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| Version 4 | Version 5 |
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| Splits widen within Syrian opposition | Splits widen within Syrian opposition |
| (8 days later) | |
| Syria's fractured opposition is to meet for what is set to be a bitter internal debate over forming a transitional government to replace the regime of Bashar al-Assad, now fighting hard to reverse rebel advances. | Syria's fractured opposition is to meet for what is set to be a bitter internal debate over forming a transitional government to replace the regime of Bashar al-Assad, now fighting hard to reverse rebel advances. |
| The secretariat of the Syrian National Council (SNC) – the biggest single coalition of anti-Assad groups – is convening in the Qatari capital, Doha, on Thursday where SNC sources say that Riyad Seif, a respected dissident, is a leading candidate to head a "consensus-based" civilian administration. | The secretariat of the Syrian National Council (SNC) – the biggest single coalition of anti-Assad groups – is convening in the Qatari capital, Doha, on Thursday where SNC sources say that Riyad Seif, a respected dissident, is a leading candidate to head a "consensus-based" civilian administration. |
| But Brigadier General Manaf Tlass, the most important member of Assad's inner circle yet to defect, is also being mooted as the head of an Egyptian-style supreme military council that could keep the Syrian armed forces intact and loyal, according to SNC officials and foreign diplomats. | But Brigadier General Manaf Tlass, the most important member of Assad's inner circle yet to defect, is also being mooted as the head of an Egyptian-style supreme military council that could keep the Syrian armed forces intact and loyal, according to SNC officials and foreign diplomats. |
| In the latest developments on the ground, reports from Aleppo on Wednesday described preparations for a major confrontation between government and rebel forces as well as aeroplanes bombing opposition strongholds in Damascus. | In the latest developments on the ground, reports from Aleppo on Wednesday described preparations for a major confrontation between government and rebel forces as well as aeroplanes bombing opposition strongholds in Damascus. |
| In his first public statement since his defection, Tlass called on Tuesday for the opposition to unite and urged the military to abandon Assad. Tlass has been on a pilgrimage to Mecca, burnishing his Sunni Muslim credentials. Saudi Arabia, France and Russia all want him to play a role. | In his first public statement since his defection, Tlass called on Tuesday for the opposition to unite and urged the military to abandon Assad. Tlass has been on a pilgrimage to Mecca, burnishing his Sunni Muslim credentials. Saudi Arabia, France and Russia all want him to play a role. |
| General Mustafa al-Sheikh, one of the first generals to join the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA), said he was backing Tlass. But there were immediate objections that the Republican Guard officer is too closely associated with the regime. "Manaf Tlass was not speaking to the opposition or to the people of Syria," said the analyst Rime Allaf. "He was placing a call to his peers in the army." | General Mustafa al-Sheikh, one of the first generals to join the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA), said he was backing Tlass. But there were immediate objections that the Republican Guard officer is too closely associated with the regime. "Manaf Tlass was not speaking to the opposition or to the people of Syria," said the analyst Rime Allaf. "He was placing a call to his peers in the army." |
| Others say he is tainted by the record of his father, who was defence minister under Assad's father, Hafez. | Others say he is tainted by the record of his father, who was defence minister under Assad's father, Hafez. |
| Forming a unity government is a contentious issue for the SNC. Abdel-Basset Sieda, its Kurdish leader, was forced on Tuesday to deny reports that he agreed to the transfer of Assad's powers to another regime figure who would lead a transitional period, as in Yemen. | Forming a unity government is a contentious issue for the SNC. Abdel-Basset Sieda, its Kurdish leader, was forced on Tuesday to deny reports that he agreed to the transfer of Assad's powers to another regime figure who would lead a transitional period, as in Yemen. |
| The SNC had accepted Kofi Annan's UN-backed transition plans but says circumstances on the ground have changed since last week's advances by the FSA and the bomb attack in Damascus that killed four of Assad's top security chiefs. | The SNC had accepted Kofi Annan's UN-backed transition plans but says circumstances on the ground have changed since last week's advances by the FSA and the bomb attack in Damascus that killed four of Assad's top security chiefs. |
| "The transitional period has already started," said Obaida Nahas, an SNC member who is close to the Muslim Brotherhood. "Bashar no longer controls the country the same way he did just a few weeks ago. There is a new reality in Syria. The balance of power has shifted." | "The transitional period has already started," said Obaida Nahas, an SNC member who is close to the Muslim Brotherhood. "Bashar no longer controls the country the same way he did just a few weeks ago. There is a new reality in Syria. The balance of power has shifted." |
| Still, the SNC faces serious credibility problems. It is divided internally – between liberals and Islamists and between Arabs and Kurds – and at odds with other groups, such as the Damascus-based National Co-ordination Bureau (NCB), which opposes armed opposition. Several key figures have walked out. | Still, the SNC faces serious credibility problems. It is divided internally – between liberals and Islamists and between Arabs and Kurds – and at odds with other groups, such as the Damascus-based National Co-ordination Bureau (NCB), which opposes armed opposition. Several key figures have walked out. |
| Hazem al-Nahar, a dissident, has described "a Babel of contradictions and competing voices that leaves ... regime loyalists and opponents alike mistrustful and dismissive of the Syrian opposition." | Hazem al-Nahar, a dissident, has described "a Babel of contradictions and competing voices that leaves ... regime loyalists and opponents alike mistrustful and dismissive of the Syrian opposition." |
| Demonstrating the strength of opinions on the various sides, fistfights broke out at an opposition conference held by the Arab League in Cairo earlier this month. | Demonstrating the strength of opinions on the various sides, fistfights broke out at an opposition conference held by the Arab League in Cairo earlier this month. |
| Foreign backers | Foreign backers |
| The SNC's critics complain that it is too close to foreign backers such as Qatar and Turkey – the organisation is based in Istanbul – and that for all its international links it has failed to secure the Libya-style military intervention it had hoped for. US backing, in particular, has been limited to cash and non-lethal equipment, with some covert intelligence support, the significance of which is hard to gauge. | The SNC's critics complain that it is too close to foreign backers such as Qatar and Turkey – the organisation is based in Istanbul – and that for all its international links it has failed to secure the Libya-style military intervention it had hoped for. US backing, in particular, has been limited to cash and non-lethal equipment, with some covert intelligence support, the significance of which is hard to gauge. |
| "Sieda is the not real decision-maker," complained Khalaf Dawood of the NCB. "He and [predecessor Burhan] Ghalioun are just pawns. The Islamists control the SNC even though there is no democratic basis for that. The Turks and the Saudis are running things and the Americans might be behind them. We don't want to end up swapping one corrupt dictatorship for another." | "Sieda is the not real decision-maker," complained Khalaf Dawood of the NCB. "He and [predecessor Burhan] Ghalioun are just pawns. The Islamists control the SNC even though there is no democratic basis for that. The Turks and the Saudis are running things and the Americans might be behind them. We don't want to end up swapping one corrupt dictatorship for another." |
| SNC officials emphasise close co-ordination with the FSA, whose men now receive regular pay through the council. "The SNC want to create a war chest so they can bribe fighters on the ground because that's the only way they can have any leverage on the ground," said the Syrian commentator Malik al-Abdeh. | SNC officials emphasise close co-ordination with the FSA, whose men now receive regular pay through the council. "The SNC want to create a war chest so they can bribe fighters on the ground because that's the only way they can have any leverage on the ground," said the Syrian commentator Malik al-Abdeh. |
| SNC leaders say they will shortly set up a base on Syrian soil like the Libyan rebels did in Benghazi. | SNC leaders say they will shortly set up a base on Syrian soil like the Libyan rebels did in Benghazi. |
| The SNC has also built up a database to keep foreign governments informed on the structure and activities of the FSA so weapons and money do not end up in the hands of Salafi or jihadi-type groups. | The SNC has also built up a database to keep foreign governments informed on the structure and activities of the FSA so weapons and money do not end up in the hands of Salafi or jihadi-type groups. |
| Ausama Monajed, a senior SNC adviser, said: "People inside Syria may say that the SNC is irrelevant, but we do need some kind of solution. We can't just wait until everything collapses and descends into chaos. The international community needs partners." | Ausama Monajed, a senior SNC adviser, said: "People inside Syria may say that the SNC is irrelevant, but we do need some kind of solution. We can't just wait until everything collapses and descends into chaos. The international community needs partners." |
| On the ground, where events are driven by the largely autonomous Local Co-ordination Committees (LCCs) – the tansiqiyat – and the FSA, there is deep scepticism. "Everything is now down to the revolutionaries in Syria, including the FSA," argues the activist and blogger Razan Ghazzawi. Another opposition figure said: "The SNC is somewhat discredited inside Syria and will remain so unless it gets its act together and does something substantial for the people." | On the ground, where events are driven by the largely autonomous Local Co-ordination Committees (LCCs) – the tansiqiyat – and the FSA, there is deep scepticism. "Everything is now down to the revolutionaries in Syria, including the FSA," argues the activist and blogger Razan Ghazzawi. Another opposition figure said: "The SNC is somewhat discredited inside Syria and will remain so unless it gets its act together and does something substantial for the people." |
| The Lebanese columnist Karl Sharro said: "Ultimately, something new will be born out of the LCCs and the FSA and they will provide more credible leadership than anything the SNC can come up with." | The Lebanese columnist Karl Sharro said: "Ultimately, something new will be born out of the LCCs and the FSA and they will provide more credible leadership than anything the SNC can come up with." |
| Others say they expect the SNC to collapse and disappear when Assad goes. The SNC's position is complicated by the competing agendas of outsiders. France combines historic Syrian links with strong current interest – its intelligence service helped Tlass defect – and is lobbying hard for a transitional government. | Others say they expect the SNC to collapse and disappear when Assad goes. The SNC's position is complicated by the competing agendas of outsiders. France combines historic Syrian links with strong current interest – its intelligence service helped Tlass defect – and is lobbying hard for a transitional government. |
| Britain fears that could be a distraction from preparing for the practicalities of the post-Assad era. "The key thing is to come together for the transition," said a UK official. "Forming a government now will lead to infighting and divisions over personalities. There have already been a lot of disagreements – SNC v non-SNC, Arabs v Kurds. Now we need to say to them: 'This is a new stage and you need to improve your credibility.'" | Britain fears that could be a distraction from preparing for the practicalities of the post-Assad era. "The key thing is to come together for the transition," said a UK official. "Forming a government now will lead to infighting and divisions over personalities. There have already been a lot of disagreements – SNC v non-SNC, Arabs v Kurds. Now we need to say to them: 'This is a new stage and you need to improve your credibility.'" |
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