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Egypt protests ahead of election results - live updates | Egypt protests ahead of election results - live updates |
(40 minutes later) | |
11.02am: Syria: US defence secretary Leon Panetta (left) has implicitly acknowledged that some countries are providing lethal aid to the Syrian opposition. | |
In an interview yesterday, he said the US had "made a decision not to provide lethal assistance at this point" but added: "I know others have made their own decisions." | |
While insisting that "it's very important right now that everybody focus on a smooth and responsible political transition," he also appeared not to rule out US provision of lethal assistance in the future. | |
Yesterday, it was reported that CIA officers in Turkey are "helping allies decide which Syrian opposition fighters across the border will receive arms". | |
So far, Gulf states have not specifically said they are arming the opposition. Last April they said they would channel funds to the Syrian National Council to pay fighters in the Free Syrian Army and those who dared to defect from the Assad regime. | |
10.45am: Egypt: The Muslim Brotherhood has urged Ahmed Shafiq to concede defeat in the presidential election. | |
Essam El-Erian, vice-chairman of Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, said the sit-in in Tahrir Square would continue until parliament is reinstated. | |
In an interview with al-Jazeera he said: "The parliament was elected by the will of the people, and the will of the people must be respected. On the other hand, the constitutional court ruling does not mean the dissolution of parliament. Therefore, we're saying 'We are in liberty square, until parliament returns'. The court's ruling is limited to individual seats only. Parliament is quite capable of dealing with this decision." | |
Mukhtar Ashri, chairman of the FJP's legal committee, urged the election commission to announce the results today. | |
Shafiq is in no mood to concede. "I am confident I'll be the rightful winnerr. And d wait for word the election commission," he said at a press conference last night. | |
10.29am: Egypt: Protests are under way but this is not a new revolution, argues Cairo-based analyst Eric Trager from the Washington Institute. | |
The youth activists are likely to overreach: They will overstate their public support, make their demands too high, push for them too hard, and - sadly - be targeted for the most violent response. | |
The Brotherhood, on the other hand, may already be hedging its bets: It is reportedly negotiating with the SCAF. So despite the Brotherhood's talk about "completing the revolution," it could back down at any moment - presumably, as long as it's given the share of power it has long sought .... | |
The protests are not affecting anything beyond Tahrir Square, and there is a large segment of the Egyptian public that opposes them - at least in form, if not in substance. The next stage of Egypt's post-Mubarak transition will thus likely be a sustained confrontation between the Scaf on one hand and an uncomfortable coalition of revolutionary youth activists and Islamists on the other. There may be moments of intense violence, and others of negotiated calm. But unless these demonstrations are capable of capturing the broader public, they will likely be a much more contained affair than last year's revolution. | |
10.17am: Syria/Israel: A Syrian man has been detained by Israeli forces after crossing the fence into the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, al-Jazeera reports. | 10.17am: Syria/Israel: A Syrian man has been detained by Israeli forces after crossing the fence into the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, al-Jazeera reports. |
It appears that the man is currently being treated as "an infiltrator" rather than a refugee from the Assad regime. Ynetnews says: | It appears that the man is currently being treated as "an infiltrator" rather than a refugee from the Assad regime. Ynetnews says: |
Sources in the defence establishment said this is not the first time this year that a Syrian citizen tries to infiltrate Israel via the Golan Heights. | Sources in the defence establishment said this is not the first time this year that a Syrian citizen tries to infiltrate Israel via the Golan Heights. |
Defence officials recently estimated that clashes in Syria could spill over to the border area and conjectured that Syrians may seek refuge in Israel. | Defence officials recently estimated that clashes in Syria could spill over to the border area and conjectured that Syrians may seek refuge in Israel. |
10.11am: Syria: The number of people needing humanitarian assistance has risen to 1.5m from the previous estimate of 1m, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said today. | 10.11am: Syria: The number of people needing humanitarian assistance has risen to 1.5m from the previous estimate of 1m, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said today. |
The World Food Programme had distributed food to 461,000 Syrians by mid-June and aims to increase that number to 850,000 in July, officials said. | The World Food Programme had distributed food to 461,000 Syrians by mid-June and aims to increase that number to 850,000 in July, officials said. |
Robert Watkins, UN Development Programme representative in neighbouring Lebanon, told Reuters: | Robert Watkins, UN Development Programme representative in neighbouring Lebanon, told Reuters: |
Increasing violence has made it extremely difficult to establish the field presence so important for ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid. Humanitarian deliveries do continue, however, though not at the pace we had hoped and as required by the needs. | Increasing violence has made it extremely difficult to establish the field presence so important for ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid. Humanitarian deliveries do continue, however, though not at the pace we had hoped and as required by the needs. |
10.00am: Egypt: The Economist calls on the US to use its sizeable military subsidy as leverage to persuade the military council to hand over power. | 10.00am: Egypt: The Economist calls on the US to use its sizeable military subsidy as leverage to persuade the military council to hand over power. |
The generals thrive on American aid and are plainly nervous about seizing untrammelled power. By pressing them to negotiate with Morsi over a constitution to provide for a new parliament, the United States and Europe could tip the balance in democracy's favour. | The generals thrive on American aid and are plainly nervous about seizing untrammelled power. By pressing them to negotiate with Morsi over a constitution to provide for a new parliament, the United States and Europe could tip the balance in democracy's favour. |
In her interview with Charlie Rose, Hillary Clinton hinted that the US did not want to scupper Egypt's peace treaty with Israel by pushing the generals too hard. | In her interview with Charlie Rose, Hillary Clinton hinted that the US did not want to scupper Egypt's peace treaty with Israel by pushing the generals too hard. |
The military has to assume an appropriate role, which is not to try to interfere with, dominate, or subvert the constitutional authority. They have to get a constitution written. There's a lot of work ahead of them. | The military has to assume an appropriate role, which is not to try to interfere with, dominate, or subvert the constitutional authority. They have to get a constitution written. There's a lot of work ahead of them. |
We also believe it is very much in Egypt's interest, while they're facing political turmoil and economic difficulties, to honour the peace treaty with Israel. The last thing they need is to make a decision that would undermine their stability. And furthermore, we think it's important that they reassert law and order over the Sinai, which is becoming a large, lawless area, and that they take seriously the internal threats from extremists and terrorists. So they have a lot ahead of them. | We also believe it is very much in Egypt's interest, while they're facing political turmoil and economic difficulties, to honour the peace treaty with Israel. The last thing they need is to make a decision that would undermine their stability. And furthermore, we think it's important that they reassert law and order over the Sinai, which is becoming a large, lawless area, and that they take seriously the internal threats from extremists and terrorists. So they have a lot ahead of them. |
9.50am: Egypt: The BBC has a useful guide to what happens next if Shafiq or Morsi wins the election. Here's a summary version, including an intriguing third option: | 9.50am: Egypt: The BBC has a useful guide to what happens next if Shafiq or Morsi wins the election. Here's a summary version, including an intriguing third option: |
If Shafiq wins | If Shafiq wins |
The Brotherhood will take advantage of the enmity the revolutionaries have towards the military rulers, whom it suspects of wanting to remain in power with Mr Shafiq as their front man. | The Brotherhood will take advantage of the enmity the revolutionaries have towards the military rulers, whom it suspects of wanting to remain in power with Mr Shafiq as their front man. |
There are fears that the situation could turn violent, like in Algeria where an estimated 150,000 people died in the years after the 1992 elections were scrapped when it became clear that the Islamists had won. | There are fears that the situation could turn violent, like in Algeria where an estimated 150,000 people died in the years after the 1992 elections were scrapped when it became clear that the Islamists had won. |
However, the Brotherhood has been trying to play down this scenario. | However, the Brotherhood has been trying to play down this scenario. |
If Morsi wins | If Morsi wins |
While there may not be a major reaction to a Morsi victory on the streets, there is likely to be a confrontation at a different level: between Mr Mursi and what is now called the "deep state". | While there may not be a major reaction to a Morsi victory on the streets, there is likely to be a confrontation at a different level: between Mr Mursi and what is now called the "deep state". |
The army has already secured complete control over its own affairs, limited the president's powers and ensured a future role in drafting the new constitution. | The army has already secured complete control over its own affairs, limited the president's powers and ensured a future role in drafting the new constitution. |
A third scenario | A third scenario |
Although people are expecting an imminent announcement of the election result, an unexpected scenario could unfold: cancellation of the results and a re-run of the elections, at least in some provinces. | Although people are expecting an imminent announcement of the election result, an unexpected scenario could unfold: cancellation of the results and a re-run of the elections, at least in some provinces. |
Farouq Sultan, the head of the election commission, has reportedly said that as many as a million votes could be invalid. | Farouq Sultan, the head of the election commission, has reportedly said that as many as a million votes could be invalid. |
9.32am: Egypt: There are lots of tents and a few thousand people gathered in Tahrir Square, according to this video recorded within the last few minutes. | 9.32am: Egypt: There are lots of tents and a few thousand people gathered in Tahrir Square, according to this video recorded within the last few minutes. |
This is nothing like the turnout witnessed during last year's revolution. | This is nothing like the turnout witnessed during last year's revolution. |
9.28am: Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood supporters believe the generals won't accept an Islamist president, the BBC's Kevin Connolly reports from Cairo. | 9.28am: Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood supporters believe the generals won't accept an Islamist president, the BBC's Kevin Connolly reports from Cairo. |
One told him: "The army is trying to steal our revolution". | One told him: "The army is trying to steal our revolution". |
9.10am: Syria: The "apocalyptic wasteland" of Homs is captured in a 10-minute video highlighted by the Atlantic. | 9.10am: Syria: The "apocalyptic wasteland" of Homs is captured in a 10-minute video highlighted by the Atlantic. |
The graphic and unverified footage portrays a 10-minute foot and motorbike journey into "Syria's heart of darkness", Atlantic's Max Fisher says. | The graphic and unverified footage portrays a 10-minute foot and motorbike journey into "Syria's heart of darkness", Atlantic's Max Fisher says. |
The streets are mostly empty and totally silent, save for a distant but steady stream of gunshots. At one point, the videographer finds a group of young men – the only people we see are young men, everyone else appears to have fled or hidden in the few still-habitable homes – evacuating, from the back of a sedan to the bed of a pickup truck, a wounded and obviously terrified rebel fighter. | The streets are mostly empty and totally silent, save for a distant but steady stream of gunshots. At one point, the videographer finds a group of young men – the only people we see are young men, everyone else appears to have fled or hidden in the few still-habitable homes – evacuating, from the back of a sedan to the bed of a pickup truck, a wounded and obviously terrified rebel fighter. |
Somehow, it's the scenes with no action at all that are the most unnerving: a long row of burned-out cars, streets blanketed with cinderblocks blown out of neighbouring buildings, a complete dining room set perched in what remains of a third-floor apartment and totally exposed after the ceiling and wall have been destroyed, presumably by the Syrian government's near-constant shelling of this city of 750,000 people. | Somehow, it's the scenes with no action at all that are the most unnerving: a long row of burned-out cars, streets blanketed with cinderblocks blown out of neighbouring buildings, a complete dining room set perched in what remains of a third-floor apartment and totally exposed after the ceiling and wall have been destroyed, presumably by the Syrian government's near-constant shelling of this city of 750,000 people. |
8.43am: (all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live. | 8.43am: (all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live. |
Here's a roundup of the latest developments: | Here's a roundup of the latest developments: |
Egypt | Egypt |
• The Muslim Brotherhood started a sit-in ahead of a widely-backed planned protest in Tahrir Square today to reject last week's decision by parliament, and this week's delay in the announcement of the presidential election results. Several other parties and revolutionary groups are supporting the protests including the Salafist al-Nour party, the April 6th Movement, and the Revolutionary Socialists, Ahram reports. | • The Muslim Brotherhood started a sit-in ahead of a widely-backed planned protest in Tahrir Square today to reject last week's decision by parliament, and this week's delay in the announcement of the presidential election results. Several other parties and revolutionary groups are supporting the protests including the Salafist al-Nour party, the April 6th Movement, and the Revolutionary Socialists, Ahram reports. |
• Former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq says he is certain that he won the election, the Egypt Independent reports. But he refused to give figures ahead of the official announcement expected this weekend. He said: "I am sure that all the world leaders will deal with the winner, and history will not forgive any foreign power that tries to interfere in the voters' decision. I call upon all Egyptians ot co-operate for the sake of Egypt. I extend my hand to everyone." | • Former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq says he is certain that he won the election, the Egypt Independent reports. But he refused to give figures ahead of the official announcement expected this weekend. He said: "I am sure that all the world leaders will deal with the winner, and history will not forgive any foreign power that tries to interfere in the voters' decision. I call upon all Egyptians ot co-operate for the sake of Egypt. I extend my hand to everyone." |
• The delay in the official results is fuelling suspicion that they are taking "extra time to cook this", says Ashraf Khalil on the latest Arabist podcast. | • The delay in the official results is fuelling suspicion that they are taking "extra time to cook this", says Ashraf Khalil on the latest Arabist podcast. |
There is a widespread belief that the Muslim Brotherhood is involved in high stakes negotiations over the result of the elections and the dissolution of parliament, the podcast discussed. It said there is a noticeable lack of outrage among secularists at the dissolution of parliament because of their antipathy to the Muslim Brotherhood. | There is a widespread belief that the Muslim Brotherhood is involved in high stakes negotiations over the result of the elections and the dissolution of parliament, the podcast discussed. It said there is a noticeable lack of outrage among secularists at the dissolution of parliament because of their antipathy to the Muslim Brotherhood. |
• The Muslim Brotherhood's instinct is not to protest but to try to solve Egypt's political crisis behind closed doors, according to the New Yorker's Peter Hessler in Cairo. | • The Muslim Brotherhood's instinct is not to protest but to try to solve Egypt's political crisis behind closed doors, according to the New Yorker's Peter Hessler in Cairo. |
Talking on a New Yorker podcast he describes his incredulity that so few of the Brotherhood's MPs protested outside parliament following its dissolution. He also criticises the Brotherhood for failing to build alliances with secularists when the parliament was in operation. "I think they are negotiating with the military council," he said. He added: "The thing that would lead to spontaneous demonstrations, is if the [electoral] commission announces that [Ahmed] Shafiq won the election. Then you're going to a see a lot of people out on the square and probably a lot of angry people." Wendell Steavenson, told the programme there is hope for Egypt if Morsi is declared the victor. "The fact that Morsi won and not Shafiq, means it was a free and unrigged election. That is not a small thing. If this is ratified the idea that for the first time in their history Egyptians have popularly, legitimately elected a leader is not a small thing. That process gives me hope." | Talking on a New Yorker podcast he describes his incredulity that so few of the Brotherhood's MPs protested outside parliament following its dissolution. He also criticises the Brotherhood for failing to build alliances with secularists when the parliament was in operation. "I think they are negotiating with the military council," he said. He added: "The thing that would lead to spontaneous demonstrations, is if the [electoral] commission announces that [Ahmed] Shafiq won the election. Then you're going to a see a lot of people out on the square and probably a lot of angry people." Wendell Steavenson, told the programme there is hope for Egypt if Morsi is declared the victor. "The fact that Morsi won and not Shafiq, means it was a free and unrigged election. That is not a small thing. If this is ratified the idea that for the first time in their history Egyptians have popularly, legitimately elected a leader is not a small thing. That process gives me hope." |
• US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has urged the Egyptian military to hand over power to the "legitimate winner", but she has also chided revolutionaries for failing to get involved in politics. Speaking to the broadcaster Charlie Rose she said: "It is imperative that the military fulfill its promise to the Egyptian people to turn power over to the legitimate winner." | • US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has urged the Egyptian military to hand over power to the "legitimate winner", but she has also chided revolutionaries for failing to get involved in politics. Speaking to the broadcaster Charlie Rose she said: "It is imperative that the military fulfill its promise to the Egyptian people to turn power over to the legitimate winner." |
But she added: | But she added: |
Democracy is not about one election, one time ... One of the stories that will emerge even more in the months ahead is that the people who started the revolution in Tahrir Square decided they wouldn't really get involved in politics. I remember going to Cairo shortly after the success of the revolution, meeting with a large group of these mostly young people. And when I said, 'So are you going to form a political party? Are you going to be working on behalf of political change?' They said, 'Oh no. We're revolutionaries. We don't do politics.' ... I sat there and I thought that's how revolutions get totally derailed, taken over, undermined. | Democracy is not about one election, one time ... One of the stories that will emerge even more in the months ahead is that the people who started the revolution in Tahrir Square decided they wouldn't really get involved in politics. I remember going to Cairo shortly after the success of the revolution, meeting with a large group of these mostly young people. And when I said, 'So are you going to form a political party? Are you going to be working on behalf of political change?' They said, 'Oh no. We're revolutionaries. We don't do politics.' ... I sat there and I thought that's how revolutions get totally derailed, taken over, undermined. |
Syria | Syria |
• Thursday witnessed the bloodiest day since the beginning of a shattered ceasefire, al-Jazeera reports, citing the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The Observatory said 114 people were killed yesterday. | • Thursday witnessed the bloodiest day since the beginning of a shattered ceasefire, al-Jazeera reports, citing the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The Observatory said 114 people were killed yesterday. |
• Jordan has granted asylum to a Syrian fighter pilot who landed his warplane at a military base near Amman on Thursday morning and announced his defection from the Assad regime. The pilot, a colonel, named by opposition activists as Hassan Merhi al-Hamadi, is the first known to have fled with a plane during the 16-month uprising. | • Jordan has granted asylum to a Syrian fighter pilot who landed his warplane at a military base near Amman on Thursday morning and announced his defection from the Assad regime. The pilot, a colonel, named by opposition activists as Hassan Merhi al-Hamadi, is the first known to have fled with a plane during the 16-month uprising. |
• The US has hailed the courage of the colonel, and encouraged others to do the same. State department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said: "We'd like to see more of this. We consider it extremely courageous and the right kind of move. It's obviously a significant moment when a guy takes a $25m plane and flies to another country and asks for asylum." | • The US has hailed the courage of the colonel, and encouraged others to do the same. State department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said: "We'd like to see more of this. We consider it extremely courageous and the right kind of move. It's obviously a significant moment when a guy takes a $25m plane and flies to another country and asks for asylum." |
• UN peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous has privately conceded that the UN's monitoring mission in Syria has outlived its usefulness, Foreign Policy reports. At a private session with the security council Ladsous said that the recent increase in violence in Syria had simply obliterated the ceasefire the monitors were there to enforce. | • UN peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous has privately conceded that the UN's monitoring mission in Syria has outlived its usefulness, Foreign Policy reports. At a private session with the security council Ladsous said that the recent increase in violence in Syria had simply obliterated the ceasefire the monitors were there to enforce. |
• Members of Bashar al-Assad's inner circle are making plans to defect to the opposition should the Syrian regime become critically threatened by the rebellion, a US official told the Telegraph. "We are seeing members of Bashar al-Assad's inner circle make plans to leave," the official said. | • Members of Bashar al-Assad's inner circle are making plans to defect to the opposition should the Syrian regime become critically threatened by the rebellion, a US official told the Telegraph. "We are seeing members of Bashar al-Assad's inner circle make plans to leave," the official said. |
Libya | Libya |
• Libyan prime minister Abdulrahim el-Keib said that the detained international criminal court lawyer Melinda Taylor was guilty of actions that "compromised national security" and would not be released. She was arrested with three other ICC officers earlier this month after meeting the indicted war crimes suspect Saif al-Islam Gaddafi. Keib said: "During the meeting with the defendant [Saif], the defendant Melinda Taylor handed over to the accused some documents and papers which compromise the national security of Libya. These documents have nothing to do with the ICC mission." Taylor's three colleagues – a Lebanese translator, Russian diplomat and Spanish legal expert – have been told they are free to leave Zintan but have elected to stay with Taylor. | • Libyan prime minister Abdulrahim el-Keib said that the detained international criminal court lawyer Melinda Taylor was guilty of actions that "compromised national security" and would not be released. She was arrested with three other ICC officers earlier this month after meeting the indicted war crimes suspect Saif al-Islam Gaddafi. Keib said: "During the meeting with the defendant [Saif], the defendant Melinda Taylor handed over to the accused some documents and papers which compromise the national security of Libya. These documents have nothing to do with the ICC mission." Taylor's three colleagues – a Lebanese translator, Russian diplomat and Spanish legal expert – have been told they are free to leave Zintan but have elected to stay with Taylor. |