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Ask Harry: answering your election 2012 questions on Quora | |
(35 minutes later) | |
Our wonk-in-residence at Guardian US, Harry J Enten, is a font of knowledge when it comes to the numbers behind elections. So, with just over a month to go until the 2012 US presidential election, we thought there was no time like the present to have Harry poke around on question-and-answer site Quora in order find – and answer – some of your burning questions. | |
Here's what he found: | Here's what he found: |
What voting options are there for those who feel disillusioned by both the Democrats and Republicans this November? | What voting options are there for those who feel disillusioned by both the Democrats and Republicans this November? |
You can vote for none-of-the-above (an actual option in Nevada) by writing in a fictional character like Mickey Mouse. | You can vote for none-of-the-above (an actual option in Nevada) by writing in a fictional character like Mickey Mouse. |
Why do a majority of respondents in a recent survey think Barack Obama will win 2012 Presidential Election? | Why do a majority of respondents in a recent survey think Barack Obama will win 2012 Presidential Election? |
Most people think Obama is going to win because Obama is very likely to win at this point. | Most people think Obama is going to win because Obama is very likely to win at this point. |
How likely is Vern Buchanan to lose his congressional seat? | How likely is Vern Buchanan to lose his congressional seat? |
Most district-by-district analyses, which take into account redistricting, have Republicans holding on to their majority by a fairly safe margin. | Most district-by-district analyses, which take into account redistricting, have Republicans holding on to their majority by a fairly safe margin. |
Why hasn't there been a recent presidential election poll in South Carolina as of 20 Sept 2012? | Why hasn't there been a recent presidential election poll in South Carolina as of 20 Sept 2012? |
The state is safe Romney territory. | The state is safe Romney territory. |
Leave them in the comments below, or use #AskHarry on Twitter. You can also help further the conversation on Quora by commenting on Harry's answered questions here. | Leave them in the comments below, or use #AskHarry on Twitter. You can also help further the conversation on Quora by commenting on Harry's answered questions here. |
'Unskewing' polls with party ID is, statistically speaking, bunk | 'Unskewing' polls with party ID is, statistically speaking, bunk |
Gallup and Rasmussen: the polling outliers that lean Republican | Gallup and Rasmussen: the polling outliers that lean Republican |
The '50% rule' misconception: how you can win with less than half the vote | The '50% rule' misconception: how you can win with less than half the vote |
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