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| Obama campaign struggling to win over Florida voters in 2008 numbers | Obama campaign struggling to win over Florida voters in 2008 numbers |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The banners, flags and T-shirts – Women for Obama, Hispanics for Obama, LBTG for Obama – plaster Democratic campaign offices in the hard fought swing state of Florida, just as in 2008. What's missing this time is the people. | The banners, flags and T-shirts – Women for Obama, Hispanics for Obama, LBTG for Obama – plaster Democratic campaign offices in the hard fought swing state of Florida, just as in 2008. What's missing this time is the people. |
| Four years ago Barack Obama's campaign was flooded by volunteers – the young in particular – excited by his vision of remaking America, and by the prospect of putting an African American in the White House. Now active support in Florida is visibly more sparse, and it may prove decisive as Democrats struggle to claw back the state from Mitt Romney. | |
| "This election's not as inspirational as the last one was," said Robert Obry, deputy field organiser at a near deserted Obama campaign office in Ybor City, a historic Tampa neighbourhood popular for its bars, music and cigars. "This one is more about straight politics. Even my grandmother, who is a Republican, voted for Obama last time which kind of blew my mind. This time she's not voting for him because she says not enough has changed." | |
| That kind of thinking crosses generations and is a problem for the president. But it's particularly significant as the Obama campaign throws its energies in Florida into getting out the vote – the "ground game" for which it was famed in 2008. | That kind of thinking crosses generations and is a problem for the president. But it's particularly significant as the Obama campaign throws its energies in Florida into getting out the vote – the "ground game" for which it was famed in 2008. |
| A month ago, Obama was comfortably ahead in Florida by as much as five points. After the president's disastrous performance in the first debate, Romney surged ahead by seven points in one poll. Two weekend opinion polls showed Romney just one point ahead, on 49%. | A month ago, Obama was comfortably ahead in Florida by as much as five points. After the president's disastrous performance in the first debate, Romney surged ahead by seven points in one poll. Two weekend opinion polls showed Romney just one point ahead, on 49%. |
| Other polls show women, Latinos and the elderly in Florida more or less evenly divided between the two presidential candidates with Romney picking up support because of concern about jobs. | Other polls show women, Latinos and the elderly in Florida more or less evenly divided between the two presidential candidates with Romney picking up support because of concern about jobs. |
| Under-30 voters: 'They're not there now' | Under-30 voters: 'They're not there now' |
| The one group that has remained consistently strong in backing the president is 18- to 29-year-olds. They accounted for 15% of the electorate in 2008 and voted two to one in favour of Obama – far ahead of any other group. | The one group that has remained consistently strong in backing the president is 18- to 29-year-olds. They accounted for 15% of the electorate in 2008 and voted two to one in favour of Obama – far ahead of any other group. |
| A Naples Daily News/Scripps poll released on Sunday showed voters under 30 continuing to support Obama by the same margin. The Democrats' challenge is to get the young to vote at all. | A Naples Daily News/Scripps poll released on Sunday showed voters under 30 continuing to support Obama by the same margin. The Democrats' challenge is to get the young to vote at all. |
| Susan MacManus, a former chair of the Florida elections commission and University of South Florida professor of political science, said that turn out by people under 30 is likely to be decisive in deciding who wins the state, and the signs are not good for Obama. | Susan MacManus, a former chair of the Florida elections commission and University of South Florida professor of political science, said that turn out by people under 30 is likely to be decisive in deciding who wins the state, and the signs are not good for Obama. |
| "Part of the '08 experience for young voters was communal: we can elect a black president, we can break one of the biggest barriers in America. And we can do it by all of us piling into these campaign offices and working 18 hours a day for a pizza and a beer occasionally. They're not there now," she said. | "Part of the '08 experience for young voters was communal: we can elect a black president, we can break one of the biggest barriers in America. And we can do it by all of us piling into these campaign offices and working 18 hours a day for a pizza and a beer occasionally. They're not there now," she said. |
| The president and first lady have campaigned at Florida university campuses to woo younger voters, impressing upon them the importance of getting to the ballot box. Florida Democrats are emphasising Obama's promise of lower interest rates on student loans, the healthcare law that allows young people to remain on their parents' insurance longer, and social issues such as gay marriage in drawing a distinction with Romney. The Democrats have poured energy into registering voters in colleges across the state and encouraging early voting which begins eight days before the election. | |
| Yet MacManus said that among her students she sees a stark contrast in attitude toward the election after Obama's message of hope and change four years ago gave way to emphasising fears of what will happen under a Romney presidency. | Yet MacManus said that among her students she sees a stark contrast in attitude toward the election after Obama's message of hope and change four years ago gave way to emphasising fears of what will happen under a Romney presidency. |
| "From what I'm hearing from a lot of the college students, they're offended by these two guys having what looks like a street brawl. They don't even want to listen to it," she said. "Can the Democrats find a way to break through all of the negatives in the ads, all the negatives in the debates, break through to the two groups of voters that are leaning in their direction but are getting very alienated by the negativity – and that's young voters, especially college students, and women voters? I don't know." | |
| Getting the young to vote is even more important in the numbers game because many conservatives who stayed away from the polls in 2008 because they were unhappy with John McCain as the Republican candidate are now fired up by a determination to get rid of Obama. | Getting the young to vote is even more important in the numbers game because many conservatives who stayed away from the polls in 2008 because they were unhappy with John McCain as the Republican candidate are now fired up by a determination to get rid of Obama. |
| Matty Budesa, president of the FSU college Democrats group, said she does not see a drop off in enthusiasm among young voters but she does recognise that the campaign is very different from 2008. | Matty Budesa, president of the FSU college Democrats group, said she does not see a drop off in enthusiasm among young voters but she does recognise that the campaign is very different from 2008. |
| "A lot of people were fired up for that election. It's not necessarily not as passionate this time, but maybe people don't want to care about it as much because it's sort of a scary thought," she said. "Young people really see what's at stake this time just because there are a lot of differences between the candidates as far as their views on issues young people care about: gay marriage, family planning, obviously different federal funding issues, the cost of education." | "A lot of people were fired up for that election. It's not necessarily not as passionate this time, but maybe people don't want to care about it as much because it's sort of a scary thought," she said. "Young people really see what's at stake this time just because there are a lot of differences between the candidates as far as their views on issues young people care about: gay marriage, family planning, obviously different federal funding issues, the cost of education." |
| Budesa said part of the Democratic strategy this time is not to emphasise that their vote can change the world so much as preserve what Obama has achieved. | Budesa said part of the Democratic strategy this time is not to emphasise that their vote can change the world so much as preserve what Obama has achieved. |
| "There's a lot of people telling them this election very much depends on you and this isn't the time to not be excited. This is the time to really step up," she said. | "There's a lot of people telling them this election very much depends on you and this isn't the time to not be excited. This is the time to really step up," she said. |
| 'I can't say I'm very excited about Obama anymore' | 'I can't say I'm very excited about Obama anymore' |
| Around the corner from the Ybor City campaign office, younger voters were not enthused. | Around the corner from the Ybor City campaign office, younger voters were not enthused. |
| "If I vote, I'll vote Obama," said Michael Foster, a 25-year-old recent graduate with no job. "But probably I won't vote. I can't say I'm very excited about Obama anymore." | "If I vote, I'll vote Obama," said Michael Foster, a 25-year-old recent graduate with no job. "But probably I won't vote. I can't say I'm very excited about Obama anymore." |
| Why not? | Why not? |
| "I don't hear him talking about our future. It's all for old people. Medicare, that kind of stuff. I really don't know who's going to be better for me to find a job. I thought it was Obama but I don't know," he said. "We all believed Obama would change this country. He's done some good stuff but the country hasn't really changed. It's the same shit." | "I don't hear him talking about our future. It's all for old people. Medicare, that kind of stuff. I really don't know who's going to be better for me to find a job. I thought it was Obama but I don't know," he said. "We all believed Obama would change this country. He's done some good stuff but the country hasn't really changed. It's the same shit." |
| Aaron D'Souza, an Obama campaign volunteer at the Ybor City office from London, said the ambivalence toward the election may also reflect complacency. | Aaron D'Souza, an Obama campaign volunteer at the Ybor City office from London, said the ambivalence toward the election may also reflect complacency. |
| "The lack of energy might be because people thought Obama had it in the bag, especially after Romney's 47% comment," he said. "Now they know it's not." | "The lack of energy might be because people thought Obama had it in the bag, especially after Romney's 47% comment," he said. "Now they know it's not." |
| The Democrats boast that with 102 campaign offices in Florida they have more than twice as many as the Republicans. Obry said the volunteers are still coming to the Ybor City office. But their numbers across the Tampa area are evidently down. | The Democrats boast that with 102 campaign offices in Florida they have more than twice as many as the Republicans. Obry said the volunteers are still coming to the Ybor City office. But their numbers across the Tampa area are evidently down. |
| The Republicans have noticed it, too. | |
| "The evidence of Obama is so sparse this time compared to four years ago," said Art Wood, chair of the Hillsborough county Republican party, which includes Tampa. "We started street corner sign waving a couple of months ago. Four years ago we often had Obama supporters on the other corner. I've yet to see a single Obama sign waver. We're up to three or four times a week in different parts of the city and not a single Obama sign waver." | "The evidence of Obama is so sparse this time compared to four years ago," said Art Wood, chair of the Hillsborough county Republican party, which includes Tampa. "We started street corner sign waving a couple of months ago. Four years ago we often had Obama supporters on the other corner. I've yet to see a single Obama sign waver. We're up to three or four times a week in different parts of the city and not a single Obama sign waver." |
| One of Obama's campaign press secretaries, Jen Psaki, last week denied rumours flying around the Republican team that the Democrats are diverting money and resources from Florida and two other battleground states, North Carolina and Virginia, in order to focus the president's bid for re-election on winning Ohio and three other close states where he is still ahead in opinion polls – Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire – which would be enough to put him back in the White House. | One of Obama's campaign press secretaries, Jen Psaki, last week denied rumours flying around the Republican team that the Democrats are diverting money and resources from Florida and two other battleground states, North Carolina and Virginia, in order to focus the president's bid for re-election on winning Ohio and three other close states where he is still ahead in opinion polls – Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire – which would be enough to put him back in the White House. |
| Psaka said the Obama campaign was "absolutely not" pulling back. | Psaka said the Obama campaign was "absolutely not" pulling back. |
| "We're still going to run in every state like we're five points behind," she said. | "We're still going to run in every state like we're five points behind," she said. |
| Signs of hope in early voting | Signs of hope in early voting |
| Democrats in Florida have some reasons for optimism. Their campaign to get supporters to vote early shows signs of paying off. | Democrats in Florida have some reasons for optimism. Their campaign to get supporters to vote early shows signs of paying off. |
| Republicans have traditionally led the way in Florida in supporters voting by mail but the numbers this year show that the Democrats have eaten into that advantage. | Republicans have traditionally led the way in Florida in supporters voting by mail but the numbers this year show that the Democrats have eaten into that advantage. |
| About 2.2 million people in Florida have requested absentee ballots – a 37% leap on 2008. About 42% of the requests came from registered Republicans while 39% were from Democrats. Four years ago, the gap was 14 points in favour of Republicans. | About 2.2 million people in Florida have requested absentee ballots – a 37% leap on 2008. About 42% of the requests came from registered Republicans while 39% were from Democrats. Four years ago, the gap was 14 points in favour of Republicans. |
| Of 275,000 absentee ballots already returned to election offices by mid-October, 44% came from registered Republicans while 40% were from Democrats. | Of 275,000 absentee ballots already returned to election offices by mid-October, 44% came from registered Republicans while 40% were from Democrats. |
| In 2008, Republicans were 17 points ahead at a similar stage. | In 2008, Republicans were 17 points ahead at a similar stage. |
| The Obama campaign director in Florida, Ashley Walker, latched on to those gains in an email to twitchy activists last week. | The Obama campaign director in Florida, Ashley Walker, latched on to those gains in an email to twitchy activists last week. |
| "In 2008, Republicans built up a huge advantage in vote-by-mail which Democrats obliterated during in-person early vote to win the state by 3 percentage points. In 2012, Republicans have a much more difficult task ahead since they have already ceded two-thirds of the vote-by-mail advantage they started with four years ago," she said in the message. | "In 2008, Republicans built up a huge advantage in vote-by-mail which Democrats obliterated during in-person early vote to win the state by 3 percentage points. In 2012, Republicans have a much more difficult task ahead since they have already ceded two-thirds of the vote-by-mail advantage they started with four years ago," she said in the message. |
| Republicans acknowledge that could be a problem for them, although they say they are concerned not alarmed. | Republicans acknowledge that could be a problem for them, although they say they are concerned not alarmed. |
| Republicans also point to a fall in the number of registered Democrats in Florida which has dropped by more than 94,000 to about 4.6 million. But that still puts the party ahead of the Republicans on 4.2 million. | Republicans also point to a fall in the number of registered Democrats in Florida which has dropped by more than 94,000 to about 4.6 million. But that still puts the party ahead of the Republicans on 4.2 million. |
| The Democrats' problem is that the previous experience shows that older people are much more likely to vote, and the older they are the more likely they are to vote Republican. | The Democrats' problem is that the previous experience shows that older people are much more likely to vote, and the older they are the more likely they are to vote Republican. |
| Alongside trying to get the young out to vote, the Obama campaign is trying to woo – some might say scare – older swing voters. The vice-president, Joe Biden, descended on the Sun City Center retirement community of about 19,000 people south of Tampa on Friday. John McCain took 60% of the vote there in 2008. | Alongside trying to get the young out to vote, the Obama campaign is trying to woo – some might say scare – older swing voters. The vice-president, Joe Biden, descended on the Sun City Center retirement community of about 19,000 people south of Tampa on Friday. John McCain took 60% of the vote there in 2008. |
| The local hall was packed, with lines of golf carts residents use to get around the streets on specially marked lanes parked outside. | The local hall was packed, with lines of golf carts residents use to get around the streets on specially marked lanes parked outside. |
| Biden, too, emphasised early voting. But the core message was that a Romney presidency will be a financial disaster for the elderly, not least over healthcare. | Biden, too, emphasised early voting. But the core message was that a Romney presidency will be a financial disaster for the elderly, not least over healthcare. |
| "This is not your father's Republican party. This is not even Mitt Romney's father's Republican party," said Biden. | "This is not your father's Republican party. This is not even Mitt Romney's father's Republican party," said Biden. |
| Ellen Harris, who retired to Florida from Pennsylvania, liked the message. But she acknowledge that it may not be having much effect on Florida's elderly votes. | Ellen Harris, who retired to Florida from Pennsylvania, liked the message. But she acknowledge that it may not be having much effect on Florida's elderly votes. |
| "It seems really weird to us here that more people wouldn't lean left on Medicare after all that crazy Republican primary stuff. Too many people watch Fox News," she said | "It seems really weird to us here that more people wouldn't lean left on Medicare after all that crazy Republican primary stuff. Too many people watch Fox News," she said |
| Harris said the Republicans appear to be running a more efficient campaign on the ground among the elderly. | Harris said the Republicans appear to be running a more efficient campaign on the ground among the elderly. |
| "We get four or five flyers a day from the Republicans or their supporters like the NRA. We hardly get anything from the Democrats," she said. "There's a lot of robocalls, too, mostly Republican." |