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Spoilt ballots point to protest in PCC elections, study suggests Spoilt ballots point to protest in PCC elections, study suggests
(about 4 hours later)
There were more than 120,000 spoilt ballot papers in last Thursday's police and crime commissioner elections, according to a rapid analysis by Reading University's politics department. There were more than 120,000 spoilt ballot papers – or 10 times the rate of recent general elections – in last Thursday's police and crime commissioner elections.
The survey, based on detailed returns from 31 of the 41 police force areas that held elections, suggests there is evidence of more deliberate spoiling of ballot papers as a protest than is usual. A rapid analysis by Reading University's politics department, based on detailed returns from 31 of the 41 police forces that held elections, suggests there is evidence of more deliberate spoiling of ballot papers as a protest than is usual.
Alan Renwick, a reader in comparative politics at the university, said many observers at counts across England and Wales saw ballot papers with mini-essays on them rather than votes. The analysis was published as the Electoral Reform Society released Populus polling data showing that 45% of people who did not vote said they had insufficient information about the new role or the candidates to vote. A further 19% of non-voters – representing nearly 5.8 million people said they had not taken part because they objected to the policy.
"The perception is that some voters expressed their disagreement with the idea of politicising the police by deliberately casting an invalid vote," Renwick wrote on the department's blog. Katie Ghose, of the Electoral Reform Society, said that this was because more people disagreed with the idea of PCCs than bothered heading to the polls. She said the data showed that hostility to the policy was evenly spread among Labour, Liberal Democrat and Conservative supporters.
Alan Renwick, a reader in comparative politics at Reading University, said many observers at counts across England and Wales saw ballot papers with mini-essays on them rather than votes.
"The perception is that some voters expressed their disagreement with the idea of politicising the police by deliberately casting an invalid vote," writes Renwick wrote on the department's blog.
He said 120,336 votes, or 2.9% of the total cast in the 31 force areas that provided detailed figures, were rejected. This compared with 0.3% of votes cast at recent general elections.He said 120,336 votes, or 2.9% of the total cast in the 31 force areas that provided detailed figures, were rejected. This compared with 0.3% of votes cast at recent general elections.
The highest number of spoilt papers was 9,190 in Avon and Somerset, followed by 7,445 in Thames Valley and 7,063 in the West Midlands. The highest proportion was 7.2% in North Yorkshire and 4.3% in Dyfed-Powys, two contests between two candidates, and so conducted by the familiar first-past-the-post rather than the supplementary vote. Renwick said this was evidence of a protest at the policing elections rather than confusion over the voting system. The highest number of spoilt papers was 9,190 in Avon and Somerset, followed by 7,445 in Thames Valley and 7,063 in the West Midlands. The highest proportion was 7.2% in North Yorkshire and 4.3% in Dyfed-Powys – two contests between two candidates, and so under the familiar first-past-the-post rather than the supplementary vote (SV). Renwick said this was evidence of a protest at the policing elections rather than confusion over the voting system.
But in London's mayoral elections, fought on SV lines, the proportion of spoilt papers has been between 1.7% and 3% since 2000, and Renwick said confusion over the voting system may have played a part last week as well.But in London's mayoral elections, fought on SV lines, the proportion of spoilt papers has been between 1.7% and 3% since 2000, and Renwick said confusion over the voting system may have played a part last week as well.
He concludes that the proportion of spoilt ballot papers was slightly higher than in comparable elections, and that this was due to deliberate spoiling, but the evidence was not overwhelming, with only about 1% of voters deliberately spoiling their ballot papers. "Heightened spoiling was found in most areas, so a protest against the system itself very likely also played a part," he wrote.He concludes that the proportion of spoilt ballot papers was slightly higher than in comparable elections, and that this was due to deliberate spoiling, but the evidence was not overwhelming, with only about 1% of voters deliberately spoiling their ballot papers. "Heightened spoiling was found in most areas, so a protest against the system itself very likely also played a part," he wrote.
In the Commons the home secretary, Theresa May, refused to apologise for the "shambles" of last Thursday's elections. Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, claimed that the decision by 85% of the public not to vote demonstrated that the £100m bill for PCCs could have been better spent employing 3,000 more police officers.
Even backbench Conservative MPs said that ministers should acknowledge that major mistakes had been made in the handling of the elections.