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Eurozone crisis live: Ireland votes on EU fiscal treaty Eurozone crisis live: Ireland votes on EU fiscal treaty
(40 minutes later)
12.28pm: Turnout may have been low in Ireland in the first few hours of the referendum (see 11.38am), but the main party leaders voted early.
The Taoiseach, Enda Kenny, cast his ballot at St Patrick's National School in Castlebar, County Mayo, while deputy prime minister Eamon Gilmore voted in Shankill, south Dublin this morning.
For the No side, Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams cast his ballot in the constituency of Louth.
And here's a photo of a Catholic nun casting her vote at the Drumcondra polling station in Dublin.
12.22pm: Irish army bomb disposal officers have made safe a suspicious object outside the constituency office of Sinn Féin Dublin TD Mary Lou McDonald.
The suspect object was found at her office on Dublin's North Strand this morning. The military technical officers have taken the object away to determine if it was a viable explosive device.
11.54am: Fitch, the rating agency, warns that "the risk of a Greek exit [from the eurozone] is material and rising".11.54am: Fitch, the rating agency, warns that "the risk of a Greek exit [from the eurozone] is material and rising".
It does not expect the euro to break up completely, though.It does not expect the euro to break up completely, though.
The warning comes in a new report, in which Fitch outlines how it would respond to a hypothetical exit from the eurozone. It explained that it would rule that the exiting country had defaulted, and would also slash ratings on companies who are based within the country, to junk status or worse....The warning comes in a new report, in which Fitch outlines how it would respond to a hypothetical exit from the eurozone. It explained that it would rule that the exiting country had defaulted, and would also slash ratings on companies who are based within the country, to junk status or worse....
Fitch said:Fitch said:
Ratings of entities from the exiting country would reflect the severe adverse effects from recession, inflation, lack of credit, bank deposit restrictions and capital controls, and potential social and political instability. Combined with the application of rating criteria on distressed debt exchanges (DDEs) to a redenomination scenario, many ratings are likely to go to low speculative-grade or default.Ratings of entities from the exiting country would reflect the severe adverse effects from recession, inflation, lack of credit, bank deposit restrictions and capital controls, and potential social and political instability. Combined with the application of rating criteria on distressed debt exchanges (DDEs) to a redenomination scenario, many ratings are likely to go to low speculative-grade or default.
11.38am: Here's some more info on turnout in the election (see also 11.17am). RTE is reporting that by 10am turnout across Dublin polling stations was around only 4.6% of the electorate. 11.38am: Here's some more info on turnout in the Irish referendum (see also 11.17am). RTE is reporting that by 10am turnout across Dublin polling stations was around only 4.6% of the electorate.
The Yes camp will be hoping for a lunchtime and later tea time surge, Henry McDonald reckons.The Yes camp will be hoping for a lunchtime and later tea time surge, Henry McDonald reckons.
On that topic...opposition party Fianna Fail has issued a statement in the last few minutes urging people to exercise their democratic franchise. Fianna Fail stands alone on the opposition benches in the Irish parliament as the party calling for a Yes vote alongside the ruling.On that topic...opposition party Fianna Fail has issued a statement in the last few minutes urging people to exercise their democratic franchise. Fianna Fail stands alone on the opposition benches in the Irish parliament as the party calling for a Yes vote alongside the ruling.
11.17am: Irish public broadcaster RTE has tweeted that by 9.30am there was only a 3.8% turn out of voters in Dublin South while the turn out in neighbouring Dun Laoghaire was a mere 3%.11.17am: Irish public broadcaster RTE has tweeted that by 9.30am there was only a 3.8% turn out of voters in Dublin South while the turn out in neighbouring Dun Laoghaire was a mere 3%.
Henry McDonald explains:Henry McDonald explains:
It's very early days of course but it is worth nothing these two constituencies south of the river Liffey have produced some of the largest pro European votes in all the referenda on the EU preceding today's one.It's very early days of course but it is worth nothing these two constituencies south of the river Liffey have produced some of the largest pro European votes in all the referenda on the EU preceding today's one.
Polls opened at 7am, allowing people to vote before work. They'll also be open until 10pm tonight.Polls opened at 7am, allowing people to vote before work. They'll also be open until 10pm tonight.
11.12am: An update from Brussels – Mario Monti is telling the Germans that they need to think again on the euro.11.12am: An update from Brussels – Mario Monti is telling the Germans that they need to think again on the euro.
Ian Traynor reports:Ian Traynor reports:
Also addressing a Brussels audience this morning, the Italian prime minister positioned himself halfway between Chancellor Angela Merkel (Frau Austerity) and President François Hollande (Monsieur Growth).Also addressing a Brussels audience this morning, the Italian prime minister positioned himself halfway between Chancellor Angela Merkel (Frau Austerity) and President François Hollande (Monsieur Growth).
He supported the Germans in resisting French calls for the European Central Bank to expand its mandate to promote growth in the eurozone, but backed the French campaign pressing Berlin for greater growth-oriented flexibility. The popular backlash in Greece and elsewhere against austerity meant that the German government had to "reflect quickly and deeply" over how to respond.He supported the Germans in resisting French calls for the European Central Bank to expand its mandate to promote growth in the eurozone, but backed the French campaign pressing Berlin for greater growth-oriented flexibility. The popular backlash in Greece and elsewhere against austerity meant that the German government had to "reflect quickly and deeply" over how to respond.
The comments come after the other Mario, Sig. Draghi, added his weight to calls for closer banking union across Europe.The comments come after the other Mario, Sig. Draghi, added his weight to calls for closer banking union across Europe.
11.03am: As flagged up earlier (see 8.57am), public anger over Ireland's debt ridden and generally loathed banks is one factor in today's referendum.11.03am: As flagged up earlier (see 8.57am), public anger over Ireland's debt ridden and generally loathed banks is one factor in today's referendum.
The news in the last 24 hours that the Irish banking sector needs another €4bn cash injection could influence voters, one way or the other. (details here)The news in the last 24 hours that the Irish banking sector needs another €4bn cash injection could influence voters, one way or the other. (details here)
From Dublin, Henry McDonald reports:From Dublin, Henry McDonald reports:
Where the money will come from is anybody's guess. Some suspect the billions could come from a second international bail out, others fear the state may have to raise the cash elsewhere to keep the Irish banking system functioning.Where the money will come from is anybody's guess. Some suspect the billions could come from a second international bail out, others fear the state may have to raise the cash elsewhere to keep the Irish banking system functioning.
Either way the prospect of Irish High Street banks getting more largesse from the taxpayer, whether they be Irish, German or whoever, will enrage most people in the state. The question is: willl this focus minds further on the necessity to stay in the eurozone because of the need for a potential second loan from Ireland's EU partners and thus boost the Yes camp or will it only compound the growing resentment against the entire financial system and provide more late ammunition for the No side?Either way the prospect of Irish High Street banks getting more largesse from the taxpayer, whether they be Irish, German or whoever, will enrage most people in the state. The question is: willl this focus minds further on the necessity to stay in the eurozone because of the need for a potential second loan from Ireland's EU partners and thus boost the Yes camp or will it only compound the growing resentment against the entire financial system and provide more late ammunition for the No side?
10.45am: A new opinion poll was published in Greece today, putting New Democracy ahead of Syriza in the run-up to the June 17 parliamentary election.10.45am: A new opinion poll was published in Greece today, putting New Democracy ahead of Syriza in the run-up to the June 17 parliamentary election.
Conducted by DATA RC between 28 and 30 May, it showed that 24.5% of people would vote for New Democracy, versus 22.1% for Syriza. The percentages rise to 28.4% and 25.6% when 'don't knows' and those who will decline to vote are excluded.Conducted by DATA RC between 28 and 30 May, it showed that 24.5% of people would vote for New Democracy, versus 22.1% for Syriza. The percentages rise to 28.4% and 25.6% when 'don't knows' and those who will decline to vote are excluded.
Previous polling has put Syriza (which has pledged to renegotiate Greece's austerity programme) in the lead, or neck-and-neck with New Democracy.Previous polling has put Syriza (which has pledged to renegotiate Greece's austerity programme) in the lead, or neck-and-neck with New Democracy.
10.22am: Mario Draghi has made an important intervention on the eurozone crisis this morning, telling the European Parliament that national governments must show proper leadership now to stem the crisis.10.22am: Mario Draghi has made an important intervention on the eurozone crisis this morning, telling the European Parliament that national governments must show proper leadership now to stem the crisis.
The head of the European Central Bank told the Parliament's economic affairs committee that there was no time to waste in fixing Spain and moving more radically towards a proper eurozone fiscal union.The head of the European Central Bank told the Parliament's economic affairs committee that there was no time to waste in fixing Spain and moving more radically towards a proper eurozone fiscal union.
As Ian Traynor explains from Brussels, after yesterday's rather impotent calls from the European Commission, Draghi is a formidable voice:As Ian Traynor explains from Brussels, after yesterday's rather impotent calls from the European Commission, Draghi is a formidable voice:
Draghi added his views to the growing clamour for a eurozone banking union, with common guarantees for depositors.Draghi added his views to the growing clamour for a eurozone banking union, with common guarantees for depositors.
Europe's political leaders need to show "vision", he said, and can't expect the ECB to act as a surrogate eurozone government. A eurozone banking union would need to be supervised centrally, include eurozone guarantees for depositors and a resolution fund, he said.Europe's political leaders need to show "vision", he said, and can't expect the ECB to act as a surrogate eurozone government. A eurozone banking union would need to be supervised centrally, include eurozone guarantees for depositors and a resolution fund, he said.
The requirement was "further centralization of banking supervision." Draghi bluntly showered scorn on the "worst possible" attempts of national authorities to deal with imploding banks, notably in Spain and Belgium.The requirement was "further centralization of banking supervision." Draghi bluntly showered scorn on the "worst possible" attempts of national authorities to deal with imploding banks, notably in Spain and Belgium.
"What Dexia shows and Bankia shows as well is that whenever we are confronted with the dramatic need to recapitalize, if you look back, the reaction of the national supervisors... is to underestimate the problem, then come out with a first assessment, a second, a third, fourth...That is the worst possible way of doing things, because everybody ends up doing the right thing but at the highest possible cost and price.""What Dexia shows and Bankia shows as well is that whenever we are confronted with the dramatic need to recapitalize, if you look back, the reaction of the national supervisors... is to underestimate the problem, then come out with a first assessment, a second, a third, fourth...That is the worst possible way of doing things, because everybody ends up doing the right thing but at the highest possible cost and price."
As Ian puts it, Draghi appears to be "cautiously enlisting in the cause of a eurozone banking union", which would open up a new front in the euro wars. He explains:As Ian puts it, Draghi appears to be "cautiously enlisting in the cause of a eurozone banking union", which would open up a new front in the euro wars. He explains:
Top people in Brussels predict a looming and bruising battle between Frankfurt and Berlin which will centre around the uses and abuses of the European Stability Mechanism, the eurozone €500bn permanent bailout fund which is to be up and running in July.Top people in Brussels predict a looming and bruising battle between Frankfurt and Berlin which will centre around the uses and abuses of the European Stability Mechanism, the eurozone €500bn permanent bailout fund which is to be up and running in July.
One of the biggest and most protracted conflicts over Greece in the past couple of years was between Angela Merkel and Jean-Claude Trichet, Draghi's French predecessor, revolving around the terms of the second Greek bailout, specifically on German demands that it include haircuts for Greece's private creditors. Merkel won, but now concedes she was wrong and that this chastening experience won't be repeated.One of the biggest and most protracted conflicts over Greece in the past couple of years was between Angela Merkel and Jean-Claude Trichet, Draghi's French predecessor, revolving around the terms of the second Greek bailout, specifically on German demands that it include haircuts for Greece's private creditors. Merkel won, but now concedes she was wrong and that this chastening experience won't be repeated.
Trichet consistently argued that Berlin's "moral hazard" argument on private lenders taking a hit and sharing the losses was misplaced and would prove disastrous, setting a precedent and deterring investors across the eurozone. He lost on Greece, but may feel vindicated by events.Trichet consistently argued that Berlin's "moral hazard" argument on private lenders taking a hit and sharing the losses was misplaced and would prove disastrous, setting a precedent and deterring investors across the eurozone. He lost on Greece, but may feel vindicated by events.
Draghi's remarks this morning presumably mean that the ESM firewall would need to be deployed for a banking union, perhaps for the direct recapitalisation of Spanish banks. This is not possible under the treaty setting up the ESM. The money can only go to governments which can then funnel it to the banks. For that to happen, though, a government has to request a bailout with all that that implies - humiliation, very tight strings attached.Draghi's remarks this morning presumably mean that the ESM firewall would need to be deployed for a banking union, perhaps for the direct recapitalisation of Spanish banks. This is not possible under the treaty setting up the ESM. The money can only go to governments which can then funnel it to the banks. For that to happen, though, a government has to request a bailout with all that that implies - humiliation, very tight strings attached.
That has been the German precondition so far. The outcome of this gathering dispute will show whether Berlin is undertaking a serious shift in its approach to the euro crisis.That has been the German precondition so far. The outcome of this gathering dispute will show whether Berlin is undertaking a serious shift in its approach to the euro crisis.
10.14am: New Greek retail sales have just been released, and they're dire.10.14am: New Greek retail sales have just been released, and they're dire.
Retail sales in March were 16.2% lower than a year ago on a volume basis, accelerating the decline in consumer spending (February's data showed a 12.9% tumble).Retail sales in March were 16.2% lower than a year ago on a volume basis, accelerating the decline in consumer spending (February's data showed a 12.9% tumble).
The bad data is hardly a surprise - and simply reinforces the point that the Greek economy, now in its 5th year of recession, is spiralling downwards.The bad data is hardly a surprise - and simply reinforces the point that the Greek economy, now in its 5th year of recession, is spiralling downwards.
This graph by Reuters' Scott Barber shows how Greek retail sales and consumer confidence began to slide as soon as the financial crisis began, and have worsened again in recent months.This graph by Reuters' Scott Barber shows how Greek retail sales and consumer confidence began to slide as soon as the financial crisis began, and have worsened again in recent months.
10.03am: Just in - inflation across the eurozone has fallen to an annual rate to 2.4% in May, from 2.6% in April. Economists had expected a smaller fall, to 2.5%.10.03am: Just in - inflation across the eurozone has fallen to an annual rate to 2.4% in May, from 2.6% in April. Economists had expected a smaller fall, to 2.5%.
This easing in the rising cost of living may give the European Central Bank more leeway on monetary policy, perhaps to lower interest rates again soon (the ECB's governing council meets next week)This easing in the rising cost of living may give the European Central Bank more leeway on monetary policy, perhaps to lower interest rates again soon (the ECB's governing council meets next week)
Update: Here's Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight on the fall in eurozone inflation:Update: Here's Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight on the fall in eurozone inflation:
May's drop in consumer price inflation eases the squeeze on consumers' purchasing power, thereby providing much needed support to growth.May's drop in consumer price inflation eases the squeeze on consumers' purchasing power, thereby providing much needed support to growth.
It also facilitates an interest rate cut by the ECB sooner rather than later, and there is an ever more compelling case for this given the current deteriorating economic growth environment in the Eurozone and the heightened uncertainty stemming from the situations in both Greece and Spain.It also facilitates an interest rate cut by the ECB sooner rather than later, and there is an ever more compelling case for this given the current deteriorating economic growth environment in the Eurozone and the heightened uncertainty stemming from the situations in both Greece and Spain.
9.52am: Polling is well underway in Ireland now on the EU fiscal treaty referendum, as the Republic's 3.3 million voters play their part today in shaping the EU's future.9.52am: Polling is well underway in Ireland now on the EU fiscal treaty referendum, as the Republic's 3.3 million voters play their part today in shaping the EU's future.
Henry McDonald reports from Dublin:Henry McDonald reports from Dublin:
Opinion polls thus far have suggested that the Irish electorate will endorse the treaty designed to impose budgetary discipline on all EU states. But a lot could depend on turn-out! Traditionally anti-European voters are more inclined to get out and vote.Opinion polls thus far have suggested that the Irish electorate will endorse the treaty designed to impose budgetary discipline on all EU states. But a lot could depend on turn-out! Traditionally anti-European voters are more inclined to get out and vote.
And in 2001 and 2008 these voters willingness to turn out at polling booths across the country's 43 constituencies proved critical in defeating first the Nice and then later the Lisbon Treaties on EU reform.And in 2001 and 2008 these voters willingness to turn out at polling booths across the country's 43 constituencies proved critical in defeating first the Nice and then later the Lisbon Treaties on EU reform.
Compared to last week's blistering sunshine much of Ireland today is wet, grey and overcast which may put off some voters from turning out and possibly boost the No camp's fortunes although all the polls have indicated the Republic will pass the treaty. Counting won't begin until 9am on Friday morning across 26 count centres in the state.Compared to last week's blistering sunshine much of Ireland today is wet, grey and overcast which may put off some voters from turning out and possibly boost the No camp's fortunes although all the polls have indicated the Republic will pass the treaty. Counting won't begin until 9am on Friday morning across 26 count centres in the state.
The result which all of Europe and beyond will be watching should be known around tea time on Friday.The result which all of Europe and beyond will be watching should be known around tea time on Friday.
9.23am: Germany's unemployment rate has dropped again -- dipping to 6.7% in May, from 6.8% the previous month.9.23am: Germany's unemployment rate has dropped again -- dipping to 6.7% in May, from 6.8% the previous month.
But on a sesasonally adjusted basis, the number of people out of work was unchanged at 2.872m, while economists had expected a drop of around 5,000. That suggests that the German employment market may be slowing down, after a decent run in recent months.But on a sesasonally adjusted basis, the number of people out of work was unchanged at 2.872m, while economists had expected a drop of around 5,000. That suggests that the German employment market may be slowing down, after a decent run in recent months.
Carsten Brzeski of ING warned that "signs are increasing that the German labour market is slowly cracking up".Carsten Brzeski of ING warned that "signs are increasing that the German labour market is slowly cracking up".
At 6.7%, the German unemployment rate is comfortably below the eurozone average of 10.9% (a 15-year high).At 6.7%, the German unemployment rate is comfortably below the eurozone average of 10.9% (a 15-year high).
9.10am: In the bond markets, the yields* on French and Austrian 10-year bonds have both fallen to their lowest level since the euro was created.9.10am: In the bond markets, the yields* on French and Austrian 10-year bonds have both fallen to their lowest level since the euro was created.
In the latest sign that investors are stashing their funds in safe European debt, the price of debt issued by France and Austra rallied this morning. This pushed the yield on France's 10-year bond down to just 2.379%, and the Austrian equivalent to 2.13%. In the latest sign that investors are stashing their funds in safe European debt, the price of debt issued by France and Austra rallied this morning. This pushed the yield on France's 10-year bond down to just 2.379%, and the Austrian equivalent to 2.13%.
In the European stock markets, shares have gained a little this morning. The FTSE 100 is up 45 points (+0.86%), and the Spanish IBEX has gained 1.2%.In the European stock markets, shares have gained a little this morning. The FTSE 100 is up 45 points (+0.86%), and the Spanish IBEX has gained 1.2%.
* - yields measure the rate of return on a bond, falling when the price rises and vice versa. So if a trader is prepared to pay more to hold a certain bond, s/he accepts a lower return.* - yields measure the rate of return on a bond, falling when the price rises and vice versa. So if a trader is prepared to pay more to hold a certain bond, s/he accepts a lower return.
8.57am: There have been signs of a certain degree of anti-German sentiment in Ireland in the run-up to today's referendum:8.57am: There have been signs of a certain degree of anti-German sentiment in Ireland in the run-up to today's referendum:
This photo was taken outside Leinster House, where the Irish Parliament is based, on Wednesday.This photo was taken outside Leinster House, where the Irish Parliament is based, on Wednesday.
It's now 18 months since Ireland signed up for its highly unpopular €85bn bailout plan, which forces hefty cuts to government spending and a raft of tax rises. The most unpopular issue, though, is that Ireland took the debts of its failing banks on to the public books. That decision helped prevent the contagion hitting other financial institutions across Europe, but in return Ireland is left paying off €31bn of promissory notes at high interest rates.It's now 18 months since Ireland signed up for its highly unpopular €85bn bailout plan, which forces hefty cuts to government spending and a raft of tax rises. The most unpopular issue, though, is that Ireland took the debts of its failing banks on to the public books. That decision helped prevent the contagion hitting other financial institutions across Europe, but in return Ireland is left paying off €31bn of promissory notes at high interest rates.
8.40am: We've just launched this Q&A explaining how the Irish referendum works.8.40am: We've just launched this Q&A explaining how the Irish referendum works.
8.32am: Polling data in the run-up to today's vote suggested that the Yes camp will win. But there are no guarantees.8.32am: Polling data in the run-up to today's vote suggested that the Yes camp will win. But there are no guarantees.
As the BBC explains:As the BBC explains:
The nightmare scenario for the government is that people wake up on Thursday morning and decide to give ministers a bloody nose by voting 'no' in the referendum.The nightmare scenario for the government is that people wake up on Thursday morning and decide to give ministers a bloody nose by voting 'no' in the referendum.
After four years of austerity measures, some anti-treaty campaigners are predicting the "revenge of the people".After four years of austerity measures, some anti-treaty campaigners are predicting the "revenge of the people".
Four opinion polls released over the weekend indicated that around 60% of voters would back the treaty. But a significant number of people have been classed as 'don't knows' in the run-up to today's vote.Four opinion polls released over the weekend indicated that around 60% of voters would back the treaty. But a significant number of people have been classed as 'don't knows' in the run-up to today's vote.
The BBC also says that some 'yes' campaigners reckon the gap could be as close as 53-47. A sign of nerves, or an attempt to encourage Yes voters to the polls?The BBC also says that some 'yes' campaigners reckon the gap could be as close as 53-47. A sign of nerves, or an attempt to encourage Yes voters to the polls?
8.28am: Last night, Irish prime minister Enda Kenny urged the Irish people to vote Yes in today's referendum on the fiscal compact. He claimed that the country's borrowing costs would leap to dangerous levels if it did not have the protection of the European Stability Mechanism.8.28am: Last night, Irish prime minister Enda Kenny urged the Irish people to vote Yes in today's referendum on the fiscal compact. He claimed that the country's borrowing costs would leap to dangerous levels if it did not have the protection of the European Stability Mechanism.
Taoiseach Kenny said:Taoiseach Kenny said:
Countries that ratify this have access to the ESM, countries that don't won't and the difference between 3% and 7%, or even 8% or 9%, is enormous in the context of availability of funding, were that ever to be necessary.Countries that ratify this have access to the ESM, countries that don't won't and the difference between 3% and 7%, or even 8% or 9%, is enormous in the context of availability of funding, were that ever to be necessary.

Ireland's 10-year bond are trading at a yield of 7.4% this morning. That's a higher rate than a country can reasonably borrow at, but not so high that investors have given up on the country (whose borrowing needs are covered until the end of 2013 by its current bailout)
Ireland's 10-year bond are trading at a yield of 7.4% this morning. That's a higher rate than a country can reasonably borrow at, but not so high that investors have given up on the country (whose borrowing needs are covered until the end of 2013 by its current bailout)
The No campaign, though, takes a very different view. It argues that rejecting the Treaty will give Ireland the authority to go back to the rest of Europe and demand a better bailout plan.The No campaign, though, takes a very different view. It argues that rejecting the Treaty will give Ireland the authority to go back to the rest of Europe and demand a better bailout plan.
Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams argued that voting No was the "patriotic thing to do":Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams argued that voting No was the "patriotic thing to do":
I ask Irish citizens not to be bullied, not to give their democratic rights away, not to give up their say over Irish economic policy and not to write austerity into the Constitution.I ask Irish citizens not to be bullied, not to give their democratic rights away, not to give up their say over Irish economic policy and not to write austerity into the Constitution.
8.08am: Irish voters face an unenviable choice today. The EU fiscal compact will force member states to hit tough budget targets, which could mean more further pain for a country that is already deep into its austerity programme.8.08am: Irish voters face an unenviable choice today. The EU fiscal compact will force member states to hit tough budget targets, which could mean more further pain for a country that is already deep into its austerity programme.
But the fiscal compact will also guarantee access to the European Stability Mechanism, Europe's new bailout fund – a financial lifeline to countries who cannot borrow in the debt markets.But the fiscal compact will also guarantee access to the European Stability Mechanism, Europe's new bailout fund – a financial lifeline to countries who cannot borrow in the debt markets.
Our leader article argues today that the pact is "an unroadworthy vehicle going the wrong way":Our leader article argues today that the pact is "an unroadworthy vehicle going the wrong way":
It's lethal not only for its occupants but other road users, it's got an oil leak and probably no brakes. Would you hitch a ride in one, if it lurched to a halt in front of you?It's lethal not only for its occupants but other road users, it's got an oil leak and probably no brakes. Would you hitch a ride in one, if it lurched to a halt in front of you?
But with no guarantee that Ireland can return to the financial markets as soon as planned, refusing a lift could be a gamble. Ultimately, it's a choice between fear and anger:But with no guarantee that Ireland can return to the financial markets as soon as planned, refusing a lift could be a gamble. Ultimately, it's a choice between fear and anger:

Fear might well win the day in Ireland: no one knows whether a Greek exit would be a blip on the screens or another Lehman Brothers. But if the firewalls are not as thick as they are cracked up to be, would Ireland be the next point of contagion? The Germans need to get a signal, but would your economy be the one wanting to send it ? It's hardly a great choice.
Fear might well win the day in Ireland: no one knows whether a Greek exit would be a blip on the screens or another Lehman Brothers. But if the firewalls are not as thick as they are cracked up to be, would Ireland be the next point of contagion? The Germans need to get a signal, but would your economy be the one wanting to send it ? It's hardly a great choice.
7.55am: Here's a quick agenda of some of the main events happening today:7.55am: Here's a quick agenda of some of the main events happening today:
• Irish referendum: all day, polls close at 10pm
• German unemployment data: 8.55am
• Eurozone inflation for May: 10am
• US Q1 GDP, second revision: 1.30pm
• Brussels Economic Forum: all day (including Olli Rehn and Mario Monti).		• Irish referendum: all day, polls close at 10pm
• German unemployment data: 8.55am
• Eurozone inflation for May: 10am
• US Q1 GDP, second revision: 1.30pm
• Brussels Economic Forum: all day (including Olli Rehn and Mario Monti).
India, Switzerland, the Philippines and Denmark are all releasing (or have already released) GDP data, so we'll keep an eye on the reaction to that data, for a more global economic perspective.India, Switzerland, the Philippines and Denmark are all releasing (or have already released) GDP data, so we'll keep an eye on the reaction to that data, for a more global economic perspective.
7.45am: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone financial crisis.7.45am: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone financial crisis.
Ireland is the centre of attention today, as it holds its referendum on whether to ratify the fiscal compact. Polls have just opened across the country, and our Dublin correspondent Henry McDonald will be following all the action throughout the day. The results itself will be released on Friday.Ireland is the centre of attention today, as it holds its referendum on whether to ratify the fiscal compact. Polls have just opened across the country, and our Dublin correspondent Henry McDonald will be following all the action throughout the day. The results itself will be released on Friday.
Elsewhere, Spain is still a major concern. The crisis over its banking sector continues, there is still no clear plan for recapitalising Bankia, and its bond yields are still dangerousy high.Elsewhere, Spain is still a major concern. The crisis over its banking sector continues, there is still no clear plan for recapitalising Bankia, and its bond yields are still dangerousy high.
We'll also be tracking the reaction to yesterday's EU report cards on the European economy, which included a call for closer banking union, and warnings that France and Spain need to do more to bring their deficits down (although Spain may be given more time).We'll also be tracking the reaction to yesterday's EU report cards on the European economy, which included a call for closer banking union, and warnings that France and Spain need to do more to bring their deficits down (although Spain may be given more time).
There's also a lot of economic data being released today, including German unemployment, eurozone inflation, French and German retail figures, and another estimate of US GDP. Busy busyThere's also a lot of economic data being released today, including German unemployment, eurozone inflation, French and German retail figures, and another estimate of US GDP. Busy busy