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Spain needs Mariano Rajoy to be decisive Spain needs Mariano Rajoy to be decisive
(about 1 hour later)
The political decline of Spain's president, Mariano Rajoy, has been overwhelming. It has been so fast that even the deterioration of Spain's risk premium, today on the verge of a full bailout, has been modest by comparison. In the spring of 2011, the Partido Popular triumphed in the autonomous and municipal elections, monopolising the largest amount of regional power in one man's hands in the history of Spanish democracy. In the autumn Rajoy triumphed in the general elections, achieving an absolute majority. The political decline of Spain's prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has been overwhelming. It has been so fast that even the deterioration of Spain's risk premium, today on the verge of a full bailout, has been modest by comparison. In the spring of 2011, the Partido Popular triumphed in the autonomous and municipal elections, monopolising the largest amount of regional power in one man's hands in the history of Spanish democracy. In the autumn Rajoy triumphed in the general elections, achieving an absolute majority.
Just a few months after these overwhelming victories, an increasing number of people think that he will be unable to complete his legislature. Some, both inside and outside his party, are already betting on who his successor will be.Just a few months after these overwhelming victories, an increasing number of people think that he will be unable to complete his legislature. Some, both inside and outside his party, are already betting on who his successor will be.
But this is not the first time that Rajoy has been given up for dead only to come back to life. In 2008, after losing in the elections against José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero for a second time, Rajoy was able to hold out against the pressure from a large part of his party who wanted him removed.But this is not the first time that Rajoy has been given up for dead only to come back to life. In 2008, after losing in the elections against José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero for a second time, Rajoy was able to hold out against the pressure from a large part of his party who wanted him removed.
That is his speciality: sitting things out. It is one of his main political virtues, but it goes hand in hand with what is undoubtedly his main vice: his habit of waiting, of not tackling problems, of avoiding tough decisions, and preferring to let time resolve the thorniest issues.That is his speciality: sitting things out. It is one of his main political virtues, but it goes hand in hand with what is undoubtedly his main vice: his habit of waiting, of not tackling problems, of avoiding tough decisions, and preferring to let time resolve the thorniest issues.
This way of managing politics already got him into trouble during his years in opposition, on subjects such as the resignation of the president of the Valencian Autonomous Community, Francisco Camps – a defendant in a corruption case that did not want to go away – or in an internal party struggle for the presidency of Bankia two years ago. But that habit of brushing problems under the carpet in the hope that they sort themselves out has led to much more serious consequences now that Rajoy is president of the country. This way of managing politics already got him into trouble during his years in opposition, on subjects such as the resignation of the president of the Valencian Autonomous Community, Francisco Camps – a defendant in a corruption case that did not want to go away – or in an internal party struggle for the presidency of Bankia two years ago. But that habit of brushing problems under the carpet in the hope that they sort themselves out has led to much more serious consequences now that Rajoy is prime minister of the country.
The errors of recent months are very clear today and the analysts of both the left and the right share the same diagnosis. Rajoy made a mistake when he did not name a shadow government more than a year ago to prepare for the transition. Instead of that, he preferred to keep quiet about who his ministers would be until the very last minute, so as not to have to give explanations to those he left out. The whole cabinet only knew what their portfolios were the day before taking possession of them, which delayed most of the appointments and the most urgent decisions.The errors of recent months are very clear today and the analysts of both the left and the right share the same diagnosis. Rajoy made a mistake when he did not name a shadow government more than a year ago to prepare for the transition. Instead of that, he preferred to keep quiet about who his ministers would be until the very last minute, so as not to have to give explanations to those he left out. The whole cabinet only knew what their portfolios were the day before taking possession of them, which delayed most of the appointments and the most urgent decisions.
Rajoy also made a mistake when he did not want to appoint a vice-president for economic affairs, at the very moment when this figure was most necessary. He did this so as not to go against treasury minister Cristóbal Montoro – a party man – who refused to accept Luis de Guindos, today minister of the economy, as his boss as vice-president. Montoro and De Guindos have a terrible relationship. But instead of resolving that problem and opting for one or the other, Rajoy decided to place both at the same level and not to appoint either above the other. This has caused numerous conflicts, because Montoro and De Guindos have totally contrasting views on many crucial topics – such as the raising of VAT or the bad bank – and they cannot work as a team. Rajoy also made a mistake when he did not want to appoint a minister for economic affairs, at the very moment when this figure was most necessary. He did this so as not to go against treasury minister Cristóbal Montoro – a party man – who refused to accept Luis de Guindos, today minister of the economy, as his boss. Montoro and De Guindos have a terrible relationship. But instead of resolving that problem and opting for one or the other, Rajoy decided to place both at the same level and not to appoint either above the other. This has caused numerous conflicts, because Montoro and De Guindos have totally contrasting views on many crucial topics – such as the raising of VAT or the bad bank – and they cannot work as a team.
Rajoy made another mistake when he delayed the state budget until after the Andalucía elections. Instead of approving it as soon as possible, he preferred to wait until March, to see whether the PP candidate would triumph in Andalucía – an autonomous region that has historically been in the hands of the socialists. This was a twofold mistake: not only did he lose those elections again, but he also lost some months that proved vital later. The budget came into effect just a few weeks ago and it has been necessary to amend it urgently at the last minute, by decree-law.Rajoy made another mistake when he delayed the state budget until after the Andalucía elections. Instead of approving it as soon as possible, he preferred to wait until March, to see whether the PP candidate would triumph in Andalucía – an autonomous region that has historically been in the hands of the socialists. This was a twofold mistake: not only did he lose those elections again, but he also lost some months that proved vital later. The budget came into effect just a few weeks ago and it has been necessary to amend it urgently at the last minute, by decree-law.
The same thing happened later with Bankia, chaired until the month of May by Rodrigo Rato, Aznar's former vice-president for economic affairs and a legendary figure within the PP. A part of the party – led by De Guindos – wanted him removed from this financial body. Others defended him. Rajoy could not decide and therefore lost several months before subsequently arriving at a chaotic intervention in the bank, which was the straw that broke the camel's back for the Spanish bailout. The same thing happened later with Bankia, chaired until the month of May by Rodrigo Rato, Aznar's former minister for economic affairs and a legendary figure within the PP. A part of the party – led by De Guindos – wanted him removed from this financial body. Others defended him. Rajoy could not decide and therefore lost several months before subsequently arriving at a chaotic intervention in the bank, which was the straw that broke the camel's back for the Spanish bailout.
Now Rajoy has to choose once again. In the absence of a decisive action by the European Central Bank – as desirable as it was unlikely – he only has two options left: ask Europe for a total bailout of Spain or attempt another alternative (which some within the PP defend): leave the euro, a default and a devaluation. Both are bad, but it is not clear which is worse. What does Rajoy do? For the time being, the usual thing. Hold out and hope. Now Rajoy has to choose once again. In the absence of a decisive action by the European Central Bank – as desirable as it was unlikely – he only has two options left: ask Europe for a total bailout of Spain or attempt another alternative (which some within the PP defend): leave the euro, a default and a devaluation. Both are bad, but it is not clear which is worse. What does Rajoy do? For the time being, the usual thing. Hold out and hope.