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| Florida Republicans bet on Romney's business sense: 'Jobs. It's always jobs' | Florida Republicans bet on Romney's business sense: 'Jobs. It's always jobs' |
| (5 months later) | |
| John Long couldn't bring himself to vote in the last presidential election. The head of Florida's Tea Party movement despised John McCain and Barack Obama in equal measure. | John Long couldn't bring himself to vote in the last presidential election. The head of Florida's Tea Party movement despised John McCain and Barack Obama in equal measure. |
| But next month Long will cast a ballot for Mitt Romney even though he regards the Republican presidential candidate as carrying much of the same baggage as McCain. The crucial difference for Long, who is pastor of a church set up for construction workers at Disneyland, is that after four years of Obama he would vote for anyone else. Plus, Romney has one overriding asset. | But next month Long will cast a ballot for Mitt Romney even though he regards the Republican presidential candidate as carrying much of the same baggage as McCain. The crucial difference for Long, who is pastor of a church set up for construction workers at Disneyland, is that after four years of Obama he would vote for anyone else. Plus, Romney has one overriding asset. |
| "The vast majority of people wouldn't have voted for John McCain if he was running unopposed. He was the worst nominee in the history of the United States," said Long. "Romney is better than McCain because McCain didn't have a lick of business sense. For all of the things over which Mitt Romney and I disagree, for all the ways in which he doesn't turn me on, I respect a man who promises to come to Washington and look at the United States government as a business. If Mitt Romney was an abortion supporter, if Mitt Romney favoured gay marriage, if he believed in global warming, I'd still be fine with him if he would go to Washington and run it like a business." | "The vast majority of people wouldn't have voted for John McCain if he was running unopposed. He was the worst nominee in the history of the United States," said Long. "Romney is better than McCain because McCain didn't have a lick of business sense. For all of the things over which Mitt Romney and I disagree, for all the ways in which he doesn't turn me on, I respect a man who promises to come to Washington and look at the United States government as a business. If Mitt Romney was an abortion supporter, if Mitt Romney favoured gay marriage, if he believed in global warming, I'd still be fine with him if he would go to Washington and run it like a business." |
| That view is increasingly expressed, albeit in less trenchant form, by once wavering voters across Florida – among the most important of swing states for Romney because there is almost no chance of him taking the presidency without winning it. | That view is increasingly expressed, albeit in less trenchant form, by once wavering voters across Florida – among the most important of swing states for Romney because there is almost no chance of him taking the presidency without winning it. |
| "I've been in there asking for a job," said Bob Brachett, a 38-year-old unemployed man outside a Staples office supply store – the chain Romney turned into a successful nationwide operation. "I did vote for Obama last time and I don't think he's a bad president or a bad man. I don't believe a lot of the things they say about him. But the jobs situation is very bad in Florida and I don't see Obama making it better. I'll take a chance on Romney." | "I've been in there asking for a job," said Bob Brachett, a 38-year-old unemployed man outside a Staples office supply store – the chain Romney turned into a successful nationwide operation. "I did vote for Obama last time and I don't think he's a bad president or a bad man. I don't believe a lot of the things they say about him. But the jobs situation is very bad in Florida and I don't see Obama making it better. I'll take a chance on Romney." |
| Various branches of the Republican party were for a long time wary of Romney because of what they called the "3Ms": Massachusetts, Mormons and money. | Various branches of the Republican party were for a long time wary of Romney because of what they called the "3Ms": Massachusetts, Mormons and money. |
| Social conservatives recoiled from Romney in the Republican primaries because of his support as Massachusetts governor a decade ago for legal abortion and gay rights, and his engineering of healthcare reforms, including a legal requirement to buy medical insurance, which provided the model for Obama's healthcare overhaul. | Social conservatives recoiled from Romney in the Republican primaries because of his support as Massachusetts governor a decade ago for legal abortion and gay rights, and his engineering of healthcare reforms, including a legal requirement to buy medical insurance, which provided the model for Obama's healthcare overhaul. |
| There was great suspicion within the Christian right, which regards Romney's Mormon faith as a cult. | There was great suspicion within the Christian right, which regards Romney's Mormon faith as a cult. |
| More pragmatic elements of the party leadership feared Romney's enormous wealth – he's worth about $250m – would cause many ordinary voters to discount him as out of touch with their problems. | More pragmatic elements of the party leadership feared Romney's enormous wealth – he's worth about $250m – would cause many ordinary voters to discount him as out of touch with their problems. |
| The Democrats certainly tried to exploit Romney's money: how he made it, where he banked it and how much tax he paid on it. The focus of the attack was Bain Capital, Romney's private equity firm, for shipping jobs to China. The Democrats also latched onto his shifting positions on abortion, gay rights and health care to portray him as insincere and desperate for power. At a campaign stop in Florida earlier this week, Obama repeatedly accused his opponent of being afflicted with "Romnesia", which causes him to forget his previous political positions. | The Democrats certainly tried to exploit Romney's money: how he made it, where he banked it and how much tax he paid on it. The focus of the attack was Bain Capital, Romney's private equity firm, for shipping jobs to China. The Democrats also latched onto his shifting positions on abortion, gay rights and health care to portray him as insincere and desperate for power. At a campaign stop in Florida earlier this week, Obama repeatedly accused his opponent of being afflicted with "Romnesia", which causes him to forget his previous political positions. |
| But less than a fortnight before the election all of that appears to count for less than the Democrats in Florida hoped. | But less than a fortnight before the election all of that appears to count for less than the Democrats in Florida hoped. |
| The key to the state is Hillsborough County, a fairly diverse area politically, economically and racially that includes the port city of Tampa. No presidential candidate has won the state since 1960 without taking Hillsborough. | The key to the state is Hillsborough County, a fairly diverse area politically, economically and racially that includes the port city of Tampa. No presidential candidate has won the state since 1960 without taking Hillsborough. |
| Obama carried the county with 53% of the vote in 2008, the same margin of victory for George Bush four years earlier. | Obama carried the county with 53% of the vote in 2008, the same margin of victory for George Bush four years earlier. |
| The chairman of Hillsborough's Republican party, Art Wood, is cautious in predicting which way it will go this time. But he regards the election as "dramatically different" from four years ago when Republicans found McCain "hard to embrace". | The chairman of Hillsborough's Republican party, Art Wood, is cautious in predicting which way it will go this time. But he regards the election as "dramatically different" from four years ago when Republicans found McCain "hard to embrace". |
| Wood said he had feared Romney faced the same problem, in part because of the 3Ms, until he shook up the election at the first presidential debate three weeks ago. | Wood said he had feared Romney faced the same problem, in part because of the 3Ms, until he shook up the election at the first presidential debate three weeks ago. |
| "The whole matrix Obama constructed about Romney collapsed with the debate. Obama was doing everything he can not to talk about his performance, not to talk about the economy. He spent months talking about how bad Romney was, how Romney hates women and Romney's in favour of tax cuts for the rich. Nasty labels. And then Romney starts talking and people see he's a decent guy," said Wood. | "The whole matrix Obama constructed about Romney collapsed with the debate. Obama was doing everything he can not to talk about his performance, not to talk about the economy. He spent months talking about how bad Romney was, how Romney hates women and Romney's in favour of tax cuts for the rich. Nasty labels. And then Romney starts talking and people see he's a decent guy," said Wood. |
| "He's raised five kids that are the all-American family and Obama was raised in Indonesia and Kenya. That matrix, that charade, that whole story he constructed about Romney … it just started collapsing. It wasn't that Romney was more persuasive. It was that what so many voters thought about Romney collapsed." | "He's raised five kids that are the all-American family and Obama was raised in Indonesia and Kenya. That matrix, that charade, that whole story he constructed about Romney … it just started collapsing. It wasn't that Romney was more persuasive. It was that what so many voters thought about Romney collapsed." |
| Part of Romney's support is constructed on a visceral dislike of Obama with overtones of racism. Among the more popular Republican campaign signs is: Take Our Country Back. | Part of Romney's support is constructed on a visceral dislike of Obama with overtones of racism. Among the more popular Republican campaign signs is: Take Our Country Back. |
| Evangelical preachers have for months been telling their congregations that abstaining in 2008 because they did not like McCain was a disaster that let Obama slip into the White House with an un-American agenda. The message has gone out that not voting is a vote for Obama. The Christian right has embraced it and set aside concerns about Romney's religion and earlier positions on abortion and gay rights. | Evangelical preachers have for months been telling their congregations that abstaining in 2008 because they did not like McCain was a disaster that let Obama slip into the White House with an un-American agenda. The message has gone out that not voting is a vote for Obama. The Christian right has embraced it and set aside concerns about Romney's religion and earlier positions on abortion and gay rights. |
| But if Romney takes Florida it will be because of the bounce in the polls that followed the first presidential debate. Romney went from up to nine percentage points behind just a week earlier to seven points ahead after the first debate. | But if Romney takes Florida it will be because of the bounce in the polls that followed the first presidential debate. Romney went from up to nine percentage points behind just a week earlier to seven points ahead after the first debate. |
| Obama has since narrowed the gap but Romney retains a consistent lead. With the battering to the president's attempts to paint his opponent as incapable and out of touch, many Florida voters appear to have given the Republican candidate a second look. | Obama has since narrowed the gap but Romney retains a consistent lead. With the battering to the president's attempts to paint his opponent as incapable and out of touch, many Florida voters appear to have given the Republican candidate a second look. |
| Political scientists say research shows a strengthening support for Romney among women worried about jobs and the impact of the economic crisis on their families. | Political scientists say research shows a strengthening support for Romney among women worried about jobs and the impact of the economic crisis on their families. |
| Latinos in Florida voted 57% for Obama four years ago. Now Romney is two percentage points up with them – despite Obama's claim on Wednesday that they would swing the election in his favour. | Latinos in Florida voted 57% for Obama four years ago. Now Romney is two percentage points up with them – despite Obama's claim on Wednesday that they would swing the election in his favour. |
| "Hispanics are basically Republicans – except when you get to the immigration issue," said Wood. "What I believe is happening is the Hispanics are willing to make the immigration issue a second-tier issue this time around. It's not that it isn't very important but they realise the matter of jobs is more important this time." | "Hispanics are basically Republicans – except when you get to the immigration issue," said Wood. "What I believe is happening is the Hispanics are willing to make the immigration issue a second-tier issue this time around. It's not that it isn't very important but they realise the matter of jobs is more important this time." |
| Wood said the shift since the first debate energised Republicans into believing that perhaps, after all, their man could win. | Wood said the shift since the first debate energised Republicans into believing that perhaps, after all, their man could win. |
| "There were an incredible number of Republicans [who] stayed home four years ago. The signs are that many of them will now vote," he said. | "There were an incredible number of Republicans [who] stayed home four years ago. The signs are that many of them will now vote," he said. |
| Margaret Iuculano, a Republican candidate for county commissioner, said she has knocked on 30,000 doors campaigning over the past year. | Margaret Iuculano, a Republican candidate for county commissioner, said she has knocked on 30,000 doors campaigning over the past year. |
| "Early on there was a ton of indecisiveness out there. I've seen just a huge turn in the past weeks. Plenty of soft Democrats are voting for Romney," she said. "People are much more educated on some of the issues. Jobs. It's always jobs. It's Romney's business experience that plays well. I have a lot of those conversations. | "Early on there was a ton of indecisiveness out there. I've seen just a huge turn in the past weeks. Plenty of soft Democrats are voting for Romney," she said. "People are much more educated on some of the issues. Jobs. It's always jobs. It's Romney's business experience that plays well. I have a lot of those conversations. |
| "I'm praying that what I see is factual and not wishful thinking, but I definitely see a surge in energy. I walked a neighbourhood last weekend with a lot of Republicans who hadn't voted in elections. We knocked on a lot of doors and they mostly said they were coming out to vote. We have to see if they do." | "I'm praying that what I see is factual and not wishful thinking, but I definitely see a surge in energy. I walked a neighbourhood last weekend with a lot of Republicans who hadn't voted in elections. We knocked on a lot of doors and they mostly said they were coming out to vote. We have to see if they do." |
| Democrats have dismissed Republicans claims of a surge in support as "bluster", and say they have a well organised "ground game" to get supporters out when early voting begins on Saturday that will ultimately deliver the state to Obama. But Democratic activists concede that there does not appear to be the same level of enthusiasm among young voters as there was in 2008 when Obama relied heavily on support in college towns in Florida to win the state. | Democrats have dismissed Republicans claims of a surge in support as "bluster", and say they have a well organised "ground game" to get supporters out when early voting begins on Saturday that will ultimately deliver the state to Obama. But Democratic activists concede that there does not appear to be the same level of enthusiasm among young voters as there was in 2008 when Obama relied heavily on support in college towns in Florida to win the state. |
| The Democratic strategy to highlight the threat to Medicare – the government healthcare programme for the elderly – if Romney is elected also appears not to have had the impact the party hoped in Florida. | The Democratic strategy to highlight the threat to Medicare – the government healthcare programme for the elderly – if Romney is elected also appears not to have had the impact the party hoped in Florida. |
| Susan MacManus, a former chair of the Florida elections commission and a University of South Florida professor of political science, said that is in part because many retired people in the state, who often only move to Florida during the winter for the sun, are prosperous. | Susan MacManus, a former chair of the Florida elections commission and a University of South Florida professor of political science, said that is in part because many retired people in the state, who often only move to Florida during the winter for the sun, are prosperous. |
| "Compared to a senior in Philadelphia or Detroit, the seniors here are younger, healthier, wealthier, better educated. Not as dependent upon Medicare. Plus you also have to take into consideration: seniors vote 42% registered Republicans, 41% Democrats and the rest no party affiliation. They're sticking to their candidate on Medicare. They're not threatened by it," she said. | "Compared to a senior in Philadelphia or Detroit, the seniors here are younger, healthier, wealthier, better educated. Not as dependent upon Medicare. Plus you also have to take into consideration: seniors vote 42% registered Republicans, 41% Democrats and the rest no party affiliation. They're sticking to their candidate on Medicare. They're not threatened by it," she said. |
| MacManus said that her research shows that many retirees are more likely to be concerned about the economy. | MacManus said that her research shows that many retirees are more likely to be concerned about the economy. |
| "A huge problem for a lot of older voters is the debt. Suddenly they're getting a call from a frantic adult child saying I'm going to lose my home, I can't make they mortgage payment, I lost my job. Retirees were shocked America could be headed toward another great depression. The deficit is a bigger issue here and it's very motivating to people. They really worry about the economic direction of the country," she said. | "A huge problem for a lot of older voters is the debt. Suddenly they're getting a call from a frantic adult child saying I'm going to lose my home, I can't make they mortgage payment, I lost my job. Retirees were shocked America could be headed toward another great depression. The deficit is a bigger issue here and it's very motivating to people. They really worry about the economic direction of the country," she said. |
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