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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
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| More signs of a clean-up at suspect Iran site | More signs of a clean-up at suspect Iran site |
| (8 days later) | |
| Nine days have gone by since the head of the IAEA returned from Tehran to say he and the Iranians had agreed to agree about resuming investigations into alleged Iranian nuclear weapons work and that a deal would be signed "quite soon". Item number one of that deal was to be an IAEA visit to the Parchin military site, southeast of Tehran, where IAEA inspectors would like to see a building they think may have been used to test high-explosive components of a nuclear warhead. | Nine days have gone by since the head of the IAEA returned from Tehran to say he and the Iranians had agreed to agree about resuming investigations into alleged Iranian nuclear weapons work and that a deal would be signed "quite soon". Item number one of that deal was to be an IAEA visit to the Parchin military site, southeast of Tehran, where IAEA inspectors would like to see a building they think may have been used to test high-explosive components of a nuclear warhead. |
| As time has gone by, Amano's "decided to agree" formula looks more and more like the best possible spin on a negative outcome. Indeed, the IAEA board meeting was told yesterday that the agency's officials were "still looking for a date" to meet again with their Iranian counterparts. In other words, contact has broken down. | As time has gone by, Amano's "decided to agree" formula looks more and more like the best possible spin on a negative outcome. Indeed, the IAEA board meeting was told yesterday that the agency's officials were "still looking for a date" to meet again with their Iranian counterparts. In other words, contact has broken down. |
| Events are moving considerably faster at Parchin, meanwhile. The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) published a new satellite image showing activity at Parchin. Two out-buildings at the complex seem to have been razed to the ground and there are signs of earth-moving and the use of heavy machinery. | Events are moving considerably faster at Parchin, meanwhile. The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) published a new satellite image showing activity at Parchin. Two out-buildings at the complex seem to have been razed to the ground and there are signs of earth-moving and the use of heavy machinery. |
| Earlier in the month, ISIS published another picture showing streams of water flowing out of the main building at the site, where the tests are suspected to have been carried out. | Earlier in the month, ISIS published another picture showing streams of water flowing out of the main building at the site, where the tests are suspected to have been carried out. |
| Incidentally, this is not the first time the Iranians have conducted a major clean-up of a site of interest to the IAEA. In 2004, the site of the former Physics Research Centre at Lavisan in Tehran, was also completely obliterated. As Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk points out, it is now a rather lovely park. | Incidentally, this is not the first time the Iranians have conducted a major clean-up of a site of interest to the IAEA. In 2004, the site of the former Physics Research Centre at Lavisan in Tehran, was also completely obliterated. As Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk points out, it is now a rather lovely park. |
| In an earlier post, Lewis goes into detail about Parchin and what is alleged to have gone on there, questioning some of the computer-generated imagery currently in circulation. On the Nuclear Diner blog, Cheryl Rofer, who used to carry out environmental testing at Los Alamos, site of the US Manhattan Project, also discusses what might be left behind from warhead initiator testing. | In an earlier post, Lewis goes into detail about Parchin and what is alleged to have gone on there, questioning some of the computer-generated imagery currently in circulation. On the Nuclear Diner blog, Cheryl Rofer, who used to carry out environmental testing at Los Alamos, site of the US Manhattan Project, also discusses what might be left behind from warhead initiator testing. |
| All the above suggests that it might be some time between Amano's 'agreement to sign an agreement' on Parchin and the agreement itself. The issue did come up at the broader nuclear talks in Baghdad last week, but like so much else, the context is shrouded in confusion. One participant at the talks told me Iran seemed to be asking for compensation for an IAEA deal in the form of sanctions relief. Another participant has since said that the chief Iranian negotiator, Saeed Jalili, seemed to want to separate the IAEA talks and the broader talks with six major powers, which will resume in Moscow next month. | All the above suggests that it might be some time between Amano's 'agreement to sign an agreement' on Parchin and the agreement itself. The issue did come up at the broader nuclear talks in Baghdad last week, but like so much else, the context is shrouded in confusion. One participant at the talks told me Iran seemed to be asking for compensation for an IAEA deal in the form of sanctions relief. Another participant has since said that the chief Iranian negotiator, Saeed Jalili, seemed to want to separate the IAEA talks and the broader talks with six major powers, which will resume in Moscow next month. |
| Stocks in the Moscow talks are at a low ebb. On the plus side, the new American negotiator, Wendy Sherman, broke the ice with Jalili at Baghdad by engaging him in conversation at the end of a plenary session, I am told - a sort-of impromptu bilateral. And Jalili did say that Iran's enrichment of 20%-enriched uranium might be up for discussion. | Stocks in the Moscow talks are at a low ebb. On the plus side, the new American negotiator, Wendy Sherman, broke the ice with Jalili at Baghdad by engaging him in conversation at the end of a plenary session, I am told - a sort-of impromptu bilateral. And Jalili did say that Iran's enrichment of 20%-enriched uranium might be up for discussion. |
| On the minus side, Jalili and his team barely glanced at the P5+1 proposed confidence-building deal that was handed to them at the beginning of the talks, and did not refer to it directly for the rest of the Baghdad meeting. After expressing interest in a long-running uranium fuel swap proposal in the run-up to Baghdad, Jalili claimed at the meeting that Iran had no use for foreign uranium fuel plates for the Tehran research reactor because it had made its own. (The plates were shown to IAEA inspectors last year, but western officials doubt they were the real thing.) | On the minus side, Jalili and his team barely glanced at the P5+1 proposed confidence-building deal that was handed to them at the beginning of the talks, and did not refer to it directly for the rest of the Baghdad meeting. After expressing interest in a long-running uranium fuel swap proposal in the run-up to Baghdad, Jalili claimed at the meeting that Iran had no use for foreign uranium fuel plates for the Tehran research reactor because it had made its own. (The plates were shown to IAEA inspectors last year, but western officials doubt they were the real thing.) |
| President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad popped up yesterday to add to the negative vibes over Moscow. The talks are no longer Ahmadinejad's department since he lost a power-tussle with the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, last spring, but he no doubt has a sense of which way the wind is blowing. A better guide, however, may be Khamenei's speech on Sunday to commemorate the death of Ayatollah Khomeini. If he doesn't mention the nuclear talks, it will probably be bad news. And even if he does, it won't necessarily be good news. | President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad popped up yesterday to add to the negative vibes over Moscow. The talks are no longer Ahmadinejad's department since he lost a power-tussle with the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, last spring, but he no doubt has a sense of which way the wind is blowing. A better guide, however, may be Khamenei's speech on Sunday to commemorate the death of Ayatollah Khomeini. If he doesn't mention the nuclear talks, it will probably be bad news. And even if he does, it won't necessarily be good news. |
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