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| Eurozone crisis live: Angela Merkel insists on austerity as Greek government negotiations grind on | |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 10.10am: Here's a bit more detail of Angela Merkel's speech to the Bundestag today, in which she rejected calls for Europe to abandon austerity measures. | |
| Merkel told MPs that Europe's only hope is to implement structural reforms alongside austerity measures. As reported at 9.01am, Merkel was clear that growth could only come alongside debt reduction, not through more borrowing. | |
| Merkel said: | |
| Growth through structural reform is important and necessary - growth through debt would throw us back to the beginning of the crisis. | |
| At the moment, though, most of Europe has no growth at all (even France is stagnating, as we blogged at 8.21am). | |
| 9.54am: If a new Greek government can't be formed, an interim prime minister will need to hold the fort for a few weeks while second election are held. | |
| But who could it be? Lucas Papademos, who ran the country for the last six months, is certainly one option. But there is also speculation in the newspapers today that Fotis Kouvelis, the leader of the Democratic Left party, could play the elder statesman. | |
| As ballymichael points out in the comments below, Democratic Left have been indicating that they're prepared to put differences aside and make coalition deals with other parties, due to the critical nature of the situation. | |
| 9.27am: French bank BNP Paribas has calculated the impact of a Greek exit for the euro on its economy. It's not a pretty picture. | |
| BNP analysts estimate that a Grexit would quickly wipe 20% of Greek GDP, send inflation soaring by 40-50%, and send Greece's debt/GDP ratio soaring over 200%. | |
| Obviously such predictions are broadbrush -- the details would depend on how large a devaluation Greece would take if it returned to the drachma. But it shows the immediate chaos that could be triggered if Greece should leave the eurozone. | |
| 9.13am: Eurozone economic data released this morning was less grim than feared. | 9.13am: Eurozone economic data released this morning was less grim than feared. |
| Italy industrial output actually grew by 0.5% in March, better than expected, and clawing back most of the 0.7% slump seen in February. That still means Italian industrial output is 5.8% lower than a year ago. | Italy industrial output actually grew by 0.5% in March, better than expected, and clawing back most of the 0.7% slump seen in February. That still means Italian industrial output is 5.8% lower than a year ago. |
| While in France, industrial production fell by 0.9% in March, versus February (mainly due to lower energy consumpion as the weather got warmer). Manufacturing output picked up by 1.4% - better news, following the worrying Chinese export data released this morning (see 8.21am). | While in France, industrial production fell by 0.9% in March, versus February (mainly due to lower energy consumpion as the weather got warmer). Manufacturing output picked up by 1.4% - better news, following the worrying Chinese export data released this morning (see 8.21am). |
| 9.01am: Angela Merkel is addressing the German parliament this morning, and it appears that The Lady's Not For Turning. | 9.01am: Angela Merkel is addressing the German parliament this morning, and it appears that The Lady's Not For Turning. |
| Chancellor Merkel told the Bundestag that: | Chancellor Merkel told the Bundestag that: |
| Debt-fuelled growth will take Europe back to the beginnings of the crisis. | Debt-fuelled growth will take Europe back to the beginnings of the crisis. |
| Our Europe editor Ian Traynor reckons the speech looks like an attempt to put François Hollande 'back in his box', following the French president's demands to rewrite the fiscal pact. | |
| 8.57am: Over in Spain, taxpayers have woke up to find they now own 45% of Bankia, Spain's fourth largest bank. | 8.57am: Over in Spain, taxpayers have woke up to find they now own 45% of Bankia, Spain's fourth largest bank. |
| The move leaves many unanswered questions, as our Madrid correspondent Giles Tremlett explains: | The move leaves many unanswered questions, as our Madrid correspondent Giles Tremlett explains: |
| The most important ones are: Will Bankia need more public money, and how much (reports suggest it needs up to €10bn euros more)? And will the government nationalise any more former savings banks as it reportedly prepares to require them to set aside up to €42bn more against toxic real estate? | The most important ones are: Will Bankia need more public money, and how much (reports suggest it needs up to €10bn euros more)? And will the government nationalise any more former savings banks as it reportedly prepares to require them to set aside up to €42bn more against toxic real estate? |
| Answers, presumably, will come by tomorrow, when the cabinet sits. | Answers, presumably, will come by tomorrow, when the cabinet sits. |
| An independent valuation of Bankia's parents company, BFA, may also alter the percentage of the bank that ends up in state hands, according to El País. Finally, what happens to the former savings banks - like Caja Madrid - who, until now, jointly owned most of Bankia? They run large cultural foundations and social welfare schemes. What happens to all that? | An independent valuation of Bankia's parents company, BFA, may also alter the percentage of the bank that ends up in state hands, according to El País. Finally, what happens to the former savings banks - like Caja Madrid - who, until now, jointly owned most of Bankia? They run large cultural foundations and social welfare schemes. What happens to all that? |
| 8.41am: Here's a round-up of what City analysts are saying about the Greek crisis today: | 8.41am: Here's a round-up of what City analysts are saying about the Greek crisis today: |
| Investec | Investec |
| The Greek public may not favour leaving the Euro and there may not be any mechanism by which a country can be thrown out of the currency union, but if Greece abandons the austerity and reform programme, it is not too hard to think of options the rest of the euro area have for effectively expelling Greece. | The Greek public may not favour leaving the Euro and there may not be any mechanism by which a country can be thrown out of the currency union, but if Greece abandons the austerity and reform programme, it is not too hard to think of options the rest of the euro area have for effectively expelling Greece. |
| The EU is reported to have with-held some funding already, paying over enough to allow Greece to repay bonds owned by the ECB and EIB, but with-holding about €1bn of funds due to Greece under the agreed programmes. While Greece is special case as is so often pointed out by Eurozone politicians, an exit from the Eurozone sets a precedence and may stoke contagion fears. | The EU is reported to have with-held some funding already, paying over enough to allow Greece to repay bonds owned by the ECB and EIB, but with-holding about €1bn of funds due to Greece under the agreed programmes. While Greece is special case as is so often pointed out by Eurozone politicians, an exit from the Eurozone sets a precedence and may stoke contagion fears. |
| Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Research | Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Research |
| I liked Mr Schäuble's comment regarding any prospect of the terms agreed by the Troika and Greece being changed; "Any doubt cast on them would immediately trigger catastrophic uncertainty in the financial market…" | |
| I am not so sure about that but what might trigger catastrophic uncertainty is if Greece leaves the Eurozone whilst undertaking a disorderly default..... | I am not so sure about that but what might trigger catastrophic uncertainty is if Greece leaves the Eurozone whilst undertaking a disorderly default..... |
| If Greece were to default on the monies lent by the Troika (and bonds held by the ECB) that the financial fallout (which would be bad enough) might be eclipsed by the medium term political fallout. Difficult to persuade voters to put money into further bailout entities when you have just made one of the worst lending decisions ever. So ultimately if Greece can put together some kind of government over the next month then a renegotiation of the terms might well be on the table. | If Greece were to default on the monies lent by the Troika (and bonds held by the ECB) that the financial fallout (which would be bad enough) might be eclipsed by the medium term political fallout. Difficult to persuade voters to put money into further bailout entities when you have just made one of the worst lending decisions ever. So ultimately if Greece can put together some kind of government over the next month then a renegotiation of the terms might well be on the table. |
| Michael Hewson of CMC Markets | Michael Hewson of CMC Markets |
| The tone from Germany in particular [yesterday] was uncompromising, leave if you wish but there will be no renegotiation and no more money. | The tone from Germany in particular [yesterday] was uncompromising, leave if you wish but there will be no renegotiation and no more money. |
| The game certainly does appear to be changing with talk of a Greek exit now being openly discussed something that would have been unheard of a year ago. For now new elections look the mostly likely outcome, as the baton moves to PASOK to try and form a government. | The game certainly does appear to be changing with talk of a Greek exit now being openly discussed something that would have been unheard of a year ago. For now new elections look the mostly likely outcome, as the baton moves to PASOK to try and form a government. |
| 8.31am: Just to clarify one point - Evangelos Venizelos will formally receive the mandate from Greek president Karolos Papoulias at 1pm local time (or 11am BST) (I'd initally suggested that Venizelos already had it). | 8.31am: Just to clarify one point - Evangelos Venizelos will formally receive the mandate from Greek president Karolos Papoulias at 1pm local time (or 11am BST) (I'd initally suggested that Venizelos already had it). |
| 8.21am: The Bank of France has warned this morning that the French economy is part-way through a six-month period of stagnation. | 8.21am: The Bank of France has warned this morning that the French economy is part-way through a six-month period of stagnation. |
| In its latest economic forecasts, the central bank predicted zero growth in the April-June quarter, on top of the 0% expected in the first three months of the year (official figures will be released next week). | In its latest economic forecasts, the central bank predicted zero growth in the April-June quarter, on top of the 0% expected in the first three months of the year (official figures will be released next week). |
| The forecast came after the latest export and import data from China was released, raising fears about a sharp slowdown in its economy. | The forecast came after the latest export and import data from China was released, raising fears about a sharp slowdown in its economy. |
| Chinese exports rose by 4.9% in April from a year earlier, down from the 8.9% annual growth seen in the previous month. That, economists fear, shows that the global economic recovery is losing pace -- and the eurozone crisis is being blamed. | Chinese exports rose by 4.9% in April from a year earlier, down from the 8.9% annual growth seen in the previous month. That, economists fear, shows that the global economic recovery is losing pace -- and the eurozone crisis is being blamed. |
| Alistair Thornton of IHS Global Insight in Beijing told the BBC: | Alistair Thornton of IHS Global Insight in Beijing told the BBC: |
| It is clear that the situation in Europe is dragging on China's export performance, and in turn on its overall growth. | It is clear that the situation in Europe is dragging on China's export performance, and in turn on its overall growth. |
| 8.02am: A Greek exit from the euro is inevitable, according to almost three-quarters of people who have voted in our online poll. You can still have your say too (currently, 73% of voters say Greece is bound to leave the single currency, with 27% saying it can hang on). | 8.02am: A Greek exit from the euro is inevitable, according to almost three-quarters of people who have voted in our online poll. You can still have your say too (currently, 73% of voters say Greece is bound to leave the single currency, with 27% saying it can hang on). |
| Bloomberg has also polled its investors, analysts and traders, and found that 53% believe at least one country will quit the euro by the end of 2012. Details here. | Bloomberg has also polled its investors, analysts and traders, and found that 53% believe at least one country will quit the euro by the end of 2012. Details here. |
| 7.50am: It seems implausible that Evangelos Venizelos will succeed in assembling a workable coalition in Greece. The talks that have already taken place this week have shown that the gulf between the pro-bailout parties (Pasok and New Democracy), and those who oppose it (most other parties) is too wide. | 7.50am: It seems implausible that Evangelos Venizelos will succeed in assembling a workable coalition in Greece. The talks that have already taken place this week have shown that the gulf between the pro-bailout parties (Pasok and New Democracy), and those who oppose it (most other parties) is too wide. |
| Still, Venizelos has promised to do his best, once he receives the 'mandate' to form a government. Here's what he told reporters in Athens: | Still, Venizelos has promised to do his best, once he receives the 'mandate' to form a government. Here's what he told reporters in Athens: |
| I will continue the effort because it is in the nation's interest. | I will continue the effort because it is in the nation's interest. |
| Prolonging this uncertainty only hurts the country and its economy, and in the end, the weakest and the unemployed. | Prolonging this uncertainty only hurts the country and its economy, and in the end, the weakest and the unemployed. |
| 7.45am: Here's today's agenda: | 7.45am: Here's today's agenda: |
| • Government negotiations in Greece: ongoing (will update with firm times) • French industrial production for March: 7.45am BST / 8.45am CEST • ECB monthly report: 9am BST / 10am CEST • Italy industrial production for March: 9am BST / 10am CEST • Bank of England decision on interest rates/QE: noon BST • America's trade balance for March: 1.30pm BST / 8.30am ET | • Government negotiations in Greece: ongoing (will update with firm times) • French industrial production for March: 7.45am BST / 8.45am CEST • ECB monthly report: 9am BST / 10am CEST • Italy industrial production for March: 9am BST / 10am CEST • Bank of England decision on interest rates/QE: noon BST • America's trade balance for March: 1.30pm BST / 8.30am ET |
| 7.40am: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone crisis. | 7.40am: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone crisis. |
| Today we're inching closer to new elections in Greece, as negotiations over the formation of a coalition rumble on. The mandate to form a new government will pass to the Pasok party, who must now try to succeed where New Democracy and Syriza failed. | Today we're inching closer to new elections in Greece, as negotiations over the formation of a coalition rumble on. The mandate to form a new government will pass to the Pasok party, who must now try to succeed where New Democracy and Syriza failed. |
| Tensions in Brussels are also heightened, following yesterday's decision to withhold 20% of Greece's bailout funds until the sitution becomes clear (as covered in last night's liveblog). | Tensions in Brussels are also heightened, following yesterday's decision to withhold 20% of Greece's bailout funds until the sitution becomes clear (as covered in last night's liveblog). |
| And Spain's decision to nationalise Bankia, it's third-largest bank, has also driven the crisis into a new phase. | And Spain's decision to nationalise Bankia, it's third-largest bank, has also driven the crisis into a new phase. |
| Also coming up, the Bank of England is holding its monthly monetary policy meeting. Could we see more quantitative easing? And there's plenty of industrial and production data due out today, which will show the state of the eurozone economy. Plus the monthly report from the European Central Bank, following its lively meeting in Barcelona last week. Busy busy.... | Also coming up, the Bank of England is holding its monthly monetary policy meeting. Could we see more quantitative easing? And there's plenty of industrial and production data due out today, which will show the state of the eurozone economy. Plus the monthly report from the European Central Bank, following its lively meeting in Barcelona last week. Busy busy.... |