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| Jaded Venezuelans weigh up options as Hugo Chávez stands for another term | Jaded Venezuelans weigh up options as Hugo Chávez stands for another term |
| (30 days later) | |
| In the sprawling Caracas barrio of Catia, María Rosales is wishing she had enough money to stock up on food before Sunday's presidential election. Her neighbours have already begun hoarding supplies in case the outcome is contested – either by the incumbent, Hugo Chávez, or his challenger, Henrique Capriles. | In the sprawling Caracas barrio of Catia, María Rosales is wishing she had enough money to stock up on food before Sunday's presidential election. Her neighbours have already begun hoarding supplies in case the outcome is contested – either by the incumbent, Hugo Chávez, or his challenger, Henrique Capriles. |
| Whatever the result, Maria says she is likely to stay close to home; she has little enthusiasm for either candidate. | Whatever the result, Maria says she is likely to stay close to home; she has little enthusiasm for either candidate. |
| It is a far cry from the euphoria and optimism of 1998, when María joined the crowds who surged on to the streets to dance and sing in celebration of Chávez's first election victory. She was pregnant at the time, and hoped her unborn child would have more chance under a president who promised to help the poor. | It is a far cry from the euphoria and optimism of 1998, when María joined the crowds who surged on to the streets to dance and sing in celebration of Chávez's first election victory. She was pregnant at the time, and hoped her unborn child would have more chance under a president who promised to help the poor. |
| Her daughter, Hecmary, is now 13, and María says those opportunities have failed to materialise, while day-to-day concerns have increasingly become overshadowed by the threat of violent crime. | Her daughter, Hecmary, is now 13, and María says those opportunities have failed to materialise, while day-to-day concerns have increasingly become overshadowed by the threat of violent crime. |
| "This is not the life I dreamed for her," says María. "We thought life would get better and it did for the first seven years. But since then, things have got more difficult. We're going from bad to worse." | "This is not the life I dreamed for her," says María. "We thought life would get better and it did for the first seven years. But since then, things have got more difficult. We're going from bad to worse." |
| On a global level, Sunday's election is about who controls and distributes one of the world's biggest recoverable oil reserves. For ideologues, it is a frontline battle between Bolivarian socialism and neoliberalism. But for most Venezuelan voters, it is about safety, fairness and a character who arguably inspires more love and hate than almost any other politician in the world. | On a global level, Sunday's election is about who controls and distributes one of the world's biggest recoverable oil reserves. For ideologues, it is a frontline battle between Bolivarian socialism and neoliberalism. But for most Venezuelan voters, it is about safety, fairness and a character who arguably inspires more love and hate than almost any other politician in the world. |
| Chávez is admired for his charisma and ideals, but castigated for poor management and a failure to protect his country's citizens from crime. His recent battle with cancer has added uncertainty and lowered his campaign profile, but he is still the favourite. Forecasts of the outcome range widely, however, and few are free from bias: in the past month, there have been at least 19 polls with predictions ranging from a 25-point lead for Chávez to a six-point win for Capriles. | Chávez is admired for his charisma and ideals, but castigated for poor management and a failure to protect his country's citizens from crime. His recent battle with cancer has added uncertainty and lowered his campaign profile, but he is still the favourite. Forecasts of the outcome range widely, however, and few are free from bias: in the past month, there have been at least 19 polls with predictions ranging from a 25-point lead for Chávez to a six-point win for Capriles. |
| Senior officials in the president's United Socialist party of Venezuela told the Guardian that the opposition was hyping the possibility of a close race to create uncertainty and lay the basis for a challenge to the result. They hope to shore up support with a huge rally in Caracas on Thursday – the final day of campaigning. | Senior officials in the president's United Socialist party of Venezuela told the Guardian that the opposition was hyping the possibility of a close race to create uncertainty and lay the basis for a challenge to the result. They hope to shore up support with a huge rally in Caracas on Thursday – the final day of campaigning. |
| Wandering through the streets of Altameira – an upmarket district of Caracas – the Guardian asked a dozen street vendors, parking attendants, taxi drivers, waiting staff and security guards how they planned to vote. Almost all of them voted for Chávez in the past. More than half said they would opt for Capriles this time. The main reason they gave was cambio – change. | Wandering through the streets of Altameira – an upmarket district of Caracas – the Guardian asked a dozen street vendors, parking attendants, taxi drivers, waiting staff and security guards how they planned to vote. Almost all of them voted for Chávez in the past. More than half said they would opt for Capriles this time. The main reason they gave was cambio – change. |
| The straw poll was hardly scientific, but it reflects what analysts describe as a trend away from Chávez despite the enormous oil wealth of Venezuela and the efforts made by the government to reduce inequality. Under Chávez, the proportion of the population living in poverty has fallen from a half to a quarter. There is free healthcare and education. Nutrition rates have improved. More than 20 universities have been built. Adult education campaigns have helped to improve literacy rates. | The straw poll was hardly scientific, but it reflects what analysts describe as a trend away from Chávez despite the enormous oil wealth of Venezuela and the efforts made by the government to reduce inequality. Under Chávez, the proportion of the population living in poverty has fallen from a half to a quarter. There is free healthcare and education. Nutrition rates have improved. More than 20 universities have been built. Adult education campaigns have helped to improve literacy rates. |
| To shore up his support before this year's election, Chávez has widened the state pension programme, raised the minimum wage by 30% and launched a scheme to build a quarter of a million homes. | To shore up his support before this year's election, Chávez has widened the state pension programme, raised the minimum wage by 30% and launched a scheme to build a quarter of a million homes. |
| But in the eyes of many voters, mismanagement, corruption and eye-watering crime rates have undermined the benefits of Bolivarian rule. | But in the eyes of many voters, mismanagement, corruption and eye-watering crime rates have undermined the benefits of Bolivarian rule. |
| María has benefited from an adult education programme and subsidised groceries. But she says food has become harder to find. "The food programme used to be great, but now you stand in line for a long time and often get nothing. Before Chávez, there was more choice." | María has benefited from an adult education programme and subsidised groceries. But she says food has become harder to find. "The food programme used to be great, but now you stand in line for a long time and often get nothing. Before Chávez, there was more choice." |
| For many voters, the president's achievements have been overshadowed by rising violent crime – a major concern for almost everyone the Guardian interviewed. By some counts the murder rate in Caracas is higher than that of Baghdad. Last year alone, the country's homicide rate tripled to 67 per 100,000 inhabitants, the highest in South America according to the Venezuelan Violence Observatory. The government says the rate is about 50 per 100,000. | For many voters, the president's achievements have been overshadowed by rising violent crime – a major concern for almost everyone the Guardian interviewed. By some counts the murder rate in Caracas is higher than that of Baghdad. Last year alone, the country's homicide rate tripled to 67 per 100,000 inhabitants, the highest in South America according to the Venezuelan Violence Observatory. The government says the rate is about 50 per 100,000. |
| On María's street, two people were gunned down last month, but she says she has grown accustomed to the violence. "In the past when someone was killed, everyone would go to see what happened. But now we just stay indoors to protect ourselves. There's nothing you can do. It's too common." | On María's street, two people were gunned down last month, but she says she has grown accustomed to the violence. "In the past when someone was killed, everyone would go to see what happened. But now we just stay indoors to protect ourselves. There's nothing you can do. It's too common." |
| Her daughter, Hecmary, never goes out at night and travels with friends by day. | Her daughter, Hecmary, never goes out at night and travels with friends by day. |
| Although Chávez has launched a new police force to try to tackle this, their neighbour Yibilady Jímenez says crime is why she too will vote against Chávez. "Nobody talks about food prices or holes in the road. When it comes to election issues, the only one people here talk about is security. It's always been bad, but it has become much worse." | Although Chávez has launched a new police force to try to tackle this, their neighbour Yibilady Jímenez says crime is why she too will vote against Chávez. "Nobody talks about food prices or holes in the road. When it comes to election issues, the only one people here talk about is security. It's always been bad, but it has become much worse." |
| In a sharply polarised society, fear of crime is one of the few issues that crosses the income and political divides. Diego Tirado was also born the year Chávez became president – in his case to a middle-class family that now owns a stylish Italian restaurant in a Caracas shopping mall. The teenager – who goes to a private Jesuit school – says he is scared of being kidnapped. His sister's college friends turn up in bulletproof cars with bodyguards. | In a sharply polarised society, fear of crime is one of the few issues that crosses the income and political divides. Diego Tirado was also born the year Chávez became president – in his case to a middle-class family that now owns a stylish Italian restaurant in a Caracas shopping mall. The teenager – who goes to a private Jesuit school – says he is scared of being kidnapped. His sister's college friends turn up in bulletproof cars with bodyguards. |
| At least a dozen of their friends' families have left the country in recent years, but not because of financial pressure or high taxes; under Chávez, many of the country's better off have maintained their lifestyle or even grown wealthier. Diego's mother, Julieta – who was among hundreds of thousands at a Capriles rally in Caracas on Sunday – says the wealth divide has not closed. "In the past 14 years, I think my rich friends have actually got richer. Some are Swiss bankers. Some supply the state broadcaster. They've always had money. Now they have more." | At least a dozen of their friends' families have left the country in recent years, but not because of financial pressure or high taxes; under Chávez, many of the country's better off have maintained their lifestyle or even grown wealthier. Diego's mother, Julieta – who was among hundreds of thousands at a Capriles rally in Caracas on Sunday – says the wealth divide has not closed. "In the past 14 years, I think my rich friends have actually got richer. Some are Swiss bankers. Some supply the state broadcaster. They've always had money. Now they have more." |
| "Economically, we have maintained our status, but our lives are not better because we are forced to live in ghettoes," said Jose Luis, Diego's father. "I hate that. We can't walk the street or go to the beach or the national park because we are afraid. I'd like to buy a house, but I don't dare to because it would make us more vulnerable." | "Economically, we have maintained our status, but our lives are not better because we are forced to live in ghettoes," said Jose Luis, Diego's father. "I hate that. We can't walk the street or go to the beach or the national park because we are afraid. I'd like to buy a house, but I don't dare to because it would make us more vulnerable." |
| The benefits of the Chávez era are more evident in the low-income neighbourhood of Guatire, where Danyely Lozada – another teenager born when he came to power – has grown up. | The benefits of the Chávez era are more evident in the low-income neighbourhood of Guatire, where Danyely Lozada – another teenager born when he came to power – has grown up. |
| She says things are getting better for locals. Although she is worried about crime and remains at home at night, she says the dangers are exaggerated and in any case have been reduced since a new national guard post was recently established nearby. Before the election, the local government has also resurfaced some of the roads and a nearby shanty town has been given breeze blocks to upgrade the wood and corrugated zinc homes. | She says things are getting better for locals. Although she is worried about crime and remains at home at night, she says the dangers are exaggerated and in any case have been reduced since a new national guard post was recently established nearby. Before the election, the local government has also resurfaced some of the roads and a nearby shanty town has been given breeze blocks to upgrade the wood and corrugated zinc homes. |
| There are limits to what the state has achieved. The family say they have received no benefits from government social programmes. When her stepfather, Marlon, broke his wrists in a traffic accident, he had free surgery but had to work for four months to pay for the pins and paperwork. | There are limits to what the state has achieved. The family say they have received no benefits from government social programmes. When her stepfather, Marlon, broke his wrists in a traffic accident, he had free surgery but had to work for four months to pay for the pins and paperwork. |
| Danyely's mother has taken on a job so her daughter can attend a private school and further her ambition of becoming a forensic clinician. "Public education is not good. There is too much sex and drugs," said Marlon – a former convict who is now an evangelical Christian. | Danyely's mother has taken on a job so her daughter can attend a private school and further her ambition of becoming a forensic clinician. "Public education is not good. There is too much sex and drugs," said Marlon – a former convict who is now an evangelical Christian. |
| He declares himself a Chávez supporter. "With him, the power is with the people. It's not that there is less poverty, but the poor now have more opportunities." | He declares himself a Chávez supporter. "With him, the power is with the people. It's not that there is less poverty, but the poor now have more opportunities." |
| Whether he has created enough chances and redistributed enough oil money to outweigh the growing risk of crime in people's minds is likely to determine Sunday's vote in this vibrant democracy. | Whether he has created enough chances and redistributed enough oil money to outweigh the growing risk of crime in people's minds is likely to determine Sunday's vote in this vibrant democracy. |
| "For the first time I am seeing a tight race. Either candidate could win," said Asdrubel Olivares, a political analyst at the Ecoanalitica consultancy. "The deciding element will be mobilising voters and this is an area where Chávismo has an advantage." | "For the first time I am seeing a tight race. Either candidate could win," said Asdrubel Olivares, a political analyst at the Ecoanalitica consultancy. "The deciding element will be mobilising voters and this is an area where Chávismo has an advantage." |
| Getting the public to join in decision-making is one area where even Chávez's fiercest critics agree he has brought improvements. "One good thing to have come from the Chávez period in government is the widespread conviction that the population have developed a greater right to participate," said Teresa Albanez, who oversaw the primary election for his rival Capriles. | Getting the public to join in decision-making is one area where even Chávez's fiercest critics agree he has brought improvements. "One good thing to have come from the Chávez period in government is the widespread conviction that the population have developed a greater right to participate," said Teresa Albanez, who oversaw the primary election for his rival Capriles. |
| "Chávez has institutionalised this and people have internalised this. That's good, but it is sad that he hasn't accomplished enough to benefit them." | "Chávez has institutionalised this and people have internalised this. That's good, but it is sad that he hasn't accomplished enough to benefit them." |
| Additional reporting by Virginia Lopez | Additional reporting by Virginia Lopez |
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