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Moves to form Syrian opposition look set to end in failure Moves to form Syrian opposition look set to end in failure
(about 1 month later)
Moves to form a credible alternative to Syria's Assad regime look set to end in failure, with the main opposition bloc refusing to endorse a broad-based government in waiting or contribute to how it might take shape.Moves to form a credible alternative to Syria's Assad regime look set to end in failure, with the main opposition bloc refusing to endorse a broad-based government in waiting or contribute to how it might take shape.
The Syrian National Council, supported by opponents of Assad earlier in the uprising and more recently derided, continued to stall over a response to the formation of an umbrella group that aims to forge stronger alliances with groups inside Syria.The Syrian National Council, supported by opponents of Assad earlier in the uprising and more recently derided, continued to stall over a response to the formation of an umbrella group that aims to forge stronger alliances with groups inside Syria.
At risk of being sidelined by its former key backers, the SNC had used a week-long summit in the Qatari capital, Doha, to fight a rearguard action, which shored up its position in any new group and conveyed an image that it was reinventing itself. The SNC nominated a new leader, an exiled member of Syria's Christian minority, George Sabra, who called for the international community to resume funding the organisation and not link support to an opposition revamp.At risk of being sidelined by its former key backers, the SNC had used a week-long summit in the Qatari capital, Doha, to fight a rearguard action, which shored up its position in any new group and conveyed an image that it was reinventing itself. The SNC nominated a new leader, an exiled member of Syria's Christian minority, George Sabra, who called for the international community to resume funding the organisation and not link support to an opposition revamp.
"Unfortunately we get nothing from them, except some statements, some encouragement", while Assad's allies "give the regime everything," Sabra told the Associated Press."Unfortunately we get nothing from them, except some statements, some encouragement", while Assad's allies "give the regime everything," Sabra told the Associated Press.
Sabra was named as the group's new head after the type of power struggle that has characterised the SNC's performance as a once relatively peaceful uprising became an entrenched civil war.Sabra was named as the group's new head after the type of power struggle that has characterised the SNC's performance as a once relatively peaceful uprising became an entrenched civil war.
With the crisis in Syria worsening over the past 15 months, the SNC has declined in relevance and standing. It is viewed with contempt by Syria's armed factions and by large numbers of the growing refugee community.With the crisis in Syria worsening over the past 15 months, the SNC has declined in relevance and standing. It is viewed with contempt by Syria's armed factions and by large numbers of the growing refugee community.
A consensus within both groups is that the SNC has squandered numerous chances to convince those Syrians not wedded to the Assad regime that they have a viable alternative.A consensus within both groups is that the SNC has squandered numerous chances to convince those Syrians not wedded to the Assad regime that they have a viable alternative.
The Doha meeting was supposed to mark a new chapter for Syria's political opposition. Organisers, particularly Qatar and the US, had hoped for the formation of a body that could build bridges to groups inside Syria and channel aid money to them.The Doha meeting was supposed to mark a new chapter for Syria's political opposition. Organisers, particularly Qatar and the US, had hoped for the formation of a body that could build bridges to groups inside Syria and channel aid money to them.
The US and senior Arab League officials had signalled they would recognise any new body that could bring together disparate factions. It had suggested that aid money would again start to flow.The US and senior Arab League officials had signalled they would recognise any new body that could bring together disparate factions. It had suggested that aid money would again start to flow.
Apparently reluctant to yield the power it has held over such channels, the SNC announced a new leadership lineup. Reaction to it was underwhelming. The 41-member executive committee contains no women and, apart from Sabra as leader, has not diversified to include any minorities.Apparently reluctant to yield the power it has held over such channels, the SNC announced a new leadership lineup. Reaction to it was underwhelming. The 41-member executive committee contains no women and, apart from Sabra as leader, has not diversified to include any minorities.
Syria's minority groups, Alawites, Christians, Kurds and Druze among them, have been reluctant to support the opposition uprising, with many among them accepting Assad's argument that only his regime can act as guarantor of their safety. The armed opposition is largely led by Syria's Sunni Muslim majority, which accounts for around 70% of the country's population.Syria's minority groups, Alawites, Christians, Kurds and Druze among them, have been reluctant to support the opposition uprising, with many among them accepting Assad's argument that only his regime can act as guarantor of their safety. The armed opposition is largely led by Syria's Sunni Muslim majority, which accounts for around 70% of the country's population.
Rebel groups inside Syria are engaged in a bitter contest to win patrons abroad. Ammunition is running low among established Islamist fighting units on Aleppo's frontlines.Rebel groups inside Syria are engaged in a bitter contest to win patrons abroad. Ammunition is running low among established Islamist fighting units on Aleppo's frontlines.
Jihadist organisations, however, such as Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Mujaharin – both al-Qaida linked – are not facing the same shortages. As a result, both groups are taking increasingly prominent roles in attacks against government forces.Jihadist organisations, however, such as Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Mujaharin – both al-Qaida linked – are not facing the same shortages. As a result, both groups are taking increasingly prominent roles in attacks against government forces.
A failure to pull together a viable and inclusive opposition would seriously undermine rebel groups' efforts to secure weapons and money. Groups on Aleppo's frontlines told the Observer they had enough ammunition to hold their positions, but not enough to advance.A failure to pull together a viable and inclusive opposition would seriously undermine rebel groups' efforts to secure weapons and money. Groups on Aleppo's frontlines told the Observer they had enough ammunition to hold their positions, but not enough to advance.
"And there's a price to pay for that," one rebel commander, Abu Furat, said. "They will want their share of (the spoils)."And there's a price to pay for that," one rebel commander, Abu Furat, said. "They will want their share of (the spoils).
Aleppo remains in stalemate, with the frontline that splits the city from north to south not having meaningfully shifted since the late summer.Aleppo remains in stalemate, with the frontline that splits the city from north to south not having meaningfully shifted since the late summer.
Meanwhile, in Damascus, a large explosion on Saturday morning is believed to have killed up to 20 of the regime's troops.Meanwhile, in Damascus, a large explosion on Saturday morning is believed to have killed up to 20 of the regime's troops.
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