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Labour takes no chances in Manchester byelection after Bradford black eye Labour takes no chances in Manchester byelection after Bradford black eye
(35 minutes later)
There were five minutes until the start of the one and only hustings in Manchester Central and the Conservative candidate was nowhere to be seen. Had Matthew Sephton decided it wasn't worth the bother in a constituency where his party mustered a puny 11.8% of the vote in 2010?There were five minutes until the start of the one and only hustings in Manchester Central and the Conservative candidate was nowhere to be seen. Had Matthew Sephton decided it wasn't worth the bother in a constituency where his party mustered a puny 11.8% of the vote in 2010?
Apparently not, he was just running late from school; he is a teacher, it emerges, despite looking too young to be in sixth form. "Some candidates need to work for a living," sniped a catty young Tory in a navy suit, shooting a pointed glance at Lucy Powell, Labour's energetic contender, who has been campaigning full-time since her selection in April.Apparently not, he was just running late from school; he is a teacher, it emerges, despite looking too young to be in sixth form. "Some candidates need to work for a living," sniped a catty young Tory in a navy suit, shooting a pointed glance at Lucy Powell, Labour's energetic contender, who has been campaigning full-time since her selection in April.
Powell says she is "stony broke" and that if her husband wasn't a doctor she would be struggling. Yet there is no doubt Labour is pouring serious money into the 38-year-old's election drive. Powell says she is "stony-broke" and that if her husband was not a doctor she would be struggling. Yet there is no doubt Labour is pouring serious money into the 38-year-old's election drive.
Usually the party would run a threadbare campaign in such a safe seat, putting up the odd poster and waiting for the votes to roll in. But that was before George Galloway overturned a 10,000-strong Labour majority in Bradford West this year, giving the party a black eye that has yet to fully heal. Now Powell's face beams out from lilac posters strung up across the city. Her team claims to have knocked the doors of all 70,000 constituents – "apart from the swish new tower blocks in the city centre where you can't get past the concierge". Usually the party would run a threadbare campaign in such a safe seat, putting up the odd poster and waiting for the votes to roll in. But that was before George Galloway overturned a 6,000-strong Labour majority in Bradford West this year, giving the party a black eye that has yet to fully heal. Now Powell's face beams out from lilac posters strung up across the city. Her team claims to have knocked on the doors of all 70,000 constituents – "apart from the swish new tower blocks in the city centre where you can't get past the concierge".
Her message appears to have got through to the poorest members of the constituency, where life expectancy is 10 years below the national average. During a damp door-knock in Moss Side, one woman ran out of her house wearing no coat when she saw Powell go past. "When's the election?" asked Samantha Breeze, 42. "I'm voting for Labour, and so is everyone else I know."Her message appears to have got through to the poorest members of the constituency, where life expectancy is 10 years below the national average. During a damp door-knock in Moss Side, one woman ran out of her house wearing no coat when she saw Powell go past. "When's the election?" asked Samantha Breeze, 42. "I'm voting for Labour, and so is everyone else I know."
It emerged that Breeze was soon to lose the house, falling foul of the government's new "bedroom tax" that deducts up to 25% from housing support for "under-occupying" bedrooms. She fears she will be moved to a one-bedroom flat, only for her 19-year-old son to lose his council flat and have to squeeze in with her if the government pushes through plans to withdraw housing benefit from the under-25s. Breeze was voting Labour, she said, because "they care for normal working people, while the Conservatives are for the rich".It emerged that Breeze was soon to lose the house, falling foul of the government's new "bedroom tax" that deducts up to 25% from housing support for "under-occupying" bedrooms. She fears she will be moved to a one-bedroom flat, only for her 19-year-old son to lose his council flat and have to squeeze in with her if the government pushes through plans to withdraw housing benefit from the under-25s. Breeze was voting Labour, she said, because "they care for normal working people, while the Conservatives are for the rich".
Of the three byelections taking place on Thursday alongside the first police and crime commissioner (PCC) elections, Manchester Central is the seat Labour cannot afford to lose. Naturally, they would love to give the Tories a kicking in Corby, and they certainly don't want to mess up Cardiff South and Penarth. But a defeat in the Labour heartlands of Manchester would be a catastrophe, not just for the party but particularly Ed Miliband. Of the three byelections taking place on Thursday alongside the first police and crime commissioner (PCC) elections, Manchester Central is the seat Labour cannot afford to lose. Naturally, they would love to give the Tories a kicking in Corby, and they certainly do not want to mess up Cardiff South and Penarth. But a defeat in the Labour heartlands of Manchester would be a catastrophe, not just for the party but particularly Ed Miliband.
Just over two years ago, bruised after narrowly failing to win the Manchester Withington seat in the general election, Powell licked her wounds while masterminding Miliband's successful party leadership campaign, going on to become his acting chief of staff. In the unlikely event that she chucks away the 10,000-plus majority of the veteran MP Tony Lloyd, a former Labour party chair who has stood down to run for PCC, it will inevitably be interpreted as a personal rejection of the Labour leader.Just over two years ago, bruised after narrowly failing to win the Manchester Withington seat in the general election, Powell licked her wounds while masterminding Miliband's successful party leadership campaign, going on to become his acting chief of staff. In the unlikely event that she chucks away the 10,000-plus majority of the veteran MP Tony Lloyd, a former Labour party chair who has stood down to run for PCC, it will inevitably be interpreted as a personal rejection of the Labour leader.
It is no surprise, then, that he has mucked in with Powell's campaign. A few weekends ago he appeared with her at the city's velodrome, home to Team GB's superlative track cycling team, a venue which, along with the regenerated Arndale Centre and Manchester City's new ground, is a symbol of how the constituency has changed since the IRA blew a hole in the middle of it in 1996.It is no surprise, then, that he has mucked in with Powell's campaign. A few weekends ago he appeared with her at the city's velodrome, home to Team GB's superlative track cycling team, a venue which, along with the regenerated Arndale Centre and Manchester City's new ground, is a symbol of how the constituency has changed since the IRA blew a hole in the middle of it in 1996.
Yet Powell is keen to play down her connections to the Labour high command. She is well aware she runs the risk of being portrayed as yet another political prince(ss)ling. A former director of the pro-European campaign Britain in Europe (a fact she doesn't mention on her campaign website), it is easy for her rivals to dismiss her as just the latest wonk with connections to the top brass. "My worry is that this is just a stepping stone for her, for a shadow cabinet job or some sort of promotion," said the Lib Dem candidate Marc Ramsbottom, who came second to Lloyd in 2010. Yet Powell is keen to play down her connections to the Labour high command. She is well aware she runs the risk of being portrayed as yet another political princess. A former director of the pro-European campaign Britain in Europe (a fact she doesn't mention on her campaign website), it is easy for her rivals to dismiss her as just the latest wonk with connections to the top brass. "My worry is that this is just a stepping stone for her, for a shadow cabinet job or some sort of promotion," said the Liberal Democrat's candidate, Marc Ramsbottom, who came second to Lloyd in 2010.
It's an accusation Powell is quick to deny, while conceding that she wouldn't rule out a ministerial position. "Obviously, if it was the right thing that Ed wanted me to do, if I thought it was something I could contribute to, then I would because it's a way you can make a difference," she said. It is an accusation that Powell is quick to deny, while conceding that she would not rule out a ministerial position. "Obviously, if it was the right thing that Ed wanted me to do, if I thought it was something I could contribute to, then I would because it's a way you can make a difference," she said.
She bristles at any suggestion she was given the seat as a reward. "In no sense was I given it. It was an open, normal, fair selection that was very, very competitive and I won it fair and square … I know people want to say, 'oh, you've been parachuted in', but I absolutely wasn't."She bristles at any suggestion she was given the seat as a reward. "In no sense was I given it. It was an open, normal, fair selection that was very, very competitive and I won it fair and square … I know people want to say, 'oh, you've been parachuted in', but I absolutely wasn't."
She is keener showing off her local credentials. She was born in Moss Side and went to a comprehensive school in the city. Her family moved back north a few years ago; she used to commute to London while working for Miliband, with her toddler daughter in tow. "Although my CV might not suggest it, I do feel like I'm a normal person," she said.She is keener showing off her local credentials. She was born in Moss Side and went to a comprehensive school in the city. Her family moved back north a few years ago; she used to commute to London while working for Miliband, with her toddler daughter in tow. "Although my CV might not suggest it, I do feel like I'm a normal person," she said.
Other candidates suggest she has no idea what life is like for many in the constituency. At the hustings, Catherine Higgins, an unemployed mother of six running for Galloway's Respect party, said: "I'm one of those people who goes to Asda at the end of the week and has to take something out of my basket at the till because I haven't got enough to pay for everything."Other candidates suggest she has no idea what life is like for many in the constituency. At the hustings, Catherine Higgins, an unemployed mother of six running for Galloway's Respect party, said: "I'm one of those people who goes to Asda at the end of the week and has to take something out of my basket at the till because I haven't got enough to pay for everything."
Eyebrows were raised when Lloyd announced in the spring that he was giving up being an MP after almost 30 years in order to run for PCC. To some it was typical of Labour complacency: "It's almost like jobs for the boys. There's this assumption that he is almost going to be anointed to that position instead of elected," said the Lib Dem Ramsbottom. Eyebrows were raised when Lloyd announced in the spring that he was giving up being an MP after almost 30 years in order to run for PCC. To some, it was typical of Labour complacency: "It's almost like jobs for the boys. There's this assumption that he is almost going to be anointed to that position instead of elected," said the Lib Dem, Ramsbottom.
Lloyd appeared aghast at the suggestion that it was somehow presumptuous of him to give up the seat he has held safely since 1997 in order to run – and, most likely, win – the city's first PCC election. "Presumptuous?" he said last week, clearly cross at the impertinence of the suggestion. "I would have thought rather the opposite: I am taking my chances within the electorate because it matters.Lloyd appeared aghast at the suggestion that it was somehow presumptuous of him to give up the seat he has held safely since 1997 in order to run – and, most likely, win – the city's first PCC election. "Presumptuous?" he said last week, clearly cross at the impertinence of the suggestion. "I would have thought rather the opposite: I am taking my chances within the electorate because it matters.
"The electorate might choose someone else, in which case I'll be unemployed. I think it's actually astonishing that someone could put it in those terms, without being rude. Reckless with my own future? Maybe. But presumptuous? It isn't a fair charge.""The electorate might choose someone else, in which case I'll be unemployed. I think it's actually astonishing that someone could put it in those terms, without being rude. Reckless with my own future? Maybe. But presumptuous? It isn't a fair charge."
Yet everyone the Guardian spoke to in Manchester Central, from members of a pensioners' luncheon club in Clayton to people on the streets of the city's most notorious estates, presumes Labour will win both votes on Thursday. "However I vote, Labour will win," said Max Cherie, 83, over beef stew in Clayton. "It doesn't matter who I choose, the result will be the same. Labour, Labour, Labour."Yet everyone the Guardian spoke to in Manchester Central, from members of a pensioners' luncheon club in Clayton to people on the streets of the city's most notorious estates, presumes Labour will win both votes on Thursday. "However I vote, Labour will win," said Max Cherie, 83, over beef stew in Clayton. "It doesn't matter who I choose, the result will be the same. Labour, Labour, Labour."