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| Elkhart travels Obama's slow road to recovery but struggles to feel the benefit | Elkhart travels Obama's slow road to recovery but struggles to feel the benefit |
| (30 days later) | |
| For the past three years Ed Neufeldt has been wearing the same green rubber bracelets stamped "Jobs for America". He plans to take them off when unemployment in his home town of Elkhart, Indiana, falls below 8%. That day appears, finally, to be approaching – albeit achingly slowly. "The whole United States is not doing that good," Neufeldt says. "But here we're better off than we were three years ago." | For the past three years Ed Neufeldt has been wearing the same green rubber bracelets stamped "Jobs for America". He plans to take them off when unemployment in his home town of Elkhart, Indiana, falls below 8%. That day appears, finally, to be approaching – albeit achingly slowly. "The whole United States is not doing that good," Neufeldt says. "But here we're better off than we were three years ago." |
| Few towns hold as much history for Barack Obama's presidency as Elkhart. This was the city where he fought to establish himself as the candidate of hope and change, first in a bruising encounter with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination and then for the presidency. On his road to victory, Obama visited here four times in 15 months, and in February 2009 he chose Elkhart for his first trip outside Washington since his inauguration. | Few towns hold as much history for Barack Obama's presidency as Elkhart. This was the city where he fought to establish himself as the candidate of hope and change, first in a bruising encounter with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination and then for the presidency. On his road to victory, Obama visited here four times in 15 months, and in February 2009 he chose Elkhart for his first trip outside Washington since his inauguration. |
| Neufeldt, then an unemployed recreational vehicle worker, was thrust into the national spotlight when he was chosen to introduce the newly inaugurated president of the United States at a local rally. "I am hoping and praying that president Obama will put the people of Elkhart County back to work. The stakes are high," Neufeldt said then. | Neufeldt, then an unemployed recreational vehicle worker, was thrust into the national spotlight when he was chosen to introduce the newly inaugurated president of the United States at a local rally. "I am hoping and praying that president Obama will put the people of Elkhart County back to work. The stakes are high," Neufeldt said then. |
| "I promised you back then if I was elected, I would do everything I could to help this community recover, and that's why I'm back here today," said Obama as he pushed the American Recovery Act, an $800bn stimulus plan he hoped would get America back to work. | "I promised you back then if I was elected, I would do everything I could to help this community recover, and that's why I'm back here today," said Obama as he pushed the American Recovery Act, an $800bn stimulus plan he hoped would get America back to work. |
| Back then unemployment in the area was 18%. Obama charmed the locals, playing basketball with children in the streets and dipping into local diners to the shock and delight of proprietors and patrons alike. And he made big promises. | Back then unemployment in the area was 18%. Obama charmed the locals, playing basketball with children in the streets and dipping into local diners to the shock and delight of proprietors and patrons alike. And he made big promises. |
| Four years on, Elkhart has gone from a symbol of Obama's message of hope to a perfect example of the biggest hurdle the president faces in his bid for re-election: the gap between empirical measures that show economic recovery, and the pain people continue to feel. That is why Obama will have one clear goal when he delivers his acceptance speech to the Democratic national convention in Charlotte, North Carolina on Thursday night: spelling out a compelling economic case for giving him four more years. | Four years on, Elkhart has gone from a symbol of Obama's message of hope to a perfect example of the biggest hurdle the president faces in his bid for re-election: the gap between empirical measures that show economic recovery, and the pain people continue to feel. That is why Obama will have one clear goal when he delivers his acceptance speech to the Democratic national convention in Charlotte, North Carolina on Thursday night: spelling out a compelling economic case for giving him four more years. |
| "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" Ronald Reagan famously asked voters in the 1980 campaign. It is the question that looms over the 2012 presidential election, and one which has dogged the Obama campaign this week as they have struggled to come up with a convincing answer. | "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" Ronald Reagan famously asked voters in the 1980 campaign. It is the question that looms over the 2012 presidential election, and one which has dogged the Obama campaign this week as they have struggled to come up with a convincing answer. |
| The data suggests the American people are. On Friday, economists expect the latest employment figures to show that the US added another 100,000-plus jobs last month. The US has added jobs every month since October 2010. There are other positive economic signs: car sales are bouncing back, and even the housing market seems on the mend. | The data suggests the American people are. On Friday, economists expect the latest employment figures to show that the US added another 100,000-plus jobs last month. The US has added jobs every month since October 2010. There are other positive economic signs: car sales are bouncing back, and even the housing market seems on the mend. |
| In Elkhart, too, the numbers say people are far better off than they were when Obama took office. Unemployment in the region is now around 8.9%, and the city, with a population shy of 51,000, is clearly on the mend. Local unemployment is still above the national average, just, but shipments in the RV industry, the area's biggest employer, are nearly back to pre-recession levels after hitting 20 year lows in 2009. | In Elkhart, too, the numbers say people are far better off than they were when Obama took office. Unemployment in the region is now around 8.9%, and the city, with a population shy of 51,000, is clearly on the mend. Local unemployment is still above the national average, just, but shipments in the RV industry, the area's biggest employer, are nearly back to pre-recession levels after hitting 20 year lows in 2009. |
| 'We're never gonna go under 8% unemployment' | 'We're never gonna go under 8% unemployment' |
| Life has got better, too, for Ed Neufeldt since he introduced the president during his visit. Now 72, Neufeldt is back in work, but things are not good enough for him to contemplate retirement. Once he lived in relative comfort, earning $20 an hour job at Monaco, an RV manufacturer that went bankrupt in 2009. Now he works part-time as a bread truck driver for $9 an hour, and has an evening job cleaning offices for another $11 an hour. It doesn't add up to his pre-recession income. "I had to work three years for a dime raise," he says. | Life has got better, too, for Ed Neufeldt since he introduced the president during his visit. Now 72, Neufeldt is back in work, but things are not good enough for him to contemplate retirement. Once he lived in relative comfort, earning $20 an hour job at Monaco, an RV manufacturer that went bankrupt in 2009. Now he works part-time as a bread truck driver for $9 an hour, and has an evening job cleaning offices for another $11 an hour. It doesn't add up to his pre-recession income. "I had to work three years for a dime raise," he says. |
| "When I met president Obama I really liked him, but I think because of automation and modern technology we're never gonna go under 8% employment," he says. | "When I met president Obama I really liked him, but I think because of automation and modern technology we're never gonna go under 8% employment," he says. |
| America's midwest and the Great Plains are rebounding from the recession faster than other parts of the country – helped in large part by the recovery in the auto industry that followed Obama's bailout. The region is home to three swing states – Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin – and in all three the economy is pulling, slowly, out of the doldrums. | America's midwest and the Great Plains are rebounding from the recession faster than other parts of the country – helped in large part by the recovery in the auto industry that followed Obama's bailout. The region is home to three swing states – Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin – and in all three the economy is pulling, slowly, out of the doldrums. |
| But it's far from assured that Obama can benefit politically from that recovery. In 2008, he became the first Democratic nominee to win Indiana in 44 years. And yet strategists in both parties say Indiana is the state he is least likely to hold on to in 2012. | But it's far from assured that Obama can benefit politically from that recovery. In 2008, he became the first Democratic nominee to win Indiana in 44 years. And yet strategists in both parties say Indiana is the state he is least likely to hold on to in 2012. |
| Summer Sellers, 33, is another Elkhart resident who was worse off in 2008. Several stints of unemployment eventually led her to the social media job she has now. And while Sellers admits that the enthusiasm Obama's visits generated in those early visits has faded, she still has hope that the people who voted for him in 2008 will return to the polls to cast a vote for him in November. | Summer Sellers, 33, is another Elkhart resident who was worse off in 2008. Several stints of unemployment eventually led her to the social media job she has now. And while Sellers admits that the enthusiasm Obama's visits generated in those early visits has faded, she still has hope that the people who voted for him in 2008 will return to the polls to cast a vote for him in November. |
| "I haven't really heard too much from other people about Obama staying in office versus getting somebody else," Sellers said. " I still have the feeling that people in my generation around here who voted for Obama before will vote for him again." | "I haven't really heard too much from other people about Obama staying in office versus getting somebody else," Sellers said. " I still have the feeling that people in my generation around here who voted for Obama before will vote for him again." |
| The RV museum, Elkhart's museum to the industry that provides two thirds of its jobs, is celebrating 100 years of RV evolution. Visitors walk a road that shows how the industry has developed from a 1913 Earl Travel Trailer, which looks like well-made a camp tent on wheels and is towed by a Model T Ford, past the rather modest RV Mae West used on set and spartan shining silver Airstreams on to today's hi-tech, Wi-Fi ready behemoths. | The RV museum, Elkhart's museum to the industry that provides two thirds of its jobs, is celebrating 100 years of RV evolution. Visitors walk a road that shows how the industry has developed from a 1913 Earl Travel Trailer, which looks like well-made a camp tent on wheels and is towed by a Model T Ford, past the rather modest RV Mae West used on set and spartan shining silver Airstreams on to today's hi-tech, Wi-Fi ready behemoths. |
| The museum's president, Darryl Searer, gives Obama little credit for Elkhart's turnaround, however. "I've witnessed four major recessions in my life: this one has lasted the longest," he says. "Why? I think because Washington is not business-friendly." | The museum's president, Darryl Searer, gives Obama little credit for Elkhart's turnaround, however. "I've witnessed four major recessions in my life: this one has lasted the longest," he says. "Why? I think because Washington is not business-friendly." |
| Searer sees himself as a political independent. When Obama was elected he was hopeful that something would change. But he says the administration has failed to tackle the housing crisis and is angry that it poured billions into saving the auto industry and other bust businesses that he believes should have been allowed to fail. | Searer sees himself as a political independent. When Obama was elected he was hopeful that something would change. But he says the administration has failed to tackle the housing crisis and is angry that it poured billions into saving the auto industry and other bust businesses that he believes should have been allowed to fail. |
| "When you reward failure, you just create more failure," he says. Elkhart's RV industry has bounced back but at the expense of other areas of the country that have lost market share, he says. It's survival of the fittest. | "When you reward failure, you just create more failure," he says. Elkhart's RV industry has bounced back but at the expense of other areas of the country that have lost market share, he says. It's survival of the fittest. |
| Searer, who says the RV industry has always been sensitive to the economic cycle, also runs Ultra-Fab Products, a parts business he says grew at 30% a year between 2003 and 2008 before the recession hit hard. After a couple of losing years, business is back again, but he doesn't believe Obama's policies have helped. "It's not because of government. It's because I figured out how to make money," he says. He says Obama is "anti-business". "I think everybody here had hope but as time has gone on it just hasn't worked out," he says. | Searer, who says the RV industry has always been sensitive to the economic cycle, also runs Ultra-Fab Products, a parts business he says grew at 30% a year between 2003 and 2008 before the recession hit hard. After a couple of losing years, business is back again, but he doesn't believe Obama's policies have helped. "It's not because of government. It's because I figured out how to make money," he says. He says Obama is "anti-business". "I think everybody here had hope but as time has gone on it just hasn't worked out," he says. |
| 'Obama hasn't done a thing for agriculture. I'd give him an F' | 'Obama hasn't done a thing for agriculture. I'd give him an F' |
| It's not just those in the RV industry that are disappointed. At the massive Elkhart County 4-H Fair, attendances are back to levels last seen in 2006. About 250,000 people visited in July to see children show off their prize sheep and cows, enjoy the rides, eat deep-fried Twinkies and other delights and watch '80s rockers Styx and Glenn Campbell on his goodbye tour. | It's not just those in the RV industry that are disappointed. At the massive Elkhart County 4-H Fair, attendances are back to levels last seen in 2006. About 250,000 people visited in July to see children show off their prize sheep and cows, enjoy the rides, eat deep-fried Twinkies and other delights and watch '80s rockers Styx and Glenn Campbell on his goodbye tour. |
| But agriculture is in crisis, too. Drought has sent the price of corn rocketing, and Obama's ethanol mandate will mean 40% of this year's crop is turned into fuel, keeping prices high. "I don't think Obama's done one thing for agriculture," says John Hochstetter, a local dairy farmer. He calculates the soaring cost of corn cost him $100,000 extra over July and August. He's not impressed with Mitt Romney, either. "A country is not a business," he says. But as far as Obama is concerned: "I'd give him an F." | But agriculture is in crisis, too. Drought has sent the price of corn rocketing, and Obama's ethanol mandate will mean 40% of this year's crop is turned into fuel, keeping prices high. "I don't think Obama's done one thing for agriculture," says John Hochstetter, a local dairy farmer. He calculates the soaring cost of corn cost him $100,000 extra over July and August. He's not impressed with Mitt Romney, either. "A country is not a business," he says. But as far as Obama is concerned: "I'd give him an F." |
| There are uglier views on Obama at the fair. "He's not even American. If I had his background, they wouldn't let me even board a plane," says one clearly angry lawnmower salesman before refusing to give his name. But mostly Obama's critics are more disappointed than angry. "A man can only do so much," says Phillip Ray, a retired RV industry worker. "But it's the economy that is going to decide whether he gets re-elected or not whether that's fair or not." | There are uglier views on Obama at the fair. "He's not even American. If I had his background, they wouldn't let me even board a plane," says one clearly angry lawnmower salesman before refusing to give his name. But mostly Obama's critics are more disappointed than angry. "A man can only do so much," says Phillip Ray, a retired RV industry worker. "But it's the economy that is going to decide whether he gets re-elected or not whether that's fair or not." |
| Douglas Agbetsiafa, a professor of economics at Indiana University, says the turnaround in the region has been "remarkable." Elkhart and the surrounding region was hit harder and faster by the recession than almost any other part of the US, he said. | Douglas Agbetsiafa, a professor of economics at Indiana University, says the turnaround in the region has been "remarkable." Elkhart and the surrounding region was hit harder and faster by the recession than almost any other part of the US, he said. |
| It wasn't until the end of 2010 that recovery really started to take hold, but by then the turnaround was dramatic, Agbetsiafa said. In the last three month of 2010 unemployment dropped from 17% to 13% and has continued to fall sharply ever since. Agbetsiafa says the stimulus money and the car industry bailout "probably did help, especially in the early stage." | It wasn't until the end of 2010 that recovery really started to take hold, but by then the turnaround was dramatic, Agbetsiafa said. In the last three month of 2010 unemployment dropped from 17% to 13% and has continued to fall sharply ever since. Agbetsiafa says the stimulus money and the car industry bailout "probably did help, especially in the early stage." |
| But it is very difficult to separate out what came from the stimulus and what from the area's historically business friendly policies. Who gets the credit may well ultimately be decided by political persuasion as much as economics, he says. | But it is very difficult to separate out what came from the stimulus and what from the area's historically business friendly policies. Who gets the credit may well ultimately be decided by political persuasion as much as economics, he says. |
| • This report was produced in conjunction with the Elkhart Truth newspaper. Read Tim Vandenack's report here | • This report was produced in conjunction with the Elkhart Truth newspaper. Read Tim Vandenack's report here |
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