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| In Final Days of the Race, Fighting County by County | In Final Days of the Race, Fighting County by County |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| WESTERVILLE, Ohio — President Obama and Mitt Romney are plunging into the final nine days of a multibillion-dollar presidential race focused not only on the seven most competitive states, but also on battleground counties within them that could tip the balance of an exceedingly close contest. | |
| They include the suburbs here in Franklin County, Ohio, where many young married women turned to Mr. Obama in 2008 out of frustration with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan but could turn against him now for perceived failures on his campaign promises and a slow-to-recover economy. | |
| In Colorado, it is Arapahoe County, where Mr. Romney’s campaign is courting Hispanic business owners who are frustrated with the national health care law. It is Hillsborough County in Florida, where both sides agree that whoever wins the independent voters is likely to be president. | In Colorado, it is Arapahoe County, where Mr. Romney’s campaign is courting Hispanic business owners who are frustrated with the national health care law. It is Hillsborough County in Florida, where both sides agree that whoever wins the independent voters is likely to be president. |
| At this late stage of the race, the fight for the White House is being waged on intensely local terrain, in places whose voting histories and demographics have been studied in minute detail by both sides. Mr. Obama is intent on replicating an electorate that swept him into office four years ago and is heavily dependent on younger, female and minority voters. Mr. Romney is relying on an older, whiter and more conservative voting group, along the lines of the ones that turned out in 2004 and 2010. | |
| The Romney campaign, worried about its options in the seven top battleground states, opened a fund-raising drive on Saturday to try and expand the playing field into Pennsylvania and Minnesota, two states that Mr. Obama has considered safe. Mr. Romney is also making a deeper push this week into Wisconsin, which he will visit for the first time in two months. | The Romney campaign, worried about its options in the seven top battleground states, opened a fund-raising drive on Saturday to try and expand the playing field into Pennsylvania and Minnesota, two states that Mr. Obama has considered safe. Mr. Romney is also making a deeper push this week into Wisconsin, which he will visit for the first time in two months. |
| “The switch that went on after that first debate is still on,” said Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, a Republican. “I still think people are undecided, they are still listening.” | “The switch that went on after that first debate is still on,” said Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, a Republican. “I still think people are undecided, they are still listening.” |
| Obama loyalists are wondering whether the campaign organization, with its focus on the mechanics of getting its voters to the polls, was built to withstand late decisions by voters to give Mr. Romney another look. The president flew to New Hampshire on Saturday — the last day to register to vote by mail — to protect the state’s four electoral votes in hopes of avoiding a narrow loss or an Electoral College tie. | |
| The biggest fear for Mr. Obama’s team is that a large number of voters suddenly will get so fed up with the back-and-forth of the campaign, the economic outlook and the partisan rancor that they break for Mr. Romney, if only to try something new in Washington. | The biggest fear for Mr. Obama’s team is that a large number of voters suddenly will get so fed up with the back-and-forth of the campaign, the economic outlook and the partisan rancor that they break for Mr. Romney, if only to try something new in Washington. |
| The biggest fear for Mr. Romney’s campaign is that he is coasting on a wave of enthusiasm rather than building upon it. Or in the words of one top campaign adviser: “Did we peak too soon?” | The biggest fear for Mr. Romney’s campaign is that he is coasting on a wave of enthusiasm rather than building upon it. Or in the words of one top campaign adviser: “Did we peak too soon?” |
| Mr. Obama now has a solid lead in states that account for 185 electoral votes, and he is well positioned in states representing 58 more, for a total of 243, according to a ranking of states by The New York Times, based on polls and interviews with strategists in both campaigns. | Mr. Obama now has a solid lead in states that account for 185 electoral votes, and he is well positioned in states representing 58 more, for a total of 243, according to a ranking of states by The New York Times, based on polls and interviews with strategists in both campaigns. |
| Mr. Romney has solid leads in states with 180 electoral votes and is well positioned in states with 26 more, according to the Times rating, for a total of 206. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. | Mr. Romney has solid leads in states with 180 electoral votes and is well positioned in states with 26 more, according to the Times rating, for a total of 206. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. |
| In the closing days of the race, seven states representing 89 electoral votes — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin — are now considered tossups. Here is a look at their dynamics and the potential path for each candidate. | In the closing days of the race, seven states representing 89 electoral votes — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin — are now considered tossups. Here is a look at their dynamics and the potential path for each candidate. |
| Florida | Florida |
| Mr. Romney’s swing through Florida on Saturday — the first day of in-person early voting there — included a visit to a Republican county in the Panhandle where he wants to pump up his vote count (Escambia) and where a huge crowd met him with chants of “10 more days,” a Democratic county where he wants to cut into Mr. Obama’s expected lead (Osceola), and a swing county (Pasco). | |
| For good reason. | For good reason. |
| Mr. Romney cannot afford to leave any base untouched. If he loses Florida, his chances of winning the presidency depend on sweeping nine other states, including Ohio and Nevada. | Mr. Romney cannot afford to leave any base untouched. If he loses Florida, his chances of winning the presidency depend on sweeping nine other states, including Ohio and Nevada. |
| Florida has been considered challenging territory for Mr. Obama all year. Even when polls have shown him ahead, both campaigns have expressed skepticism that the edge would hold. | Florida has been considered challenging territory for Mr. Obama all year. Even when polls have shown him ahead, both campaigns have expressed skepticism that the edge would hold. |
| But at Mr. Obama’s headquarters in Chicago, his aides said in interviews last week that they believed they had at least a 50 percent shot in Florida, based on mail-in ballots, voter registrations and polling. A new wave of Puerto Rican voters in Central Florida is highly influential, Democrats say, along with younger Cuban-Americans in South Florida. | But at Mr. Obama’s headquarters in Chicago, his aides said in interviews last week that they believed they had at least a 50 percent shot in Florida, based on mail-in ballots, voter registrations and polling. A new wave of Puerto Rican voters in Central Florida is highly influential, Democrats say, along with younger Cuban-Americans in South Florida. |
| Republicans, still bullish about victory, say Mr. Obama’s aides are overestimating his support among Puerto Ricans. And, they said, Mr. Romney can rely on a very strong showing in Polk County, a Republican stronghold, and push for an edge in the swing county of Hillsborough as well as in Volusia County, home to Daytona. | |
| New Hampshire | New Hampshire |
| On Mr. Obama’s trip on Saturday to Nashua, N.H., with the singer James Taylor in tow, he wooed a state that revels in its reputation for unpredictability. In a stop at a union hall, he said, “We don’t know how this thing is going to play out.” | |
| Mr. Obama won every county there in 2008, a feat that even Bill Clinton did not pull off in 1992 and 1996. But Mr. Obama’s sometimes comfortable lead in polls has dwindled. | Mr. Obama won every county there in 2008, a feat that even Bill Clinton did not pull off in 1992 and 1996. But Mr. Obama’s sometimes comfortable lead in polls has dwindled. |
| Mr. Romney’s aides have been somewhat optimistic about his chances in the state. He was the governor in Massachusetts next door, and he vacations there. His lakeside home in Wolfeboro is in Carroll County, which he will need to win. | Mr. Romney’s aides have been somewhat optimistic about his chances in the state. He was the governor in Massachusetts next door, and he vacations there. His lakeside home in Wolfeboro is in Carroll County, which he will need to win. |
| He and his campaign have plied the state’s two traditionally Republican-leaning counties in southern New Hampshire — Rockingham and Hillsborough — with attention since he announced his run for the presidency (in the Rockingham town of Stratham). His assertions that Mr. Obama has allowed the budget deficit and national debt to get out of control speaks to the state’s long tradition of thrift. | He and his campaign have plied the state’s two traditionally Republican-leaning counties in southern New Hampshire — Rockingham and Hillsborough — with attention since he announced his run for the presidency (in the Rockingham town of Stratham). His assertions that Mr. Obama has allowed the budget deficit and national debt to get out of control speaks to the state’s long tradition of thrift. |
| New Hampshire has only four Electoral College votes. But they would make all the difference if Mr. Romney also wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio and Mr. Obama takes Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin. | New Hampshire has only four Electoral College votes. But they would make all the difference if Mr. Romney also wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio and Mr. Obama takes Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin. |
| The state has extra resonance for Democrats: if Al Gore had won there, he would have been president. | The state has extra resonance for Democrats: if Al Gore had won there, he would have been president. |
| Colorado | Colorado |
| There is a potential outcome that has tantalized political addicts everywhere: that Colorado will become the new Florida, the state that decides it all. | There is a potential outcome that has tantalized political addicts everywhere: that Colorado will become the new Florida, the state that decides it all. |
| For it to come to that, Mr. Romney must win four of the most competitive states — New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida and Wisconsin — leaving Mr. Obama with Ohio and Iowa. That would give Mr. Romney 262 Electoral College votes to Mr. Obama’s 267, leaving both in need of Colorado’s 9. In 2008, Mr. Obama became the first Democrat to win the state in 16 years by stealing the counties north and south of Boulder — Jefferson and Larimer — and Arapahoe County near Denver and by shaving down the Republican margin in conservative areas like Colorado Springs. | For it to come to that, Mr. Romney must win four of the most competitive states — New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida and Wisconsin — leaving Mr. Obama with Ohio and Iowa. That would give Mr. Romney 262 Electoral College votes to Mr. Obama’s 267, leaving both in need of Colorado’s 9. In 2008, Mr. Obama became the first Democrat to win the state in 16 years by stealing the counties north and south of Boulder — Jefferson and Larimer — and Arapahoe County near Denver and by shaving down the Republican margin in conservative areas like Colorado Springs. |
| A Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist College poll released on Thursday showed Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney to be tied among likely voters in the state. | A Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist College poll released on Thursday showed Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney to be tied among likely voters in the state. |
| Democrats are counting on Hispanic and young voters and what they say is a superior organization. “The closer and closer we get to the election, the more the organizing matters,” said Senator Michael Bennet, a Colorado Democrat. | Democrats are counting on Hispanic and young voters and what they say is a superior organization. “The closer and closer we get to the election, the more the organizing matters,” said Senator Michael Bennet, a Colorado Democrat. |
| Mr. Romney is trying to cut into Mr. Obama’s advantage with Hispanics and hoping for support from military and evangelical voters. His political director, Rich Beeson, has an added incentive to secure victory there: It is his home state. | Mr. Romney is trying to cut into Mr. Obama’s advantage with Hispanics and hoping for support from military and evangelical voters. His political director, Rich Beeson, has an added incentive to secure victory there: It is his home state. |
| Iowa | Iowa |
| No state among the battlegrounds is more sentimental and symbolic to Mr. Obama. Iowa christened his presidential candidacy in 2008; his victory in the caucuses there helped pave the way to his winning the Democratic nomination. | No state among the battlegrounds is more sentimental and symbolic to Mr. Obama. Iowa christened his presidential candidacy in 2008; his victory in the caucuses there helped pave the way to his winning the Democratic nomination. |
| Iowa’s unemployment rate is significantly lower than the national average, but Mr. Obama has campaigned in the state as if his candidacy depended upon it. And perhaps it does. | Iowa’s unemployment rate is significantly lower than the national average, but Mr. Obama has campaigned in the state as if his candidacy depended upon it. And perhaps it does. |
| Mr. Romney is looking for backup options if the battleground map does not tilt his way. And the six electoral votes in Iowa could be a critical piece to that puzzle. | Mr. Romney is looking for backup options if the battleground map does not tilt his way. And the six electoral votes in Iowa could be a critical piece to that puzzle. |
| The suburban areas around Des Moines (Polk County) and Davenport (Scott County) are crucial for both candidates. The endorsement of The Des Moines Register, expected to be announced on Saturday evening, could help. | The suburban areas around Des Moines (Polk County) and Davenport (Scott County) are crucial for both candidates. The endorsement of The Des Moines Register, expected to be announced on Saturday evening, could help. |
| Social conservatives are working to deliver a record turnout in northwestern Iowa. Democrats are taking steps to keep outpacing Republicans in early voting, which means Mr. Romney will have to deliver a strong performance on Election Day to win. Four years ago, Mr. Obama received fewer votes on Election Day than Senator John McCain, but still carried the state because of the ones he banked early. | Social conservatives are working to deliver a record turnout in northwestern Iowa. Democrats are taking steps to keep outpacing Republicans in early voting, which means Mr. Romney will have to deliver a strong performance on Election Day to win. Four years ago, Mr. Obama received fewer votes on Election Day than Senator John McCain, but still carried the state because of the ones he banked early. |
| Ohio | Ohio |
| Mr. Romney spent four of the last five days in the state trying to break through with middle-class voters, making the case that the recovery under Mr. Obama has been inadequate. With 18 electoral votes at stake, both candidates are treating the state as if they were running for governor. | Mr. Romney spent four of the last five days in the state trying to break through with middle-class voters, making the case that the recovery under Mr. Obama has been inadequate. With 18 electoral votes at stake, both candidates are treating the state as if they were running for governor. |
| To win, Mr. Romney needs added strength in rural and suburban areas, where Mr. Obama drew more support in 2008 than did previous Democratic candidates. On Sunday night, Mr. Romney will hold a rally at the fairgrounds in Marion, Ohio, a Republican-leaning county, where he needs the margin of victory to return to the levels seen in 2004. | |
| The results in Cincinnati, in Hamilton County, will be among the closest watched in the country. The county supported Mr. Obama in 2008 — the first time a Democrat won in four decades — and is one of the most highly-competitive this year. | The results in Cincinnati, in Hamilton County, will be among the closest watched in the country. The county supported Mr. Obama in 2008 — the first time a Democrat won in four decades — and is one of the most highly-competitive this year. |
| “You want to peak at the right time, and we are peaking at the right time,” said Chris Jennings, the Ohio campaign manager for Mr. Romney. | “You want to peak at the right time, and we are peaking at the right time,” said Chris Jennings, the Ohio campaign manager for Mr. Romney. |
| Before Election Day, officials estimate that at least one-third of registered voters will have already cast their ballots. | Before Election Day, officials estimate that at least one-third of registered voters will have already cast their ballots. |
| Virginia | Virginia |
| Virginia is vital to almost every one of Mr. Romney’s paths to the White House if he does not win Ohio, which explains why he has spent so much time visiting the state, including what were to be three rallies on Sunday before they were canceled because of Hurricane Sandy. | |
| Mr. Obama was the first Democrat to win the state since 1964. The tide he rode among black voters in places like Hampton, on the coast, is likely to roll again. And the northern part of the state, in the Washington area, is still considered Obama country. | Mr. Obama was the first Democrat to win the state since 1964. The tide he rode among black voters in places like Hampton, on the coast, is likely to roll again. And the northern part of the state, in the Washington area, is still considered Obama country. |
| Mr. Romney has focused much of his effort in areas like those around Norfolk, heavily populated with military personnel, where he asserts that Mr. Obama has allowed the Navy to wither, and in coal-mining country in the south, where he portrays Mr. Obama as hostile to the industry and quick to impose costly regulations on business. | Mr. Romney has focused much of his effort in areas like those around Norfolk, heavily populated with military personnel, where he asserts that Mr. Obama has allowed the Navy to wither, and in coal-mining country in the south, where he portrays Mr. Obama as hostile to the industry and quick to impose costly regulations on business. |
| A run of polls in the late summer showed Mr. Obama to be on his way to establishing a real advantage, but in recent weeks the race has fallen into an effective tie. Mr. Romney’s improving standing among undecided women after the debates — which he stoked with an advertisement that sought to soften his stance against abortion — made Mr. Obama’s aides especially nervous. | A run of polls in the late summer showed Mr. Obama to be on his way to establishing a real advantage, but in recent weeks the race has fallen into an effective tie. Mr. Romney’s improving standing among undecided women after the debates — which he stoked with an advertisement that sought to soften his stance against abortion — made Mr. Obama’s aides especially nervous. |
| The president’s campaign has been buoyed by recent indications that those wavering women in the north seem to be returning to his column, especially as Democrats remind them of the anti-abortion measures that state Republicans pursued this year. | The president’s campaign has been buoyed by recent indications that those wavering women in the north seem to be returning to his column, especially as Democrats remind them of the anti-abortion measures that state Republicans pursued this year. |
| Wisconsin | Wisconsin |
| The 2008 presidential election, when Mr. Obama carried the state by 14 percentage points, is a distant memory. The electorate is far more polarized this year, particularly after the contentious recall attempt of Mr. Walker in June, which failed. | The 2008 presidential election, when Mr. Obama carried the state by 14 percentage points, is a distant memory. The electorate is far more polarized this year, particularly after the contentious recall attempt of Mr. Walker in June, which failed. |
| The organization that Mr. Walker put together to fend off the recall effort by labor unions is the muscle behind Mr. Romney’s on-the-ground operation. In an interview last week, he said, “We set the stage for the Romney campaign before the Romney campaign was fully engaged.” | The organization that Mr. Walker put together to fend off the recall effort by labor unions is the muscle behind Mr. Romney’s on-the-ground operation. In an interview last week, he said, “We set the stage for the Romney campaign before the Romney campaign was fully engaged.” |
| Another factor is the pride that comes from a native son, Representative Paul D. Ryan, on the ticket. His hometown, Janesville, is a strong Democratic-leaning city, so any votes he wins from there could help the Republican margins in a race that both sides agree seems more like 2000 and 2004, when George W. Bush lost by only a sliver. | Another factor is the pride that comes from a native son, Representative Paul D. Ryan, on the ticket. His hometown, Janesville, is a strong Democratic-leaning city, so any votes he wins from there could help the Republican margins in a race that both sides agree seems more like 2000 and 2004, when George W. Bush lost by only a sliver. |
| Mr. Romney is set to campaign in the state on Monday, focusing on Milwaukee and the suburbs of Waukesha County that offer the biggest Republican margins in the state. | Mr. Romney is set to campaign in the state on Monday, focusing on Milwaukee and the suburbs of Waukesha County that offer the biggest Republican margins in the state. |
| A day later, Mr. Obama is scheduled to visit Green Bay. In 2008, he turned many counties in the Fox River Valley from red to blue. Consider the results of Brown County: Mr. Bush defeated Senator John Kerry by 10 percentage points, while four years later Mr. Obama defeated Mr. McCain by nearly the same margin. | A day later, Mr. Obama is scheduled to visit Green Bay. In 2008, he turned many counties in the Fox River Valley from red to blue. Consider the results of Brown County: Mr. Bush defeated Senator John Kerry by 10 percentage points, while four years later Mr. Obama defeated Mr. McCain by nearly the same margin. |
| The Romney campaign does not consider Wisconsin one of its best prospects, but a victory would break the Midwestern firewall that Mr. Obama is trying to build. And if Mr. Romney could win the state’s 10 electoral votes — coupled with Colorado’s 9 — it would counterbalance a potential loss in Ohio. | The Romney campaign does not consider Wisconsin one of its best prospects, but a victory would break the Midwestern firewall that Mr. Obama is trying to build. And if Mr. Romney could win the state’s 10 electoral votes — coupled with Colorado’s 9 — it would counterbalance a potential loss in Ohio. |
Jeff Zeleny reported from Westerville, Ohio, and Jim Rutenberg from Chicago. | Jeff Zeleny reported from Westerville, Ohio, and Jim Rutenberg from Chicago. |