David Cameron told to expect heavy defeat on House of Lords reform

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jun/20/david-cameon-defeat-lords-reform

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David Cameron has been told by the government's chief whip that he is on course to suffer a heavy defeat on House of Lords reform, threatening to "gum up" the government's entire legislative programme until the next election.

In a sign of the collapse in relations between Downing Street and large sections of the Conservative parliamentary party, more than 100 Tory MPs have indicated to the whips that they are prepared to rebel. "This is visceral for many Tories," one MPs said.

Patrick McLoughlin, the chief whip, warned Downing Street that the government is heading for a defeat after a series of parliamentary aides indicated in private that they will resign when MPs are asked to vote on the House of Lords reform bill in three weeks' time. It is estimated that as many 110 Tory MPs will rebel, dwarfing the rebellion of last October on whether to hold a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU.

The Tory rebels are confident of defeating the government because Labour, which favours lords reform, is indicating that it will vote against the "programme motion" when the bill is debated in the week before the Commons rises for the summer recess on 17 July.

If the government loses the "programme motion" then it will have no power to limit debate on the bill by imposing "guillotine" motions. The measure has to be considered at all stages on the floor of the Commons, which means that the government's entire legislative programme would be severely disrupted.

One well placed Tory said: "If the programme motion does not go through the government's whole legislative business will be gummed up for the rest of the parliament. Colleagues do feel very strongly about it. A few PPSs [parliamentary private secretaries] will resign."

Nick Clegg will present the Lords reform bill, which would introduce a mainly elected second chamber, to the cabinet next week. The bill is due to be published by the end of the month ahead of votes on the second reading and the "programme motion" in mid-July.

Cameron has delayed his government reshuffle in part to try and minimise the rebellion, which has been prompted by genuine unease about introducing a wholly elected second chamber and anger over Liberal Democrat tactics in recent weeks. Peter Bone, a rightwing Tory MP, highlighted this on Wednesday when he called for "a divorce from the yellow peril" after Clegg ordered his MPs not to support Jeremy Hunt in a vote last week

.One senior Tory said: "The reshuffle has been delayed. You don't want to have the vote when you have the aggrieved, who have been sacked in a reshuffle, and the disappointed who have not been appointed, joining forces. That is a dangerous combination."

Cameron is adamant that he has to deliver for the Lib Dems. One aide said: "We must show good faith to the Lib Dems. We will bend over backwards to push this through."

The bill has been presented to the "coalition committee", which is designed to hammer out differences in government between the Tories and Lib Dems. Cameron is examining changes in three areas to try and minimise the rebellion:

• The "dreaded" clause two, which deals with the primacy of the commons, is being amended because it is currently a "complete mess", according to Tories. One source said: "At the moment it just says keep things as they are. But you have to strengthen this if you are electing the second chamber. So the Parliament Act, [which allows MPs to push legislation rejected by the Lords] will be strengthened. We are looking at codifying the Salisbury convention [which says the Lords cannot reject manifesto commitments of governing parties].

• An original plan to elect the house on the proportional representation single transferable vote (STV) system has been dropped. Ministers are now examining whether to hold elections on the same day as the general election. This could involve a separate vote or using the votes cast for the Commons and then weighting them to give a more proportional result.

• A clause to subject the changes to a referendum may be inserted, though there are fears this would be seized on by eurosceptics to demand a referendum on the EU.

There is anger, even among supporters of the prime minister, that the bill has gone to the coalition committee where the two parties have equal numbers. One MP said: "One of the problems is that bill hasn't gone to the relevant cabinet committee. It went to the coalition committee. That is five and five – so equal numbers. We need to remind the Lib Dems we are the majority shareholder. They only have 15% of the shares."

Downing Street knows Ed Miliband has the power to decide the fate of the bill. It is expected that he will ask his MPs to vote against the government on the "programme motion" and then to vote in favour of the second reading of the bill if a series of conditions are met:

• A referendum. Miliband would like to deliver on the Labour commitment in its manifesto for the last election to hold a referendum.

• Clarification of the powers of new second house. One MP said: "It would be wrong to press ahead with changes to the composition of the second house without clarifying its powers."

One Tory was surprised by Labour's tactics. "I can't understand their tactics. Surely they should vote for the programme motion, and get the bill in the Lords, where it would cause havoc."