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Pakistan to free Taliban prisoners to start Afghan peace process Pakistan to free Taliban prisoners to start Afghan peace process
(about 1 month later)
Pakistan has finally agreed to long-standing demands by Afghanistan to release Taliban prisoners as part of efforts by Hamid Karzai to kickstart a peace process with the Islamist rebel group.Pakistan has finally agreed to long-standing demands by Afghanistan to release Taliban prisoners as part of efforts by Hamid Karzai to kickstart a peace process with the Islamist rebel group.
The agreement marked the culmination of more than a year of often acrimonious diplomacy between the two countries, but doubts hung over whether the prisoners to be released were the top-level insurgent leaders demanded by Salahuddin Rabbani, the Afghan official leading efforts to establish talks with the Taliban.The agreement marked the culmination of more than a year of often acrimonious diplomacy between the two countries, but doubts hung over whether the prisoners to be released were the top-level insurgent leaders demanded by Salahuddin Rabbani, the Afghan official leading efforts to establish talks with the Taliban.
Anywhere between seven and 14 are to be released, but some analysts expressed fears that Afghanistan had been fobbed off with relatively unimportant commanders.Anywhere between seven and 14 are to be released, but some analysts expressed fears that Afghanistan had been fobbed off with relatively unimportant commanders.
According to Pakistani intelligence officials one name was definitely not on the list: Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a former deputy head of the Taliban movement who hails from the same Pashtun tribe as Karzai.According to Pakistani intelligence officials one name was definitely not on the list: Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a former deputy head of the Taliban movement who hails from the same Pashtun tribe as Karzai.
His arrest by Pakistani authorities in the city of Karachi in 2010 has long been regarded by analysts as a deliberate move to scupper fledgling talks between one of the most senior insurgent leaders and the Karzai government. Kabul has demanded his release ever since.His arrest by Pakistani authorities in the city of Karachi in 2010 has long been regarded by analysts as a deliberate move to scupper fledgling talks between one of the most senior insurgent leaders and the Karzai government. Kabul has demanded his release ever since.
Pakistan has been accused of playing a "double game" with the Afghan Taliban, simultaneously giving some support to the Islamist insurgents while being a nominal ally of the Nato countries struggling to bring greater security to Afghanistan.Pakistan has been accused of playing a "double game" with the Afghan Taliban, simultaneously giving some support to the Islamist insurgents while being a nominal ally of the Nato countries struggling to bring greater security to Afghanistan.
Diplomats and analysts believe Baradar was arrested because his discussions with the Karzai government were outside the control of Pakistan's intelligence services.Diplomats and analysts believe Baradar was arrested because his discussions with the Karzai government were outside the control of Pakistan's intelligence services.
Rabbani, who has held the position of chairman of the High Peace Council for more than a year, had long refused to visit Islamabad unless the Pakistani government was prepared to include the fate of Baradar on its agenda.Rabbani, who has held the position of chairman of the High Peace Council for more than a year, had long refused to visit Islamabad unless the Pakistani government was prepared to include the fate of Baradar on its agenda.
That he turned up in the Pakistani capital this week for days of meetings with civilian and military leaders was taken as a sign the Taliban reconciliation process involving Pakistan was back on track.That he turned up in the Pakistani capital this week for days of meetings with civilian and military leaders was taken as a sign the Taliban reconciliation process involving Pakistan was back on track.
But some Afghan analysts continue to doubt Pakistani intentions.But some Afghan analysts continue to doubt Pakistani intentions.
"This is the game of Pakistan to deliver smaller fish just to extract maximum outcomes but delivering something insignificant," said Davood Muradian, director of a Kabul security thinktank."This is the game of Pakistan to deliver smaller fish just to extract maximum outcomes but delivering something insignificant," said Davood Muradian, director of a Kabul security thinktank.
Last month an Afghan official intimately involved in the negotiating process said Rabbani would demand the release of three prisoners initially: Baradar, Mullah Nooruddin Turabi and Anwar al haq Mujahid.Last month an Afghan official intimately involved in the negotiating process said Rabbani would demand the release of three prisoners initially: Baradar, Mullah Nooruddin Turabi and Anwar al haq Mujahid.
On Wednesday the BBC reported that Turabi, a former justice minister strongly associated with some of the worst excesses of the Taliban while they were in power in the late 1990s, would be among those released.On Wednesday the BBC reported that Turabi, a former justice minister strongly associated with some of the worst excesses of the Taliban while they were in power in the late 1990s, would be among those released.
Mujahid, a former commander of Taliban faction the Tora Bora Military Front, owes his importance to his father, Younis Khalis, one of the most important mujahideen leaders who fought against the Russian occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s.Mujahid, a former commander of Taliban faction the Tora Bora Military Front, owes his importance to his father, Younis Khalis, one of the most important mujahideen leaders who fought against the Russian occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s.
Afghan negotiators also wanted the three men to be released unconditionally, and not into Afghan custody. Officials said it was worth running the risk they might return to the battlefield because they would have more credibility as peace negotiators. On Wednesday it was also unclear whether the Pakistanis had agreed to that demand.Afghan negotiators also wanted the three men to be released unconditionally, and not into Afghan custody. Officials said it was worth running the risk they might return to the battlefield because they would have more credibility as peace negotiators. On Wednesday it was also unclear whether the Pakistanis had agreed to that demand.
Many experts wonder whether the prisoner release will change anything.Many experts wonder whether the prisoner release will change anything.
"The reality check is that the war continues," said Michael Semple, a former UN and EU diplomat and expert on the Taliban who has long advocated peace talks. "Prisoner releases are only useful in a peace process if they address injustice or are part of moves towards a cessation of violence."The reality check is that the war continues," said Michael Semple, a former UN and EU diplomat and expert on the Taliban who has long advocated peace talks. "Prisoner releases are only useful in a peace process if they address injustice or are part of moves towards a cessation of violence.
"Putting fighters back on the street without other elements of a ceasefire may sustain the conflict rather than promoting peace.""Putting fighters back on the street without other elements of a ceasefire may sustain the conflict rather than promoting peace."
Rabbani is the son of the former Afghan president Burhanuddin Rabbani who was assassinated last year by a man who concealed a bomb in his turban. The incident appeared to scupper hopes of a negotiated settlement to the war in Afghanistan, with many Afghans assuming Pakistan was responsible for his killing.Rabbani is the son of the former Afghan president Burhanuddin Rabbani who was assassinated last year by a man who concealed a bomb in his turban. The incident appeared to scupper hopes of a negotiated settlement to the war in Afghanistan, with many Afghans assuming Pakistan was responsible for his killing.
Hopes are rising once again, in part because of public and private assurances from senior Pakistani civilian and military leaders who have told Afghan, British and US diplomats that they are committed to a political process.Hopes are rising once again, in part because of public and private assurances from senior Pakistani civilian and military leaders who have told Afghan, British and US diplomats that they are committed to a political process.
Diplomats say the powerful army chief Ashfaq Pervez Kayani is, in private, adamant that Pakistan does not want to see the violent return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan, fearing that would only further destabilise Pakistan.Diplomats say the powerful army chief Ashfaq Pervez Kayani is, in private, adamant that Pakistan does not want to see the violent return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan, fearing that would only further destabilise Pakistan.
But scepticism remains about Pakistani intentions.But scepticism remains about Pakistani intentions.
"The Pakistanis have never 'seen the light': they want to be involved to maximise their bargaining position and not 'lose' on the investment that they have made in backing the Taliban," said a western official in Kabul who has been closely involved in peace efforts."The Pakistanis have never 'seen the light': they want to be involved to maximise their bargaining position and not 'lose' on the investment that they have made in backing the Taliban," said a western official in Kabul who has been closely involved in peace efforts.
He added that although Pakistan wants a political deal to end the conflict, it does not want one on terms that are unacceptable to the Afghan government. In the meantime, Pakistan continues to back not only insurgents, but increasingly "younger and more radical elements with whom they put direct advisers", he said.He added that although Pakistan wants a political deal to end the conflict, it does not want one on terms that are unacceptable to the Afghan government. In the meantime, Pakistan continues to back not only insurgents, but increasingly "younger and more radical elements with whom they put direct advisers", he said.
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