This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/29/eurozone-crisis-spanish-banks
The article has changed 17 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 8 | Version 9 |
|---|---|
| Eurozone crisis live: Fears grow over Spain as banking crisis deepens | Eurozone crisis live: Fears grow over Spain as banking crisis deepens |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 1.30pm: Our Europe editor, Ian Traynor, reports that a "very tense waiting game" is being played in Brussels. | 1.30pm: Our Europe editor, Ian Traynor, reports that a "very tense waiting game" is being played in Brussels. |
| On Wednesday, the European Commission will issue its policy prescriptions and recommendations for economic and fiscal policy in the eurozone and all 27 EU countries, and there's great interest in what it says about Spain. | |
| From Brussels, Ian reports: | From Brussels, Ian reports: |
| Most unusually, the EC spokespeople could not tell us at lunchtime when we will get the paperwork or who will present the decisions, and when. It's clear there's a lot at stake and also clear that minds may be less than made up among the 27 commissioners who will be meeting from early tomorrow morning. | Most unusually, the EC spokespeople could not tell us at lunchtime when we will get the paperwork or who will present the decisions, and when. It's clear there's a lot at stake and also clear that minds may be less than made up among the 27 commissioners who will be meeting from early tomorrow morning. |
| The arrangements are being "flexibilised", to use the new term coined by main spokeswoman, Pia Ahrenkilde-Hansen, so that a press conference will be called at an hour's notice. | The arrangements are being "flexibilised", to use the new term coined by main spokeswoman, Pia Ahrenkilde-Hansen, so that a press conference will be called at an hour's notice. |
| "I can't remember exactly when we have done something similar to this," she said. Perhaps, once or twice before. | "I can't remember exactly when we have done something similar to this," she said. Perhaps, once or twice before. |
| As for Christine Lagarde's incendiary and now notorious remarks about Greece in The Guardian at the weekend, Greek reporters spent much of the commission media briefing trying to extract a Brussels view of the IMF chief's comments. | As for Christine Lagarde's incendiary and now notorious remarks about Greece in The Guardian at the weekend, Greek reporters spent much of the commission media briefing trying to extract a Brussels view of the IMF chief's comments. |
| "We think more can be done to tackle the plague of tax fraud" in Greece, said Amadeu Altafaj, monetary affairs spokesman. He added that there would be no new troika mission of the EC, European Central Bank and IMF to Athens until Greece had a proper new government with the authority to deal with the outsiders following the crucial elections on June 17. | "We think more can be done to tackle the plague of tax fraud" in Greece, said Amadeu Altafaj, monetary affairs spokesman. He added that there would be no new troika mission of the EC, European Central Bank and IMF to Athens until Greece had a proper new government with the authority to deal with the outsiders following the crucial elections on June 17. |
| The troika folks were supposed to go to Athens next month. That might now appear too optimistic. | The troika folks were supposed to go to Athens next month. That might now appear too optimistic. |
| 1.10pm: Spain's stock market is continuing to slide this afternoon, with the IBEX index now down by 2.6%. Banks are being hit again, with Bankia losing 12% following the news that new bonds may have to be issued to cover its €19nn capital rescue (see 11.35am). | 1.10pm: Spain's stock market is continuing to slide this afternoon, with the IBEX index now down by 2.6%. Banks are being hit again, with Bankia losing 12% following the news that new bonds may have to be issued to cover its €19nn capital rescue (see 11.35am). |
| 12.41pm: Spain's record slump in retail sales (see 8.10am) is even worse if you factor in inflation -- that takes the underlying year-on-year decline to -11.3% in April (compared with a 9.8% drop if you ignore inflation). | 12.41pm: Spain's record slump in retail sales (see 8.10am) is even worse if you factor in inflation -- that takes the underlying year-on-year decline to -11.3% in April (compared with a 9.8% drop if you ignore inflation). |
| That's a jaw-dropping decline in retail spending in a single year. But according to economist Shaun Richards, the long-term decline is even more alarming - and indicates that Spain is now trapped in a depression. He calculates that Spanish retail sales are now around 25% lower than their level in 2005. | That's a jaw-dropping decline in retail spending in a single year. But according to economist Shaun Richards, the long-term decline is even more alarming - and indicates that Spain is now trapped in a depression. He calculates that Spanish retail sales are now around 25% lower than their level in 2005. |
| Richards warns here that this also has a nasty knock-on effect on Spain's budget plans, as lower retail spending = less tax collected through VAT. In conclusion: | Richards warns here that this also has a nasty knock-on effect on Spain's budget plans, as lower retail spending = less tax collected through VAT. In conclusion: |
| If we see a shrinking economy and a fiscal deficit target of 5.3% of GDP for 2012 I see two things happening. Firstly Spain will not hit the 5.3% target and in fact may get nowhere near it but that she is right in the eye of the austerity storm which inflicted so much damage on Greece and her economy. | If we see a shrinking economy and a fiscal deficit target of 5.3% of GDP for 2012 I see two things happening. Firstly Spain will not hit the 5.3% target and in fact may get nowhere near it but that she is right in the eye of the austerity storm which inflicted so much damage on Greece and her economy. |
| And Spain's economy is certainly shrinking -- its central bank predicted this morning that GDP will keep falling in the current quarter, and a recovery is not expected until 2013. | And Spain's economy is certainly shrinking -- its central bank predicted this morning that GDP will keep falling in the current quarter, and a recovery is not expected until 2013. |
| 12.09pm: Fears that the crisis will intensify have driven down the yields on AAA-rated countries, with Gemany hitting yet another new record low. | 12.09pm: Fears that the crisis will intensify have driven down the yields on AAA-rated countries, with Gemany hitting yet another new record low. |
| Germany's 10-year bund was yielding just 1.346% this morning, its lowest ever level, as bond traders seeking safety drove up the value of the bond. | Germany's 10-year bund was yielding just 1.346% this morning, its lowest ever level, as bond traders seeking safety drove up the value of the bond. |
| Such a low yield shows that investors are focusing on capital protection, not a chunky return on their investment (given headline eurozone inflation is running at 2.6%). | Such a low yield shows that investors are focusing on capital protection, not a chunky return on their investment (given headline eurozone inflation is running at 2.6%). |
| 11.35am: The latest word from Madrid this morning is that Spain is rethinking its plan to rescue Bankia, the stricken savings bank that needs €19bn in new capital. | 11.35am: The latest word from Madrid this morning is that Spain is rethinking its plan to rescue Bankia, the stricken savings bank that needs €19bn in new capital. |
| Government sources have told Reuters that the preferred option is no longer to recapitalise Bankia using Spanish government bonds (a controversial idea, as the bonds would then be used as collateral with the ECB). Instead, the current thinking is to issue new bonds to raise the funds, either vai Spain's bank restructuring operation or directly through the government. | Government sources have told Reuters that the preferred option is no longer to recapitalise Bankia using Spanish government bonds (a controversial idea, as the bonds would then be used as collateral with the ECB). Instead, the current thinking is to issue new bonds to raise the funds, either vai Spain's bank restructuring operation or directly through the government. |
| Reuters' source reckoned: | Reuters' source reckoned: |
| The (bank restructuring fund) FROB has liquidity and can tap the market. The Treasury also has a strong liquidity position. We'll choose one or the other mechanism. | The (bank restructuring fund) FROB has liquidity and can tap the market. The Treasury also has a strong liquidity position. We'll choose one or the other mechanism. |
| The official word from the European Commission this morning is that the EC is in touch with Spain about Bankia, but has not yet received an official notification of its plans. | The official word from the European Commission this morning is that the EC is in touch with Spain about Bankia, but has not yet received an official notification of its plans. |
| All Spain's options loook prety bad, to be fair, but prevaricating isn't going to help. As Jane Foley of Rabobank points out: | All Spain's options loook prety bad, to be fair, but prevaricating isn't going to help. As Jane Foley of Rabobank points out: |
| The longer the uncertainties regarding the [Spanish banking] sector persist, the threat of a more pro-longed capital flight will rise. | The longer the uncertainties regarding the [Spanish banking] sector persist, the threat of a more pro-longed capital flight will rise. |
| 11.09am: This won't please Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy: | 11.09am: This won't please Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy: |
| Ewald Nowotny, Austria's central bank governor, has just stated that the European Central Bank has not discussed restarting its bond purchasing programme, and is not in the business of rescuing banks either. Spain's plight would be eased if the ECB would start buying its sovereign debt in the bond markets (as it did last autum to bring down Spanish and Italian bon yields). Nowotny though, who is Austria's representative on the ECB general council, told reporters in Belgrade today that this was not being considered. | Ewald Nowotny, Austria's central bank governor, has just stated that the European Central Bank has not discussed restarting its bond purchasing programme, and is not in the business of rescuing banks either. Spain's plight would be eased if the ECB would start buying its sovereign debt in the bond markets (as it did last autum to bring down Spanish and Italian bon yields). Nowotny though, who is Austria's representative on the ECB general council, told reporters in Belgrade today that this was not being considered. |
| Nowotny added that rescuing national banks was not the ECB's job: | Nowotny added that rescuing national banks was not the ECB's job: |
| We have to be aware that rescuing banks is the responsiblity of national governments.... the role of the ECB is in the field of liquidity and not solvency. | We have to be aware that rescuing banks is the responsiblity of national governments.... the role of the ECB is in the field of liquidity and not solvency. |
| 10.45am: On a lighter note – we've just launched a bumper gallery of eurocrisis cartoons by our own Kipper Williams, dating back to the start of the turmoil. It's here, covering 55 key days in the crisis. | 10.45am: On a lighter note – we've just launched a bumper gallery of eurocrisis cartoons by our own Kipper Williams, dating back to the start of the turmoil. It's here, covering 55 key days in the crisis. |
| I think my favourite is the one showing an army of unelected politicians being smuggled into Greece in a big wooden horse - what's yours? | I think my favourite is the one showing an army of unelected politicians being smuggled into Greece in a big wooden horse - what's yours? |
| 10.06am: Italy's borrowing cost just hit a six-month high at its auction of €8.5bn of short term bonds this morning. | 10.06am: Italy's borrowing cost just hit a six-month high at its auction of €8.5bn of short term bonds this morning. |
| The average yield on the six-month bills came in at 2.104%, up from 1.772% at a similar auction at the end of April. That's the highest level since December 2011. Demand was also lower, with the bid-to-cover ratio* falling to 1.61 from 1.71 last time. | The average yield on the six-month bills came in at 2.104%, up from 1.772% at a similar auction at the end of April. That's the highest level since December 2011. Demand was also lower, with the bid-to-cover ratio* falling to 1.61 from 1.71 last time. |
| * - a measure of how well subscribed the auction was, where 1=fully subscribed with no bids unfilled, and 2=twice as many bids as bonds on offer. | * - a measure of how well subscribed the auction was, where 1=fully subscribed with no bids unfilled, and 2=twice as many bids as bonds on offer. |
| UPDATE: On a more optimistic note, this auction allowed Italy to 'roll over' €8.5bn of six-month bonds issued last November, at an average yield of 6.504% (!). That reflected the panic during the days when Silvio Berlusconi's administration was collapsing. | UPDATE: On a more optimistic note, this auction allowed Italy to 'roll over' €8.5bn of six-month bonds issued last November, at an average yield of 6.504% (!). That reflected the panic during the days when Silvio Berlusconi's administration was collapsing. |
| 9.53am: Here's the ever-pithy Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Research on the way that Spain and Greece are 'competing' for headlines : | 9.53am: Here's the ever-pithy Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Research on the way that Spain and Greece are 'competing' for headlines : |
| It's a bit like watching two candidates on The Apprentice desperately trying to save themselves in the board room from being dismissed by Lord Sugar, only for them both to be fired. | It's a bit like watching two candidates on The Apprentice desperately trying to save themselves in the board room from being dismissed by Lord Sugar, only for them both to be fired. |
| 9.33am: Banknote printer De La Rue has refused to comment on speculation that it has drawn up plans to print drachma notes again if Greece quits the eurozone. | 9.33am: Banknote printer De La Rue has refused to comment on speculation that it has drawn up plans to print drachma notes again if Greece quits the eurozone. |
| De La Rue reported financial results this morning, but chief executive Tim Cobbold wouldn't be drawn on whether Athens had asked his firm to prepare for a new currency to be issued. | De La Rue reported financial results this morning, but chief executive Tim Cobbold wouldn't be drawn on whether Athens had asked his firm to prepare for a new currency to be issued. |
| Cobbold said: | Cobbold said: |
There are 200 countries in the world. Every country doesn't order every year. This year there are orders for customers we didn't supply in a previous year. | There are 200 countries in the world. Every country doesn't order every year. This year there are orders for customers we didn't supply in a previous year. |
| Looking at De La Rue's results, the company also told shareholders that it has "a strong pipeline of opportunities", with its order book 14% larger than a year ago. So someone's ordering new notes.... | Looking at De La Rue's results, the company also told shareholders that it has "a strong pipeline of opportunities", with its order book 14% larger than a year ago. So someone's ordering new notes.... |
| 9.21am: Economists and analysts are watching events unfold in Spain with a sense of deja vu. | 9.21am: Economists and analysts are watching events unfold in Spain with a sense of deja vu. |
| After Greece, Ireland and Portugal, Mariano Rajoy's efforts to retain the confidence of the financial markets in the face of economic crisis have a grim inevitability, argues Shahin Vallée, visiting fellow at Bruegel, the Brussels-based think tank. | After Greece, Ireland and Portugal, Mariano Rajoy's efforts to retain the confidence of the financial markets in the face of economic crisis have a grim inevitability, argues Shahin Vallée, visiting fellow at Bruegel, the Brussels-based think tank. |
| Appearing on Bloomberg TV this morning, Vallée argued that Spain will inevitably need some form of EU assistance - both for its banking sector and to shore up its own finances, adding: | Appearing on Bloomberg TV this morning, Vallée argued that Spain will inevitably need some form of EU assistance - both for its banking sector and to shore up its own finances, adding: |
| This is a movie we've played three times already. | This is a movie we've played three times already. |
| Elisabeth Afseth of Investec reckons that Rajoy may succeed in persuading the EU to refinance its banks directly through its firewall, the ESM. But that might have unintended consequences... | Elisabeth Afseth of Investec reckons that Rajoy may succeed in persuading the EU to refinance its banks directly through its firewall, the ESM. But that might have unintended consequences... |
| Any support provided to Spain must ensure continued access to market funding and separating out the banks from the sovereign would go some way in achieving this. Could make the Irish want to renegotiate though… | Any support provided to Spain must ensure continued access to market funding and separating out the banks from the sovereign would go some way in achieving this. Could make the Irish want to renegotiate though… |
| Ireland has been pushing Europe for months to ease the hefty costs of repaying the promissory notes that were issued to cover the cost of recapitalising Anglo Irish Bank (details here). | Ireland has been pushing Europe for months to ease the hefty costs of repaying the promissory notes that were issued to cover the cost of recapitalising Anglo Irish Bank (details here). |
| 9.06am: Developments in the Spanish banking sector – there are reports this morning that two savings banks are to merge. | 9.06am: Developments in the Spanish banking sector – there are reports this morning that two savings banks are to merge. |
| From Reuters: | From Reuters: |
| Spanish savings bank Ibercaja will discuss a possible merger with rival Liberbank at a board meeting on Tuesday, a source close to the negotiations told Reuters. | Spanish savings bank Ibercaja will discuss a possible merger with rival Liberbank at a board meeting on Tuesday, a source close to the negotiations told Reuters. |
| "Ibercaja's board will hold a meeting this afternoon to consider an integration with Liberbank," the source said, adding the talks were at a very advanced stage. | "Ibercaja's board will hold a meeting this afternoon to consider an integration with Liberbank," the source said, adding the talks were at a very advanced stage. |
| Spanish banking mergers don't have a great pedigree, especially following the crisis at Bankia – which was created two years ago by merging seven struggling regional savings banks. | Spanish banking mergers don't have a great pedigree, especially following the crisis at Bankia – which was created two years ago by merging seven struggling regional savings banks. |
| 8.27am: Spanish government bonds have posted a very slight recovery in early trading. This has pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond down slightly to 6.44% from 6.5% overnight - so slightly further away from the 7% danger zone. | 8.27am: Spanish government bonds have posted a very slight recovery in early trading. This has pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond down slightly to 6.44% from 6.5% overnight - so slightly further away from the 7% danger zone. |
| City traders say there's a mood of optimism this morning, on the back of speculation (again) that China may launch a new economic stimulus plan. | City traders say there's a mood of optimism this morning, on the back of speculation (again) that China may launch a new economic stimulus plan. |
| Spain yield down 4bp to 6.44%.There is no 'new' good news as such - but the mkt noting the firmer equities | Spain yield down 4bp to 6.44%.There is no 'new' good news as such - but the mkt noting the firmer equities |
| — Steve Collins (@TradeDesk_Steve) May 29, 2012 | — Steve Collins (@TradeDesk_Steve) May 29, 2012 |
| Looking across the markets, most stock markets are higher (with Spain lagging behind) FTSE 100: up 44 points at 5400, + 0.8% German DAX: up 69 points at 6392, + 1.1% French CAC: up 27 points at 3070, + 0.9% Italian FTSE MIB: up 122 points at 13179, + 0.95% Spanish IBEX up 4 points at 6405, + 0.1% | Looking across the markets, most stock markets are higher (with Spain lagging behind) FTSE 100: up 44 points at 5400, + 0.8% German DAX: up 69 points at 6392, + 1.1% French CAC: up 27 points at 3070, + 0.9% Italian FTSE MIB: up 122 points at 13179, + 0.95% Spanish IBEX up 4 points at 6405, + 0.1% |
| 8.10am: Some grim economic news from Spain was just released – retail sales slumped by 9.8% in April, on a year-on-year basis. That's a record fall (based on data going back to 2004), and indicates that the financial crisis is now hitting consumer spending hard, with Spain now officially in recession. | 8.10am: Some grim economic news from Spain was just released – retail sales slumped by 9.8% in April, on a year-on-year basis. That's a record fall (based on data going back to 2004), and indicates that the financial crisis is now hitting consumer spending hard, with Spain now officially in recession. |
| 8.03am: Spain's problems are well-covered in today's UK newspapers. | 8.03am: Spain's problems are well-covered in today's UK newspapers. |
| Our own Giles Tremlett reported from Madrid that prime minister Mariano Rajoy warned that Spain "would fall" if it allowed any bank to collapse. The news late last night that Bankia had reported the biggest loss in Spain's banking history added to concerns over Spain: | Our own Giles Tremlett reported from Madrid that prime minister Mariano Rajoy warned that Spain "would fall" if it allowed any bank to collapse. The news late last night that Bankia had reported the biggest loss in Spain's banking history added to concerns over Spain: |
| Nervousness that other Spanish banks may be hiding similar-sized holes saw Spain's borrowing costs soar once more, with investors demanding 6.5% interest on future 10-year debt. That took the rate dangerously close to the unsustainable levels at which other eurozone countries such as Portugal had to request a bailout. | Nervousness that other Spanish banks may be hiding similar-sized holes saw Spain's borrowing costs soar once more, with investors demanding 6.5% interest on future 10-year debt. That took the rate dangerously close to the unsustainable levels at which other eurozone countries such as Portugal had to request a bailout. |
| In the Daily Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard warns that Rajoy has given "a fateful hostage to fortune" by pledging that Spain's banking sector will not need a bailout. | In the Daily Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard warns that Rajoy has given "a fateful hostage to fortune" by pledging that Spain's banking sector will not need a bailout. |
| Whether Mr Rajoy can keep his pledge depends on the ferocity of Spain's double-dip recession. Credit has contracted for eighteen months. Madrid expects the economy to shrink by 1.7pc this year but it could be worse as Mr Rajoy tries to slash the budget deficit from 8.9pc to 5.3pc of GDP in a single year. | Whether Mr Rajoy can keep his pledge depends on the ferocity of Spain's double-dip recession. Credit has contracted for eighteen months. Madrid expects the economy to shrink by 1.7pc this year but it could be worse as Mr Rajoy tries to slash the budget deficit from 8.9pc to 5.3pc of GDP in a single year. |
| Barclays Capital says Spain's housing crash is only half way through. Home prices will have to fall another 20pc to clear an overhang of one million excess properties. That will bleed banks to death. | Barclays Capital says Spain's housing crash is only half way through. Home prices will have to fall another 20pc to clear an overhang of one million excess properties. That will bleed banks to death. |
| The Centre for European Policy Studies puts likely write-offs at €270bn. Much of the loss would land on the state, as in Ireland. The risk is that Spain's public debt will surge above 100pc of GDP. | The Centre for European Policy Studies puts likely write-offs at €270bn. Much of the loss would land on the state, as in Ireland. The risk is that Spain's public debt will surge above 100pc of GDP. |
| And the Wall Street Journal argues that Rajoy must move swiftly and pick one of the 'bad choices on offer: | And the Wall Street Journal argues that Rajoy must move swiftly and pick one of the 'bad choices on offer: |
| Someone is going to have to recapitalize Spain's banks. With the country now again in recession, its problem real-estate loans—currently at €17.9 billion for Bankia alone—look set to get worse. Bankia itself is the newly created product of the last government's attempt to grapple with the losses in its fragmented, but politically influential, cajas. These small regional lending banks controlled most of Spain's banking market, and the idea behind Bankia was to roll them up into an entity large enough to stand on its own. | Someone is going to have to recapitalize Spain's banks. With the country now again in recession, its problem real-estate loans—currently at €17.9 billion for Bankia alone—look set to get worse. Bankia itself is the newly created product of the last government's attempt to grapple with the losses in its fragmented, but politically influential, cajas. These small regional lending banks controlled most of Spain's banking market, and the idea behind Bankia was to roll them up into an entity large enough to stand on its own. |
| Clearly that hasn't worked. The €19 billion that Bankia now says it needs is well in excess of the value of its equity. If taxpayers are going to put €19 billion into Bankia, then its equity holders deserve to be wiped out and its management replaced. Better that than throwing more good money after bad and letting a zombie bank survive on government life-support to make the costs look lower for the moment. | Clearly that hasn't worked. The €19 billion that Bankia now says it needs is well in excess of the value of its equity. If taxpayers are going to put €19 billion into Bankia, then its equity holders deserve to be wiped out and its management replaced. Better that than throwing more good money after bad and letting a zombie bank survive on government life-support to make the costs look lower for the moment. |
| 7.50am: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone financial crisis. | 7.50am: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone financial crisis. |
| Today, Spain has elbowed Greece out of the spotlight (for now), as concerns grow over its ability to avoid seeking outside help. Rising bond yields, escalating bank bailout costs, and a shrinking economy risk becoming a toxic combination. Prime minister Mariano Rajoy insisted yesterday that the country will not need a bailout, and will not allow a bank or region to fail, but some financial analysts scent serious trouble ahead. | Today, Spain has elbowed Greece out of the spotlight (for now), as concerns grow over its ability to avoid seeking outside help. Rising bond yields, escalating bank bailout costs, and a shrinking economy risk becoming a toxic combination. Prime minister Mariano Rajoy insisted yesterday that the country will not need a bailout, and will not allow a bank or region to fail, but some financial analysts scent serious trouble ahead. |
| Elsewhere today, Italy will sell €8.5bn of short-term debt (six-month bills), and updated German inflation data will be released this afternoon. | Elsewhere today, Italy will sell €8.5bn of short-term debt (six-month bills), and updated German inflation data will be released this afternoon. |