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| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| The European countdown | The European countdown |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| Article written by Gavin Hewitt Europe editor | |
| Europe is on edge, its leaders nervous and divided. The days ahead are full of uncertainty. | Europe is on edge, its leaders nervous and divided. The days ahead are full of uncertainty. |
| On Sunday the Greeks vote in an election that could determine whether Greece stays in the euro. Friday is the last day of campaigning | On Sunday the Greeks vote in an election that could determine whether Greece stays in the euro. Friday is the last day of campaigning |
| The attention remains on 37 year-old Alexis Tsipras, the radical leftist leader of Syrizia. | The attention remains on 37 year-old Alexis Tsipras, the radical leftist leader of Syrizia. |
| He is a young politician who has come from obscurity to challenge the terms of the bail-out deal drawn up by Brussels and the International Monetary Fund. It has made him the anti-austerity candidate. | He is a young politician who has come from obscurity to challenge the terms of the bail-out deal drawn up by Brussels and the International Monetary Fund. It has made him the anti-austerity candidate. |
| If successful he has threatened to tear up the deal, which could risk Greece leaving the single currency. | If successful he has threatened to tear up the deal, which could risk Greece leaving the single currency. |
| But Mr Tsipras insists he can reject the austerity conditions attached to the bail-out deal and stay in the euro. | But Mr Tsipras insists he can reject the austerity conditions attached to the bail-out deal and stay in the euro. |
| At his last meeting in a central square in Athens he denounced the bail-out memorandum. | At his last meeting in a central square in Athens he denounced the bail-out memorandum. |
| "No to the memorandum of bankruptcy!" he said, "yes to the euro and to a national plan for economic recovery that will protect the people from bankruptcy". | "No to the memorandum of bankruptcy!" he said, "yes to the euro and to a national plan for economic recovery that will protect the people from bankruptcy". |
| Brinkmanship | Brinkmanship |
| He accused the two main Greek parties of looting the country and handing over the national flag to the German chancellor. | He accused the two main Greek parties of looting the country and handing over the national flag to the German chancellor. |
| His core message is this: "Greece has been a European and international experiment, and the Greek people have been the guinea pigs. In the past two years we have suffered a social catastrophe." | His core message is this: "Greece has been a European and international experiment, and the Greek people have been the guinea pigs. In the past two years we have suffered a social catastrophe." |
| He believes he can persuade Europe's leaders to scrap the old deal and re-negotiate another. Europe is saying "don't count on it". | He believes he can persuade Europe's leaders to scrap the old deal and re-negotiate another. Europe is saying "don't count on it". |
| There is no appetite for a full-scale negotiation and without the bail-out funds Greece will face bankruptcy. | There is no appetite for a full-scale negotiation and without the bail-out funds Greece will face bankruptcy. |
| The French president has warned Greeks: "There are countries in the euro-zone which would prefer to end Greece's presence in the euro-zone." | The French president has warned Greeks: "There are countries in the euro-zone which would prefer to end Greece's presence in the euro-zone." |
| So, if Syrizia does well, it will come down to who will blink first. Alexis Tsipras believes that Europe's will bend, fearing a Greek exit more than bargaining with him. | So, if Syrizia does well, it will come down to who will blink first. Alexis Tsipras believes that Europe's will bend, fearing a Greek exit more than bargaining with him. |
| He has been encouraged by the bail-out of Spain's banks. "We will vote on Sunday with our eyes on Spain," he said. | He has been encouraged by the bail-out of Spain's banks. "We will vote on Sunday with our eyes on Spain," he said. |
| "It negotiated and succeeded despite the lenders' threats and blackmail. It is still in the euro, without an austerity plan." | "It negotiated and succeeded despite the lenders' threats and blackmail. It is still in the euro, without an austerity plan." |
| The polls indicate that Syrizia is neck and neck with New Democracy, a centre-right party led by Antonis Samaras which supports the bail-out deal with the EU and IMF although will seek concessions if they win. | The polls indicate that Syrizia is neck and neck with New Democracy, a centre-right party led by Antonis Samaras which supports the bail-out deal with the EU and IMF although will seek concessions if they win. |
| European divisions | European divisions |
| Many Greeks have heard the dire warnings of instability and chaos that would follow a departure from the euro. | Many Greeks have heard the dire warnings of instability and chaos that would follow a departure from the euro. |
| Those fears may work to Mr Samaras's advantage. He accepts the basis of the bail-out deal but believes concessions can be won. Fear may be a key factor in the vote on Sunday. | Those fears may work to Mr Samaras's advantage. He accepts the basis of the bail-out deal but believes concessions can be won. Fear may be a key factor in the vote on Sunday. |
| If Mr Samaras were to succeed there would be relief in Europe, but he would have to convince the markets that he could govern effectively in the face of possible widespread protests and disruption. | If Mr Samaras were to succeed there would be relief in Europe, but he would have to convince the markets that he could govern effectively in the face of possible widespread protests and disruption. |
| Uncertainty over Greece is helping force up the borrowing costs for Spain and Italy. One of the major concerns of investors is that by agreeing a bail-out deal for its banks, Spain has increased its debts whilst the economy is in recession. | Uncertainty over Greece is helping force up the borrowing costs for Spain and Italy. One of the major concerns of investors is that by agreeing a bail-out deal for its banks, Spain has increased its debts whilst the economy is in recession. |
| The leaders of Spain and Italy increasingly argue that salvation can only come at a European level. | The leaders of Spain and Italy increasingly argue that salvation can only come at a European level. |
| Once again European divisions have been on display. French President Francois Hollande was visiting Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti on Thursday. | Once again European divisions have been on display. French President Francois Hollande was visiting Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti on Thursday. |
| They seemed determined to send not-very-coded messages to Berlin. Budget discipline should not come at the expense of economic growth said the Italian prime minister. Again they argued that "public account discipline" was not enough to build growth and create jobs. | They seemed determined to send not-very-coded messages to Berlin. Budget discipline should not come at the expense of economic growth said the Italian prime minister. Again they argued that "public account discipline" was not enough to build growth and create jobs. |
| Mario Monti even pointed out that Italy and France contributed 40% of the eurozone' s bailout funds and so, by implication, should be listened to. | Mario Monti even pointed out that Italy and France contributed 40% of the eurozone' s bailout funds and so, by implication, should be listened to. |
| The French president wants a banking union with a joint guarantee of deposits and a joint fund to pay down debt. | The French president wants a banking union with a joint guarantee of deposits and a joint fund to pay down debt. |
| He wants the bloc's permanent rescue fund (the ESM) to be given a banking license so it can borrow directly from the European Central Bank. | He wants the bloc's permanent rescue fund (the ESM) to be given a banking license so it can borrow directly from the European Central Bank. |
| The Italian prime minister favours euro-bonds, common debt. | The Italian prime minister favours euro-bonds, common debt. |
| 'Moments of truth' | 'Moments of truth' |
| Many of these ideas are rejected by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. Her reply was that "Germany is strong, Germany is an engine of economic growth and a stability anchor in Europe. But Germany's powers are not unlimited". | Many of these ideas are rejected by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. Her reply was that "Germany is strong, Germany is an engine of economic growth and a stability anchor in Europe. But Germany's powers are not unlimited". |
| She is not prepared for Germany to become the paymaster of Europe. She said that those clamouring for Germany to "pour billions into euro-bonds, stability funds, European bank deposit guarantee funds" wanted a quick crisis fix that was unsustainable. | She is not prepared for Germany to become the paymaster of Europe. She said that those clamouring for Germany to "pour billions into euro-bonds, stability funds, European bank deposit guarantee funds" wanted a quick crisis fix that was unsustainable. |
| That persuaded the French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, in an apparent reference to the German chancellor, to say that "the situation in Europe is sufficiently critical not to give in to simplistic talk". | That persuaded the French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, in an apparent reference to the German chancellor, to say that "the situation in Europe is sufficiently critical not to give in to simplistic talk". |
| So two moments of truth are approaching. | So two moments of truth are approaching. |
| Will Greece gamble that Europe will agree to easier terms on its bail-out or will it go along with a rescue package that brings with it years of painful austerity? | Will Greece gamble that Europe will agree to easier terms on its bail-out or will it go along with a rescue package that brings with it years of painful austerity? |
| Secondly, will Germany - under relentless pressure - accept it will have to pay more to ensure the euro's survival? | Secondly, will Germany - under relentless pressure - accept it will have to pay more to ensure the euro's survival? |
| Angela Merkel believes there will have to be a political union in the eurozone but will she tell the German people they will have to contribute much more to save the currency? | Angela Merkel believes there will have to be a political union in the eurozone but will she tell the German people they will have to contribute much more to save the currency? |
| The days ahead will provide some answers. An analyst from CMC markets said: "We're at a tipping point. You either have to deliver or disband." | The days ahead will provide some answers. An analyst from CMC markets said: "We're at a tipping point. You either have to deliver or disband." |