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Net migration 'needs deeper cuts to keep population down' Net migration 'needs deeper cuts to keep population down'
(about 4 hours later)
The UK's population can only be kept below 70 million if "much deeper cuts" to net migration are implemented by the government, a report suggests.The UK's population can only be kept below 70 million if "much deeper cuts" to net migration are implemented by the government, a report suggests.
MPs will debate the issue on Thursday after an online petition called for "all possible steps" to be taken to reduce population growth.MPs will debate the issue on Thursday after an online petition called for "all possible steps" to be taken to reduce population growth.
The government is promising to cut net migration to "tens of thousands".The government is promising to cut net migration to "tens of thousands".
But an Oxford University study says policy has to move "beyond rhetoric and into substance".But an Oxford University study says policy has to move "beyond rhetoric and into substance".
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has predicted the UK population is set to rise from 62.3 million in 2010 to 67.2 million by 2020 and 73.2 million by 2035.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has predicted the UK population is set to rise from 62.3 million in 2010 to 67.2 million by 2020 and 73.2 million by 2035.
Migration Watch, a think tank which campaigns for tighter immigration controls, was concerned at the effect this would have on the country's infrastructure and quality of life so organised an online petition, which prompted a parliamentary debate.Migration Watch, a think tank which campaigns for tighter immigration controls, was concerned at the effect this would have on the country's infrastructure and quality of life so organised an online petition, which prompted a parliamentary debate.
'Trade-offs' Projected UK population 2010-35 'Trade-offs'
Calling for measures to be taken to ensure the population stays "well below" 70 million, the petition has been signed by more than 143,000 people.Calling for measures to be taken to ensure the population stays "well below" 70 million, the petition has been signed by more than 143,000 people.
Net migration by citizenship 1991 - 2011
ONS figures released last month say estimated net migration in the year to December 2011 was 216,000 - down from 252,000 the previous year.ONS figures released last month say estimated net migration in the year to December 2011 was 216,000 - down from 252,000 the previous year.
It said the fall was not statistically significant, but ministers argue separate figures show they are on course to reach their target of reducing net migration to under 100,000 people a year by 2015.It said the fall was not statistically significant, but ministers argue separate figures show they are on course to reach their target of reducing net migration to under 100,000 people a year by 2015.
Ahead of the Commons discussion, Martin Ruhs, director of Oxford University's Migration Observatory, said: "There are three sets of key questions that this debate needs to cover. First, what are the objectives of population limits and why 70 million, rather than a higher or lower number?Ahead of the Commons discussion, Martin Ruhs, director of Oxford University's Migration Observatory, said: "There are three sets of key questions that this debate needs to cover. First, what are the objectives of population limits and why 70 million, rather than a higher or lower number?
"Second, what are the consequences and trade-offs involved? And third, how could the necessary cuts to net-migration be achieved in practice?""Second, what are the consequences and trade-offs involved? And third, how could the necessary cuts to net-migration be achieved in practice?"
He added: "If this debate is to move beyond rhetoric and into substance, it cannot be based on arbitrary numbers or undertaken without evidence. Our report looks in detail at the key numbers and issues, and at the trade-offs associated with the deep cuts to net migration that the 70 million limit would require."He added: "If this debate is to move beyond rhetoric and into substance, it cannot be based on arbitrary numbers or undertaken without evidence. Our report looks in detail at the key numbers and issues, and at the trade-offs associated with the deep cuts to net migration that the 70 million limit would require."
The Oxford University study finds that, based on the available projections from the ONS, the level of net migration would have to be considerably below 100,000 per year to achieve this target.The Oxford University study finds that, based on the available projections from the ONS, the level of net migration would have to be considerably below 100,000 per year to achieve this target.
Migration Watch argues net migration needs to be limited to 40,000 to keep the UK population permanently below 70 million.Migration Watch argues net migration needs to be limited to 40,000 to keep the UK population permanently below 70 million.
But the Migration Observatory found: "Reducing net migration from the current level of 216,000 to 40,000 would imply a reduction of over 75% - which clearly cannot happen without generating a wide range of important consequences and trade-offs."But the Migration Observatory found: "Reducing net migration from the current level of 216,000 to 40,000 would imply a reduction of over 75% - which clearly cannot happen without generating a wide range of important consequences and trade-offs."
MPs will debate the motion on immigration, put forward by Labour's Frank Field and Conservative Nicholas Soames, later.MPs will debate the motion on immigration, put forward by Labour's Frank Field and Conservative Nicholas Soames, later.