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| Iran nuclear talks: a thin, faint chink of light | Iran nuclear talks: a thin, faint chink of light |
| (8 days later) | |
| The official talks between Iran and six major powers continue to creep forward with no sign of progress. Technical experts met in Istanbul on Tuesday to thrash out the science involved in the negotiations, but the rift between the two sides is wide and essentially political. The next step is supposed to be a meeting between mid-level diplomats - the deputy EU foreign policy representative, Helga Schmid, and her Iranian counterpart, Ali Bagheri, more to keep the conversation going than in any genuine sense of forward movement. | The official talks between Iran and six major powers continue to creep forward with no sign of progress. Technical experts met in Istanbul on Tuesday to thrash out the science involved in the negotiations, but the rift between the two sides is wide and essentially political. The next step is supposed to be a meeting between mid-level diplomats - the deputy EU foreign policy representative, Helga Schmid, and her Iranian counterpart, Ali Bagheri, more to keep the conversation going than in any genuine sense of forward movement. |
| Meanwhile, the fullest exposition of the Iranian position to date has surfaced in the form of a document presented at the Iranian mission to the UN on Tuesday to a group of US nuclear experts, at the same time as the Istanbul meeting. | Meanwhile, the fullest exposition of the Iranian position to date has surfaced in the form of a document presented at the Iranian mission to the UN on Tuesday to a group of US nuclear experts, at the same time as the Istanbul meeting. |
| The document, which was first reported by Al-Monitor, appears to be a paper version of the PowerPoint presentation given by the Iranian delegation to the Moscow talks last month, and it is a tough read. | The document, which was first reported by Al-Monitor, appears to be a paper version of the PowerPoint presentation given by the Iranian delegation to the Moscow talks last month, and it is a tough read. |
| It comprehensively rejects the EU-brokered proposal for Iran to stop production of 20%-enriched uranium, to shut down production at the underground Fordow centrifuge plant, and ship out Iran's stockpile of 20% uranium ('stop, shut and ship'), in return for fuel plates for a medical research reactor, nuclear safety assistance, and parts for commercial airliners. | It comprehensively rejects the EU-brokered proposal for Iran to stop production of 20%-enriched uranium, to shut down production at the underground Fordow centrifuge plant, and ship out Iran's stockpile of 20% uranium ('stop, shut and ship'), in return for fuel plates for a medical research reactor, nuclear safety assistance, and parts for commercial airliners. |
| The document states that Iran needs its 20% uranium not just for the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) but "for at least 4 other research reactors because of the territorial extent of Iran and the short lifetime of medical isotopes". It also suggested that Tehran might want to sell its nuclear fuel abroad, another rationale for producing more than it currently needs. | The document states that Iran needs its 20% uranium not just for the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) but "for at least 4 other research reactors because of the territorial extent of Iran and the short lifetime of medical isotopes". It also suggested that Tehran might want to sell its nuclear fuel abroad, another rationale for producing more than it currently needs. |
| The New York document also says that shutting down Fordow "has no relation to 20%" because other activities are carried out at the site. It rejects transferring the 20% stockpile out of the country as it says that stockpile is already "under the supervision of the IAEA, sealed by the IAEA and inspectors of the agency do ..unannounced inspections." | The New York document also says that shutting down Fordow "has no relation to 20%" because other activities are carried out at the site. It rejects transferring the 20% stockpile out of the country as it says that stockpile is already "under the supervision of the IAEA, sealed by the IAEA and inspectors of the agency do ..unannounced inspections." |
| The Iranian presentation makes light of the incentives on offer. It treats the offer of foreign-made fuel plates for the TRR, not as a sweetener for Tehran, but as a favour Iran would be doing the rest of the world, cooperating with the six-power group "to provide fuel" for the reactor. In return the six powers "will terminate the sanctions and will remove Iran's nuclear file from the [UN Security Council] agenda." | The Iranian presentation makes light of the incentives on offer. It treats the offer of foreign-made fuel plates for the TRR, not as a sweetener for Tehran, but as a favour Iran would be doing the rest of the world, cooperating with the six-power group "to provide fuel" for the reactor. In return the six powers "will terminate the sanctions and will remove Iran's nuclear file from the [UN Security Council] agenda." |
| The document also demands the lifting of sanctions in return for cooperation with the IAEA in its investigation of the "possible military dimensions" of the Iranian programme, an enquiry Iran insists is grounded on "baseless accusations and ambiguities". | The document also demands the lifting of sanctions in return for cooperation with the IAEA in its investigation of the "possible military dimensions" of the Iranian programme, an enquiry Iran insists is grounded on "baseless accusations and ambiguities". |
| The central demand is that the six powers openly recognise Iran's right to enrich uranium, in return for which the Islamic Republic would "emphasise once again ..its commitments under the NPT and its opposition to nuclear weapons based on the Supreme Leader's fatwa against such weapons". | The central demand is that the six powers openly recognise Iran's right to enrich uranium, in return for which the Islamic Republic would "emphasise once again ..its commitments under the NPT and its opposition to nuclear weapons based on the Supreme Leader's fatwa against such weapons". |
| In other words, iran wants the international community to allow it's programme go forward without restrictions in return for the Supreme Leader's promise not to make bombs. | In other words, iran wants the international community to allow it's programme go forward without restrictions in return for the Supreme Leader's promise not to make bombs. |
| However, Jim Walsh, a non-proliferation expert at MIT who was at Tuesday's presentation, said you had to be in the room to fully appreciate the message being sent. "The oral presentation was much softer," Walsh insisted. | However, Jim Walsh, a non-proliferation expert at MIT who was at Tuesday's presentation, said you had to be in the room to fully appreciate the message being sent. "The oral presentation was much softer," Walsh insisted. |
| He said that ambassador Mohammad Khazaee and his team suggested for the first time that the heavy water reactor Iran is building in Arak, which could be a source of weapons grade plutonium when operational, could be replaced by a light water reactor, which would much less of a proliferation concern. | He said that ambassador Mohammad Khazaee and his team suggested for the first time that the heavy water reactor Iran is building in Arak, which could be a source of weapons grade plutonium when operational, could be replaced by a light water reactor, which would much less of a proliferation concern. |
| More immediately, he said the Iranian diplomats appeared open to the possibility of future curbs on 20% enrichment in the right circumstances. However, Iran has no incentive to float such a concession if sanctions relief is not on the table. | More immediately, he said the Iranian diplomats appeared open to the possibility of future curbs on 20% enrichment in the right circumstances. However, Iran has no incentive to float such a concession if sanctions relief is not on the table. |
| It's entirely illogical for sanctions not to be on the table. Why would the Iranians change their position otherwise? This is something the Europeans could do, postpone the oil embargo, but they are scared to death it would send the signal to Israel that it was going soft. | It's entirely illogical for sanctions not to be on the table. Why would the Iranians change their position otherwise? This is something the Europeans could do, postpone the oil embargo, but they are scared to death it would send the signal to Israel that it was going soft. |
| European diplomats have said that if Iran had asked for a postponement of the oil embargo at the official talks in return for 20% suspension, the six-nation group would have found itself split and would have difficulty turning it down. As it happened, the Iranians made the country's guaranteed right to enrich their central demand, on which the six powers were more or less in agreement - that could only come at the end of a long negotiating process. Walsh said: | European diplomats have said that if Iran had asked for a postponement of the oil embargo at the official talks in return for 20% suspension, the six-nation group would have found itself split and would have difficulty turning it down. As it happened, the Iranians made the country's guaranteed right to enrich their central demand, on which the six powers were more or less in agreement - that could only come at the end of a long negotiating process. Walsh said: |
| The Iranians being the Iranians, they made the big philosophical thing the priority and so they bailed out the Europeans. But they also want to see light at the end of the tunnel, a clear end-point rather than an endless process. | The Iranians being the Iranians, they made the big philosophical thing the priority and so they bailed out the Europeans. But they also want to see light at the end of the tunnel, a clear end-point rather than an endless process. |
| Walsh came away from New York believing a deal was possible - curbs on 20% enrichment in return for sanctions relief, and the right to enrich in return for transparency with the IAEA and strict monitoring. The tricky issue would be sequencing. The six powers want proof of Iranian good faith up front. The Iranians see themselves as the weaker party with no higher authority to call on to ensure the major powers keep their promises, so they want the other side to make the first concession. | Walsh came away from New York believing a deal was possible - curbs on 20% enrichment in return for sanctions relief, and the right to enrich in return for transparency with the IAEA and strict monitoring. The tricky issue would be sequencing. The six powers want proof of Iranian good faith up front. The Iranians see themselves as the weaker party with no higher authority to call on to ensure the major powers keep their promises, so they want the other side to make the first concession. |
| The great caveat to this cautious optimism is that it was foreign ministry diplomats who made the Tuesday presentation in New York, and they have consistently come across as more reasonable and flexible than the Supreme Leader's office back home. His representative at the official talks in Istanbul, Baghdad and Moscow, Saeed Jalili, has shown no such signs of nuance. | The great caveat to this cautious optimism is that it was foreign ministry diplomats who made the Tuesday presentation in New York, and they have consistently come across as more reasonable and flexible than the Supreme Leader's office back home. His representative at the official talks in Istanbul, Baghdad and Moscow, Saeed Jalili, has shown no such signs of nuance. |
| Nevertheless, there are growing calls for Europe to put its new oil embargo into the negotiating mix before giving up on diplomacy altogether. To many independent observers like Walsh it represents a fair swap for 20% enrichment. Not to call the Iranian bluff on it at least would represent a failure to explore all the peaceful avenues to a settlement that still remain open. | Nevertheless, there are growing calls for Europe to put its new oil embargo into the negotiating mix before giving up on diplomacy altogether. To many independent observers like Walsh it represents a fair swap for 20% enrichment. Not to call the Iranian bluff on it at least would represent a failure to explore all the peaceful avenues to a settlement that still remain open. |
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