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Inspectors Confirm New Work by Iran at Secure Nuclear Site
Inspectors Confirm New Work by Iran at Secure Nuclear Site
(17 days later)
WASHINGTON — Iran has already installed three-quarters of the nuclear centrifuges it needs to complete a deep-underground site for the production of nuclear fuel, international nuclear inspectors reported on Thursday. The finding is likely to affirm the belief of Israeli officials that President Obama must make clear his intention to halt Iran’s program or give tacit approval for Israel to act on its own.
WASHINGTON — Iran has installed three-quarters of the nuclear centrifuges it needs to complete a site deep underground for the production of nuclear fuel, international inspectors reported Thursday, a finding that led the White House to warn that “the window that is open now to resolve this diplomatically will not remain open indefinitely.”
The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the last to be issued before the American presidential election, lays out in detail how Iran has used the summer to double the number of centrifuges installed deep under a mountain near the holy city of Qum, while cleansing another site where the agency has said it suspects that the country has conducted explosive experiments that could be “relevant” to the production of a nuclear weapon. Based on satellite photographs, the I.A.E.A. said the cleanup has been so extensive that it would “significantly hamper” the ability of inspectors to understand what kind of work took place there.
The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the last to be issued before the American presidential election, lays out in detail how Iran over the summer has doubled the number of centrifuges installed deep under a mountain near Qum. Iran has also, the report said, cleansed another site where the agency has said it suspects that the country has conducted explosive experiments that could be relevant to the production of a nuclear weapon.
The report confirmed that a recent boast by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that Iran had added nearly 1,000 centrifuges to the underground site was accurate. But it left open the question of what, exactly, Mr. Khamenei and other Iranian leaders intended to do with those machines, and whether, by racing ahead with construction, they were seeking negotiating advantage or trying to gain the capability to build a bomb before sanctions, sabotage or military action could stop them.
Based on satellite photographs, the agency said the cleanup had been so extensive that it would “significantly hamper” the ability of inspectors to understand what kind of work had taken place there.
On Thursday, Ayatollah Khamenei reiterated his position that Iran is not seeking an atomic bomb, and he criticized what he called the hypocrisy of the American-Israeli campaign against Iran. In a speech to the 120-member Nonaligned Movement meeting in Tehran, the ayatollah also reminded the delegates that the United States is the only country that has ever used a nuclear weapon and that Israel has its own unacknowledged stockpile of nuclear weapons.
The report confirmed that a recent boast by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that the country had added nearly 1,000 centrifuges to the underground site was accurate. But it left open the question of what, exactly, Ayatollah Khamenei and other Iranian leaders intended to do with those machines, and whether, by racing ahead with construction, they were seeking negotiating advantage or trying to gain the ability to build a bomb before sanctions, sabotage or military action could stop them.
“A bitter irony of our era is that the U.S. government, which possesses the largest and deadliest stockpiles of nuclear arms and other weapons of mass destruction and is the only country guilty of its use, is today eager to carry the banner of opposition to nuclear proliferation,” the ayatollah said in his remarks, as translated by the state-run Press TV Web site. “The U.S. and its Western allies have armed the usurper Zionist regime with nuclear weapons and created a major threat for this sensitive region. Yet the same deceitful group does not tolerate the peaceful use of nuclear energy by independent countries, and even opposes, with all its strength, the production of nuclear fuel for radiopharmaceuticals and other peaceful and humane purposes.”
The report offers arguments for both sides in the debate over whether a military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites is necessary to prevent Iran from producing a nuclear weapon.
With senior Obama administration officials warning Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet that a military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites would be counterproductive, the report offers arguments for both sides in the debate.
The Israelis in favor of military action, led by Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the most outspoken proponent of moving quickly against the Iranian program, will point to evidence that Iran has now installed more than 2,100 of the roughly 2,800 centrifuges destined for the underground site, called Fordow. More than 1,000 have been installed in the past three months, since the last report by the agency. For Mr. Barak, that is evidence that the “zone of immunity” he has warned about — the point at which Iran will be able to produce nuclear fuel from a site invulnerable to attack — will be reached in a matter of weeks.
The Israelis in favor of military action, led by Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the most outspoken proponent of moving quickly against the Iranian program, will point to evidence that Iran has now installed over 2,100 of the roughly 2,800 centrifuges destined for the underground site, called Fordow. More than 1,000 have been installed in the last three months, since the last report by the agency. For Mr. Barak, that is evidence that the “zone of immunity” he has warned about — the point at which Iran will be able to produce nuclear fuel from a site invulnerable to attack — will be reached in a matter of weeks.
But American officials urging caution will find plenty in the report to bolster their view as well. Only a third of the centrifuges at Fordow are operating, the inspectors reported, leaving open the question of whether Iran had run into technical difficulties or had made a political decision not to tempt its adversaries by rushing ahead in moving production of fuel to its best-protected facility.
But American officials urging caution will find plenty in the report to bolster their view as well. Only a third of the centrifuges at Fordow are actually operating, the inspectors reported, leaving open the question of whether Iran has run into technical difficulties or has made a political decision not to tempt its adversaries by rushing ahead in moving production of fuel to its best-protected facility. And while the agency’s statistics show that Iran has, since February, doubled its stockpile of fuel enriched to 20 percent purity — a level that bomb experts say could be converted to bomb grade in a matter of months — it still does not possess enough of that fuel to produce a complete nuclear weapon. Most of its stockpile is composed of a lower-enriched fuel that would take considerably longer to make useful in a weapon.
The centrifuges being installed at Fordow, American officials noted, are of the old and unreliable model that Iran obtained from Pakistan, and they do not include any newer, more efficient models that the Iranians have claimed, for years, that they would move to.
Iran has declared, publicly and to the I.A.E.A., that it is producing its 20-percent-enriched fuel solely for use in a reactor that is used to produce medical isotopes for cancer treatments. A European diplomat pointed out on Thursday that Iran now had enough of the fuel to keep that reactor running for many years, though it has declared that it will continue producing it at a rising pace.
And while the agency’s statistics show that Iran has, since February, nearly doubled its stockpile of fuel enriched to 20 percent purity — a level that experts say could be converted to bomb grade in months — it still does not possess enough of that fuel to produce a complete nuclear weapon.
When first accounts of the report appeared last week, Mr. Netanyahu told a visiting American congressman that “just yesterday, we received additional proof of the fact that Iran is continuing to make accelerated progress toward achieving nuclear weapons while totally ignoring international demands.” He has also made the case that both diplomacy and sanctions have done nothing to slow Iran’s progress, hinting that a decision on military action would have to be made soon — by fall, according to Israeli officials.
Some of the 20 percent fuel is in a form that is extremely difficult to use in a bomb, and most of the stockpile is composed of a fuel enriched at a lower level that would take considerably longer to process for weapons use. Iran has declared, publicly and to the agency, that it is producing its fuel enriched at 20 percent solely for a reactor that is used to produce medical isotopes for cancer treatments. A European diplomat pointed out on Thursday that Iran now had enough of the fuel to keep that reactor running for many years, though the country has declared that it will continue producing the fuel at a faster pace.
The White House said that while the report was worrying, it was not what one senior official called “a game changer.” It shows steady progress, the official said, but he insisted that if Iran raced for a bomb, the United States would have plenty of warning, and time to act.
Iran has continued to allow inspectors inside the Fordow plant, to verify that it is not producing bomb-grade material. “They have been very strategic about it,” one senior American official said hours before the report was made public. “They are creating a tremendous production capability, but they are not yet using it. That gives them leverage, but they think it also stops short of creating the pretext for an attack.”
Moreover, Iran has continued to allow inspectors inside the Fordow plant, to verify that they are not producing bomb-grade material. “They have been very strategic about it,” one senior American official said hours before the report was made public. “They are creating a tremendous production capability, but they are not yet using it. That gives them leverage, but they think it also stops short of creating the pretext for an attack.”
The figures show that the number of installed centrifuges at the Fordow bunker has more than doubled since the last quarterly report, to 2,140 machines from 1,064. Of those, the inspectors reported, 696 are now enriching uranium to the 20 percent level.
President Obama has already declared that he would never allow Iran to produce a nuclear weapon. Just before Mr. Netanyahu’s last visit to the United States, Mr. Obama said he did not believe that a nuclear Iran could be “contained,” a statement meant to reassure Israel that, if Iran was on the brink of a weapon, the United States would take military action.
The report says that Iran has produced 417 pounds of uranium enriched to 20 percent. That is not enough for a single nuclear weapon, but for the first time, the figure exceeds the quantity needed to make fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. Iran has long pointed to that reactor as the rationale for its 20 percent enrichment.
Rick Gladstone contributed reporting from New York.
In discussing another site, called Parchin, the report said satellite images showed that the Iranians had undertaken “significant ground scraping and landscaping,” as well as the construction of new dirt roads.
“That’s strong language,” the diplomat said. “That’s as close as the agency is going to get in saying that the Iranians are cleaning up suspicious activity.”
David E. Sanger reported from Washington, and William J. Broad from New York. Rick Gladstone contributed reporting from New York.
