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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
|---|---|
| Foreign policy debate: Obama and Romney hoping to claim tie-breaker | Foreign policy debate: Obama and Romney hoping to claim tie-breaker |
| (30 days later) | |
| Barack Obama is almost certain to tout the ending of the war in Iraq and the timetable for the withdrawal from Afghanistan in tonight's third and final presidential debate. | Barack Obama is almost certain to tout the ending of the war in Iraq and the timetable for the withdrawal from Afghanistan in tonight's third and final presidential debate. |
| He goes into the contest with Mitt Romney at Lynn university in Boca Raton in an unusual position for a Democrat, with polls showing him regarded as strong on foreign policy and security, traditionally Republican areas of strength. | He goes into the contest with Mitt Romney at Lynn university in Boca Raton in an unusual position for a Democrat, with polls showing him regarded as strong on foreign policy and security, traditionally Republican areas of strength. |
| But that lead has been diminishing. A Pew poll this month found 47% trusted Obama on foreign and security issues against 43% for Romney. The changing story over the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, in which the US ambassador to Libya and three other Americans were killed, is also an area of potential weakness for Obama. | But that lead has been diminishing. A Pew poll this month found 47% trusted Obama on foreign and security issues against 43% for Romney. The changing story over the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, in which the US ambassador to Libya and three other Americans were killed, is also an area of potential weakness for Obama. |
| The audiences for the first two debates – 67 million and 65 million – are higher than those in 2008 and, though foreign policy is not usually of as much interest as domestic policy, there is likely to be big viewing figures again, not least because it is being billed as a tie-breaker. Romney clearly won the first and Obama edged the second. | The audiences for the first two debates – 67 million and 65 million – are higher than those in 2008 and, though foreign policy is not usually of as much interest as domestic policy, there is likely to be big viewing figures again, not least because it is being billed as a tie-breaker. Romney clearly won the first and Obama edged the second. |
| The format | The format |
| The debate, moderated by CBS veteran Bob Schieffer, is to be cut into six 15-minute segments covering: America's role in the world; Afghanistan and Pakistan; Israel and Iran; the Middle East and terrorism (two segments being devoted to this); and the rise of China and the future. | The debate, moderated by CBS veteran Bob Schieffer, is to be cut into six 15-minute segments covering: America's role in the world; Afghanistan and Pakistan; Israel and Iran; the Middle East and terrorism (two segments being devoted to this); and the rise of China and the future. |
| The two will sit at a desk with Schieffer rather than stand at a podium or wander around as in last week's town hall-style debate. | The two will sit at a desk with Schieffer rather than stand at a podium or wander around as in last week's town hall-style debate. |
| Debate preparation | Debate preparation |
| Obama has been studying and rehearsing at the presidential retreat Camp David, Maryland, while Romney has opted to station himself close to the debate, rehearsing at a hotel in Boca Raton. | Obama has been studying and rehearsing at the presidential retreat Camp David, Maryland, while Romney has opted to station himself close to the debate, rehearsing at a hotel in Boca Raton. |
| Obama has been practising, as for the first two debates, with senator John Kerry standing in for Romney. It is a lot of work for the stand-ins, having to read through reams of Romney speeches and interviews as well as video footage. | Obama has been practising, as for the first two debates, with senator John Kerry standing in for Romney. It is a lot of work for the stand-ins, having to read through reams of Romney speeches and interviews as well as video footage. |
| Romney too has stuck with same debate partner, senator Rob Portman. | Romney too has stuck with same debate partner, senator Rob Portman. |
| The issues | The issues |
| Obama starts from a strong position as the president who ended one war and is in the process of ending a second – and, on top of that, Osama bin Laden was killed on his watch. The Obama team put out an ad on Monday morning about the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, an indication that this is what he will play up tonight. | Obama starts from a strong position as the president who ended one war and is in the process of ending a second – and, on top of that, Osama bin Laden was killed on his watch. The Obama team put out an ad on Monday morning about the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, an indication that this is what he will play up tonight. |
| Romney has to try to undermine this by accusing the Obama administration of issuing contradictory statements over Libya. | Romney has to try to undermine this by accusing the Obama administration of issuing contradictory statements over Libya. |
| Obama has several lines of defence. He is helped by a CIA assessment that is the same as the Obama administration offered at the time: that the attack began as a result of protests over an anti-Muslim video and extremists took over. | Obama has several lines of defence. He is helped by a CIA assessment that is the same as the Obama administration offered at the time: that the attack began as a result of protests over an anti-Muslim video and extremists took over. |
| The president could politicise Libya more directly, as the Obama-supporting group American Bridge did today in a video, by accusing Republicans of refusing state department appeals not to cut the security budget. | The president could politicise Libya more directly, as the Obama-supporting group American Bridge did today in a video, by accusing Republicans of refusing state department appeals not to cut the security budget. |
| Iran is bound to come up, especially after the New York Times report that the US and Iran have agreed to one-on-one talks after the election, which the White House denies. | Iran is bound to come up, especially after the New York Times report that the US and Iran have agreed to one-on-one talks after the election, which the White House denies. |
| Romney is almost certain to raise again his claim that Obama has failed to support the Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu as much he would as president. | Romney is almost certain to raise again his claim that Obama has failed to support the Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu as much he would as president. |
| The strategies | The strategies |
| Both would like to appeal to the demographic groups they have been targeting in recent weeks, mainly women and Latinos, but it is hard to do that on foreign policy. | Both would like to appeal to the demographic groups they have been targeting in recent weeks, mainly women and Latinos, but it is hard to do that on foreign policy. |
| But there is one demographic that Romney could reach by focusing on proposed defence cuts. Virginia is one of the swing states, with lots of people employed by the defence industry and worried that spending cuts could mean the loss of their jobs. | But there is one demographic that Romney could reach by focusing on proposed defence cuts. Virginia is one of the swing states, with lots of people employed by the defence industry and worried that spending cuts could mean the loss of their jobs. |
| With no more debates after this one, neither can afford to make a major gaffe. In the end, it could be that the details of foreign policy matter less than likeability, a big factor in any election. The candidates have to try to find a balance between not being seen as being bullied by the other but at the same time not alienating viewers by interrupting or, worse still, a loss of temper. | With no more debates after this one, neither can afford to make a major gaffe. In the end, it could be that the details of foreign policy matter less than likeability, a big factor in any election. The candidates have to try to find a balance between not being seen as being bullied by the other but at the same time not alienating viewers by interrupting or, worse still, a loss of temper. |
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