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| Election day weather not likely to affect voting – except in all-important Florida | Election day weather not likely to affect voting – except in all-important Florida |
| (5 months later) | |
| It was raining in some parts of the sunshine state as voters went to the polls this morning. And there are far more significant weather-related problems on election day in the states of New York and New Jersey. What effect does weather have on turnout? | It was raining in some parts of the sunshine state as voters went to the polls this morning. And there are far more significant weather-related problems on election day in the states of New York and New Jersey. What effect does weather have on turnout? |
| Bad weather actually does drive down voter participation. For every inch above normal rainfall, overall turnout drops by a little less than 1%, but Democratic turnout drops by 2.5%. Every inch above average snowfall decreases turnout by 0.5%. Since the water equivalent of 10 inches of snow usually equals an inch of rain, it's more likely snow will effect an election. | Bad weather actually does drive down voter participation. For every inch above normal rainfall, overall turnout drops by a little less than 1%, but Democratic turnout drops by 2.5%. Every inch above average snowfall decreases turnout by 0.5%. Since the water equivalent of 10 inches of snow usually equals an inch of rain, it's more likely snow will effect an election. |
| Still, the weather would have to be quite bad and the election quite close for there to be much of an interaction between an election outcome and weather. | Still, the weather would have to be quite bad and the election quite close for there to be much of an interaction between an election outcome and weather. |
| Will the weather be bad enough anywhere for weather to make that big of an impact? Mostly, it won't considering many people have already voted and the weather will be pretty good for most. | Will the weather be bad enough anywhere for weather to make that big of an impact? Mostly, it won't considering many people have already voted and the weather will be pretty good for most. |
| In six of the 10 swing states discussed here, including Ohio, the weather will be clear. | In six of the 10 swing states discussed here, including Ohio, the weather will be clear. |
| In Iowa and North Carolina, there will be showers in certain parts of the state. Most of that rain will be very light. Given the polling position of the candidates, the rain will likely not have an impact. | In Iowa and North Carolina, there will be showers in certain parts of the state. Most of that rain will be very light. Given the polling position of the candidates, the rain will likely not have an impact. |
| Wisconsin could have some rain in major Democratic areas and snow in the swing area around Green Bay. If the race were tighter in the badger state, I'd wonder more about whether the weather could flip the race. | Wisconsin could have some rain in major Democratic areas and snow in the swing area around Green Bay. If the race were tighter in the badger state, I'd wonder more about whether the weather could flip the race. |
| Florida is the one state where rain could change have more an impact. There will be showers in the northern half of the state including the key I-4 corridor. Even so, the race would have to be about a point to a point and a half tighter than polling average for the weather to have an effect. | Florida is the one state where rain could change have more an impact. There will be showers in the northern half of the state including the key I-4 corridor. Even so, the race would have to be about a point to a point and a half tighter than polling average for the weather to have an effect. |
| You can take a more in-depth look below at the forecast for different parts of 10 swing states from north to south and east to west. | You can take a more in-depth look below at the forecast for different parts of 10 swing states from north to south and east to west. |
| New Hampshire | New Hampshire |
| Real Clear Politics average: Obama +2 Forecast for Manchester, NH (center): High in the low to mid 40s and sunny | Real Clear Politics average: Obama +2 Forecast for Manchester, NH (center): High in the low to mid 40s and sunny |
| Conclusion: Weather will not decrease turnout. | Conclusion: Weather will not decrease turnout. |
| Pennsylvania | Pennsylvania |
| Real Clear Politics average: Obama +3.8 Forecast for Philadelphia (southeast): High near 50 and sunny Forecast for Pittsburgh (southwest): High in the upper 40s and sunny Forecast for State College (center): High in the mid 40s and sunny Conclusion: Weather will not decrease turnout. | Real Clear Politics average: Obama +3.8 Forecast for Philadelphia (southeast): High near 50 and sunny Forecast for Pittsburgh (southwest): High in the upper 40s and sunny Forecast for State College (center): High in the mid 40s and sunny Conclusion: Weather will not decrease turnout. |
| Virginia | Virginia |
| Real Clear Politics average: Obama +0.3 Forecast for Arlington (north): High near 50 and sunny Forecast for Richmond (southeast): High in the lower 50s and a mix of clouds and sun Forecast for Roanoke (southwest): High near 50 and a mix of clouds and sun | Real Clear Politics average: Obama +0.3 Forecast for Arlington (north): High near 50 and sunny Forecast for Richmond (southeast): High in the lower 50s and a mix of clouds and sun Forecast for Roanoke (southwest): High near 50 and a mix of clouds and sun |
| Conclusion: Weather will not decrease turnout. | Conclusion: Weather will not decrease turnout. |
| North Carolina | North Carolina |
| Real Clear Politics average: Romney +3.0 Forecast for Charlotte (southwest): High near 50 and a slight chance of early showers Forecast for Greenville (east): High in the lower 50s and a chance of showers Forecast for Raleigh (central-east): High in the lower 50s and a slight chance of showers | Real Clear Politics average: Romney +3.0 Forecast for Charlotte (southwest): High near 50 and a slight chance of early showers Forecast for Greenville (east): High in the lower 50s and a chance of showers Forecast for Raleigh (central-east): High in the lower 50s and a slight chance of showers |
| Conclusion: Any rain will be light and Romney will likely win by a wide enough margin for it not to change the course of the state's electoral outcome. | Conclusion: Any rain will be light and Romney will likely win by a wide enough margin for it not to change the course of the state's electoral outcome. |
| Florida | Florida |
| Real Clear Politics average: Romney +1.5 Forecast for Jacksonville (northeast): High in the upper 60s and showers Forecast for Miami (southeast): High near 80 and a mix of clouds and Ssun Forecast for Orlando (central-east): High in the upper 70s and showers Forecast for Tallahassee (panhandle): High in the mid 60s and a chance of showers Forecast for Tampa (central-west): High in the mid 70s and showers | Real Clear Politics average: Romney +1.5 Forecast for Jacksonville (northeast): High in the upper 60s and showers Forecast for Miami (southeast): High near 80 and a mix of clouds and Ssun Forecast for Orlando (central-east): High in the upper 70s and showers Forecast for Tallahassee (panhandle): High in the mid 60s and a chance of showers Forecast for Tampa (central-west): High in the mid 70s and showers |
| Conclusion: It's a tight race and it could be raining in Republican north and swing areas of the I-4 corridor from Orlando to Tampa. Chances are, however, the rain won't be too heavy. Unless the race is decided by less than 0.5 points, weather won't impact the final result. | Conclusion: It's a tight race and it could be raining in Republican north and swing areas of the I-4 corridor from Orlando to Tampa. Chances are, however, the rain won't be too heavy. Unless the race is decided by less than 0.5 points, weather won't impact the final result. |
| Ohio | Ohio |
| Real Clear Politics average: Obama +2.9 Forecast for Athens (southeast): High near 50 and sunny Forecast for Cincinnati (southwest): High in the lower 50s and sunny Forecast for Cleveland (northeast): High in the mid 50s with a mix of sun and clouds Forecast for Columbus (central): High near 50 and sunny Forecast for Toledo (northwest): High in the upper 40s and sunny | Real Clear Politics average: Obama +2.9 Forecast for Athens (southeast): High near 50 and sunny Forecast for Cincinnati (southwest): High in the lower 50s and sunny Forecast for Cleveland (northeast): High in the mid 50s with a mix of sun and clouds Forecast for Columbus (central): High near 50 and sunny Forecast for Toledo (northwest): High in the upper 40s and sunny |
| Conclusion: Weather will not decrease turnout. | Conclusion: Weather will not decrease turnout. |
| Wisconsin | Wisconsin |
| Real Clear Politics average: Obama +4.2 Forecast for Green Bay (northeast): High in the lower 40s with a mix of snow and rain in the afternoon Forecast for Hayward (northwest): High in the lower 40s with early showers Forecast for La Crosse (central-west): High in the upper 40s with early showers Forecast for Madison (central): High in the mid 40s with a rain/snow mixture becoming all rain showers Forecast for Milwaukee (southeast): High in the mid 40s with showers | Real Clear Politics average: Obama +4.2 Forecast for Green Bay (northeast): High in the lower 40s with a mix of snow and rain in the afternoon Forecast for Hayward (northwest): High in the lower 40s with early showers Forecast for La Crosse (central-west): High in the upper 40s with early showers Forecast for Madison (central): High in the mid 40s with a rain/snow mixture becoming all rain showers Forecast for Milwaukee (southeast): High in the mid 40s with showers |
| Conclusion: The weather won't exactly be glorious in the Democratic strongholds of Madison and Milwaukee. Still, any precipitation looks to be well less than an inch. Given Obama's lead in the polls, weather should not sway this contest. | Conclusion: The weather won't exactly be glorious in the Democratic strongholds of Madison and Milwaukee. Still, any precipitation looks to be well less than an inch. Given Obama's lead in the polls, weather should not sway this contest. |
| Iowa | Iowa |
| Real Clear Politics average: Obama +2.4 Forecast for Davenport (east): High in the upper 50s and showers Forecast for Des Moines (central): High in the lower 50s and sunny Forecast for Sioux City (northwest): High the mid 50s and sunny | Real Clear Politics average: Obama +2.4 Forecast for Davenport (east): High in the upper 50s and showers Forecast for Des Moines (central): High in the lower 50s and sunny Forecast for Sioux City (northwest): High the mid 50s and sunny |
| Conclusion: The weather in the east will be slightly wet, but it will far less than an inch. Most of the state will be dry. Unless the result is within a few thousand votes, rain won't have changed the winner. | Conclusion: The weather in the east will be slightly wet, but it will far less than an inch. Most of the state will be dry. Unless the result is within a few thousand votes, rain won't have changed the winner. |
| Colorado | Colorado |
| Real Clear Politics average: Obama +1.5 Forecast for Denver (central-north): High near 70 and sunny Forecast for Grand Junction (west): High in the mid 60s and sunny Forecast for Pueblo (southeast): High in the mid 70s and sunny | Real Clear Politics average: Obama +1.5 Forecast for Denver (central-north): High near 70 and sunny Forecast for Grand Junction (west): High in the mid 60s and sunny Forecast for Pueblo (southeast): High in the mid 70s and sunny |
| Conclusion: Weather will not decrease turnout. | Conclusion: Weather will not decrease turnout. |
| Nevada | Nevada |
| Real Clear Politics average: Obama +2.8 Forecast for Elko (northeast): High in the lower 70s and sunny Forecast for Las Vegas (south): High in the mid 80s and sunny Forecast for Reno (northwest): High in the mid 70s and sunny | Real Clear Politics average: Obama +2.8 Forecast for Elko (northeast): High in the lower 70s and sunny Forecast for Las Vegas (south): High in the mid 80s and sunny Forecast for Reno (northwest): High in the mid 70s and sunny |
| Conclusion: Weather will not decrease turnout. | Conclusion: Weather will not decrease turnout. |
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