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| Mubarak trial and troubled elections threaten to further divide Egypt | Mubarak trial and troubled elections threaten to further divide Egypt |
| (10 months later) | |
| It has been 491 days since Ahmed Bassiouni was murdered in the street – first shot, then run over by Egyptian security forces as they were beaten back by revolutionaries in late January 2011. | It has been 491 days since Ahmed Bassiouni was murdered in the street – first shot, then run over by Egyptian security forces as they were beaten back by revolutionaries in late January 2011. |
| For Bassiouni's friends and family, the wait for justice has been gruelling. "He was a musician, a visual artist and one of the most inspiring, talented teachers I have ever known," says Shady el-Noshokaty of his best friend and colleague. "When someone like that dies and yet their death seems to change nothing, even after more than a year ... No. We cannot accept such a situation." | For Bassiouni's friends and family, the wait for justice has been gruelling. "He was a musician, a visual artist and one of the most inspiring, talented teachers I have ever known," says Shady el-Noshokaty of his best friend and colleague. "When someone like that dies and yet their death seems to change nothing, even after more than a year ... No. We cannot accept such a situation." |
| On Saturday, 160 tanks and 20,000 police officers will surround a nondescript block in one of Cairo's eastern suburbs, where the man deemed responsible for Bassiouni's killing is to learn his fate. Prosecutors have demanded that Hosni Mubarak, the country's unassailable dictator for 30 years, be put to death for his alleged crimes, which include responsibility for the deaths of almost 1,000 pro-change demonstrators in a mass uprising against his rule last year, as well as a series of corrupt practices while in office. The defence have painted their client as a leader who was "clean and could say no wrong". | On Saturday, 160 tanks and 20,000 police officers will surround a nondescript block in one of Cairo's eastern suburbs, where the man deemed responsible for Bassiouni's killing is to learn his fate. Prosecutors have demanded that Hosni Mubarak, the country's unassailable dictator for 30 years, be put to death for his alleged crimes, which include responsibility for the deaths of almost 1,000 pro-change demonstrators in a mass uprising against his rule last year, as well as a series of corrupt practices while in office. The defence have painted their client as a leader who was "clean and could say no wrong". |
| The majority of Egyptians have never known a president other than Mubarak in their lifetimes. Now, live on television, they will watch in their tens of millions as the 84-year-old is freely and fairly held to account by judicial authorities that he appointed, in a building that – like so many others – once bore his name. | The majority of Egyptians have never known a president other than Mubarak in their lifetimes. Now, live on television, they will watch in their tens of millions as the 84-year-old is freely and fairly held to account by judicial authorities that he appointed, in a building that – like so many others – once bore his name. |
| That, at least, is the narrative being pushed by the junta, who were forced by popular protests to belatedly put their former commander-in-chief in the dock last August. But after elections that have left Egypt febrile and divided, the reality could prove very different. | That, at least, is the narrative being pushed by the junta, who were forced by popular protests to belatedly put their former commander-in-chief in the dock last August. But after elections that have left Egypt febrile and divided, the reality could prove very different. |
| This month, Ahmed Shafik, a close ally of Mubarak and the autocrat's final prime minister, will contest a runoff vote with Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party to establish who should replace him. | This month, Ahmed Shafik, a close ally of Mubarak and the autocrat's final prime minister, will contest a runoff vote with Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party to establish who should replace him. |
| Barely one in 10 of Egypt's eligible voters cast their ballot for Shafik in the first round, but low turnout, a pro-revolutionary vote that was fatally split between rival candidates, and what some commentators claim were electoral irregularities in Shafik's favour, have elevated to within a whisker of the presidency a man who perfectly embodies the repressive apparatus Egyptians revolted to overthrow. | Barely one in 10 of Egypt's eligible voters cast their ballot for Shafik in the first round, but low turnout, a pro-revolutionary vote that was fatally split between rival candidates, and what some commentators claim were electoral irregularities in Shafik's favour, have elevated to within a whisker of the presidency a man who perfectly embodies the repressive apparatus Egyptians revolted to overthrow. |
| After Shafik's triumph, Saturday's verdict has crystallised the worst fears of many – the ancién regime is back. | After Shafik's triumph, Saturday's verdict has crystallised the worst fears of many – the ancién regime is back. |
| "Mubarak's [ruling] NDP was never a political party in the real sense of the word," argues Hani Shukrallah, veteran journalist and editor-in-chief of Ahram Online | "Mubarak's [ruling] NDP was never a political party in the real sense of the word," argues Hani Shukrallah, veteran journalist and editor-in-chief of Ahram Online |
| "It was a giant network of state patronage, in which the intermarriage of money and power, businessmen and bureaucrats at the very top was replicated down to the remotest hamlet in the country. | "It was a giant network of state patronage, in which the intermarriage of money and power, businessmen and bureaucrats at the very top was replicated down to the remotest hamlet in the country. |
| "In the parliamentary elections [which ran from November to January and delivered a strong victory for political Islamists] that network was in total disarray, but now they've been able to organise themselves again. | "In the parliamentary elections [which ran from November to January and delivered a strong victory for political Islamists] that network was in total disarray, but now they've been able to organise themselves again. |
| "Just like old times they are preying on fears of violence and chaos, pushing for confrontation in an effort to ensure the Egyptian people tire of revolution and welcome a return to 'stability'. If Mubarak is found innocent – and I don't believe we will see a conviction, particularly not on the unlawful killing charges – the violence is going to intensify." | "Just like old times they are preying on fears of violence and chaos, pushing for confrontation in an effort to ensure the Egyptian people tire of revolution and welcome a return to 'stability'. If Mubarak is found innocent – and I don't believe we will see a conviction, particularly not on the unlawful killing charges – the violence is going to intensify." |
| Like many observers, Shukrallah believes the case against Mubarak has been poorly made: crucial evidence has disappeared, giving the judge ample excuse to hand down a light sentence or even acquit the former leader altogether. | Like many observers, Shukrallah believes the case against Mubarak has been poorly made: crucial evidence has disappeared, giving the judge ample excuse to hand down a light sentence or even acquit the former leader altogether. |
| Some suspect the NDP and military will engineer a 'soft' guilty verdict in an effort to assuage public anger and maximise Shafik's electoral chances, while others predict Mubarak will be set free in the hope that street clashes will ensue, draining popular support from the revolution. There is also talk of a deliberate delay in the verdict, until after the presidential poll. It is hard to find anyone who thinks the case will be decided on its legal merit. | Some suspect the NDP and military will engineer a 'soft' guilty verdict in an effort to assuage public anger and maximise Shafik's electoral chances, while others predict Mubarak will be set free in the hope that street clashes will ensue, draining popular support from the revolution. There is also talk of a deliberate delay in the verdict, until after the presidential poll. It is hard to find anyone who thinks the case will be decided on its legal merit. |
| Egypt's revolutionaries are not waiting to find out. In an echo of the early days of the anti-Mubarak uprising, Shafik billboards and posters have been defaced with paint, urine and the Arabic word feloul, meaning "remnant" of the old regime. | Egypt's revolutionaries are not waiting to find out. In an echo of the early days of the anti-Mubarak uprising, Shafik billboards and posters have been defaced with paint, urine and the Arabic word feloul, meaning "remnant" of the old regime. |
| Earlier this week, eight different regional Shafik campaign centres were attacked, with the Cairo headquarters being set ablaze in an eerie echo of the NDP's Nile-side headquarters, which was torched on the evening of 28 January 2011, the day Ahmed Bassiouni died. Conspiracy theories abound over who was behind the assaults, but the result has been a sense of mounting tension and a regime versus the revolution showdown ahead of the Mubarak verdict, which one local media outlet described as potentially the "final knife in the revolution's back". | Earlier this week, eight different regional Shafik campaign centres were attacked, with the Cairo headquarters being set ablaze in an eerie echo of the NDP's Nile-side headquarters, which was torched on the evening of 28 January 2011, the day Ahmed Bassiouni died. Conspiracy theories abound over who was behind the assaults, but the result has been a sense of mounting tension and a regime versus the revolution showdown ahead of the Mubarak verdict, which one local media outlet described as potentially the "final knife in the revolution's back". |
| It is all a far cry from the moment Mubarak was first wheeled into court nine months ago, in what was viewed at the time as a hammer blow to a crumbling political model of patriarchal authority that has dominated the Middle East for decades. | It is all a far cry from the moment Mubarak was first wheeled into court nine months ago, in what was viewed at the time as a hammer blow to a crumbling political model of patriarchal authority that has dominated the Middle East for decades. |
| Since the trial began, opposition has grown steadily from other Arab autocrats – not least the kingdoms of the Gulf, who fear a precedent of holding leaders to account is in danger of being set. "Egypt may have been a republic in name but it was always a de facto monarchy and was treated as such by the rest of the world," says Bassem Sabry, a popular Egyptian blogger and political analyst. | Since the trial began, opposition has grown steadily from other Arab autocrats – not least the kingdoms of the Gulf, who fear a precedent of holding leaders to account is in danger of being set. "Egypt may have been a republic in name but it was always a de facto monarchy and was treated as such by the rest of the world," says Bassem Sabry, a popular Egyptian blogger and political analyst. |
| "Mubarak sat there on the same tables with the Saudis, Kuwaitis and everyone else as an equal – the untouchable supreme leader for life – and the very fact he was put on trial with his sons [against whom fresh economic fraud charges were filed this week], the fact that they were even placed behind bars, regardless of the eventual verdict, that itself is a cataclysmic development." | "Mubarak sat there on the same tables with the Saudis, Kuwaitis and everyone else as an equal – the untouchable supreme leader for life – and the very fact he was put on trial with his sons [against whom fresh economic fraud charges were filed this week], the fact that they were even placed behind bars, regardless of the eventual verdict, that itself is a cataclysmic development." |
| But for revolutionaries like El-Noshokaty, a more immediate fight looms. "Mubarak must be tried and convicted, and justice must be done. But this verdict, whichever way it goes, is only the start," he explains. "A plan has been executed against us and we must now start organising, directing the revolution against Shafik and towards a post-Shafik future. That means returning to the streets, returning to [Tahrir] square. Whatever they do to Mubarak, it will mobilise us." | But for revolutionaries like El-Noshokaty, a more immediate fight looms. "Mubarak must be tried and convicted, and justice must be done. But this verdict, whichever way it goes, is only the start," he explains. "A plan has been executed against us and we must now start organising, directing the revolution against Shafik and towards a post-Shafik future. That means returning to the streets, returning to [Tahrir] square. Whatever they do to Mubarak, it will mobilise us." |
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