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| Supreme court ruling on healthcare law – live coverage | Supreme court ruling on healthcare law – live coverage |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 10.07am: Here we go: Chief Justice John Roberts is reading the decision on healthcare law now – so that means he wrote the decision – and the individual mandate has been struck down. | |
| Ok, that's the first big question decided: the mandate fails under the commerce clause. | |
| More as we get it. | |
| 10.02am: The court has published its first decision, but it's about something else involving the first amendment. Oh it's the Stolen Valor act – which bans people falsely claiming they have won military honours (surprisingly common in the US, for some reason). | |
| Anyway, it's unconstitutional but Congress can redraft it. Apparently it's not illegal to lie. Thomas, Scalia and Alito all dissent. | |
| 10am: While we are waiting, here's a nice photo of the supreme court justices. | |
| They all have a great health insurance deal. | |
| 9.55am: Five minutes to go. There's a tiny but non-negligible chance that the court will punt on the whole issue, thanks to the Anti-Injunction Act that holds that taxes cannot be challenged in court until they are first levied. Which hasn't happened yet. But it's not likely. | |
| But if the court did, that would be really bad for everyone's health. | |
| 9.49am: Fifteen minutes to go – and when the healthcare rulings come, it's likely to be a complex one with many layers and possibly multiple dissents – as the Arizona immigration ruling on Monday showed – so beware of over-caffinated responses declaring victory for one side or the other. | |
| The fate of the individual mandate is only one aspect, although it's obviously the biggest one. Another, perhaps more far reaching in constitutional terms, is how the court redefines the commerce clause that the government is using to justify the mandate. | |
| And then there's the so-called Medicare expansion issue, offering healthcare coverage to an additional 16 million people but from which some states are asking the court to allow them to opt out. That alone could be even more significant than a decision on the individual mandate. | |
| 9.40am: In all the political excitement over today's ruling, let's not forget what's at stake: the nearly 50 million Americans without health insurance. | |
| 9.35am: In the event of the supreme court upholding the Affordable Care Act, how will the Republicans react? After the apoplexy has faded, here's what Speaker of the House John Boehner said yesterday: | |
| If the court does not strike down the entire law, the House will move to repeal what's left of it. | |
| 9.30am: Here's a brief history of Barack Obama's conflicts with the supreme court, starting with Chief Justice John Roberts bungling the oath of office at Obama's inauguration, Samuel Alito mouthing criticism at Obama during the 2010 state of the union address, and so on. | |
| 9.25am: Here's one supreme court prediction that is worth remembering, by two political scientists back in November last year, who tried to model the outcome: | |
| As always, predictions are hard, especially about the future (see Berra v Bohr) and especially when it isn't clear which precedents apply or which legal doctrines are likely to dominate. Thus, any specific prediction must go beyond the model. | |
| That said, here is ours: 6-3 or 7-2 to uphold the law. | |
| Respect for precedent pushes Kennedy to support the law and Roberts comes along for the ride in order to keep the opinion out of Kennedy's hands (and possibly writing an opinion that cabins the Commerce Clause more than it is now). Alito probably goes with Roberts, but seems more up for grabs. If we are wrong, expect the justices to either downplay precedent and emphasize other legal values (such as federalism) or play up the few precedents that protect state rights. | |
| We'll all find out in about 30 minutes. | |
| 9.15am: The New York Times's Nate Silver says that no one really knows what the decision is gong to be today: | 9.15am: The New York Times's Nate Silver says that no one really knows what the decision is gong to be today: |
| [S]tudies have found that predictions made by "expert" commentators on the Supreme Court do barely any better than a coin flip and are beaten by the statistical methods (a finding that follows the poor overall track record of experts in making predictions under many other circumstances). These experts are irrationally confident about their ability to read the tea leaves, and their predictions suffer for it. | [S]tudies have found that predictions made by "expert" commentators on the Supreme Court do barely any better than a coin flip and are beaten by the statistical methods (a finding that follows the poor overall track record of experts in making predictions under many other circumstances). These experts are irrationally confident about their ability to read the tea leaves, and their predictions suffer for it. |
| That makes me feel better that I have absolutely no clue what the result will be. | That makes me feel better that I have absolutely no clue what the result will be. |
| 9.10am: Of course you can follow all the healthcare decision news here but if you are a hard-core junkie then you can mainline the supreme court decision on ScotusBlog. | 9.10am: Of course you can follow all the healthcare decision news here but if you are a hard-core junkie then you can mainline the supreme court decision on ScotusBlog. |
| 9.05am: Never one to miss an opportunity, the Obama for America campaign manager Jim Messina emails supporters: | 9.05am: Never one to miss an opportunity, the Obama for America campaign manager Jim Messina emails supporters: |
| Friend – | Friend – |
| We don't know what will happen this morning. But no matter what, today is an important day to have Barack Obama's back. | We don't know what will happen this morning. But no matter what, today is an important day to have Barack Obama's back. |
| If you're with him, donate now – before this week's critical fundraising deadline. | If you're with him, donate now – before this week's critical fundraising deadline. |
| But don't worry, the Romney campaign will be spitting out fundraising emails soon enough. | But don't worry, the Romney campaign will be spitting out fundraising emails soon enough. |
| 9am: Right: an hour to go until the supreme court hands down its decision. It's a great day to bury bad news, as someone once said. | 9am: Right: an hour to go until the supreme court hands down its decision. It's a great day to bury bad news, as someone once said. |
| Bad news such as... | Bad news such as... |
| Losses on JP Morgan Chase's bungled trade could total as much as $9 billion, far exceeding earlier public estimates, according to people who have been briefed on the situation. | Losses on JP Morgan Chase's bungled trade could total as much as $9 billion, far exceeding earlier public estimates, according to people who have been briefed on the situation. |
| When Jamie Dimon, the bank's chief executive, announced in May that the bank had lost $2 billion in a bet on credit derivatives, he estimated that losses could double within the next few quarters. But the red ink has been mounting in recent weeks, as the bank has been unwinding its positions, according to interviews with current and former traders and executives at the bank who asked not to be named because of investigations into the bank. | When Jamie Dimon, the bank's chief executive, announced in May that the bank had lost $2 billion in a bet on credit derivatives, he estimated that losses could double within the next few quarters. But the red ink has been mounting in recent weeks, as the bank has been unwinding its positions, according to interviews with current and former traders and executives at the bank who asked not to be named because of investigations into the bank. |
| Well, well, fancy that. | Well, well, fancy that. |
| 8.55am: So how is the White House preparing for the range of outcomes this morning? Three different speeches for President Obama, according to the Wall Street Journal: | 8.55am: So how is the White House preparing for the range of outcomes this morning? Three different speeches for President Obama, according to the Wall Street Journal: |
| The president has three separate speeches prepared in anticipation of the ruling on his signature legislative achievement, a person familiar with them said. | The president has three separate speeches prepared in anticipation of the ruling on his signature legislative achievement, a person familiar with them said. |
| One of the speeches addresses a complete overturn of the law, while another is crafted as if the court strikes down the law's individual mandate but upholds other provisions. The third speech, for if the court upholds the entire law, is more celebratory, according to this person. | One of the speeches addresses a complete overturn of the law, while another is crafted as if the court strikes down the law's individual mandate but upholds other provisions. The third speech, for if the court upholds the entire law, is more celebratory, according to this person. |
| No matter the ruling, the White House is expected to continue highlighting provisions of the legislation that are more popular than the overall law, such as the requirements that insurance companies cover people with pre-existing conditions or allow parents to keep their children on their plans until they are 26 years old. | No matter the ruling, the White House is expected to continue highlighting provisions of the legislation that are more popular than the overall law, such as the requirements that insurance companies cover people with pre-existing conditions or allow parents to keep their children on their plans until they are 26 years old. |
| It's unclear when Mr Obama will comment on the decision. It's not on his public schedule. He is scheduled to be in the Oval Office receiving the daily presidential intelligence briefing at 10am, around when the decision is expected to be announced. | It's unclear when Mr Obama will comment on the decision. It's not on his public schedule. He is scheduled to be in the Oval Office receiving the daily presidential intelligence briefing at 10am, around when the decision is expected to be announced. |
| 8.45am: The US supreme court will today announce its decision on the Affordable Care Act, 828 days after the Obama administration's package of healthcare reforms passed into law. | 8.45am: The US supreme court will today announce its decision on the Affordable Care Act, 828 days after the Obama administration's package of healthcare reforms passed into law. |
| In the court's most controversial decision since Bush versus Gore decided the 2000 presidential election, the focus is foremost on the constitutionality of the individual mandate, the provision requiring Americans to have health insurance and the main bone of contention of those who oppose the law as an unwarranted extension of the federal government's powers. | In the court's most controversial decision since Bush versus Gore decided the 2000 presidential election, the focus is foremost on the constitutionality of the individual mandate, the provision requiring Americans to have health insurance and the main bone of contention of those who oppose the law as an unwarranted extension of the federal government's powers. |
| The court's decision will be handed down shortly after 10am in Washington DC – and with no leaks or hints surrounding the decision, even experienced court watchers confess uncertainty over how the nine supreme court justices will decide the challenge to the law brought by several states. | The court's decision will be handed down shortly after 10am in Washington DC – and with no leaks or hints surrounding the decision, even experienced court watchers confess uncertainty over how the nine supreme court justices will decide the challenge to the law brought by several states. |
| We will be live blogging the ruling, its implications and the seismic reactions that are sure to follow, no matter what the result – with the effects rippling beyond today's announcement to the presidential election to be held on 6 November. | We will be live blogging the ruling, its implications and the seismic reactions that are sure to follow, no matter what the result – with the effects rippling beyond today's announcement to the presidential election to be held on 6 November. |
| Republican challenger Mitt Romney has pledged to abolish the healthcare reforms if the supreme court fails to do so, while the White House is said to be ready with a back-up plan, involving a series of executive orders, if the healthcare law is overturned. | Republican challenger Mitt Romney has pledged to abolish the healthcare reforms if the supreme court fails to do so, while the White House is said to be ready with a back-up plan, involving a series of executive orders, if the healthcare law is overturned. |
| Background briefing: | Background briefing: |
| • A beginner's guide to the healthcare ruling, by Lyle Denniston of ScotusBlog, the foremost source of supreme court intelligence | • A beginner's guide to the healthcare ruling, by Lyle Denniston of ScotusBlog, the foremost source of supreme court intelligence |
| • The Associated Press has an excellent Q&A about the possible outcomes from today's decision and their implications | • The Associated Press has an excellent Q&A about the possible outcomes from today's decision and their implications |
| • The New York Times has an interactive graphic to explain the ruling and its consequences | • The New York Times has an interactive graphic to explain the ruling and its consequences |
| • Politifact.com's top five falsehoods about the healthcare law – including Sarah Palin's "death panel" claim that earned her a "pants on fire" rating | • Politifact.com's top five falsehoods about the healthcare law – including Sarah Palin's "death panel" claim that earned her a "pants on fire" rating |
| • Follow audio excerpts and the supreme court's transcript from important points in March's hearing | • Follow audio excerpts and the supreme court's transcript from important points in March's hearing |
| • Read the Guardian's full coverage of the US healthcare debate | • Read the Guardian's full coverage of the US healthcare debate |