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| Storms continue to rage over L'Aquila sentences | Storms continue to rage over L'Aquila sentences |
| (7 days later) | |
| Meteorologists who say that there will not be a hurricane and seismologists who say there is "no danger" of an earthquake when they know those events are unlikely, rather than impossible, leave themselves open to legitimate criticism. That does not mean, as Simon Jenkins asserts, that "science should shut up" (Comment, 26 October). It means that the uncertainty inherent in forecasts should be made explicit. | Meteorologists who say that there will not be a hurricane and seismologists who say there is "no danger" of an earthquake when they know those events are unlikely, rather than impossible, leave themselves open to legitimate criticism. That does not mean, as Simon Jenkins asserts, that "science should shut up" (Comment, 26 October). It means that the uncertainty inherent in forecasts should be made explicit. |
| One way this can be done is by providing forecasts as probabilities: a 5% chance of an earthquake; a 20% chance of a hurricane. This is how most American weather forecasts are issued, and many meteorologists would like a similar practice to be adopted here. | One way this can be done is by providing forecasts as probabilities: a 5% chance of an earthquake; a 20% chance of a hurricane. This is how most American weather forecasts are issued, and many meteorologists would like a similar practice to be adopted here. |
| This is unlikely to happen. Within our media, the prevailing view appears to be that British people cannot understand probabilities. As a result, television weather forecasts are visually presented in a way that precludes inclusion of any information about the uncertainty associated with those forecasts. While this continues, forecasts will remain misleading and forecasters will continue to receive unwarranted blame. Professor Nigel Harvey Division of psychology and language sciences, University College London | This is unlikely to happen. Within our media, the prevailing view appears to be that British people cannot understand probabilities. As a result, television weather forecasts are visually presented in a way that precludes inclusion of any information about the uncertainty associated with those forecasts. While this continues, forecasts will remain misleading and forecasters will continue to receive unwarranted blame. Professor Nigel Harvey Division of psychology and language sciences, University College London |
| • Simon Jenkins' confusion between natural forces and human agency is revealed when he equates a forester who "fails to predict that a tree might fall" with "a cook who poisons a customer". Having wished success to the proposed lawsuit against the Met Office for "persistently pessimistic" forecasts, Jenkins retreats to the only standpoint he has left himself: "If the variables are too great, science should shut up." But who should take responsibility for making that call? On the matters in question, the variables will always be too great for certainty. There are costs and dangers associated with knowledge and ignorance. Is silence likely to be cheaper and safer? Professor Clive Coen School of medicine, King's College London | • Simon Jenkins' confusion between natural forces and human agency is revealed when he equates a forester who "fails to predict that a tree might fall" with "a cook who poisons a customer". Having wished success to the proposed lawsuit against the Met Office for "persistently pessimistic" forecasts, Jenkins retreats to the only standpoint he has left himself: "If the variables are too great, science should shut up." But who should take responsibility for making that call? On the matters in question, the variables will always be too great for certainty. There are costs and dangers associated with knowledge and ignorance. Is silence likely to be cheaper and safer? Professor Clive Coen School of medicine, King's College London |
| • Simon Jenkins misses an essential point about class and mistakes. Mistakes become a moral problem when they are due to negligence. Negligence occurs when someone does something with less than the averagely expectable competence and care. Where standards are clear, negligence is easy to define. Where they are not clear, public expectations may be unrealistic. In any activity where wide variation of circumstance and contributory factors is normal, it is more difficult to say what constitutes normal performance than where circumstances and factors are circumscribed – medicine or economic forecasting as opposed to plumbing or carpentry, for example. The fact that these activities are associated with different social classes is secondary. | • Simon Jenkins misses an essential point about class and mistakes. Mistakes become a moral problem when they are due to negligence. Negligence occurs when someone does something with less than the averagely expectable competence and care. Where standards are clear, negligence is easy to define. Where they are not clear, public expectations may be unrealistic. In any activity where wide variation of circumstance and contributory factors is normal, it is more difficult to say what constitutes normal performance than where circumstances and factors are circumscribed – medicine or economic forecasting as opposed to plumbing or carpentry, for example. The fact that these activities are associated with different social classes is secondary. |
| The advisers at L'Aquila were negligent if they failed to exercise average competence; if they were averagely competent, they weren't negligent, they were averagely fallible humans. The fact that people are easily mystified by science, and that the media appear to love it, is not the fault of scientists. I think it is due to the fact that science has come to replace religion and traditional values as the best source of certainty that we have, however fallible it may be. Jerry Palmer London | The advisers at L'Aquila were negligent if they failed to exercise average competence; if they were averagely competent, they weren't negligent, they were averagely fallible humans. The fact that people are easily mystified by science, and that the media appear to love it, is not the fault of scientists. I think it is due to the fact that science has come to replace religion and traditional values as the best source of certainty that we have, however fallible it may be. Jerry Palmer London |
| • Seismologists go to prison for mistaken predictions. But on the same day, you report that stock market analysts were "disappointed" that Apple's earnings per share did not reach their forecasts (Wall Street not impressed by iPad numbers) and so, despite profits rising by 24%, exceeding the company's own promises, its share price fell. | • Seismologists go to prison for mistaken predictions. But on the same day, you report that stock market analysts were "disappointed" that Apple's earnings per share did not reach their forecasts (Wall Street not impressed by iPad numbers) and so, despite profits rising by 24%, exceeding the company's own promises, its share price fell. |
| Wall Street "analysts" failed to predict the volcanic collapse of global financial markets, for which the whole world is paying an enormous price. But investors still believe – and act upon – their profit predictions. In the roll call of those who escape punishment for failed forecasts, financial experts are at the head of the class. Professor Jack Winkler (retired) London Metropolitan University | Wall Street "analysts" failed to predict the volcanic collapse of global financial markets, for which the whole world is paying an enormous price. But investors still believe – and act upon – their profit predictions. In the roll call of those who escape punishment for failed forecasts, financial experts are at the head of the class. Professor Jack Winkler (retired) London Metropolitan University |
| • What can Italy possibly hope to achieve by sending the seismologists to prison? Is this being done pour encourager les autres? Does no one in the Italian courts recognise the dangers of making overpessimistic predictions, like the 2009 swine flu forecast that Jenkins himself mentions? | • What can Italy possibly hope to achieve by sending the seismologists to prison? Is this being done pour encourager les autres? Does no one in the Italian courts recognise the dangers of making overpessimistic predictions, like the 2009 swine flu forecast that Jenkins himself mentions? |
| Do they also not understand that "there is no evidence of an earthquake being imminent" does not mean there is definite evidence that an earthquake is not imminent? | Do they also not understand that "there is no evidence of an earthquake being imminent" does not mean there is definite evidence that an earthquake is not imminent? |
| Science is a tool for understanding the world and for using that understanding to, among other things, make predictions. Most scientists, when tasked with making forecasts, do so to the best of their ability. They do not ever expect to be accorded "the infallibility of popes". Roger A Fisken Bedale, North Yorkshire | Science is a tool for understanding the world and for using that understanding to, among other things, make predictions. Most scientists, when tasked with making forecasts, do so to the best of their ability. They do not ever expect to be accorded "the infallibility of popes". Roger A Fisken Bedale, North Yorkshire |
| • The judge seems to have given more weight to the justified horror, personal loss and grievance of the victims than to a careful assessment of the roles of scientists and of public authorities, which carry the principal responsibility for decisions made and actions taken. | • The judge seems to have given more weight to the justified horror, personal loss and grievance of the victims than to a careful assessment of the roles of scientists and of public authorities, which carry the principal responsibility for decisions made and actions taken. |
| Rather than focusing on the scientists, it would be more appropriate for the judicial system to look into the way the public authorities have acted and not acted before, during and in the aftermath of the L'Aquila earthquake. That would provide more relief to the victims and the region than sentencing scientists to serve prison terms and pay considerable penalties. Lauritz Holm-Nielsen (president) and Peter Tindemans (secretary general) Euroscience, Strasbourg | Rather than focusing on the scientists, it would be more appropriate for the judicial system to look into the way the public authorities have acted and not acted before, during and in the aftermath of the L'Aquila earthquake. That would provide more relief to the victims and the region than sentencing scientists to serve prison terms and pay considerable penalties. Lauritz Holm-Nielsen (president) and Peter Tindemans (secretary general) Euroscience, Strasbourg |
| • The Italian seismologists are lucky not to be living in Stalinist Russia. Arthur Koestler writes in Darkness at Noon: "A short time ago, our leading agriculturalist, B, was shot with 30 of his collaborators because he maintained the opinion that nitrate artificial manure was superior to potash. No 1 is all for potash, therefore B and the 30 had to be liquidated as saboteurs." Tim Grollman London | • The Italian seismologists are lucky not to be living in Stalinist Russia. Arthur Koestler writes in Darkness at Noon: "A short time ago, our leading agriculturalist, B, was shot with 30 of his collaborators because he maintained the opinion that nitrate artificial manure was superior to potash. No 1 is all for potash, therefore B and the 30 had to be liquidated as saboteurs." Tim Grollman London |
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