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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
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| Mitt Romney renews promise to label China a currency manipulator | Mitt Romney renews promise to label China a currency manipulator |
| (30 days later) | |
| Mitt Romney renewed his pledge to label China a currency manipulator "on day one" in the final presidential debate, arguing that the US was losing a silent trade war with the world's second largest economy. | Mitt Romney renewed his pledge to label China a currency manipulator "on day one" in the final presidential debate, arguing that the US was losing a silent trade war with the world's second largest economy. |
| Experts have warned that such a measure could backfire by provoking retaliatory action. | Experts have warned that such a measure could backfire by provoking retaliatory action. |
| Overall, the Republican candidate took a milder stance towards Beijing, telling viewers on Tuesdaynight: "We can be a partner with China; we don't have to be an adversary in any way, shape or form." | Overall, the Republican candidate took a milder stance towards Beijing, telling viewers on Tuesdaynight: "We can be a partner with China; we don't have to be an adversary in any way, shape or form." |
| But asked if he was formally accusing China of manipulating the renminbi and sparking a trade war, he replied: "There's one going on right now, which we don't know about it. It's a silent one. And they're winning." | But asked if he was formally accusing China of manipulating the renminbi and sparking a trade war, he replied: "There's one going on right now, which we don't know about it. It's a silent one. And they're winning." |
| "We have to say to our friend in China … you can't keep on holding down the value of your currency, stealing our intellectual property, counterfeiting our products, selling them around the world, even to the United States." | "We have to say to our friend in China … you can't keep on holding down the value of your currency, stealing our intellectual property, counterfeiting our products, selling them around the world, even to the United States." |
| The US has not labelled China a currency manipulator since 1994, though successive administrations have considered doing so. Some observers doubt whether Romney would actually follow through. | The US has not labelled China a currency manipulator since 1994, though successive administrations have considered doing so. Some observers doubt whether Romney would actually follow through. |
| Zhiwu Chen, professor of finance at the Yale School of Management, noted on his widely followed Sina Weibo account: "Romney can say anything before he becomes the president, but it may not count." | Zhiwu Chen, professor of finance at the Yale School of Management, noted on his widely followed Sina Weibo account: "Romney can say anything before he becomes the president, but it may not count." |
| The value of the renminbi against the dollar has risen by around 11% – when adjusted for inflation – since Barack Obama took office. The economist Paul Krugman, who has repeatedly called for pressure on China over the renminbi in the past, described its valuation as "an issue whose time has passed" in a blogpost on Monday. | The value of the renminbi against the dollar has risen by around 11% – when adjusted for inflation – since Barack Obama took office. The economist Paul Krugman, who has repeatedly called for pressure on China over the renminbi in the past, described its valuation as "an issue whose time has passed" in a blogpost on Monday. |
| Labelling China a currency manipulator would be a largely symbolic move – requiring only negotiations between the countries – and Romney has not committed himself to following up with concrete measures such as imposing tariffs. | Labelling China a currency manipulator would be a largely symbolic move – requiring only negotiations between the countries – and Romney has not committed himself to following up with concrete measures such as imposing tariffs. |
| "That might provoke a reaction. Simply saying it was a manipulator would draw an angry reaction from the press but I don't see it would [necessarily] have much more impact than that," said Alistair Thornton, senior China economist at IHS Global Insight. | "That might provoke a reaction. Simply saying it was a manipulator would draw an angry reaction from the press but I don't see it would [necessarily] have much more impact than that," said Alistair Thornton, senior China economist at IHS Global Insight. |
| Richard Bush III of the Brookings Institution wrote this week that the worst-case scenario was a trade war slowing growth and raising unemployment in both countries and raising inflation and interest rates in the US. | Richard Bush III of the Brookings Institution wrote this week that the worst-case scenario was a trade war slowing growth and raising unemployment in both countries and raising inflation and interest rates in the US. |
| But he said that was unlikely since China would probably claim the existing strategic and economic dialogue fulfilled the need for negotiations. Even if Romney wished to go further, he would need congressional approval – and the business lobby would most likely strongly oppose measures such as tariffs. | But he said that was unlikely since China would probably claim the existing strategic and economic dialogue fulfilled the need for negotiations. Even if Romney wished to go further, he would need congressional approval – and the business lobby would most likely strongly oppose measures such as tariffs. |
| "China could also impose some kind of tariff on US products as a way of fighting back. The US and China would end up in a lose-lose situation," said Gary Liu, the executive deputy director of the CEIBS Lujiazui Institute of International Finance. | "China could also impose some kind of tariff on US products as a way of fighting back. The US and China would end up in a lose-lose situation," said Gary Liu, the executive deputy director of the CEIBS Lujiazui Institute of International Finance. |
| He argued that the rebalancing of the Chinese economy away from investment and exports and towards consumption, which has long been advocated by its leaders but slow in coming, would be good news for the US and should improve relations. | He argued that the rebalancing of the Chinese economy away from investment and exports and towards consumption, which has long been advocated by its leaders but slow in coming, would be good news for the US and should improve relations. |
| According to figures released this summer by Pew Research, the proportion of people saying they are paying close attention to the presidential race is far lower than in 2008 in most countries – but has more than doubled in China (pdf) to 36%. | According to figures released this summer by Pew Research, the proportion of people saying they are paying close attention to the presidential race is far lower than in 2008 in most countries – but has more than doubled in China (pdf) to 36%. |
| The debate itself, viewable live on the internet but not broadcast by Chinese TV channels, was never likely to notch up a sizable audience in China given that it took place during working hours. But some people were determined to follow it. | The debate itself, viewable live on the internet but not broadcast by Chinese TV channels, was never likely to notch up a sizable audience in China given that it took place during working hours. But some people were determined to follow it. |
| "Do not miss any minute. Every round of debate might change the situation," the property tycoon Zhang Xin urged her 4.5 million Weibo followers shortly before the event began. | "Do not miss any minute. Every round of debate might change the situation," the property tycoon Zhang Xin urged her 4.5 million Weibo followers shortly before the event began. |
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