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Campaign Moods Shift as Contest Tightens Campaign Moods Shift as Contest Tightens
(35 minutes later)
BOCA RATON, Fla. — With 14 grueling days left in the campaign, President Obama is now facing what he worked so hard to avoid: a neck-and-neck race with a challenger gaining steam and stature when it matters most. BOCA RATON, Fla. — The last debate behind him and 14 grueling days ahead, President Obama is now facing what he worked so hard to avoid: a neck-and-neck race with a challenger gaining steam when it matters most.
Over the last month, through the debates and a gradual moderation of the conservative tone he struck during the Republican primaries, Mitt Romney undermined the Democrats’ expensive summertime work of casting him as the candidate of and for the rich, emerging as a far more formidable opponent than Mr. Obama had ever expected.Over the last month, through the debates and a gradual moderation of the conservative tone he struck during the Republican primaries, Mitt Romney undermined the Democrats’ expensive summertime work of casting him as the candidate of and for the rich, emerging as a far more formidable opponent than Mr. Obama had ever expected.
“For the first time in this race, I’d rather be us than them,” said Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, crediting Mr. Romney’s strength in the first debate as a critical shift in the campaign. “They spent months building him up as one thing and one night he disproved it.”“For the first time in this race, I’d rather be us than them,” said Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, crediting Mr. Romney’s strength in the first debate as a critical shift in the campaign. “They spent months building him up as one thing and one night he disproved it.”
Worries about complacency among Democrats only a month ago have devolved into worries of defeat. The race is suddenly so tight that both sides are eyeing a single Congressional district in Maine whose one electoral vote, in the event of an exceedingly tight outcome, could decide whether Mr. Romney or Mr. Obama is in the White House come Jan. 20. The president, aware of deepening worry among Democrats about the prospect of losing the White House, came out aggressively here on Monday night and belittled his rival’s foreign policy experience. He accused Mr. Romney of imposing “wrong and reckless leadership,” in a bid to keep voters from seeing him as a credible commander in chief.
The race is suddenly so tight that both sides are eyeing a single Congressional district in Maine whose one electoral vote, in the event of an exceedingly tight outcome, could decide whether Mr. Romney or Mr. Obama is in the White House come Jan. 20.
The growing sense of optimism inside the Romney campaign was visible in the newly relaxed faces of its senior advisers as they lounged poolside at their hotel in Delray Beach, Fla, before Monday’s debate, ticking through states where they see new opportunities and rising poll numbers. Back in Boston, a senior aide marveled at how much the mood had changed from one month ago, gallows humor giving way to a realization that “we’re in it.”The growing sense of optimism inside the Romney campaign was visible in the newly relaxed faces of its senior advisers as they lounged poolside at their hotel in Delray Beach, Fla, before Monday’s debate, ticking through states where they see new opportunities and rising poll numbers. Back in Boston, a senior aide marveled at how much the mood had changed from one month ago, gallows humor giving way to a realization that “we’re in it.”
Obama officials emphatically pointed to advantages they still hold in critical swing states as their life line.Obama officials emphatically pointed to advantages they still hold in critical swing states as their life line.
“This race has automatically tightened as everybody in the Obama campaign predicted that it would, but he’s ahead in the critical states,” Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, Mr. Obama’s debate sparring partner, said.“This race has automatically tightened as everybody in the Obama campaign predicted that it would, but he’s ahead in the critical states,” Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, Mr. Obama’s debate sparring partner, said.
But it is now unmistakable that Mr. Obama, long privately dismissive of his rival, is focused on protecting some of his safest turf and Mr. Romney is seeing new opportunities to take it.But it is now unmistakable that Mr. Obama, long privately dismissive of his rival, is focused on protecting some of his safest turf and Mr. Romney is seeing new opportunities to take it.
Though polls have shown a mix of results, it is more often than not Mr. Romney who is on the upward trajectory, if not always overtaking Mr. Obama, then, at least, cutting into his leads among important constituencies. For instance a CBS News poll released Monday showed his edge among women was down to 5 percentage points from 12 a month ago. Another, from CBS News and Quinnipiac University, showed Mr. Obama’s lead in Ohio among likely voters narrowing to 5 percentage points from 10 points last month. Though polls have shown a mix of results, it is more often than not Mr. Romney who is on the upward trajectory, if not always overtaking Mr. Obama, then, at least, cutting into his leads among important constituencies. For instance a CBS News poll released Monday showed his edge among women was down to 5 percentage points from 12 a month ago. Another, from CBS News and Quinnipiac University, showed Mr. Obama’s lead in Ohio among likely voters narrowing to five percentage points from 10 points last month.
Mr. Obama will spend the next two weeks pitting the campaign machinery he built to push his voters to the polls against Mr. Romney’s sense of momentum and new signs of hope in states that were tilting away from him before the first debate, the event that appears to have been pivotal for the Republican.Mr. Obama will spend the next two weeks pitting the campaign machinery he built to push his voters to the polls against Mr. Romney’s sense of momentum and new signs of hope in states that were tilting away from him before the first debate, the event that appears to have been pivotal for the Republican.
Yet Mr. Romney still faces more of a challenge in the Electoral College and must win more of the battleground states than does Mr. Obama, who won all of them four years ago.Yet Mr. Romney still faces more of a challenge in the Electoral College and must win more of the battleground states than does Mr. Obama, who won all of them four years ago.
And even as the Romney team basked in the new word being used to describe him — surging — they were planning intensive efforts to break through Mr. Obama’s firewall of supportive states while seeking new opportunities in places previously believed to be slipping out of reach, like New Hampshire and Nevada.And even as the Romney team basked in the new word being used to describe him — surging — they were planning intensive efforts to break through Mr. Obama’s firewall of supportive states while seeking new opportunities in places previously believed to be slipping out of reach, like New Hampshire and Nevada.
Underlying it all will be a defining fight, as Mr. Obama and his allies seek to recreate the image of Mr. Romney as a plutocrat whose policies will punish the middle class. Television ads from Democratic groups began appearing on Monday, reprising the accusations that Mr. Romney killed jobs to make a profit at Bain Capital.Underlying it all will be a defining fight, as Mr. Obama and his allies seek to recreate the image of Mr. Romney as a plutocrat whose policies will punish the middle class. Television ads from Democratic groups began appearing on Monday, reprising the accusations that Mr. Romney killed jobs to make a profit at Bain Capital.
Mr. Romney’s aides say voters now know Mr. Romney well enough to reject that image. They say they will continue to present Mr. Romney as a credible leader whose plans have a specific appeal to women, who have provided Mr. Obama much of his support in polls.Mr. Romney’s aides say voters now know Mr. Romney well enough to reject that image. They say they will continue to present Mr. Romney as a credible leader whose plans have a specific appeal to women, who have provided Mr. Obama much of his support in polls.
Heading into the final phase of their advertising war, Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama have contrasting imperatives.Heading into the final phase of their advertising war, Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama have contrasting imperatives.
Mr. Romney is seeking to win over the last remaining undecided voters — many of them 2008 Obama supporters — by presenting himself as a credible president ready to work in the bipartisan manner swing voters crave. Mr. Obama has to keep that from happening.Mr. Romney is seeking to win over the last remaining undecided voters — many of them 2008 Obama supporters — by presenting himself as a credible president ready to work in the bipartisan manner swing voters crave. Mr. Obama has to keep that from happening.
And that is making for a jarring contrast during the commercial breaks — giving Mr. Romney the opening to show himself as the transcendent politician of a sort Mr. Obama has sought to be as Mr. Obama pounds away at him in his commercials.And that is making for a jarring contrast during the commercial breaks — giving Mr. Romney the opening to show himself as the transcendent politician of a sort Mr. Obama has sought to be as Mr. Obama pounds away at him in his commercials.
For instance, here in Florida, Mr. Romney is showing an ad using video from the first debate. “We have to work on a collaborative basis,” Mr. Romney says over inspirational music as a split-screen image shows Mr. Obama looking down at his lectern. “Republicans and Democrats both love America, but we need to have leadership — leadership in Washington that will actually bring people together.” For instance, here in Florida, Mr. Romney is showing an ad using video from the first debate. “ “Republicans and Democrats both love America,” Mr. Romney says, “but we need to have leadership — leadership in Washington that will actually bring people together.”
From Mr. Obama, voters in Florida are seeing an advertisement in which the CBS News anchor Scott Pelley is shown asking Mr. Romney on “60 Minutes” whether he believed his effective tax rate of 14 percent on $20 million in investment income was fair “to the guy who makes $50,000 and pays a higher rate than you do?” After Mr. Romney answers affirmatively, an announcer says: “Lower tax rates for him than us. Is that the right way to grow America?”From Mr. Obama, voters in Florida are seeing an advertisement in which the CBS News anchor Scott Pelley is shown asking Mr. Romney on “60 Minutes” whether he believed his effective tax rate of 14 percent on $20 million in investment income was fair “to the guy who makes $50,000 and pays a higher rate than you do?” After Mr. Romney answers affirmatively, an announcer says: “Lower tax rates for him than us. Is that the right way to grow America?”
The question for Mr. Obama is whether that line of attack can still work. Aides to Mr. Romney argue that Mr. Obama and his allies ran so many ads painting Mr. Romney as plutocrat whose policies would harm the middle class that they turned Mr. Romney into an inaccurate caricature. It was shattered when he showed up as someone else — himself, they say — on the debate stage. The question for Mr. Obama is whether that line of attack can still work. Aides to Mr. Romney argue that Mr. Obama and his allies ran so many ads painting Mr. Romney as plutocrat whose policies would harm the middle class that they turned him into a caricature. It was shattered when he showed up as someone else — himself, they say — on the debate stage.
“He wiped out millions of dollars in attack ads portraying Mitt Romney as a rich guy from Bain Capital,” Senator John McCain said. Senator Rubio argued that “any future attacks against him are now taken with multiple grains of salt.” “He wiped out millions of dollars in attack ads portraying Mitt Romney as a rich guy from Bain Capital,” Senator John McCain said.
Democrats say they are confident about the continued power of their attacks against Mr. Romney based on his business practices at Bain Capital, as well as on his remarks that 47 percent of Americans are so reliant on government they will not take responsibility for themselves. Senator Rubio argued that “any future attacks against him are now taken with multiple grains of salt.”
Democrats say they are confident about the continued power of their attacks against Mr. Romney based on his business practices at Bain Capital, as well as on his secretly taped remarks that 47 percent of Americans are so reliant on government they will not take responsibility for themselves.
“It’s not that this line of questioning of his business record doesn’t have salience,” said Bill Burton, a senior strategist with Priorities USA Action, a “super PAC” supporting Mr. Obama. “It’s just that as we get to the end of the campaign folks need a reminder.”“It’s not that this line of questioning of his business record doesn’t have salience,” said Bill Burton, a senior strategist with Priorities USA Action, a “super PAC” supporting Mr. Obama. “It’s just that as we get to the end of the campaign folks need a reminder.”
The final two weeks of the campaign are playing out in eight states, with Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama crossing paths over the next two days in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and Ohio.
While Florida, Virginia and Ohio, with a combined 60 electoral votes, are the most sought-after prizes, the smallest states on the battleground map could be just as critical.
The best path to victory for Mr. Romney is to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio — and one more state, with campaign advisers putting Colorado at the top of the list.The best path to victory for Mr. Romney is to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio — and one more state, with campaign advisers putting Colorado at the top of the list.
The narrowest path to victory for Mr. Obama is by winning Ohio, Wisconsin and at least one other state — the president’s personal top favorite, aides say, is Iowa. Along with other safely Democratic states, that would be enough to block Mr. Romney from winning.The narrowest path to victory for Mr. Obama is by winning Ohio, Wisconsin and at least one other state — the president’s personal top favorite, aides say, is Iowa. Along with other safely Democratic states, that would be enough to block Mr. Romney from winning.
The advantage that Mr. Obama has in the Electoral College stems from 2008, when he expanded the map, creating more room for error in his re-election bid. It is a cushion that offers the most concern for the Romney campaign and the most reassurances to the Obama campaign.The advantage that Mr. Obama has in the Electoral College stems from 2008, when he expanded the map, creating more room for error in his re-election bid. It is a cushion that offers the most concern for the Romney campaign and the most reassurances to the Obama campaign.
As a sign of how tight the election could be, the president is heading to New Hampshire on Saturday to avoid what one aide described as “the Al Gore problem.” In 2000, Mr. Gore lost New Hampshire to George W. Bush, which made the entire presidential race hinge on Florida.As a sign of how tight the election could be, the president is heading to New Hampshire on Saturday to avoid what one aide described as “the Al Gore problem.” In 2000, Mr. Gore lost New Hampshire to George W. Bush, which made the entire presidential race hinge on Florida.