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| Wisconsin takes on added urgency in test of candidates' ground campaigns | Wisconsin takes on added urgency in test of candidates' ground campaigns |
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| A college gymnasium in late October; lines of eager voters stretched around the building; bunting and American flags inside the hall; sauna-like conditions under the hot television lights and a political candidate exhorting his most passionate supporters to vote on election day. | A college gymnasium in late October; lines of eager voters stretched around the building; bunting and American flags inside the hall; sauna-like conditions under the hot television lights and a political candidate exhorting his most passionate supporters to vote on election day. |
| This all-too-familiar autumnal scene was in Kenosha, Wisconsin, 11 days before American voters to go to the polls to choose their next president. The candidate was vice-president Joe Biden and it was a rite of passage that happens every four years in swing states across America. Biden's campaign event is the traditional and often most public element of this nation's seemingly unending quadrennial presidential races. | This all-too-familiar autumnal scene was in Kenosha, Wisconsin, 11 days before American voters to go to the polls to choose their next president. The candidate was vice-president Joe Biden and it was a rite of passage that happens every four years in swing states across America. Biden's campaign event is the traditional and often most public element of this nation's seemingly unending quadrennial presidential races. |
| But there is of course another story. It's one that goes on behind the scenes: the nuts and bolts of getting supporters the polls and persuading the small number of undecided voters to pick your candidate. Millions of voters are being pushed to cast their ballots early, the get out the vote (GOTV) operations of both campaigns has taken on a heightened sense of importance. | But there is of course another story. It's one that goes on behind the scenes: the nuts and bolts of getting supporters the polls and persuading the small number of undecided voters to pick your candidate. Millions of voters are being pushed to cast their ballots early, the get out the vote (GOTV) operations of both campaigns has taken on a heightened sense of importance. |
| In few places is that GOTV effort more pressing than Wisconsin – a state where Barack Obama trounced John McCain by 14 points in 2008, but in the previous two elections was won by John Kerry and Al Gore by the narrowest of margins. It's also a state that has been witness to a GOP resurgence, with five major elections in the state since 2010 – most of them won by Republicans. | In few places is that GOTV effort more pressing than Wisconsin – a state where Barack Obama trounced John McCain by 14 points in 2008, but in the previous two elections was won by John Kerry and Al Gore by the narrowest of margins. It's also a state that has been witness to a GOP resurgence, with five major elections in the state since 2010 – most of them won by Republicans. |
| This year the polls have given Obama a narrow but persistent lead, but with a Wisconsin favorite son on the ballot – Paul Ryan – and a popular Republican governor, the Obama campaign is taking no chances. The president will hold an event in Green Bay on Thursday, one of his first campaign stops since hurricane Sandy stalled electioneering. Bill Clinton campaigned here for him on Wednesday, and Biden arrives on Friday. With less than a week until election day, therace for Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes has taken on unexpected urgency. | This year the polls have given Obama a narrow but persistent lead, but with a Wisconsin favorite son on the ballot – Paul Ryan – and a popular Republican governor, the Obama campaign is taking no chances. The president will hold an event in Green Bay on Thursday, one of his first campaign stops since hurricane Sandy stalled electioneering. Bill Clinton campaigned here for him on Wednesday, and Biden arrives on Friday. With less than a week until election day, therace for Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes has taken on unexpected urgency. |
| So the Guardian dropped in on campaign offices and local rallies for both Obama and Mitt Romney in and around the south-eastern part of the state to try and get a sense of what is happening on the ground in Wisconsin and how it might affect the outcome on 6 November. | So the Guardian dropped in on campaign offices and local rallies for both Obama and Mitt Romney in and around the south-eastern part of the state to try and get a sense of what is happening on the ground in Wisconsin and how it might affect the outcome on 6 November. |
| Obama's intimidating ground game | Obama's intimidating ground game |
| The ground game is the great unknown of the 2012 election – in trying to judge it properly one is forced invariably to rely on the confident predictions and massaged data of campaign staffers as well as what is visible, anecdotally, to the naked eye. | The ground game is the great unknown of the 2012 election – in trying to judge it properly one is forced invariably to rely on the confident predictions and massaged data of campaign staffers as well as what is visible, anecdotally, to the naked eye. |
| However, what one can say with some certainty is that if Obama's ground game looks anything like it did in 2008, the president should be in pretty good shape. That year he put together what was arguably the best campaign infrastructure ever built for a presidential race – out-organizing and out-mobilizing his Democratic primary opponent Hilary Clinton and later the hapless John McCain in the general election. | However, what one can say with some certainty is that if Obama's ground game looks anything like it did in 2008, the president should be in pretty good shape. That year he put together what was arguably the best campaign infrastructure ever built for a presidential race – out-organizing and out-mobilizing his Democratic primary opponent Hilary Clinton and later the hapless John McCain in the general election. |
| In an oft-cited campaign post-mortem, Seth Masket, a political scientist at the University of Denver, concluded that Obama's huge number of campaign offices, while not decisive, almost certainly expanded Obama's popular and electoral vote advantage and may have been single-handedly responsible for him winning three states on election day: Florida, North Carolina and Indiana. | In an oft-cited campaign post-mortem, Seth Masket, a political scientist at the University of Denver, concluded that Obama's huge number of campaign offices, while not decisive, almost certainly expanded Obama's popular and electoral vote advantage and may have been single-handedly responsible for him winning three states on election day: Florida, North Carolina and Indiana. |
| For a campaign focused on getting as many infrequent voters to the polls as possible – particularly young people, minorities and occasional voters – such efforts have the potential be as decisive in 2012 as they were in 2008. | For a campaign focused on getting as many infrequent voters to the polls as possible – particularly young people, minorities and occasional voters – such efforts have the potential be as decisive in 2012 as they were in 2008. |
| And from all appearances, while the GOP ground game has certainly improved since 2008, the infrastructure developed by Obama might be even better than it was four years ago – driven not only by years of preparation, but also a data-driven approach that has revolutionized how campaigns identify voters and craft micro-target messaging to get them to the polls. | And from all appearances, while the GOP ground game has certainly improved since 2008, the infrastructure developed by Obama might be even better than it was four years ago – driven not only by years of preparation, but also a data-driven approach that has revolutionized how campaigns identify voters and craft micro-target messaging to get them to the polls. |
| While it is virtually impossible to glean with any certainty the strength of the Obama ground game simply by walking into campaign offices, a few things did stand out in Wisconsin – and they are consistent with what others are reporting around the country. What is most obviously striking is the Obama effort's sheer ubiquity. The campaign is everywhere, with five offices in Milwaukee alone and seven in the surrounding country and suburbs. In all, the Obama campaign has 69 offices across the state. | While it is virtually impossible to glean with any certainty the strength of the Obama ground game simply by walking into campaign offices, a few things did stand out in Wisconsin – and they are consistent with what others are reporting around the country. What is most obviously striking is the Obama effort's sheer ubiquity. The campaign is everywhere, with five offices in Milwaukee alone and seven in the surrounding country and suburbs. In all, the Obama campaign has 69 offices across the state. |
| The Romney campaign, by comparison, lists 24 offices on their website. As was the case in 2008 this advantage is being replicated in swing states across the country. In Ohio, Obama has 131 outposts, compared to 40 from Romney; in Florida the edge is 106 to 47. | The Romney campaign, by comparison, lists 24 offices on their website. As was the case in 2008 this advantage is being replicated in swing states across the country. In Ohio, Obama has 131 outposts, compared to 40 from Romney; in Florida the edge is 106 to 47. |
| Obama's outposts in and around Milwaukee were generally located on prominent street corners with large storefronts and visible signage. While I saw few volunteers during my visits (they were supposedly out canvassing) every office had numerous paid staff. The Romney effort on the other hand appears to depend more heavily on volunteer co-ordinators and local state party operatives. | Obama's outposts in and around Milwaukee were generally located on prominent street corners with large storefronts and visible signage. While I saw few volunteers during my visits (they were supposedly out canvassing) every office had numerous paid staff. The Romney effort on the other hand appears to depend more heavily on volunteer co-ordinators and local state party operatives. |
| Moreover, while the Obama offices are focused on supporting all state candidates, it was a struggle to find the campaign paraphernalia of other Wisconsin Democrats under the onslaught of Obama-themed posters and placards. In one office located in a predominately Hispanic section of the city – with Latinos for Obama signs in the windows – even the bathroom was festooned with inspirational statements from the president. | Moreover, while the Obama offices are focused on supporting all state candidates, it was a struggle to find the campaign paraphernalia of other Wisconsin Democrats under the onslaught of Obama-themed posters and placards. In one office located in a predominately Hispanic section of the city – with Latinos for Obama signs in the windows – even the bathroom was festooned with inspirational statements from the president. |
| There was a remarkable similarity to look and feel of the Obama offices. It was like I had stumbled upon the McDonald's of campaign ground games. For example, the same large white paper scripts for how to talk to voters were pasted to the walls in several of the offices. And in keeping with the Obama campaign's approach of using peer pressure to get out the vote, one of the more revelatory lines in the script was a sentence that read: "We are talking to a lot of people in [community name] and it looks like lots of your neighbors will be voting in this election." | There was a remarkable similarity to look and feel of the Obama offices. It was like I had stumbled upon the McDonald's of campaign ground games. For example, the same large white paper scripts for how to talk to voters were pasted to the walls in several of the offices. And in keeping with the Obama campaign's approach of using peer pressure to get out the vote, one of the more revelatory lines in the script was a sentence that read: "We are talking to a lot of people in [community name] and it looks like lots of your neighbors will be voting in this election." |
| The other great similarity at the Obama offices was the complete fear of staff to actually speak with a reporter. When I told staffers that I was doing a story for the Guardian about the Obama ground game in Wisconsin I was met with often terror-stricken looks and a flat refusal to talk to me even on background. | The other great similarity at the Obama offices was the complete fear of staff to actually speak with a reporter. When I told staffers that I was doing a story for the Guardian about the Obama ground game in Wisconsin I was met with often terror-stricken looks and a flat refusal to talk to me even on background. |
| "I don't want to get fired," said more than one staffer – a tribute, I suppose, to the Obama campaign's discipline. In one office, a staffer, apparently concerned that I was a Republican operative, demanded that I leave. | "I don't want to get fired," said more than one staffer – a tribute, I suppose, to the Obama campaign's discipline. In one office, a staffer, apparently concerned that I was a Republican operative, demanded that I leave. |
| Romney's Wisconsin advantage | Romney's Wisconsin advantage |
| Things were a bit different on the Romney side of things (at the very least volunteers and staffers were far more willing to talk to me). While most observers credit the Romney campaign with a stronger ground effort than that of 2008 loser John McCain you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks it's on a par with Obama's. In fact, Romney doesn't really have a ground game. | Things were a bit different on the Romney side of things (at the very least volunteers and staffers were far more willing to talk to me). While most observers credit the Romney campaign with a stronger ground effort than that of 2008 loser John McCain you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks it's on a par with Obama's. In fact, Romney doesn't really have a ground game. |
| As Molly Ball reported in the Atlantic last week, he's largely outsourced GOTV responsibilities to the Republican national committee and in particular state GOP efforts – a fact that was clearly evident in Wisconsin. | As Molly Ball reported in the Atlantic last week, he's largely outsourced GOTV responsibilities to the Republican national committee and in particular state GOP efforts – a fact that was clearly evident in Wisconsin. |
| Still this might be Romney's biggest asset here. | Still this might be Romney's biggest asset here. |
| The reason lies in the badger state's constant stream of elections since 2010. That year Republicans won big, with Tea Party darling Ron Johnson taking the Senate seat from incumbent Russ Feingold and Scott Walker winning the governor's race. | The reason lies in the badger state's constant stream of elections since 2010. That year Republicans won big, with Tea Party darling Ron Johnson taking the Senate seat from incumbent Russ Feingold and Scott Walker winning the governor's race. |
| Walker quickly unveiled a plan to strip collective bargaining rights from Wisconsin public sector unions, a move that led to large protests at the state capitol in Madison and polarized an electorate that was already very narrowly divided. Walker's union ploy led to a host of recall elections by embittered Democrats including most controversially a recall race in June, which the well-financed Walker won handily. | Walker quickly unveiled a plan to strip collective bargaining rights from Wisconsin public sector unions, a move that led to large protests at the state capitol in Madison and polarized an electorate that was already very narrowly divided. Walker's union ploy led to a host of recall elections by embittered Democrats including most controversially a recall race in June, which the well-financed Walker won handily. |
| These one-after-the-other races left a sizable infrastructure in place as well as a battle-ready base of Republicans. It's an infrastructure that has quickly mobilized in support of Romney. | These one-after-the-other races left a sizable infrastructure in place as well as a battle-ready base of Republicans. It's an infrastructure that has quickly mobilized in support of Romney. |
| According to Ben Sparks, Wisconsin communications director for the Romney-Ryan campaign the cumulative effect of winning the recall and then the selection of local congressman Paul Ryan as Romney's running mate has energized the state's Republican voters. | According to Ben Sparks, Wisconsin communications director for the Romney-Ryan campaign the cumulative effect of winning the recall and then the selection of local congressman Paul Ryan as Romney's running mate has energized the state's Republican voters. |
| "Enthusiasm has been growing since 2010," said Sparks. "Republicans have been bolstered from victory to victory and Democrats are demoralized. That excitement will be key to Romney's winning on election day." | "Enthusiasm has been growing since 2010," said Sparks. "Republicans have been bolstered from victory to victory and Democrats are demoralized. That excitement will be key to Romney's winning on election day." |
| That enthusiasm was evident among local Republicans; and as was the sense of doom and gloom over the possibility of an Obama re-election. When I spoke with Obama supporters they talked about their desire to back the president and as one put it, "keep things going" with Obama. Women voters in particular stressed the president's views on reproductive health and pay equity – a key feature of his campaign's closing message. | That enthusiasm was evident among local Republicans; and as was the sense of doom and gloom over the possibility of an Obama re-election. When I spoke with Obama supporters they talked about their desire to back the president and as one put it, "keep things going" with Obama. Women voters in particular stressed the president's views on reproductive health and pay equity – a key feature of his campaign's closing message. |
| For Republicans, however, they were far more likely to see this campaign in existential terms. As Senator Johnson said in an appearance in a campaign office in a leafy suburb along the north shore of Milwaukee: "This election is about saving America." A volunteer in the campaign's Waukesha office named Keith Best said an Obama win would be a "tipping point" moving the country toward "socialism and the end of the free market" in America. | For Republicans, however, they were far more likely to see this campaign in existential terms. As Senator Johnson said in an appearance in a campaign office in a leafy suburb along the north shore of Milwaukee: "This election is about saving America." A volunteer in the campaign's Waukesha office named Keith Best said an Obama win would be a "tipping point" moving the country toward "socialism and the end of the free market" in America. |
| Still, while Romney supporters were clearly highly motivated, it appeared – at least anecdotally – that their campaign infrastructure couldn't quite measure up to that of Obama's. | Still, while Romney supporters were clearly highly motivated, it appeared – at least anecdotally – that their campaign infrastructure couldn't quite measure up to that of Obama's. |
| Take the Waukesha office for example. This is prime GOP territory: an area that is overwhelmingly Republican. In the Walker recall, the incumbent won nearly 73% in the vote. In 2008, it was John McCain's second best performing county in the state giving him 62% of the vote. Yet the office I visited was, as far as I could tell, the only one in the county. In neighboring Washington and Ozaukee counties, which make the so-called W-O-W swath of suburban communities around Milwaukee County, there was a mere handful of offices as well. | Take the Waukesha office for example. This is prime GOP territory: an area that is overwhelmingly Republican. In the Walker recall, the incumbent won nearly 73% in the vote. In 2008, it was John McCain's second best performing county in the state giving him 62% of the vote. Yet the office I visited was, as far as I could tell, the only one in the county. In neighboring Washington and Ozaukee counties, which make the so-called W-O-W swath of suburban communities around Milwaukee County, there was a mere handful of offices as well. |
| In addition, while there were some volunteers manning the phones and others preparing to knock on doors, most of the foot traffic into the offices were people looking for yard signs or tickets to an upcoming Romney appearance in the state (it would have been Romney's first trip to the state since August, but its since been cancelled). | In addition, while there were some volunteers manning the phones and others preparing to knock on doors, most of the foot traffic into the offices were people looking for yard signs or tickets to an upcoming Romney appearance in the state (it would have been Romney's first trip to the state since August, but its since been cancelled). |
| Few of the volunteers had much to say about pushing their people to vote early. This Republican campaign here had the feel of a traditional GOTV operation with traditional campaign techniques. While that might have worked in the recall election, clearly the GOP was up against a much more formidable opponent in President Obama who brings to the table a far more sophisticated set of GOTV techniques. | Few of the volunteers had much to say about pushing their people to vote early. This Republican campaign here had the feel of a traditional GOTV operation with traditional campaign techniques. While that might have worked in the recall election, clearly the GOP was up against a much more formidable opponent in President Obama who brings to the table a far more sophisticated set of GOTV techniques. |
| One Republican operative I spoke with said that the 2004 Bush campaign here featured probably as good a ground game as the GOP has ever run in Wisconsin – and he still lost by 11,000 votes. So while Romney will have a solid ground game behind him it doesn't mean that will be enough to overcome Obama's advantage or the state's Democratic lean in presidential elections. | One Republican operative I spoke with said that the 2004 Bush campaign here featured probably as good a ground game as the GOP has ever run in Wisconsin – and he still lost by 11,000 votes. So while Romney will have a solid ground game behind him it doesn't mean that will be enough to overcome Obama's advantage or the state's Democratic lean in presidential elections. |
| The recall mirage | The recall mirage |
| Nonetheless, Republicans point to the energy generated around the recall election as a sign that this race will be different – but it's a tough argument to sustain. | Nonetheless, Republicans point to the energy generated around the recall election as a sign that this race will be different – but it's a tough argument to sustain. |
| Exit polls from the June election indicated that nearly one in five Walker supporters intended to vote for President Obama and that he led in head-to-head match-up against Romney by seven points. | Exit polls from the June election indicated that nearly one in five Walker supporters intended to vote for President Obama and that he led in head-to-head match-up against Romney by seven points. |
| While some critics have pointed to inconsistencies in these results, Craig Gilbert, who covers state politics for the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, cautioned against reading too much into the Walker victory in June. | While some critics have pointed to inconsistencies in these results, Craig Gilbert, who covers state politics for the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, cautioned against reading too much into the Walker victory in June. |
| "Wisconsin," he said, "has been on a knife's edge for a long time even though there have been pretty massive swings from surging to Obama in 2008 to then swinging hard for Walker in 2010. I'd be pretty cautious about seeing a shift – or too much of a shift because of Walker victory. More likely what we're seeing it a return to Wisconsin being the sort of swing state it was in the past with a slight advantage for Obama." | "Wisconsin," he said, "has been on a knife's edge for a long time even though there have been pretty massive swings from surging to Obama in 2008 to then swinging hard for Walker in 2010. I'd be pretty cautious about seeing a shift – or too much of a shift because of Walker victory. More likely what we're seeing it a return to Wisconsin being the sort of swing state it was in the past with a slight advantage for Obama." |
| Indeed, beyond the Walker-Obama supporters, nearly 500,000 Wisconsinites who voted in 2008 sat out the recall. Both sides assume many of those non-voters lean toward Obama, in particular the many liberal-leaning college students who didn't vote in the Walker recall. | Indeed, beyond the Walker-Obama supporters, nearly 500,000 Wisconsinites who voted in 2008 sat out the recall. Both sides assume many of those non-voters lean toward Obama, in particular the many liberal-leaning college students who didn't vote in the Walker recall. |
| While it will be crucial for Obama to get these voters to the polls he, like Romney, will also have to do some persuasion as well. At one point, Democrats could often rely on strong turnout from their strongholds around Milwaukee and Madison to win statewide, but Wisconsin as a swing state produces one sizable wrinkle – it's got a lot of swingy voters. | While it will be crucial for Obama to get these voters to the polls he, like Romney, will also have to do some persuasion as well. At one point, Democrats could often rely on strong turnout from their strongholds around Milwaukee and Madison to win statewide, but Wisconsin as a swing state produces one sizable wrinkle – it's got a lot of swingy voters. |
| Aside from the Obama-Walker voters, Wisconsin has, according to Nate Cohn, who writes for the New Republic, one of the largest percentages of Bush-Obama voters in the country. This is particularly true around the Green Bay area, which is in north-eastern Wisconsin. In fact, voters who strongly supported George W Bush in 2004 (John Kerry won one country in north-east Wisconsin that year) went overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008. Not coincidentally, it is where the president will be traveling on Tuesday for a last opportunity to persuade the area's still persuadable voters. | Aside from the Obama-Walker voters, Wisconsin has, according to Nate Cohn, who writes for the New Republic, one of the largest percentages of Bush-Obama voters in the country. This is particularly true around the Green Bay area, which is in north-eastern Wisconsin. In fact, voters who strongly supported George W Bush in 2004 (John Kerry won one country in north-east Wisconsin that year) went overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008. Not coincidentally, it is where the president will be traveling on Tuesday for a last opportunity to persuade the area's still persuadable voters. |
| What will make things a bit easier for Obama is that Wisconsin's economy is not performing as badly as the rest of the country and unemployment is below the national average. Moreover, after Walker and his allies spend the first six months of the year telling voters how great things are in the state it's likely provided an unintentional boon to the Obama effort. And those scripts I mentioned earlier that were in each of the Obama offices – they brag about the 31 consecutive months of job growth, 5.2m private sector jobs and bemoan the economic calamity that Obama inherited upon taking office. | What will make things a bit easier for Obama is that Wisconsin's economy is not performing as badly as the rest of the country and unemployment is below the national average. Moreover, after Walker and his allies spend the first six months of the year telling voters how great things are in the state it's likely provided an unintentional boon to the Obama effort. And those scripts I mentioned earlier that were in each of the Obama offices – they brag about the 31 consecutive months of job growth, 5.2m private sector jobs and bemoan the economic calamity that Obama inherited upon taking office. |
| According to one Democrat familiar with focus group research conducted in the wake of the recall election one of the advantages that Walker enjoyed in the recall was that voters were frustrated with Democrats for so stridently opposing Walker's agenda. Many Wisconsin voters feel the same about opposition to Obama and believe that even though they aren't wowed by his performance he deserves a chance to see his agenda through. | According to one Democrat familiar with focus group research conducted in the wake of the recall election one of the advantages that Walker enjoyed in the recall was that voters were frustrated with Democrats for so stridently opposing Walker's agenda. Many Wisconsin voters feel the same about opposition to Obama and believe that even though they aren't wowed by his performance he deserves a chance to see his agenda through. |
| In the end, that might be the deciding factor for Obama in the state. While there is disappointment with the president, anti-Obama attitudes are not quite as strong as they need to be for Romney to win. The most recent Marist poll in Wisconsin showed 45% of voters think the country is headed in the right direction versus 51% who do not – a nine-point swing from Marist's previous poll in September. | In the end, that might be the deciding factor for Obama in the state. While there is disappointment with the president, anti-Obama attitudes are not quite as strong as they need to be for Romney to win. The most recent Marist poll in Wisconsin showed 45% of voters think the country is headed in the right direction versus 51% who do not – a nine-point swing from Marist's previous poll in September. |
| At the same time, Obama approval ratings outweigh his negatives and Obama's polling averages consistently are in the 49-51% range. In fact, Romney hasn't led here since two polls taken in mid-August. A new poll out on Wednesday from Marquette Law School shows Obama leading by eight in the state, a seven-point increase from the school's previous poll. While this latest number is likely a bit high it is reflective of other polling that shows Obama leading in the state. | At the same time, Obama approval ratings outweigh his negatives and Obama's polling averages consistently are in the 49-51% range. In fact, Romney hasn't led here since two polls taken in mid-August. A new poll out on Wednesday from Marquette Law School shows Obama leading by eight in the state, a seven-point increase from the school's previous poll. While this latest number is likely a bit high it is reflective of other polling that shows Obama leading in the state. |
| When you combine a historical Democratic lean in presidential election, a steadily improving economy and an Obama ground game that is more than matching the GOP's enthusiasm from the Walker recall it's increasingly hard to imagine that Wisconsin will be turning red next Tuesday. | When you combine a historical Democratic lean in presidential election, a steadily improving economy and an Obama ground game that is more than matching the GOP's enthusiasm from the Walker recall it's increasingly hard to imagine that Wisconsin will be turning red next Tuesday. |
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