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| Minor revolution in policing excites minor interest among voters | Minor revolution in policing excites minor interest among voters |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| Forty million adults across England and Wales may be eligible to vote on Thursday in the first-ever elections for police and crime commissioners, but there seems little doubt that this minor revolution in the way we are policed will be met with widespread apathy. | Forty million adults across England and Wales may be eligible to vote on Thursday in the first-ever elections for police and crime commissioners, but there seems little doubt that this minor revolution in the way we are policed will be met with widespread apathy. |
| The latest polling suggests that the turnout for voting on the powerful new job of holding to account the 41 police forces outside London will reach 25-30%, which is not far below the level of some recent English local government elections, but just above the record low of 23% in the 1999 European elections. | The latest polling suggests that the turnout for voting on the powerful new job of holding to account the 41 police forces outside London will reach 25-30%, which is not far below the level of some recent English local government elections, but just above the record low of 23% in the 1999 European elections. |
| The birth has not been auspicious. Firstly, David Cameron's hopes of attracting people from all backgrounds – not just politicians – to a "big job for a big local figure" were dealt early blows when Falklands veteran Simon Weston withdrew because he felt it was "too political," and Iraq war veteran Colonel Tim Collins pulled out because he only wanted to do the job part-time. | The birth has not been auspicious. Firstly, David Cameron's hopes of attracting people from all backgrounds – not just politicians – to a "big job for a big local figure" were dealt early blows when Falklands veteran Simon Weston withdrew because he felt it was "too political," and Iraq war veteran Colonel Tim Collins pulled out because he only wanted to do the job part-time. |
| Then the difficult timing of the elections, coming in November rather than in May alongside the other local government polls, was compounded when the direct elections for city mayors were rejected in referendums everywhere except Bristol. | Then the difficult timing of the elections, coming in November rather than in May alongside the other local government polls, was compounded when the direct elections for city mayors were rejected in referendums everywhere except Bristol. |
| The forced withdrawal of four candidates – two Labour and two Conservative – because they had past minor criminal convictions has only served to fuel the accusations of shambles, as did the shredding of two million English language only ballot papers in Wales. But voters in the 41 police force areas will be presented with a choice of 192 candidates for a job which carries the power to hire and fire their chief constable. | The forced withdrawal of four candidates – two Labour and two Conservative – because they had past minor criminal convictions has only served to fuel the accusations of shambles, as did the shredding of two million English language only ballot papers in Wales. But voters in the 41 police force areas will be presented with a choice of 192 candidates for a job which carries the power to hire and fire their chief constable. |
| The supplementary vote system means that second preference votes will be counted until one candidate reaches the 50% mark. | The supplementary vote system means that second preference votes will be counted until one candidate reaches the 50% mark. |
| There are Labour and Tory candidates in every area, even including Northamptonshire where Labour's Lee Barron remains on the ballot paper despite being disqualified under the previous convictions rule. | There are Labour and Tory candidates in every area, even including Northamptonshire where Labour's Lee Barron remains on the ballot paper despite being disqualified under the previous convictions rule. |
| The half-hearted approach of the Liberal Democrats to these elections means they are putting up the same number of candidates as Ukip – 24. There are 54 independent candidates, but the lack of a free mailshot to voters has left many struggling to get any recognition outside their immediate localities. | The half-hearted approach of the Liberal Democrats to these elections means they are putting up the same number of candidates as Ukip – 24. There are 54 independent candidates, but the lack of a free mailshot to voters has left many struggling to get any recognition outside their immediate localities. |
| So what are the prospects when the results are announced on Friday? The only overnight count is taking place in Wiltshire where the Conservatives' Angus Macpherson is expected to be the first elected PCC. The other results are due in between midday and 7pm on Friday. | So what are the prospects when the results are announced on Friday? The only overnight count is taking place in Wiltshire where the Conservatives' Angus Macpherson is expected to be the first elected PCC. The other results are due in between midday and 7pm on Friday. |
| The leading blogger on the PCC elections has been Sam Chapman of TopOfTheCops.com. | The leading blogger on the PCC elections has been Sam Chapman of TopOfTheCops.com. |
| He has stuck his neck out and offered a baseline to judge the emerging results, although he makes clear it takes no account of the effectiveness of individual campaigns or differential turnouts between parties. | He has stuck his neck out and offered a baseline to judge the emerging results, although he makes clear it takes no account of the effectiveness of individual campaigns or differential turnouts between parties. |
| On his reckoning, Labour could win 19 out of the 41 PCC elections, including John Prescott in Humberside, Vera Baird in Northumbria, Jane Kennedy in Merseyside and the father and son team, Alun and Tal Michael in South and North Wales. | On his reckoning, Labour could win 19 out of the 41 PCC elections, including John Prescott in Humberside, Vera Baird in Northumbria, Jane Kennedy in Merseyside and the father and son team, Alun and Tal Michael in South and North Wales. |
| Chapman suggests the Conservatives should have 14 successes, including Sir Graham Bright in Cambridgeshire, Michael Mates in Hampshire, Julie Iles in Surrey and – in Essex – Nick Alston, who was born in a police house in Harwich and whose father was the chief constable of the county. | Chapman suggests the Conservatives should have 14 successes, including Sir Graham Bright in Cambridgeshire, Michael Mates in Hampshire, Julie Iles in Surrey and – in Essex – Nick Alston, who was born in a police house in Harwich and whose father was the chief constable of the county. |
| The remaining eight forces are, he says, too close to call and the ones to watch. They include (with their expected declaration times) Avon and Somerset (5pm), Bedfordshire (3pm), Gloucestershire (12am), Lincolnshire (5pm), Norfolk (6pm), Staffordshire (4pm), Suffolk (2.30pm), and Warwickshire (1pm). | The remaining eight forces are, he says, too close to call and the ones to watch. They include (with their expected declaration times) Avon and Somerset (5pm), Bedfordshire (3pm), Gloucestershire (12am), Lincolnshire (5pm), Norfolk (6pm), Staffordshire (4pm), Suffolk (2.30pm), and Warwickshire (1pm). |
| The Police Foundation's Jon Collins, who has also been tracking the elections, says his personal predictions are not that different although he gives the Tories Gloucestershire and replaces that with Leicestershire in the too-close-to-call column. | The Police Foundation's Jon Collins, who has also been tracking the elections, says his personal predictions are not that different although he gives the Tories Gloucestershire and replaces that with Leicestershire in the too-close-to-call column. |
| There is one clear health warning for the Westminster pundits hoping to see these elections as a national verdict on the coalition. A Labour win for the Greater Manchester police force, which serves 2.5 million people, cannot be given the same weight as a Tory win in Warwickshire, which serves only half a million. | There is one clear health warning for the Westminster pundits hoping to see these elections as a national verdict on the coalition. A Labour win for the Greater Manchester police force, which serves 2.5 million people, cannot be given the same weight as a Tory win in Warwickshire, which serves only half a million. |
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