at work, focused on grinding out results. Cameron used the word difficult seven times in the first minute.
But for the first time there seemed to be some defensiveness about the deficit programme and its effect on living standards. Perhaps it was the setting, but Cameron did not blame the Labour government, but instead the scale of the recession. He pointedly refused to say he was backing an austerity programme, saying he preferred the word efficiency.But for the first time there seemed to be some defensiveness about the deficit programme and its effect on living standards. Perhaps it was the setting, but Cameron did not blame the Labour government, but instead the scale of the recession. He pointedly refused to say he was backing an austerity programme, saying he preferred the word efficiency.
He also denied he was isolated from the freshly elected French president, François Hollande, or that a new mood was breaking out in Europe.He also denied he was isolated from the freshly elected French president, François Hollande, or that a new mood was breaking out in Europe.
"If you actually look at what President Hollande is suggesting in France, actually his programme for getting rid of his budget deficit is pretty much on a pathway with ours."If you actually look at what President Hollande is suggesting in France, actually his programme for getting rid of his budget deficit is pretty much on a pathway with ours.
"I think it's a bit of a myth to believe that somehow there are some people in Europe that are going to spend a lot more money, and those of us who realise we have to deal with our debt and our deficit," he said. "We've all got to deal with our deficits.""I think it's a bit of a myth to believe that somehow there are some people in Europe that are going to spend a lot more money, and those of us who realise we have to deal with our debt and our deficit," he said. "We've all got to deal with our deficits."
It is an argument he is going to have to keep making for at least another three years. He can only hope that the voters of Essex do not tire of it.It is an argument he is going to have to keep making for at least another three years. He can only hope that the voters of Essex do not tire of it.