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Record low turnout predicted in Irish treaty vote Record low turnout predicted in Irish treaty vote
(about 6 hours later)
The fate of 27 European states and the single currency lies in the hands of less than half the Irish electorate after what appears to have been a historically low turnout in Ireland's referendum on the EU fiscal treaty.The fate of 27 European states and the single currency lies in the hands of less than half the Irish electorate after what appears to have been a historically low turnout in Ireland's referendum on the EU fiscal treaty.
As the first ballot boxes were opened at 9am, on Friday there were fears among the yes camp, particularly within the ruling coalition in Dublin, that a turnout of well below 50% might give a boost to the no side. Persistent rain throughout the day was among the factors blamed for keeping voters away from polling stations. After polling stations closed at 10pm, turnout in Dublin was estimated at 38%, but some of the north-western counties averaged as low as 20%. In the Cork area turnout was also described as slow through the day, but it picked up to more than 30% in the evening. The overall turnout is estimated to be close to 50% – one of the lowest in Irish history.
Judging by past referendums on EU treaties, it is the anti-European voters in Ireland who are more inclined to go out to polling stations. Counting of the ballot papers was due to start at 9am on Friday and there were fears among the yes camp that the low turnout would boost the no side. Persistent rain throughout the day was also blamed for keeping voters at home.
The two sides in the debate played on conflicting national emotions in the lead-up to the referendum. Fear was the dominant factor used by the yes campaign, with warnings from the taoiseach, Enda Kenny, that a rejection of the treaty would cut Ireland off from emergency EU funds and that the cost of borrowing on the international markets would triple as a result. Anti-European voters in Ireland are more inclined to go out to polling stations as evidenced by past referenda on EU treaties.
On the no side, a disparate range of forces, headed by a resurgent Sinn Fein, appealed to the anger within the republic over the austerity measures imposed by the EU and IMF. However, one government source, citing unnamed exit polls, said it would be a yes vote by a "safe margin". Other pro-yes sources struck a more cautious note predicting just a narrow victory.
A rejection of the treaty would send further shockwaves around an already highly unstable currency zone. The result should be clear by around 5 o'clock on Friday. Around 3.1 million voters were eligible to cast their ballot in favour of or against the EU fiscal compact, which binds all EU states into strict budgetary rules. The government and the pro-European Fianna Fáil party were banking on a final surge in voting as those with jobs went to polling stations on their way home. Fianna Fáil sources told the Guardian that the vote will be "very tight" with such a low turnout but the party expected a yes vote.
By five o'clock on Thursday evening, returning officers were recording turnouts of between 15% and 20% before the traditional teatime surge. Turnout in the critical electoral battleground of Dublin before teatime ranged from 6% to 12%. The two sides in the debate played on conflicting national emotions in the lead-up to the referendum. Fear was the dominant factor used by the yes campaign, with warnings from the taoiseach, Enda Kenny, that a rejection of the treaty would cut Ireland off from emergency EU funds and that the cost of borrowing on the international markets would triple as a result of a no vote.
Around 3.1 million voters were eligible to cast their ballot in favour of or against the EU fiscal compact, which binds all EU states into strict budgetary rules. The government and the pro-European Fianna Fáil party were banking last night on a final surge in voting as those with jobs went to polling stations on their way home. On the no side, a disparate range of forces, headed by a resurgent Sinn Féin, appealed to the anger within the republic over the austerity measures imposed by the EU and IMF.
The warning signs of a low turnout were evident even in usually pro-European constituencies. In Dun Laoghaire, which normally casts the highest yes vote in referendums on Europe, only around 10% of the electorate had voted by mid-afternoon on Thursday. Meanwhile, turnout in Enda Kenny's Mayo constituency was around 20%. A rejection of the treaty would send further shockwaves around an already highly unstable currency zone. The result should be clear by around 5pm on Friday.
Kenny used recent announcements of fresh foreign direct investment in the republic over the past few months as a reason to vote yes. The warning signs of a low turnout were evident even in usually pro-European constituencies. In Dun Laoghaire, which normally casts the highest yes vote in referendums on Europe, only around 10% of the electorate had voted by mid-afternoon. Meanwhile, turnout in Kenny's Mayo constituency was around 20%.
"I believe we can continue this flow of investment. In fact I believe we can accelerate it. That is, if we send out the message that Ireland is on the road to recovery, that we are a place of economic and budgetary stability, that there is certainty about our place in Europe and that we have guaranteed access to the insurance policy of the ESM should we ever need it," the taoiseach said. Kenny used recent announcements of fresh foreign direct investment in the republic over the past few months as a reason to vote yes. "I believe we can continue this flow of investment. In fact I believe we can accelerate it. That is, if we send out the message that Ireland is on the road to recovery, that we are a place of economic and budgetary stability, that there is certainty about our place in Europe and that we have guaranteed access to the insurance policy of the ESM [European Stability Mechanism – the EU's bailout fund] should we ever need it," the taoiseach said.
On the streets of central Dublin, the final hours of the campaign became acrimonious. The pro-Europe Labour party erected posters directly facing Sinn Fein's national headquarters reminding voters that the party of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness had voted for the bailout of Ireland's debt-laden banks in the autumn of 2010. Sinn Fein meanwhile used the campaign to raise its national profile and its standing in the opinion polls, where it has risen to second place. On the streets of central Dublin, the final hours of the campaign became acrimonious. The pro-Europe Labour party erected posters directly facing Sinn Féin's national headquarters reminding voters that the party of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness had voted for the bailout of Ireland's debt-laden banks in the autumn of 2010. Sinn Féin meanwhile used the campaign to raise its national profile and its standing in the opinion polls, where it has risen to second place.
There was early morning drama in the North Strand area of Dublin on Thursday when Irish army bomb disposal officers were called in to make safe a suspicious object found near the constituency office of Sinn Fein's Teachta Dála for Dublin, Mary Lou McDonald. A spokesman for the party later confirmed that the object had been an elaborate hoax designed to resemble a pipe bomb. There was early morning drama in the North Strand area of Dublin on Thursday when Irish army bomb disposal officers were called in to deal with a suspicious object found near the constituency office of Sinn Féin's representative for Dublin, Mary Lou McDonald. A party spokesman later confirmed that the object had been an elaborate hoax designed to resemble a pipe bomb.