This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/28/syria-why-russia-changed-tack

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Syria: why Russia changed tack Syria: why Russia changed tack
(40 minutes later)
Russia's support for Sunday night's UN security council statement condemning the Houla killings is the first positive news to come out of the Syrian crisis for months. It opens up the possibility, hitherto remote, that Washington and Moscow may find common cause in easing out Bashar al-Assad and defusing the rebellion against the Damascus regime.Russia's support for Sunday night's UN security council statement condemning the Houla killings is the first positive news to come out of the Syrian crisis for months. It opens up the possibility, hitherto remote, that Washington and Moscow may find common cause in easing out Bashar al-Assad and defusing the rebellion against the Damascus regime.
Russian spokesmen moved quickly on Monday to suggest events in Houla, where the UN says 116 civilians including dozens of children died in a bombardment by government forces last Friday, were "murky", that regime opponents carried much of the blame for the carnage, and that Russia's opposition to regime change remained steadfast.Russian spokesmen moved quickly on Monday to suggest events in Houla, where the UN says 116 civilians including dozens of children died in a bombardment by government forces last Friday, were "murky", that regime opponents carried much of the blame for the carnage, and that Russia's opposition to regime change remained steadfast.
But there was no escaping the fact that the unanimous UN statement represented a breach in the diplomatic defences Moscow has erected around the Syrian regime. And it can be assumed with some certainty, given its importance, that Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, will have taken the decision himself.But there was no escaping the fact that the unanimous UN statement represented a breach in the diplomatic defences Moscow has erected around the Syrian regime. And it can be assumed with some certainty, given its importance, that Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, will have taken the decision himself.
Even as the Syrian death toll rose above 10,000, on UN figures, and Kofi Annan's peace mission floundered, Russia continued to peddle the regime line that terrorists and religious extremists were responsible for provoking the violence. Now, by agreeing with the US and Britain that Assad is in violation of international law through his resort to "outrageous use of force", Moscow has taken a both substantive and symbolic step towards backing the Syrian leader's dethronement.Even as the Syrian death toll rose above 10,000, on UN figures, and Kofi Annan's peace mission floundered, Russia continued to peddle the regime line that terrorists and religious extremists were responsible for provoking the violence. Now, by agreeing with the US and Britain that Assad is in violation of international law through his resort to "outrageous use of force", Moscow has taken a both substantive and symbolic step towards backing the Syrian leader's dethronement.
Russia has been under intense diplomatic pressure to shift position, pressure that has begun to damage its wider interests in the Middle East, in relation to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states (all opposed to Assad), and bilaterally with key European powers and the US. But this is in itself does not explain Moscow's tentative lurch towards consensus.Russia has been under intense diplomatic pressure to shift position, pressure that has begun to damage its wider interests in the Middle East, in relation to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states (all opposed to Assad), and bilaterally with key European powers and the US. But this is in itself does not explain Moscow's tentative lurch towards consensus.
A more likely explanation is the return to the foreign policy helm of Putin, re-installed this month as Russia's president. Putin is no dove, no cuddly peacemaker, as he has demonstrated repeatedly in conflict zones ranging from Chechnya to Georgia. His approach is more that of a hard-nosed, unsentimental calculator of national advantage. A more likely explanation is the return to the foreign policy helm of Putin, reinstalled this month as Russia's president. Putin is no dove, no cuddly peacemaker, as he has demonstrated repeatedly in conflict zones from Chechnya to Georgia. His approach is more that of a hard-nosed, unsentimental calculator of national advantage.
The most important item on Putin's international agenda is not Syria, or any of the other Arab spring uprisings, for that matter. It is his meeting next month with Barack Obama. Putin deliberately snubbed the G8 summit hosted by the US president last week in Maryland. He made Obama wait several days before agreeing to accept his telephoned congratulations on his return to the presidency.The most important item on Putin's international agenda is not Syria, or any of the other Arab spring uprisings, for that matter. It is his meeting next month with Barack Obama. Putin deliberately snubbed the G8 summit hosted by the US president last week in Maryland. He made Obama wait several days before agreeing to accept his telephoned congratulations on his return to the presidency.
All this is familiar Putin-style oneupmanship. In theory, it gives him a psychological advantage when the two men meet. So what does Putin want?All this is familiar Putin-style oneupmanship. In theory, it gives him a psychological advantage when the two men meet. So what does Putin want?
Putin wants guarantees about US-led missile defence plans in Europe and Asia, which Russia characterises as deeply threatening to its security. Putin wants acceptance of the Caucasus status quo following the Russian-backed secession of Georgian territories in 2008. Putin wants a fruitful Russian membership of the World Trade Organisation. Putin wants an end to US criticism of Russia's "managed democracy" and civil rights deficit. The list goes on.Putin wants guarantees about US-led missile defence plans in Europe and Asia, which Russia characterises as deeply threatening to its security. Putin wants acceptance of the Caucasus status quo following the Russian-backed secession of Georgian territories in 2008. Putin wants a fruitful Russian membership of the World Trade Organisation. Putin wants an end to US criticism of Russia's "managed democracy" and civil rights deficit. The list goes on.
Crucially, also, Russia wants a peaceful resolution of the looming crisis over Iran's nuclear programme. When Putin meets Obama, he will be looking for assurances that the US will block any Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear facilities, and will not take part in any such action itself.Crucially, also, Russia wants a peaceful resolution of the looming crisis over Iran's nuclear programme. When Putin meets Obama, he will be looking for assurances that the US will block any Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear facilities, and will not take part in any such action itself.
For the Kremlin, a war along its southern, central Asian flank would be far more deeply destabilising, politically and economically, than any amount of turmoil in Syria.For the Kremlin, a war along its southern, central Asian flank would be far more deeply destabilising, politically and economically, than any amount of turmoil in Syria.
Obama wants a lot from Putin, too, including co-operation on producing a successful, negotiated conclusion to the Iranian saga, plus help in dealing with common headaches such as North Korea. So there are plenty of indirect incentives for both sides for an accommodation on Syria.Obama wants a lot from Putin, too, including co-operation on producing a successful, negotiated conclusion to the Iranian saga, plus help in dealing with common headaches such as North Korea. So there are plenty of indirect incentives for both sides for an accommodation on Syria.
In preparation for their bilateral summit, Thomas Donilon, Obama's national security adviser, discussed Syria with Putin in Moscow three weeks ago, according to the New York Times. When Obama raised Assad's future with the Russian prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, at the G8 meeting, Medvedev appeared receptive, American officials said.In preparation for their bilateral summit, Thomas Donilon, Obama's national security adviser, discussed Syria with Putin in Moscow three weeks ago, according to the New York Times. When Obama raised Assad's future with the Russian prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, at the G8 meeting, Medvedev appeared receptive, American officials said.
Under the nascent deal, Russia would agree to the removal of Assad and his replacement by a less controversial government figure, following the example of the transition in Yemen. The regime would remain largely intact, and so too would Russia's Syrian sphere of interest, including its commercial relationships and its naval base.Under the nascent deal, Russia would agree to the removal of Assad and his replacement by a less controversial government figure, following the example of the transition in Yemen. The regime would remain largely intact, and so too would Russia's Syrian sphere of interest, including its commercial relationships and its naval base.
For his part, under such a scenario, Obama would be able to claim that the Syrian boil had been lanced without resort to military intervention (which Russia strongly opposes).For his part, under such a scenario, Obama would be able to claim that the Syrian boil had been lanced without resort to military intervention (which Russia strongly opposes).
Any such outcome would be hard for the democratic Syrian opposition to swallow and would fall far short of the regime-changing revolution many are seeking. It also implies an amnesty for Assad and his henchmen, and leaves open the question where the Syrian president might go if he were forced into exile.Any such outcome would be hard for the democratic Syrian opposition to swallow and would fall far short of the regime-changing revolution many are seeking. It also implies an amnesty for Assad and his henchmen, and leaves open the question where the Syrian president might go if he were forced into exile.
So it is all very tentative, to say the least. As of now, the only deal on the table remains the UN-backed but deeply battered Annan plan, a point emphasised on Monday in Moscow by William Hague, the British foreign secretary, who called it Syria's "last hope".So it is all very tentative, to say the least. As of now, the only deal on the table remains the UN-backed but deeply battered Annan plan, a point emphasised on Monday in Moscow by William Hague, the British foreign secretary, who called it Syria's "last hope".
The six-point plan calls for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons and troops from population centres, humanitarian assistance, release of prisoners and free movement and access for journalists.The six-point plan calls for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons and troops from population centres, humanitarian assistance, release of prisoners and free movement and access for journalists.
Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, accompanying Hague, did not rule out Assad's departure but said regime change in Damascus was "not the most important thing". Arab League leaders have dropped their earlier demand that Assad resign.Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, accompanying Hague, did not rule out Assad's departure but said regime change in Damascus was "not the most important thing". Arab League leaders have dropped their earlier demand that Assad resign.
But this remains the strongly-held position of the American and EU governments – and notwithstanding Annan's meeting in Damascus with Assad on Tuesday, it is now very hard to see any plausible end-scenario in the Syrian crisis that leaves Assad in power. But this remains the strongly held position of the American and EU governments – and notwithstanding Annan's meeting in Damascus with Assad on Tuesday, it is very hard to see any plausible end-scenario in the Syrian crisis that leaves Assad in power.
If he is ultimately forced out as the result of some sort of US-Russian backroom deal, it will be the kind of result that has become typical of Obama's style. Unlike George Bush, Obama does not do conventional wars in other people's countries. He does special forces, drone strikes, covert ops, bribes and assassinations. And deals. If he can pull this off in Syria, it will be a very American coup.If he is ultimately forced out as the result of some sort of US-Russian backroom deal, it will be the kind of result that has become typical of Obama's style. Unlike George Bush, Obama does not do conventional wars in other people's countries. He does special forces, drone strikes, covert ops, bribes and assassinations. And deals. If he can pull this off in Syria, it will be a very American coup.