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Why Lynton Crosby's dog-whistling days may be numbered Why Lynton Crosby's dog-whistling days may be numbered
(35 minutes later)
I am still grateful to the Labour MP who took me aside during the 2005 general election campaign and explained that Lynton Crosby, the Australian campaigns expert now being hired by David Cameron, was an exponent of "dog-whistle politics" – subtle appeals to voter prejudices that were never explicitly articulated. I got the phrase on to an inside page; by the end of the week it was in common use.I am still grateful to the Labour MP who took me aside during the 2005 general election campaign and explained that Lynton Crosby, the Australian campaigns expert now being hired by David Cameron, was an exponent of "dog-whistle politics" – subtle appeals to voter prejudices that were never explicitly articulated. I got the phrase on to an inside page; by the end of the week it was in common use.
So the overnight news that the Tories are hoping to call on Crosby's services as they head towards the 2015 election is good for media tradespeople – among them the cartoonist Martin Rowson. Crosby is a story. But whether that's good for politics in general, or the Tories in particular, seems more doubtful. A good story for the press is not necessarily good in an ethical sense. Quite the reverse: it's usually deemed a better story if the bus full of nuns explodes on impact after going over the bridge.So the overnight news that the Tories are hoping to call on Crosby's services as they head towards the 2015 election is good for media tradespeople – among them the cartoonist Martin Rowson. Crosby is a story. But whether that's good for politics in general, or the Tories in particular, seems more doubtful. A good story for the press is not necessarily good in an ethical sense. Quite the reverse: it's usually deemed a better story if the bus full of nuns explodes on impact after going over the bridge.
But who will be going over the bridge with alpha-male Crosby in the Tory driving seat? Ed Miliband's Labour party, so the Tories must hope, or even assume. But are they right ? Or has Cameron just committed a foolish error that will divide his party – it's already doing that – and offend fair-minded voters? In the Telegraph, Peter Oborne, guns blazing away as always, says the move will negate every decent instinct Cameron stands for. Could even Pundit Pete be right on this occasion? But who will be going over the bridge with alpha-male Crosby in the Tory driving seat? Ed Miliband's Labour party, so the Tories must hope, or even assume. But are they right? Or has Cameron just committed a foolish error that will divide his party – it's already doing that – and offend fair-minded voters? In the Telegraph, Peter Oborne, guns blazing away as always, says the move will negate every decent instinct Cameron stands for. Could even Pundit Pete be right on this occasion?
The PM knows he faces an uphill struggle winning the next election as a majority party, possibly even in coalition with Nick Whatsit. His team at No 10 has lost much of the talent that failed to win last time. It lacks the common touch: the low arts of politics by which, in Lloyd George's famous remark, a leader can "square 'em or squash 'em".The PM knows he faces an uphill struggle winning the next election as a majority party, possibly even in coalition with Nick Whatsit. His team at No 10 has lost much of the talent that failed to win last time. It lacks the common touch: the low arts of politics by which, in Lloyd George's famous remark, a leader can "square 'em or squash 'em".
Boris Johnson calls the Wizard of Oz ( did Lynton make up that one himself, do you suppose?) the best campaign manager he has ever seen. But the former MP for ultra-safe Henley is hardly a connoisseur: he probably knows as much as my cat (the one that got run over). London voters were looking for an excuse to vote against twice-mayor Livingstone and jolly Boris, vigorously assisted by Andrew "sexed-up" Gilligan, who ran the Evening Standard's anti-corruption campaign (no one convicted yet, I think), gave them one. Boris Johnson calls the "Wizard of Oz" (did Lynton make up that one himself, do you suppose?) the best campaign manager he has ever seen. But the former MP for ultra-safe Henley is hardly a connoisseur: he probably knows as much as my cat (the one that got run over). London voters were looking for an excuse to vote against twice-mayor Livingstone and jolly Boris, vigorously assisted by Andrew "sexed-up" Gilligan, who ran the Evening Standard's anti-corruption campaign (no one convicted yet, I think), gave them one.
Boris's slapdash style is well illustrated in his weekly Monday column in the Telegraph, which at a reported £5,000 a pop is worth an hour of his Sunday afternoon. The subject of his latest is the looming EU budget veto. The London mayor huffs and puffs on Cameron's vetoing behalf for most of his five grand, then ends up on a whimper: Boris would accept a frozen EU budget ! Would that be in cash terms? Or inflation-proofed? Hizonner doesn't say. But it's what Frau Merkel would like, too. Boris's slapdash style is well illustrated in his weekly Monday column in the Telegraph, which at a reported £5,000 a pop is worth an hour of his Sunday afternoon. The subject of his latest is the looming EU budget veto. The London mayor huffs and puffs on Cameron's vetoing behalf for most of his five grand, then ends up on a whimper: Boris would accept a frozen EU budget! Would that be in cash terms? Or inflation-proofed? Hizonner doesn't say. But it's what Frau Merkel would like, too.
I prefer to dwell on the 2005 general election campaign. Crosby's style, which had worked for Michael Howard's namesake, John Howard, in Canberra, was summed up in a series of dodgy posters about crime, Europe and immigrants ( or was it Gypsies?) all bearing the slogan, "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" I prefer to dwell on the 2005 general election campaign. Crosby's style, which had worked for Michael Howard's namesake, John Howard, in Canberra, was summed up in a series of dodgy posters about crime, Europe and immigrants (or was it Gypsies?) all bearing the slogan: "Are you thinking what we're thinking?"
Quite a lot of voters – though not quite enough – were thinking it, and Michael Howard finally slowed down the Blair election juggernaut, returning 198 MPs. That was 32 more than in William Hague's baleful 2001 campaign, whose net gain was one MP. But Blair was still left with a working majority of 66, and the Tory vote rose by just 0.7% of extra voters who were thinking what they were thinking. The third parties, led by Charlie Kennedy, did best. I'd argue that the Iraq war did more to dent Blair's popularity than Lynton Crosby.Quite a lot of voters – though not quite enough – were thinking it, and Michael Howard finally slowed down the Blair election juggernaut, returning 198 MPs. That was 32 more than in William Hague's baleful 2001 campaign, whose net gain was one MP. But Blair was still left with a working majority of 66, and the Tory vote rose by just 0.7% of extra voters who were thinking what they were thinking. The third parties, led by Charlie Kennedy, did best. I'd argue that the Iraq war did more to dent Blair's popularity than Lynton Crosby.
And at this stage, the economy still looked pretty good. Remember that until November 2008, the Tories were for (even) lighter regulation of the City, lower taxes and (under Cameron) for matching Labour's spending plans. After that, it was pretty obvious the Lehman Brothers crash had signalled that the party was over.And at this stage, the economy still looked pretty good. Remember that until November 2008, the Tories were for (even) lighter regulation of the City, lower taxes and (under Cameron) for matching Labour's spending plans. After that, it was pretty obvious the Lehman Brothers crash had signalled that the party was over.
I'm not alone in Crosby-scepticism. It's not that, as reported, he used a rude word when urging Boris not to waste campaign time on Muslim voters. It's OK to be rude about people – even Muslims, especially in private – when you think no Mail on Sunday sneaks are present. I'm sure most of us do it, one way or another: deplorable, I know, but Mother Teresa could be really mouthy over a few drinks. I made up that last bit. I'm not alone in Crosby-scepticism. It's not that, as reported, he used a rude word when urging Boris not to waste campaign time on Muslim voters. It's OK to be rude about people – even Muslims, especially in private – when you think no Mail on Sunday sneaks are present. I'm sure most of us do it, one way or another: deplorable, I know, but Mother Teresa could be really mouthy over a few drinks. I made up that last bit.
Concentrating on the core Tory vote in London seems sensible enough advice for a stumbling Boris in 2008. That's what matters, more than a leak designed to damage the compact Australian.Concentrating on the core Tory vote in London seems sensible enough advice for a stumbling Boris in 2008. That's what matters, more than a leak designed to damage the compact Australian.
Crosby is credited with John Howard's migrant-baiting tactics which won him four elections in Oz. As Andrew Pierce reports in the Daily Mail, unpleasant side-effects included John Howard's claim (later shown to be untrue) that a ship full of asylum seekers had thrown children over the side to blackmail their way into Australia. Crosby is credited with John Howard's migrant-baiting tactics which won him four elections in Oz. As Andrew Pierce reports in the Daily Mail, unpleasant side-effects included John Howard's claim (later shown to be untrue) that a ship full of asylum seekers had thrown children over the side to blackmail their way into Australia.
Not very nice (if true), and not a sentiment that would play well over here with swing voters, as distinct from the unswinging kind, I suspect. That should be pretty obvious after what happened in this month's US elections. The rightwing press, here as well as there, has been complaining since Barack Obama won his second term that the Democrats played really dirty against Mitt Romney.Not very nice (if true), and not a sentiment that would play well over here with swing voters, as distinct from the unswinging kind, I suspect. That should be pretty obvious after what happened in this month's US elections. The rightwing press, here as well as there, has been complaining since Barack Obama won his second term that the Democrats played really dirty against Mitt Romney.
I wouldn't be surprised if they were half as bad as Richard Littlejohn, claims, with injured innocence, but you'd have to get up quite early to outdo some of the things said about Obama – not to mention things Romney said about that parasitic 47% of Americans who live off the state. In case you've forgotten, they include pensioners. A lot of hardworking ethnic minorities felt offended, too. I wouldn't be surprised if they were half as bad as Richard Littlejohn claims, with injured innocence, but you would have to get up quite early to outdo some of the things said about Obama – not to mention things Romney said about that parasitic 47% of Americans who live off the state. In case you've forgotten, they include pensioners. A lot of hardworking ethnic minorities felt offended, too.
There weren't enough of what one smart Republican senator calls "angry white men" to offset their distaste. It's maths, but it's also ethics.There weren't enough of what one smart Republican senator calls "angry white men" to offset their distaste. It's maths, but it's also ethics.
So, tone matters. It's OK to challenge the immigration or bank regulatory record of the Labour government – both too lax – and to question the budgetary plans of the European commission staff in planet Brussels. But the more sensitive the subject, the more tone matters. It's OK to oppose gay marriage as a government priority – a policy Cameron's current pollster, Andrew Cooper, advised him to embrace – but you have to try to respect both sides.So, tone matters. It's OK to challenge the immigration or bank regulatory record of the Labour government – both too lax – and to question the budgetary plans of the European commission staff in planet Brussels. But the more sensitive the subject, the more tone matters. It's OK to oppose gay marriage as a government priority – a policy Cameron's current pollster, Andrew Cooper, advised him to embrace – but you have to try to respect both sides.
In Oz, where the language of public discourse can be boisterous, they have a memorable government slogan on billboards: Dob in a Bludger. In pom English, that's inviting us all to report our neighbour if we suspect him or her of benefit fraud. It's a magnificent phrase, and Australia is a lovely country in all sorts of ways (don't believe John Pilger). But it's not us. In Oz, where the language of public discourse can be boisterous, they have a memorable government slogan on billboards: "Dob in a Bludger." In pom English, that's inviting us all to report our neighbour if we suspect him or her of benefit fraud. It's a magnificent phrase, and Australia is a lovely country in all sorts of ways (don't believe John Pilger). But it's not us.
More to the point, Australia is changing – as we are changing and the US is changing.More to the point, Australia is changing – as we are changing and the US is changing.
Welsh-born Julia Gillard is PM there now, not John Howard, and she has taken on the country's reactionaries in all sorts of ways. Rebelliousness v puritan authority, sometimes called the larrikin-wowser nexus, is a complex issue. But it is Australian, not British. Welsh-born Julia Gillard is PM there now, not John Howard, and she has taken on the country's reactionaries in all sorts of ways. Rebelliousness v puritan authority, sometimes called the larrikin-wowser nexus, is a complex issue. But it is Australian, not British.
Lynton Crosby has voluntarily emigrated to this country (why, if he was doing so well, I wonder?) and should respect our quaint old ways. If he is disinclined to do so, I should only add that the former Tory party treasury Lord Michael Ashcroft seems to have taken against the appointment, as Tim Montgomerie describes in his insider account. Ashcroft is the possessor of a very large fortune and has swum safely through the dangerous waters of Central American politics. He fears the appointment may prove a divisive and "distracting influence". Lynton Crosby has voluntarily emigrated to this country (why, if he was doing so well, I wonder?) and should respect our quaint old ways. If he is disinclined to do so, I should only add that the former Tory party treasurer Lord Ashcroft seems to have taken against the appointment, as Tim Montgomerie describes in his insider account. Ashcroft is the possessor of a very large fortune and has swum safely through the dangerous waters of Central American politics. He fears the appointment may prove a divisive and "distracting influence".
Ashcroft is both shrewd and powerful. If I were a Tory functionary, I would not wish to cross him.Ashcroft is both shrewd and powerful. If I were a Tory functionary, I would not wish to cross him.
Tick-tock, tick-tock: is that a dog whistle I hear or is it an alarm clock? If so, for once it is Mr Crosby who may prove to be the hunted Captain Hook of Tory politics, and Lord Ashcroft the patient crocodile.Tick-tock, tick-tock: is that a dog whistle I hear or is it an alarm clock? If so, for once it is Mr Crosby who may prove to be the hunted Captain Hook of Tory politics, and Lord Ashcroft the patient crocodile.