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French election: Socialists and allies 'set for win' French election: Socialists and allies 'set for win'
(40 minutes later)
President Francois Hollande's Socialists and their allies are set for a majority following the first round of voting in French legislative elections, exit polls suggest.President Francois Hollande's Socialists and their allies are set for a majority following the first round of voting in French legislative elections, exit polls suggest.
The Socialists appear tied with the right-wing UMP party on about 35% of the vote, but the support of Green allies gives them closer to 40%.The Socialists appear tied with the right-wing UMP party on about 35% of the vote, but the support of Green allies gives them closer to 40%.
The outcome of the polls is expected to determine the extent and pace of reform under the newly-elected French leader.The outcome of the polls is expected to determine the extent and pace of reform under the newly-elected French leader.
Run-offs are to be held a week later.Run-offs are to be held a week later.
The early indications are that turnout has been much lower than in the presidential elections in April, at about 60%.The early indications are that turnout has been much lower than in the presidential elections in April, at about 60%.
France's 46 million eligible voters are picking representatives for 577 seats in the National Assembly.France's 46 million eligible voters are picking representatives for 577 seats in the National Assembly.
TNS Sofres, Ipsos and OpinonWay pollsters all agreed that the political left, including the Communist-backed Left Front, would win at least 289 seats in the 577-seat Assembly and possibly as many as 368 seats.TNS Sofres, Ipsos and OpinonWay pollsters all agreed that the political left, including the Communist-backed Left Front, would win at least 289 seats in the 577-seat Assembly and possibly as many as 368 seats.
When you look at the left bloc as a whole, they have more support than the right, they will have a majority in the new parliament and that will ensure that Mr Hollande can force through the ambitious tax and spend policies that he has set out.When you look at the left bloc as a whole, they have more support than the right, they will have a majority in the new parliament and that will ensure that Mr Hollande can force through the ambitious tax and spend policies that he has set out.
There is certainly a downturn in support for the conservative UMP. It is a symbolic win for the left, they hold the Senate, key regional administrations and now also the lower assembly so he has considerable power to push through these reforms.There is certainly a downturn in support for the conservative UMP. It is a symbolic win for the left, they hold the Senate, key regional administrations and now also the lower assembly so he has considerable power to push through these reforms.
It is a win for Mr Hollande, but not perhaps as big a win - symbolically - as he might have wanted. He is only neck and neck with the UMP - and will need the support of allies on the left and, perhaps, even the support of the Left Front, the far-left party.It is a win for Mr Hollande, but not perhaps as big a win - symbolically - as he might have wanted. He is only neck and neck with the UMP - and will need the support of allies on the left and, perhaps, even the support of the Left Front, the far-left party.
They are eurosceptic and anti-globalisation and could cause problems for him, particularly when it comes to spending cuts that he will have to enact if he is to meet the promises he set out to Brussels and to the German Chancellor Angela Merkel.They are eurosceptic and anti-globalisation and could cause problems for him, particularly when it comes to spending cuts that he will have to enact if he is to meet the promises he set out to Brussels and to the German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The election also saw a surge in support for Marine Le Pen's far right National Front, which won almost 14% of votes.The election also saw a surge in support for Marine Le Pen's far right National Front, which won almost 14% of votes.
The BBC's Christian Fraser, in Paris, cautions that these are predictions rather than hard results and it is hard to predict accurately what the final tallies will be before next week's decisive round of voting. The BBC's Christian Fraser, in Paris, cautions that these are predictions rather than hard results and it is hard to predict accurately what the final tallies will be before next week's decisive round of voting. In many constituencies there will be a three way run-off.
But with the Senate already under the control of the Socialists, it appears that Mr Hollande will also have a majority in the lower house - even if only with the support of allies - which would give him unprecedented power to force through his reform programme.But with the Senate already under the control of the Socialists, it appears that Mr Hollande will also have a majority in the lower house - even if only with the support of allies - which would give him unprecedented power to force through his reform programme.
Mr Hollande's government is due to present a revised budget plan to parliament next month.Mr Hollande's government is due to present a revised budget plan to parliament next month.
The result of the parliamentary election will determine the pace of reform and how radical it becomes, our correspondent says.The result of the parliamentary election will determine the pace of reform and how radical it becomes, our correspondent says.
"It's a good result tonight... but we have to remain mobilised for the second round," Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, an influential Socialist, was quoted by news agency AP as saying."It's a good result tonight... but we have to remain mobilised for the second round," Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, an influential Socialist, was quoted by news agency AP as saying.
The National Front's predicted vote share was well above the 4% it got in the 2007 parliamentary elections.The National Front's predicted vote share was well above the 4% it got in the 2007 parliamentary elections.
It was a big night for Ms Le Pen on a personal level, our correspondent says.It was a big night for Ms Le Pen on a personal level, our correspondent says.
The firebrand leader of the hard left Jean Luc Melenchon had challenged Madame Le Pen for the seat in the nothern town of Henin Beaumont. In the end he finished third and last night withdrew from the second round race.The firebrand leader of the hard left Jean Luc Melenchon had challenged Madame Le Pen for the seat in the nothern town of Henin Beaumont. In the end he finished third and last night withdrew from the second round race.
The far right has not held any seats in parliament since the 1980s. The electoral system may yet deny them a seat - but, adds our correspondent, the National Front is now by some margin the third biggest party in French politics.The far right has not held any seats in parliament since the 1980s. The electoral system may yet deny them a seat - but, adds our correspondent, the National Front is now by some margin the third biggest party in French politics.