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Syria crisis: Aleppo battle looms - live updates Syria crisis: Aleppo battle looms - live updates
(40 minutes later)
11.23am: Brigadier General Manaf Tlass, the cigar-chomping defector backed by US officials (see 9.47am) seems to have thrown his lot in with the Saudis rather than the Qataris – unlike many of the other Syrian defectors.
He's featured today in an interview (in Arabic) with the Saudi-owned Asharq al-Awsat where he thanks King Abdullah "for giving me this opportunity to visit Saudi Arabia" and describes the kingdom as "a friendly country to Syria".
He also confirms – as we suggested in the live blog yesterday – that he has been in Saudi Arabia performing the umrah pilgrimage. This helps to explain the period of silence following his defection.
In extracts from the interview translated by Reuters, Tlass says:
I am discussing with ... people outside Syria to reach a consensus with those inside.
I left (Syria) ... to try to help the best I can to unite the honourable people inside and outside Syria to set out a road map to get Syria out of this crisis.
I realise this is a difficult phase ... It's difficult for one person to bear the responsibility of such a phase. A group (including opposition) from inside and outside Syria should cooperate to accomplish this phase.
He adds that he "did not leave Syria to lead the transitional period".
11.06am: Following the Qubair massacre last month, the Syrian government appointed its own commission to investigate, but it wasn't long before reports started circulating that the head of the commission, Talal Houshan, had defected.11.06am: Following the Qubair massacre last month, the Syrian government appointed its own commission to investigate, but it wasn't long before reports started circulating that the head of the commission, Talal Houshan, had defected.
These reports now appear to be confirmed by a video posted on YouTube where Houshan, apparently reading a prepared statement, accuses the Syrian government and its shabiha supporters of killing women and children.These reports now appear to be confirmed by a video posted on YouTube where Houshan, apparently reading a prepared statement, accuses the Syrian government and its shabiha supporters of killing women and children.
In the statement, he refers to numerous "crimes" by the regime and cites eyewitnesses.In the statement, he refers to numerous "crimes" by the regime and cites eyewitnesses.
10.25am: Many Kurdish towns in the northeast of Syria are now flying the Kurdish flag as Syrian troops have withdrawn from the region to fight back the offensives in Syria's two largest cities, Syria-watcher Joshua Landis writes on his blog.10.25am: Many Kurdish towns in the northeast of Syria are now flying the Kurdish flag as Syrian troops have withdrawn from the region to fight back the offensives in Syria's two largest cities, Syria-watcher Joshua Landis writes on his blog.
Landis quotes a friend in Iraqi Kurdistan who says the Kurds' takeover of towns in Syria has "led to a crisis of relations between them and the FSA/rebels".Landis quotes a friend in Iraqi Kurdistan who says the Kurds' takeover of towns in Syria has "led to a crisis of relations between them and the FSA/rebels".
Supposedly, some months back there had been a pledge of mutual support between the Kurds and the rebels, regarding resistance against the regime.Supposedly, some months back there had been a pledge of mutual support between the Kurds and the rebels, regarding resistance against the regime.
Now however, the Kurds seem more interested in protecting their homeland than in participating in the nation-wide struggle against the regime. After taking control of Hasake (haven't verified this), a conflict emerged between them and the FSA that wanted to control the area due to its strategic importance.Now however, the Kurds seem more interested in protecting their homeland than in participating in the nation-wide struggle against the regime. After taking control of Hasake (haven't verified this), a conflict emerged between them and the FSA that wanted to control the area due to its strategic importance.
Landis also points to an article in The National by Aymenn al-Tamimi which begins:Landis also points to an article in The National by Aymenn al-Tamimi which begins:
Developments in Syria and Iraq have led some to speculate that the birth of an independent Kurdish state might be at hand.Developments in Syria and Iraq have led some to speculate that the birth of an independent Kurdish state might be at hand.
A closer analysis shows that a united Kurdistan is still unlikely, although a separate semi-autonomous Kurdish community in Syria, with some parallels to the Kurdish Autonomous Region in Iraq, is a growing possibility.A closer analysis shows that a united Kurdistan is still unlikely, although a separate semi-autonomous Kurdish community in Syria, with some parallels to the Kurdish Autonomous Region in Iraq, is a growing possibility.
9.56am: Blogger Brown Moses has highlighted another video of a warplane flying over Aleppo.9.56am: Blogger Brown Moses has highlighted another video of a warplane flying over Aleppo.
The outline of the aircraft in the video – much clearer than in previous clips – shows that it is not a MiG fighter, contrary to what various news organisations are reporting.The outline of the aircraft in the video – much clearer than in previous clips – shows that it is not a MiG fighter, contrary to what various news organisations are reporting.
9.47am: The Wall Street Journal – which seems to think it's America's job to choose a replacement for Bashar al-Assad – says US officials have latched on to the cigar-chomping Manaf Tlass as a likely prospect.9.47am: The Wall Street Journal – which seems to think it's America's job to choose a replacement for Bashar al-Assad – says US officials have latched on to the cigar-chomping Manaf Tlass as a likely prospect.
Tlass, who defected recently, is "one of the few figures in opposition to the regime who could potentially help restore order in Damascus and secure Syria's vast chemical-weapons stockpile", Eric Linton writes citing unnamed officials.Tlass, who defected recently, is "one of the few figures in opposition to the regime who could potentially help restore order in Damascus and secure Syria's vast chemical-weapons stockpile", Eric Linton writes citing unnamed officials.
Tlass was a commander in Syria's elite Republican Guard before his July 6 defection, and his father served as defense minister under Assad's late father, President Hafez al-Assad, for 30 years.Tlass was a commander in Syria's elite Republican Guard before his July 6 defection, and his father served as defense minister under Assad's late father, President Hafez al-Assad, for 30 years.
He is also, unlike the Assad clan, a Sunni Muslim, which western officials hope could make him acceptable as a transitional figure to the country's rebel fighters and opposition leaders, who are also largely from the Sunni sect of Islam.He is also, unlike the Assad clan, a Sunni Muslim, which western officials hope could make him acceptable as a transitional figure to the country's rebel fighters and opposition leaders, who are also largely from the Sunni sect of Islam.
But the article doesn't find many others who agree. It acknowledges that "many in the opposition consider Tlass and his family too closely tied to the Assads' repression and corruption to be acceptable to Syrians".But the article doesn't find many others who agree. It acknowledges that "many in the opposition consider Tlass and his family too closely tied to the Assads' repression and corruption to be acceptable to Syrians".
It quotes a US defence official as saying "It's too early to say if Tlass will stand the strain and pick up traction or just fade away", while exiled Syrian activist Ammar Abdulhamid says:It quotes a US defence official as saying "It's too early to say if Tlass will stand the strain and pick up traction or just fade away", while exiled Syrian activist Ammar Abdulhamid says:
Someone like Tlass is difficult to sell to the Syrian people. He certainly can't play any leading role in a transition.Someone like Tlass is difficult to sell to the Syrian people. He certainly can't play any leading role in a transition.
In an article posted on the Jadaliyya website, Bassam Haddad describes some scary meetings with Manaf Tlass while researching the development of capitalism in Syria (and the related corruption).In an article posted on the Jadaliyya website, Bassam Haddad describes some scary meetings with Manaf Tlass while researching the development of capitalism in Syria (and the related corruption).
On reform, he asserted the importance of gradualism, a Hafez al-Asad mantra, one that suits the reformers' timetable, not that of the purported beneficiaries. But he was also unabashed in asserting the need for top-down control, which to him transcended questions of right and wrong, or democracy and authoritarianism.On reform, he asserted the importance of gradualism, a Hafez al-Asad mantra, one that suits the reformers' timetable, not that of the purported beneficiaries. But he was also unabashed in asserting the need for top-down control, which to him transcended questions of right and wrong, or democracy and authoritarianism.
The regime had to guide the reform process based on a holistic view, one that takes into account local and regional variables. I interjected that this approach is the norm for regimes like Syria's because reform is not the goal. He did not correct me, and reasserted the need for control.The regime had to guide the reform process based on a holistic view, one that takes into account local and regional variables. I interjected that this approach is the norm for regimes like Syria's because reform is not the goal. He did not correct me, and reasserted the need for control.
9.14am: Almost unnoticed last week, as attention focused on battles in Damascus, Kurdish activists in north-eastern Syria started taking control of a few towns without encountering much resistance from the Assad regime's security forces.9.14am: Almost unnoticed last week, as attention focused on battles in Damascus, Kurdish activists in north-eastern Syria started taking control of a few towns without encountering much resistance from the Assad regime's security forces.
In an article for Comment is free, Fazel Hawramy (aka Kurdishblogger) says this is a significant development which could potentially tilt the balance of power against Assad. Kurdish relations with the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) are still problematic, though:In an article for Comment is free, Fazel Hawramy (aka Kurdishblogger) says this is a significant development which could potentially tilt the balance of power against Assad. Kurdish relations with the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) are still problematic, though:
In April, the SNC issued a National Charter to "redress the injustice … the Kurdish people have faced for decades …" and work towards "the abolition of all discriminatory policies … and compensate those affected."In April, the SNC issued a National Charter to "redress the injustice … the Kurdish people have faced for decades …" and work towards "the abolition of all discriminatory policies … and compensate those affected."
While this is an important starting point, the Kurds – who have faced years of discrimination at the hands of successive "Arab" regimes in Syria – find it difficult to trust a guarantee by the SNC, which is dominated by Arab nationalists and members of Muslim Brotherhood movement. The Kurdish parties believe the charter falls short of full constitutional recognition.While this is an important starting point, the Kurds – who have faced years of discrimination at the hands of successive "Arab" regimes in Syria – find it difficult to trust a guarantee by the SNC, which is dominated by Arab nationalists and members of Muslim Brotherhood movement. The Kurdish parties believe the charter falls short of full constitutional recognition.
The insistence of SNC members to retain the word "Arab" in the official name of the country – the "Syrian Arab Republic" – has been one of the main stumbling blocks for the Kurds to trust the SNC as their legitimate voice in a post-Assad Syria.The insistence of SNC members to retain the word "Arab" in the official name of the country – the "Syrian Arab Republic" – has been one of the main stumbling blocks for the Kurds to trust the SNC as their legitimate voice in a post-Assad Syria.
8.35am: (all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live.8.35am: (all times BST) Welcome to Middle East Live.
Here's a roundup of the latest developments and analysis on Syria:Here's a roundup of the latest developments and analysis on Syria:
• All the signs indicate that a battle is looming in Aleppo, the New York Times reports. • All the signs indicate that a battle is looming in Aleppo, the New York Times reports.
After withdrawing all visible security forces, for a day, Syrian Army troops brought in on trucks or buses suddenly deployed around the 13th-century citadel. Thousands more were en route, according to rebel fighters and activists.After withdrawing all visible security forces, for a day, Syrian Army troops brought in on trucks or buses suddenly deployed around the 13th-century citadel. Thousands more were en route, according to rebel fighters and activists.
"People know there is going to be chaos, fighting, shelling, so people are frightened," said one activist reached via Skype. "They have stocked up on canned goods and are not venturing out.""People know there is going to be chaos, fighting, shelling, so people are frightened," said one activist reached via Skype. "They have stocked up on canned goods and are not venturing out."
• "Victory is coming soon. Almost half of Aleppo is now with the FSA," Abdul Gabbar Kaidi the colonel in charge of the rebel battle for Aleppo told Luke Harding in northern Syria.• "Victory is coming soon. Almost half of Aleppo is now with the FSA," Abdul Gabbar Kaidi the colonel in charge of the rebel battle for Aleppo told Luke Harding in northern Syria.
In this dark, asymmetric struggle, there is a sense that the rebels are winning, not by great degrees, but slowly and inexorably: an unstoppable human tide. The regime may have succeeded in quelling the rebellion in Damascus, for the moment. But virtually the entire country is in the grip of a popular revolution.In this dark, asymmetric struggle, there is a sense that the rebels are winning, not by great degrees, but slowly and inexorably: an unstoppable human tide. The regime may have succeeded in quelling the rebellion in Damascus, for the moment. But virtually the entire country is in the grip of a popular revolution.
The battle for Syria's biggest city, Aleppo ... is desperately poised. The rebels are outgunned, fighting street by street, and up against a mostly invisible enemy that rains death from the skies.The battle for Syria's biggest city, Aleppo ... is desperately poised. The rebels are outgunned, fighting street by street, and up against a mostly invisible enemy that rains death from the skies.
You can see video a interview with Harding in Syria here.You can see video a interview with Harding in Syria here.
• Arab nations plan to go to the UN general assembly and seek approval of a resolution calling for a political transition in Syria following the security council's failure to address the escalating crisis, AP reports. Saudi Arabia's Ambassador Abdallah al-Mouallimi and Qatari diplomat Abdulrahman Al-Hamadi announced plans to seek action by the 193-member world body, where there are no vetoes, during a Security Council debate on the Middle East.• Arab nations plan to go to the UN general assembly and seek approval of a resolution calling for a political transition in Syria following the security council's failure to address the escalating crisis, AP reports. Saudi Arabia's Ambassador Abdallah al-Mouallimi and Qatari diplomat Abdulrahman Al-Hamadi announced plans to seek action by the 193-member world body, where there are no vetoes, during a Security Council debate on the Middle East.
• The head of the UN peacekeeping Herve Ladsous is trying to dismantle the now depleted monitoring mission in Syria, diplomats have told Inner City Press. One claim that Ladsous was deliberately "misinterpreting" a resolution to extend the mission for 30 days.• The head of the UN peacekeeping Herve Ladsous is trying to dismantle the now depleted monitoring mission in Syria, diplomats have told Inner City Press. One claim that Ladsous was deliberately "misinterpreting" a resolution to extend the mission for 30 days.
• The opposition Syrian National Council is poised to set up a base on Syrian soil like the Libyan rebels did in Benghazi, but the divisions appearing to be opening up, writes Ian Black. • The opposition Syrian National Council is poised to set up a base on Syrian soil like the Libyan rebels did in Benghazi, but the divisions appearing to be opening up, writes Ian Black.
The group's leaders will meet in the Qatari capital, Doha, today where SNC sources say that Riyad Seif, a respected dissident, is a leading candidate to head a "consensus-based" civilian administration. But Brigadier General Manaf Tlass, the most important member of Assad's inner circle yet to defect, is also being mooted as the head of an Egyptian-style supreme military council that could keep the Syrian armed forces intact and loyal, according to SNC officials and foreign diplomats.The group's leaders will meet in the Qatari capital, Doha, today where SNC sources say that Riyad Seif, a respected dissident, is a leading candidate to head a "consensus-based" civilian administration. But Brigadier General Manaf Tlass, the most important member of Assad's inner circle yet to defect, is also being mooted as the head of an Egyptian-style supreme military council that could keep the Syrian armed forces intact and loyal, according to SNC officials and foreign diplomats.
• Syria's ambassadors to the United Arab Emirates and Cyprus - a married couple - have become the latest senior figures to defect from the regime, the White House has confirmed. Spokesman Jay Carney said: "This is another indication, we believe, that senior officials around the Assad inner circle are fleeing the government because of the heinous actions taken by Assad against his own people, and the recognition that Assad's days are numbered."• Syria's ambassadors to the United Arab Emirates and Cyprus - a married couple - have become the latest senior figures to defect from the regime, the White House has confirmed. Spokesman Jay Carney said: "This is another indication, we believe, that senior officials around the Assad inner circle are fleeing the government because of the heinous actions taken by Assad against his own people, and the recognition that Assad's days are numbered."
• Arms control campaigners claim a first draft of a UN global arms trade treaty is meaningless as it would not stop weapons shipments from Russia to Syria. Anna Macdonald, Oxfam's head of arms control, said the draft would allow countries to honour existing contracts to states no matter how much circumstances changed. "This means Russia could continue to supply arms to Syria. That is a key test for us. Would the draft [treaty] stop Russia arming Syria? No it wouldn't," she said.• Arms control campaigners claim a first draft of a UN global arms trade treaty is meaningless as it would not stop weapons shipments from Russia to Syria. Anna Macdonald, Oxfam's head of arms control, said the draft would allow countries to honour existing contracts to states no matter how much circumstances changed. "This means Russia could continue to supply arms to Syria. That is a key test for us. Would the draft [treaty] stop Russia arming Syria? No it wouldn't," she said.
• The rebel-held town of Azaz (or Izzaz) north of Aleppo is ruins about after weeks of fighting, Reuters reports.• The rebel-held town of Azaz (or Izzaz) north of Aleppo is ruins about after weeks of fighting, Reuters reports.
Some houses have collapsed in heaps of rubble, pounded by tank fire, while the remaining buildings stand scorched or pock-marked with bullet holes.Some houses have collapsed in heaps of rubble, pounded by tank fire, while the remaining buildings stand scorched or pock-marked with bullet holes.
Burnt-out tanks struck by rebels' rocket-propelled grenades sit motionless on the town's roads, while spent bullet casings lay strewn across the ground next to an old leather Russian tank helmet.Burnt-out tanks struck by rebels' rocket-propelled grenades sit motionless on the town's roads, while spent bullet casings lay strewn across the ground next to an old leather Russian tank helmet.
A mosque in the town's centre that served as a base for Assad's army is now all but destroyed, scorched tanks and armoured vehicles immobilised in its courtyard. Sandbags stacked in the mosque's windows mark deserted army sniper positions.A mosque in the town's centre that served as a base for Assad's army is now all but destroyed, scorched tanks and armoured vehicles immobilised in its courtyard. Sandbags stacked in the mosque's windows mark deserted army sniper positions.
• The question is not how long Assad can cling to power, but will the authoritarian structure survive him? argues Fawaz Gerges director of the LSE's Middle East Centre.• The question is not how long Assad can cling to power, but will the authoritarian structure survive him? argues Fawaz Gerges director of the LSE's Middle East Centre.
Although Assad is bleeding, besieged internally and externally, and facing what appears to be a moment of reckoning, it may be too early to write his obituary or that of the authoritarian state. Assad still retains the backing of a loyal core of supporters, including non-Alawis. The security apparatus is still capable of deploying massive force to crush rebels, as witnessed over the past week. The structure of the police state seems to function, though less intact and effective than before.Although Assad is bleeding, besieged internally and externally, and facing what appears to be a moment of reckoning, it may be too early to write his obituary or that of the authoritarian state. Assad still retains the backing of a loyal core of supporters, including non-Alawis. The security apparatus is still capable of deploying massive force to crush rebels, as witnessed over the past week. The structure of the police state seems to function, though less intact and effective than before.