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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/oct/16/sting-jets-hurricane-michael-fish
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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Sting jet technology means no more hurricane mishaps for Michael Fish | Sting jet technology means no more hurricane mishaps for Michael Fish |
| (30 days later) | |
| When Danny Boyle featured weatherman Michael Fish's "no hurricane tonight" forecast in the Olympic Games opening ceremony, the failure of the Met Office to predict the Great Storm of 1987 was recognised as a significant British event. | When Danny Boyle featured weatherman Michael Fish's "no hurricane tonight" forecast in the Olympic Games opening ceremony, the failure of the Met Office to predict the Great Storm of 1987 was recognised as a significant British event. |
| In fact, the Met Office had forecast the storm – 25 years ago, on the night of October 15-16 – but had massively underestimated its intensity. The official excuse is that in 1987 there was no understanding of a phenomenon now called the "sting jet". This is what happens when cold dry air descends into storms high in the atmosphere; it has the effect of adding energy, which translates into much stronger winds. | In fact, the Met Office had forecast the storm – 25 years ago, on the night of October 15-16 – but had massively underestimated its intensity. The official excuse is that in 1987 there was no understanding of a phenomenon now called the "sting jet". This is what happens when cold dry air descends into storms high in the atmosphere; it has the effect of adding energy, which translates into much stronger winds. |
| "In 1987, no one knew sting jets even existed, but now they are well understood and included in forecast models", said a Met office spokesperson. | "In 1987, no one knew sting jets even existed, but now they are well understood and included in forecast models", said a Met office spokesperson. |
| The other 1987 myth was that this was the most powerful storm to have hit Britain since the last great "hurricane" in 1703. In fact, there are regular storms of this strength hitting the north coast of Scotland and the Cairngorms, even the Scilly Islands off Cornwall. What was unusual about 1987 was that the storm hit London and a swath of the most densely populated towns and countryside in Europe, causing more insurance damage than usual. | The other 1987 myth was that this was the most powerful storm to have hit Britain since the last great "hurricane" in 1703. In fact, there are regular storms of this strength hitting the north coast of Scotland and the Cairngorms, even the Scilly Islands off Cornwall. What was unusual about 1987 was that the storm hit London and a swath of the most densely populated towns and countryside in Europe, causing more insurance damage than usual. |
| The point was proved only three years later in 1990, when, in what is now known as the "Burns Day storm", much of England and Wales – but not London – was battered by similar winds, causing many more deaths and injuries, but the news received far less notice. | The point was proved only three years later in 1990, when, in what is now known as the "Burns Day storm", much of England and Wales – but not London – was battered by similar winds, causing many more deaths and injuries, but the news received far less notice. |
| Missing a great storm is something the Met office says "just does not happen any more". "It sometimes takes your darkest hour for a professional organisation to learn lessons, and we have learnt many lessons, "says Ewen McCallum, the chief meteorologist. "The science, technology and the way we communicate has come a long way since 1987 – our whole game has been upped. | Missing a great storm is something the Met office says "just does not happen any more". "It sometimes takes your darkest hour for a professional organisation to learn lessons, and we have learnt many lessons, "says Ewen McCallum, the chief meteorologist. "The science, technology and the way we communicate has come a long way since 1987 – our whole game has been upped. |
| "In 1987, computing capacity limited the resolution of the global model the Met Office used for weather prediction to gridboxes of 150km; now the model works at 25km on a global scale, giving vastly improved resolution. | "In 1987, computing capacity limited the resolution of the global model the Met Office used for weather prediction to gridboxes of 150km; now the model works at 25km on a global scale, giving vastly improved resolution. |
| "Our four-day forecasts today are as accurate as our one-day forecasts were in 1987. This means that we can now provide more advance warning when severe weather is expected to affect the UK." | "Our four-day forecasts today are as accurate as our one-day forecasts were in 1987. This means that we can now provide more advance warning when severe weather is expected to affect the UK." |
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