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| 29 November – Date of reckoning for Palestine as UN again decides its fate | 29 November – Date of reckoning for Palestine as UN again decides its fate |
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| 29 November – when the UN general assembly is due to vote on membership for the state of Palestine – is one of the most resonant dates in the annals of the Arab-Israeli conflict. | 29 November – when the UN general assembly is due to vote on membership for the state of Palestine – is one of the most resonant dates in the annals of the Arab-Israeli conflict. |
| No one involved in the frenetic diplomacy surrounding Thursday's decision can be unaware that it was on that day in 1947 that the fledgling world body voted to partition the Holy Land into Jewish and Arab states. The timing was deliberately chosen by Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, because of that echo. | No one involved in the frenetic diplomacy surrounding Thursday's decision can be unaware that it was on that day in 1947 that the fledgling world body voted to partition the Holy Land into Jewish and Arab states. The timing was deliberately chosen by Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, because of that echo. |
| Back then the UN's temporary headquarters in New York witnessed a vote which deserves the overused adjective "historic". Intense lobbying by the Zionist movement and the US cajoled waverers such as Haiti and Paraguay into the majority of 33, the two-thirds required. Pressure and propaganda were rife. | Back then the UN's temporary headquarters in New York witnessed a vote which deserves the overused adjective "historic". Intense lobbying by the Zionist movement and the US cajoled waverers such as Haiti and Paraguay into the majority of 33, the two-thirds required. Pressure and propaganda were rife. |
| Thirteen members, including Arab and Muslim states, were opposed. The 10 countries that abstained included Britain, which had just decided to abandon its 30-year mandate over Palestine. Curiously, and for different reasons, the UK may abstain again – triggering outrage from MPs and human rights groups. | Thirteen members, including Arab and Muslim states, were opposed. The 10 countries that abstained included Britain, which had just decided to abandon its 30-year mandate over Palestine. Curiously, and for different reasons, the UK may abstain again – triggering outrage from MPs and human rights groups. |
| In 1947 support for the Zionist cause was driven by a combination of western remorse over the six million dead of the Nazi Holocaust and early cold war strategic calculations by the Soviet Union. The Arab side was disorganised and divided. | In 1947 support for the Zionist cause was driven by a combination of western remorse over the six million dead of the Nazi Holocaust and early cold war strategic calculations by the Soviet Union. The Arab side was disorganised and divided. |
| Jubilation in Jewish areas of Palestine – the writer Amos Oz has a riveting description in his memoirs – was matched by dismay and anger on the Arab side. The Arab League warned of terrible consequences. | Jubilation in Jewish areas of Palestine – the writer Amos Oz has a riveting description in his memoirs – was matched by dismay and anger on the Arab side. The Arab League warned of terrible consequences. |
| Sixty-five years ago the outcome of the vote was uncertain. It was followed at once by the outbreak of the first stage of the war that in 1948 secured Israel's independence and caused the Palestinian Nakba – the "catastrophe" – whose human and political consequences persist, through half a dozen more wars, to this day. | Sixty-five years ago the outcome of the vote was uncertain. It was followed at once by the outbreak of the first stage of the war that in 1948 secured Israel's independence and caused the Palestinian Nakba – the "catastrophe" – whose human and political consequences persist, through half a dozen more wars, to this day. |
| The result of Thursday's UN vote, however, is not in doubt: 132 of the UN's 193 member states have already recognised a putative state of Palestine. The US is against. What remains to be decided is what Britain, a permanent member of the security council, will do. France has pledged to vote yes, Germany no, thus splitting the EU vote. Russia and China are in the yes camp. | The result of Thursday's UN vote, however, is not in doubt: 132 of the UN's 193 member states have already recognised a putative state of Palestine. The US is against. What remains to be decided is what Britain, a permanent member of the security council, will do. France has pledged to vote yes, Germany no, thus splitting the EU vote. Russia and China are in the yes camp. |
| High principle is at stake here. Justice for the Palestinians enjoys very wide international support these days. The recent fighting in Gaza was a painful reminder of the huge risks of impasse. But pragmatic considerations are at work too. | High principle is at stake here. Justice for the Palestinians enjoys very wide international support these days. The recent fighting in Gaza was a painful reminder of the huge risks of impasse. But pragmatic considerations are at work too. |
| Britain will vote yes only if the Palestinians refrain from seeking membership of the international criminal court, which Israel fears would lead to war crimes charges. William Hague, the foreign secretary, told MPs on Wednesday that while the UK supported the ICC, the greater risk was making future negotiations on a two-state solution impossible. Avaaz, the online campaigning group, called that position disgusting. | Britain will vote yes only if the Palestinians refrain from seeking membership of the international criminal court, which Israel fears would lead to war crimes charges. William Hague, the foreign secretary, told MPs on Wednesday that while the UK supported the ICC, the greater risk was making future negotiations on a two-state solution impossible. Avaaz, the online campaigning group, called that position disgusting. |
| The US and Israel warn that UN membership for Palestine will prejudge the outcome of future peace talks and have hinted at retaliation. But there have been no substantive negotiations for years in part because Israel has refused to stop building settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem – and the US has failed to challenge Israel. Even so, Abbas has made clear that he is willing to start again as soon as the UN bid is through. | The US and Israel warn that UN membership for Palestine will prejudge the outcome of future peace talks and have hinted at retaliation. But there have been no substantive negotiations for years in part because Israel has refused to stop building settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem – and the US has failed to challenge Israel. Even so, Abbas has made clear that he is willing to start again as soon as the UN bid is through. |
| Abbas looks desperately weak compared with his rivals in Hamas, triumphant after eight days of firing rockets from blockaded Gaza into Israel's heartland. Western governments understand that he badly needs their support. | Abbas looks desperately weak compared with his rivals in Hamas, triumphant after eight days of firing rockets from blockaded Gaza into Israel's heartland. Western governments understand that he badly needs their support. |
| UN status would certainly have profound symbolic significance. "The Palestinian appeal to the UN is meant to make us a non-member state, thereby upgrading our status from that of 'disputed territory' – which is how we are widely perceived by Israel – to that of an occupied state," Abbas has said. It would go far beyond Yasser Arafat's unilateral declaration of independence in 1988. So this latest vote on Palestine will be closely watched. | UN status would certainly have profound symbolic significance. "The Palestinian appeal to the UN is meant to make us a non-member state, thereby upgrading our status from that of 'disputed territory' – which is how we are widely perceived by Israel – to that of an occupied state," Abbas has said. It would go far beyond Yasser Arafat's unilateral declaration of independence in 1988. So this latest vote on Palestine will be closely watched. |
| The big question, though, is whether this 29 November will do anything to help resolve the conflict – and deserve to go down in history again. | The big question, though, is whether this 29 November will do anything to help resolve the conflict – and deserve to go down in history again. |
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