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Presidential debate: the Romney factor Presidential debate: the Romney factor
(35 minutes later)
Mitt Romney should be winning. If, as the pollsters repeatedly tell us, the economy is the most important issue in this election – and more people say they have faith in Mr Romney's economic management than they do in the course the Democrat incumbent is setting – why is Barack Obama pulling away in key states? The economic statistics point to a healthy Romney lead: unemployment refuses to drop below 8%; disposable income has declined; second-quarter growth is anaemic.Mitt Romney should be winning. If, as the pollsters repeatedly tell us, the economy is the most important issue in this election – and more people say they have faith in Mr Romney's economic management than they do in the course the Democrat incumbent is setting – why is Barack Obama pulling away in key states? The economic statistics point to a healthy Romney lead: unemployment refuses to drop below 8%; disposable income has declined; second-quarter growth is anaemic.
All of which is grist to Mr Romney's mill. So why is Mr Obama leading by 18 points among women? This is important, because women are more inclined to vote Democrat than men are. Mr Obama is developing healthy leads in the eight swing states. In New Hampshire, he has built up a 15-point lead. The energy levels that drive people to get out and vote are with the Democrats, not the Republicans. Why? Other factors must be at work.All of which is grist to Mr Romney's mill. So why is Mr Obama leading by 18 points among women? This is important, because women are more inclined to vote Democrat than men are. Mr Obama is developing healthy leads in the eight swing states. In New Hampshire, he has built up a 15-point lead. The energy levels that drive people to get out and vote are with the Democrats, not the Republicans. Why? Other factors must be at work.
Could it be that Mitt's biggest selling problem is himself? He is no first-timer. This is his fourth attempt at running for any kind of election and, by now, someone in his menage should have figured how to iron out wrinkles in his image. But, apparently and incredibly, not. Polling by the Pew Research Center – and this was before last month's appearance of that infamous video in which Mr Romney said that 47% of Americans were dependent on government handouts – shows Mr Obama knocking spots off his rival when judged on personal qualities. Around 64% found Mr Obama inspiring, whereas 43% found Mr Romney hard to like; 51% felt proud of Mr Obama, 48% worried about Mr Romney. This does not mean Mr Obama is doing a good job selling his job-creation policies; it means that Mr Romney is doing an even worse job selling his.Could it be that Mitt's biggest selling problem is himself? He is no first-timer. This is his fourth attempt at running for any kind of election and, by now, someone in his menage should have figured how to iron out wrinkles in his image. But, apparently and incredibly, not. Polling by the Pew Research Center – and this was before last month's appearance of that infamous video in which Mr Romney said that 47% of Americans were dependent on government handouts – shows Mr Obama knocking spots off his rival when judged on personal qualities. Around 64% found Mr Obama inspiring, whereas 43% found Mr Romney hard to like; 51% felt proud of Mr Obama, 48% worried about Mr Romney. This does not mean Mr Obama is doing a good job selling his job-creation policies; it means that Mr Romney is doing an even worse job selling his.
On Wednesday night, in the first of three presidential TV debates, Mr Romney will have to achieve the impossible: no candidate who scored higher unfavourable ratings than favourable ones in September has won in the last six presidential elections. Mr Romney's 47% gaffe went down badly among independent voters. The New Hampshire figures are a further reflection of the disenchantment of independents. They should be his primary target because his party base has veered to the right, and yet, with Paul Ryan in tow, he is uniquely handicapped. Republicans in swing states are running away from the budget he produced. Mr Ryan may be even more toxic a running mate than Sarah Palin was for John McCain in 2008.On Wednesday night, in the first of three presidential TV debates, Mr Romney will have to achieve the impossible: no candidate who scored higher unfavourable ratings than favourable ones in September has won in the last six presidential elections. Mr Romney's 47% gaffe went down badly among independent voters. The New Hampshire figures are a further reflection of the disenchantment of independents. They should be his primary target because his party base has veered to the right, and yet, with Paul Ryan in tow, he is uniquely handicapped. Republicans in swing states are running away from the budget he produced. Mr Ryan may be even more toxic a running mate than Sarah Palin was for John McCain in 2008.
We live in the age of the self-defeating candidate, and Mr Obama should resist the temptation to smile at the sight of an opponent with such a facility to stumble. But he can at least head into tonight's television debate in Denver with one huge advantage: Mr Obama can be himself; Mr Romney cannot. We live in the age of the self-defeating candidate, and Mr Obama should resist the temptation to smile at the sight of an opponent with such a facility to stumble. But he can at least head into Wednesday's television debate in Denver with one huge advantage: Mr Obama can be himself; Mr Romney cannot.