This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2012/nov/28/chances-winning-powerball-jackpot
The article has changed 7 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| What are your chances of winning the Powerball jackpot? | What are your chances of winning the Powerball jackpot? |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| It's deja vu all over again. Yogi Berra's comic phrase has a certain pertinency for those who dream of hitting it big in the lottery. | It's deja vu all over again. Yogi Berra's comic phrase has a certain pertinency for those who dream of hitting it big in the lottery. |
| It was as recently as this March when people in the US were going crazy at the chance of winning the $540m Mega Millions jackpot. Now, people are all jumpy over the chance of getting a piece of the currently $500m Powerball grand prize. The tweets in my Twitter feed alone planning on how to turn untold wealth into a life of unimaginable luxury are multiplying by the hour. But – like adding "all over again" to "deja vu" – the excitement doesn't make a lot of sense. Statistically, most people should calm down. | It was as recently as this March when people in the US were going crazy at the chance of winning the $540m Mega Millions jackpot. Now, people are all jumpy over the chance of getting a piece of the currently $500m Powerball grand prize. The tweets in my Twitter feed alone planning on how to turn untold wealth into a life of unimaginable luxury are multiplying by the hour. But – like adding "all over again" to "deja vu" – the excitement doesn't make a lot of sense. Statistically, most people should calm down. |
| The chance of winning the Powerball is 1 in 175,223,510. Since there is a better chance that I go on a successful date over the next six months (I'm quoting odds at about 1 in 10,000), I know that chance is slim. | The chance of winning the Powerball is 1 in 175,223,510. Since there is a better chance that I go on a successful date over the next six months (I'm quoting odds at about 1 in 10,000), I know that chance is slim. |
| If you look at who buys lottery tickets, it's interesting to see that buyers represent a slew of different social classes and education levels. You have senators, bowling teams, fast food workers, and teachers, all taking the plunge. It's no good resorting to intellectual deficiency to explain what causes people to take part in the lottery. | If you look at who buys lottery tickets, it's interesting to see that buyers represent a slew of different social classes and education levels. You have senators, bowling teams, fast food workers, and teachers, all taking the plunge. It's no good resorting to intellectual deficiency to explain what causes people to take part in the lottery. |
| So, why are the members of the proletariat and bourgeoisie alike so ready to flush money down the toilet? | So, why are the members of the proletariat and bourgeoisie alike so ready to flush money down the toilet? |
| One reason is that people simply aren't looking at the numbers. It may pain me to say it, but many people aren't persuaded by something that remains theoretical. It's easier to grasp something that they can see. | One reason is that people simply aren't looking at the numbers. It may pain me to say it, but many people aren't persuaded by something that remains theoretical. It's easier to grasp something that they can see. |
| Look at this past election. Mitt Romney supporters saw massive crowds at his rallies on his television and decided that he would win. It's easy for the mind to equate this visual representation of many Mitt Romney backers with Mitt Romney winning the election. It's more difficult for some to look at the numbers on a page and create a picture based on the data, even if this is the accurate and true one. | Look at this past election. Mitt Romney supporters saw massive crowds at his rallies on his television and decided that he would win. It's easy for the mind to equate this visual representation of many Mitt Romney backers with Mitt Romney winning the election. It's more difficult for some to look at the numbers on a page and create a picture based on the data, even if this is the accurate and true one. |
| It's the same way with the lottery. I tell you the raw odds of winning the Powerball, and it's just not that powerfully persuasive. I show you a video of a bowling team from Buffalo celebrating their millions, and you can connect the dots. | It's the same way with the lottery. I tell you the raw odds of winning the Powerball, and it's just not that powerfully persuasive. I show you a video of a bowling team from Buffalo celebrating their millions, and you can connect the dots. |
| A second reason is that people let their emotions get the better of them. Using our election example, the pictures of Romney's crowds gave his voters hope. The polls did not. People wanted to believe one piece of evidence over the other. | A second reason is that people let their emotions get the better of them. Using our election example, the pictures of Romney's crowds gave his voters hope. The polls did not. People wanted to believe one piece of evidence over the other. |
| With concern to the lottery, people may understand the odds on paper quite well. They just choose to ignore them. If it could it happen to Nick Cage and Bridget Fonda in "It Could Happen to You", then I don't care what the odds say. | With concern to the lottery, people may understand the odds on paper quite well. They just choose to ignore them. If it could it happen to Nick Cage and Bridget Fonda in "It Could Happen to You", then I don't care what the odds say. |
| Third, the odds simply don't explain the utility people get out of the lottery. If I join my co-workers here at the Guardian's US office in a lotto poll, we can talk about how we'll spend the money and watch the results together. This could be quite enjoyable. This feel-good emotion combines with the fact that the just the idea of the remote chance of winning provides a greater dose of happiness than the small disappointment of losing can cancel out. In this situation, one is acknowledging and accepting the true odds, yet allowing that they don't tell the full story. | Third, the odds simply don't explain the utility people get out of the lottery. If I join my co-workers here at the Guardian's US office in a lotto poll, we can talk about how we'll spend the money and watch the results together. This could be quite enjoyable. This feel-good emotion combines with the fact that the just the idea of the remote chance of winning provides a greater dose of happiness than the small disappointment of losing can cancel out. In this situation, one is acknowledging and accepting the true odds, yet allowing that they don't tell the full story. |
| I'm sure whoever you know who is buying a ticket is doing so for one, or a combination, of these reasons. If they just simply don't know the math, then be sure to share the following numbers with them. | I'm sure whoever you know who is buying a ticket is doing so for one, or a combination, of these reasons. If they just simply don't know the math, then be sure to share the following numbers with them. |
| Get that? So, even if you got into a plane crash, which odds put at about 1 in 675,000, you still have a 22 in 23 chance of surviving. I think I'll take that airline flight, after all. | Get that? So, even if you got into a plane crash, which odds put at about 1 in 675,000, you still have a 22 in 23 chance of surviving. I think I'll take that airline flight, after all. |
| I won't be getting my hopes up for the Buffalo Bills, though. The chance of the 4-7 and terribly-coached Buffalo Bills winning the Super Bowl is 1 in 1,000. I should note that this is 175,000 times more likely than winning the Powerball at 1 in 175 million. | I won't be getting my hopes up for the Buffalo Bills, though. The chance of the 4-7 and terribly-coached Buffalo Bills winning the Super Bowl is 1 in 1,000. I should note that this is 175,000 times more likely than winning the Powerball at 1 in 175 million. |
| Perhaps, sports aren't your thing. Maybe, you were of those people who played Pokemon growing up. If you did, you probably were all about the Shiny Pokemon. You knew that landing it was like finding a needle in the haystack. It turns out that if you look long enough, you'd find plenty of these Shiny Pokemon – given 1 in 8,192 odds of finding one – before ever landing a winning Powerball ticket. | Perhaps, sports aren't your thing. Maybe, you were of those people who played Pokemon growing up. If you did, you probably were all about the Shiny Pokemon. You knew that landing it was like finding a needle in the haystack. It turns out that if you look long enough, you'd find plenty of these Shiny Pokemon – given 1 in 8,192 odds of finding one – before ever landing a winning Powerball ticket. |
| Or maybe, you were a drama nerd and wanted to go to Hollywood and become an award-winner? Your mother probably scolded you for thinking such silly thoughts, and, on average, she was right. That said, she was a mighty statistical hypocrite if she then went and bought a lottery ticket. You have about a 1 in 7 million chance of taking home an Oscar over the course of your lifetime. | Or maybe, you were a drama nerd and wanted to go to Hollywood and become an award-winner? Your mother probably scolded you for thinking such silly thoughts, and, on average, she was right. That said, she was a mighty statistical hypocrite if she then went and bought a lottery ticket. You have about a 1 in 7 million chance of taking home an Oscar over the course of your lifetime. |
| I guess there are two pieces of good news. | I guess there are two pieces of good news. |
| First, the chance you win the Powerball, at 1 in 175 million, is actually slightly better than holding a Mega Millions winning ticket was, at 1 in 176 million. So, if you, for some crazy reason, thought 1 in 176 million odds were too long, but 1 in 175 million is just right, then now is your chance! | First, the chance you win the Powerball, at 1 in 175 million, is actually slightly better than holding a Mega Millions winning ticket was, at 1 in 176 million. So, if you, for some crazy reason, thought 1 in 176 million odds were too long, but 1 in 175 million is just right, then now is your chance! |
| Second, the likelihood that you were born, given that all your ancestors and your parents had to meet, have sex, mother's egg meet father's sperm, and pregnancy be carried to term was only 1 in 10^2,685,000. I guess that's why life is the greatest miracle. | Second, the likelihood that you were born, given that all your ancestors and your parents had to meet, have sex, mother's egg meet father's sperm, and pregnancy be carried to term was only 1 in 10^2,685,000. I guess that's why life is the greatest miracle. |
| I'm betting, though, that you're only afforded one miracle of such gigantic proportions in a lifetime. And most of us have had ours already. | I'm betting, though, that you're only afforded one miracle of such gigantic proportions in a lifetime. And most of us have had ours already. |
| Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning. | |
| Our editors' picks for the day's top news and commentary delivered to your inbox each morning. Enter your email address to subscribe. |