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Ukip benefiting from disillusionment with main political parties, poll finds Ukip benefiting from disillusionment with main political parties, poll finds
(about 7 hours later)
Ukip is emerging as the chief beneficiary of a mood of disillusionment with all the main parties, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll.Ukip is emerging as the chief beneficiary of a mood of disillusionment with all the main parties, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll.
Support for all three main parties fell back a point compared with the previous month leaving Labour on 40%, the Conservatives on 32% and the Liberal Democrats on 13%. But Ukip picked up many of those votes, with a two percentage point surge to 7%. Support for all three main parties fell back a point compared with the previous month, leaving Labour on 40%, the Conservatives on 32% and the Liberal Democrats on 13%. Ukip picked up many of those votes, with a two percentage point surge to 7%.
The poll was conducted at the end of last week in the wake of the police commissioner ballots which saw record lows in turnout and Ukip outpolling the Liberal Democrats. The Eurosceptic party also outpolled the Lib Dems in the Corby byelection.The poll was conducted at the end of last week in the wake of the police commissioner ballots which saw record lows in turnout and Ukip outpolling the Liberal Democrats. The Eurosceptic party also outpolled the Lib Dems in the Corby byelection.
The ICM/Guardian survey showed that Labour's solid eight-point lead held firm over the previous month, but a growing proportion of voters were looking for an alternative home, particularly at Ukip. The combined total of the assorted minor parties rose three points to 15%, a score which has never been bettered in the 28-year history of the Guardian/ICM series. Within that total, Ukip is up two points since October, to stand at 7%, the Scottish Nationalists are up one to 4%, the Greens are stable on 2% and Plaid Cymru has inched up from nowhere to claim 1% of the Great-Britain-wide vote. The ICM/Guardian survey showed that Labour's solid eight-point lead held firm over the previous month, but a growing proportion of voters were looking for an alternative home, particularly at Ukip. The combined total of the assorted minor parties rose three points to 15%, a score that has never been bettered in the 28-year history of the Guardian/ICM series.
Ukip's polling advance comes a few weeks after David Cameron's government was defeated on the floor of the Commons over the EU budget, and the day after a separate survey for the Observer found that a majority of the British electorate now wants to quit Europe. Last week Ukip candidates narrowly beat Liberal Democrats into fourth place in the ballots for police commissioners across England and Wales, and the party also claimed a more convincing third place in the Corby byelection. Various other polls at the weekend confirmed its current strength, with scores ranging 8% with YouGov to 10% with Opinium. Within that total, Ukip was up two points since October, to stand at 7%, the Scottish Nationalists were up one to 4%, the Greens were stable on 2% and Plaid Cymru had inched up from nowhere to claim 1% of the Great-Britain-wide vote.
Although there is evidence that Ukip support is drawn from across the political spectrum, the party's policies tend to be pitched firmly to the right of centre, and it is the Tories who feel their competition most keenly. Aside from this September, when the Conservatives hit 31% – their worst score in nearly a decade – their 32% rating on Monday is as bad as any previously seen under the seven-year-old Cameron leadership. After female votes proved decisive in the American presidential election, the party will be especially dismayed to learn that it remains 17 points behind among women, who prefer Labour by a 47%-30% margin. Ukip's polling advance comes a few weeks after David Cameron's government was defeated on the floor of the Commons over the EU budget, and a day after a separate survey for the Observer found that a majority of the British electorate now wants to quit Europe.
Cameron is falling from favour in personal terms, too. This month ICM asked about which political leader would make the best prime minister, and Cameron's score on that measure of 33% is five points down from the 38% score he achieved the last time the same question was put to voters in January 2011. The silver lining for the prime minister, however, is that his own decline is not matched by any enthusiasm for his chief rival – who remains less popular. Only 25% of voters name Ed Miliband as the best PM, unchanged since January 2011. Miliband has recently been making progress on other criteria – such as voters' satisfaction with the way in which he is doing his job as opposition leader – but he will be disappointed to have made no advance at all on being thought of as prime ministerial. Last week Ukip candidates narrowly beat Liberal Democrats into fourth place in the ballots for police commissioners across England and Wales, and the party also claimed a more convincing third place in the Corby byelection. Various other polls at the weekend confirmed its current strength, with scores ranging 8% with YouGov to 10% with Opinium.
Although there is evidence that Ukip support is drawn from across the political spectrum, the party's policies tend to be pitched firmly to the right of centre, and it is the Tories who feel the competition most keenly. Aside from this September, when the Conservatives hit 31% – their worst score in nearly a decade – their 32% rating on Monday is as bad as any previously seen under the seven-year-old Cameron leadership.
After female votes proved decisive in the US presidential election, the party will be especially dismayed to learn that it remains 17 points behind among women, who prefer Labour by a 47%-30% margin.
Cameron is falling from favour in personal terms, too. This month ICM asked about which political leader would make the best prime minister, and Cameron's score on that measure of 33% was five points down from the 38% score he achieved the last time the same question was put to voters, in January 2011.
The silver lining for the prime minister, however, is that his own decline was not matched by any enthusiasm for his chief rival, who remains less popular. Only 25% of voters named Ed Miliband as the best PM, unchanged since January 2011. Miliband has recently been making progress on other criteria – such as voters' satisfaction with the way in which he is doing his job as opposition leader – but he will be disappointed to have made no advance at all on being thought of as prime ministerial.
Nick Clegg's ratings, which were already dreadful in early 2011, are now worse. Back then 12% of respondents thought he would make the best tenant of No 10, but that has now dropped to just 7%. Such is the decline in his standing that even among those who voted Lib Dem in 2010, only 23% now prefer Clegg, which puts him behind both Miliband (26%) and Cameron (25%) among this group.Nick Clegg's ratings, which were already dreadful in early 2011, are now worse. Back then 12% of respondents thought he would make the best tenant of No 10, but that has now dropped to just 7%. Such is the decline in his standing that even among those who voted Lib Dem in 2010, only 23% now prefer Clegg, which puts him behind both Miliband (26%) and Cameron (25%) among this group.
Cameron's continuing relative strength is explained by the high proportion of Tory supporters willing to stick by him – some 85% still rate him as the best PM. That compares well to Miliband's support among Labour voters, 67% of whom prefer him, and the 37% of the reduced band of remaining Lib Dems who think Clegg would make the best PM. Cameron's continuing relative strength is explained by the high proportion of Tory supporters willing to stick by him: 85% still rate him as the best PM. That compares well with Miliband's support among Labour voters, 67% of whom prefer him, and the 37% of the reduced band of remaining Lib Dems who think Clegg would make the best PM.
But with Miliband stagnating in the prime ministerial stakes, while both Cameron and Clegg fall back, the real winner is the anti-political vote. The proportion of voters insisting that "none of them" would make the best PM had been 14% in early 2011, but that proportion has increased by half to stand at 21%.But with Miliband stagnating in the prime ministerial stakes, while both Cameron and Clegg fall back, the real winner is the anti-political vote. The proportion of voters insisting that "none of them" would make the best PM had been 14% in early 2011, but that proportion has increased by half to stand at 21%.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1001 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 16-18 November 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1001 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 16-18 November 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.