Non-aligned movement: a two-edged summit in Tehran

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/aug/29/non-aligned-movement-two-edged-summit-tehran

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The summit of the Non-Aligned Movement, which begins officially in Tehran tomorrow, is being hosted at great expense by a bankrupt Iran to prove a point: sanctions-racked it may be, but isolated it is not. The meeting is the biggest international gathering in the capital for three decades. The leaders or foreign ministers of 120 countries, and observers from 17 more, will be in town, however fleetingly, to prove the Supreme Leader's point.

Some of the callers – the Saudis, Bahrainis, Qataris – are Iran's neighbours, who are arming themselves to the teeth in case another Gulf war breaks out. But their presence should not surprise: they rarely miss an opportunity for a diplomatic knees-up with Iran. Others, such as the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, arrive with catcalls ringing in their ears. If America and Israel are foolish enough to broadcast their disapproval, they can only expect Ban's stock to rise commensurately.

The summit's most significant guest will be the new boy on the block, the Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi. His arrival is two-edged. On the one hand, he is the first Egyptian leader to visit Tehran since the Iranian revolution. On the other, his arrival fills a vacuum that Iran exploited in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and Iraq. Morsi is saying, and saying it with more speed than anyone predicted in June when he was elected, that Egypt is back as a regional player. That he arrives in Tehran fresh from a domestic political victory over his military will not have gone unnoticed either. He is both democratically elected and powerful.

Morsi comes to Tehran with a proposal that the four regional powers – Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt – convene a conference on Syria. Before dismissing this out of hand, consider what damage a fire burning uncontainably in Syria is doing to the interests of each of its three immediate neighbours.

Iran is quickly losing support it toiled at such cost to confect among the Arab people. A prolonged conflict in Syria makes it more vulnerable to an attack by Israel, and isolates its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon. For south-eastern Turkey, Syria spells trouble: more refugees, more attacks from Kurdish militants, more stirring of the Alawite minority in Turkey and more al-Qaida. And Afghanistan has taught a state like Saudi Arabia that what goes out generally comes back. The jihadis they export return one day, battle-hardened, to challenge the status quo at home. Each country must be thinking hard about a post-Assad solution.

Morsi is both a supporter of the right of the Syrian people to resist a brutal tyranny, and an opponent of foreign intervention. Unlike Turkey, Iran or Saudi Arabia, Egypt is not involved in the fighting. As all the alternatives are worse, a regional conference is not a bad place to start building a diplomatic solution.