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Japan economy shrinks, stoking recession fears Japan economy shrinks, stoking recession fears
(35 minutes later)
Japan's economy shrank in the September quarter for the first time since last year, adding to signs that slowing global growth and tensions with China are nudging the world's third-largest economy into recession.Japan's economy shrank in the September quarter for the first time since last year, adding to signs that slowing global growth and tensions with China are nudging the world's third-largest economy into recession.
The 0.9% fall in GDP was in line with expectations, although a decline in capital expenditure was much steeper than forecast. Sony and Panasonic have slashed spending plans to cope with massive losses as they struggle with competitive markets and a strong yen.The 0.9% fall in GDP was in line with expectations, although a decline in capital expenditure was much steeper than forecast. Sony and Panasonic have slashed spending plans to cope with massive losses as they struggle with competitive markets and a strong yen.
The fall in GDP translated into an annualised rate of decline of 3.5%, government data showed on Monday. While US growth showed a modest pick-up in the third quarter, Japan and the eurozone economies are shrinking.The fall in GDP translated into an annualised rate of decline of 3.5%, government data showed on Monday. While US growth showed a modest pick-up in the third quarter, Japan and the eurozone economies are shrinking.
"The GDP data confirms that the economy has fallen into a recession," said Tatsushi Shikano, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo. "It is set for a second straight quarter of contraction in the current quarter.""The GDP data confirms that the economy has fallen into a recession," said Tatsushi Shikano, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo. "It is set for a second straight quarter of contraction in the current quarter."
A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.
The data kept government pressure on the Bank of Japan to boost monetary stimulus even after it eased policy in October for the second straight month as a strong yen and a territorial row with China exacerbate weak demand for exports.The data kept government pressure on the Bank of Japan to boost monetary stimulus even after it eased policy in October for the second straight month as a strong yen and a territorial row with China exacerbate weak demand for exports.
Economy minister Seiji Maehara said the central bank should pursue powerful policy easing to boost the economy, although BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa shot back that the government should do its bit too. Japan's economy minister, Seiji Maehara, said the central bank should pursue powerful policy easing to boost the economy, although the BOJ governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, shot back that the government should do its bit too.
Many analysts expect the BOJ to leave policy unchanged at a review next week, but some see it boosting stimulus again at a 19-20 December meeting, shortly after the US Federal Reserve is due to meet. Many analysts expect the BOJ to leave policy unchanged at a review next week, but some believe it will bost stimulus again at a meeting on 19-20 December, shortly after the US Federal Reserve is due to meet.
External demand accounted for 0.7 percentage points of July-September GDP contraction, matching the median projection. Japan's exports fell 5.0% in July-September, the biggest slide since a 6.0% decline in April-June last year, the data showed.External demand accounted for 0.7 percentage points of July-September GDP contraction, matching the median projection. Japan's exports fell 5.0% in July-September, the biggest slide since a 6.0% decline in April-June last year, the data showed.
A row with China over sovereignty of some islands in the East China Sea sparked violent protests in China and the boycott of Japanese goods, which added to the slide in exports, particularly for automakers such as Nissan. A row with China over sovereignty of islands in the East China Sea sparked violent protests in China and the boycott of Japanese goods, which added to the slide in exports, particularly for carmakers such as Nissan.
Private consumption - which accounts for roughly 60% of the economy - fell 0.5% in the third quarter against a median forecast of a 0.6% drop. Private consumption – which accounts for roughly 60% of the economy – fell 0.5% in the third quarter against a median forecast of a 0.6% drop.
Capital expenditure tumbled 3.2%, the fastest pace of decline since a 5.5% drop in April-June 2009, as companies turned more pessimistic about earnings from domestic and overseas markets.Capital expenditure tumbled 3.2%, the fastest pace of decline since a 5.5% drop in April-June 2009, as companies turned more pessimistic about earnings from domestic and overseas markets.
In Japan's ailing electronics sector, Sony plans to reduce capital spending by 29% in the year to March 2013 and Panasonic plans a 27% cut, after incurring huge losses in their TV manufacturing businesses.In Japan's ailing electronics sector, Sony plans to reduce capital spending by 29% in the year to March 2013 and Panasonic plans a 27% cut, after incurring huge losses in their TV manufacturing businesses.
The companies are struggling to compete with more nimble rivals, such as South Korea's Samsung Electronics and America's Apple Inc, and with a steady rise in the yen, which makes exports from Japan more expensive. The companies are struggling to compete with more nimble rivals, such as South Korea's Samsung Electronics and America's Apple, and with a steady rise in the yen, which makes exports from Japan more expensive.
Analysts said Japanese companies face too many uncertainties to plan future spending with confidence and that is unlikely to change in the current quarter. Analysts said Japanese companies faced too many uncertainties to plan future spending with confidence and that was unlikely to change in the current quarter.
Resolving the protracted euro zone debt crisis is no nearer, U.S. tax increases and government spending cuts in early 2013 could tip America into recession unless Congress acts, and adding domestic uncertainty Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has promised to call a national election "soon" to break a political deadlock. Resolving the protracted euro zone debt crisis is no nearer, US tax increases and government spending cuts in early 2013 could tip America into recession unless Congress acts, and adding domestic uncertainty Japan's The prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, has promised to call a national election soon to break a political deadlock.
Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Securities, said business investment would fall again in the fourth quarter as the global economy recovers only gradually.Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Securities, said business investment would fall again in the fourth quarter as the global economy recovers only gradually.
"If some of these uncertainties are removed, it is possible for things to improve," Adachi said."If some of these uncertainties are removed, it is possible for things to improve," Adachi said.
He forecast capital expenditure will fall 0.5% in October-December and then rise 0.7% in January-March.He forecast capital expenditure will fall 0.5% in October-December and then rise 0.7% in January-March.
Japan's economy outperformed most of its Group of Seven peers in the first half of this year on robust private consumption and spending for reconstruction following last year's earthquake.Japan's economy outperformed most of its Group of Seven peers in the first half of this year on robust private consumption and spending for reconstruction following last year's earthquake.
But growth has stalled since then. Indeed, second-quarter growth was revised down in the latest figures by half to just 0.1%. The last quarterly economic contraction was in the October-December period of 2011, when GDP fell 0.3%. But growth has stalled since then. Second-quarter growth was revised down in the latest figures by half to just 0.1%. The last quarterly economic contraction was in October-December 2011, when GDP fell 0.3%.
With the economic affect of rebuilding from last year's earthquake and tsunami fading, the government acknowledged last week that its index of leading indicators gauge fell to a level suggesting the onset of a recession. With the economic effect of rebuilding from last year's earthquake and tsunami fading, the government acknowledged last week that its index of leading indicators gauge fell to a level suggesting the onset of a recession.
"I can not deny the possibility that Japan has fallen into a recession phase," Maehara told reporters after the data was released. "I cannot deny the possibility that Japan has fallen into a recession phase," Maehara told reporters after the data was released.
He said he expected the BOJ to pursue powerful policy easing, although in a speech BOJ head Shirakawa stressed that flooding markets with cash alone wouldn't inflation the economy when interest rates are near zero. The government should boost the economy's growth potential with deregulation and structural reform, he said. He said he expected the BOJ to pursue powerful policy easing, although in a speech BOJ head Shirakawa stressed that flooding markets with cash alone would not inflate the economy when interest rates were near zero. The government should boost the economy's growth potential with deregulation and structural reform, he said.
"Exports and output are likely to remain weak, and domestic demand won't increase enough to make up for the weakness in exports," he said."Exports and output are likely to remain weak, and domestic demand won't increase enough to make up for the weakness in exports," he said.
The BOJ set a 1% inflation target and eased policy in February. It followed up with further stimulus based on asset buying in April, September and October on mounting evidence the economy was on the cusp of a recession. The BOJ set a 1% inflation target and eased policy in February. It followed up with further stimului based on asset-buying in April, September and October on mounting evidence the economy was on the cusp of a recession.
The eurozone is expected to report on Thursday that the economy shrank by 0.2 % in the third quarter, extending a 0.2 % contraction in the second quarter.The eurozone is expected to report on Thursday that the economy shrank by 0.2 % in the third quarter, extending a 0.2 % contraction in the second quarter.