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Full hospitals creating potential danger, analysis says Full hospitals creating potential danger, analysis says
(about 5 hours later)
By Nick Triggle Health correspondent, BBC NewsBy Nick Triggle Health correspondent, BBC News
Hospitals are "full to bursting" in England, creating a potentially dangerous environment for patients, an analysis by experts suggests.Hospitals are "full to bursting" in England, creating a potentially dangerous environment for patients, an analysis by experts suggests.
Hospitals should run at about 85% capacity to give them room to cope with surges in demand, and figures show the NHS average hovering around that mark.Hospitals should run at about 85% capacity to give them room to cope with surges in demand, and figures show the NHS average hovering around that mark.
But analysts Dr Foster said the figure was skewed by quiet periods and rose higher if they were stripped out.But analysts Dr Foster said the figure was skewed by quiet periods and rose higher if they were stripped out.
Ministers denied the NHS is overcrowded and said it could manage demand peaks.Ministers denied the NHS is overcrowded and said it could manage demand peaks.
According to the analysis, if only midweek figures are taken into account, the average capacity figure for 2011-12 was 88%.According to the analysis, if only midweek figures are taken into account, the average capacity figure for 2011-12 was 88%.
It rose to 90% if holiday periods, such as the royal wedding and Christmas, were stripped out, Dr Foster said.It rose to 90% if holiday periods, such as the royal wedding and Christmas, were stripped out, Dr Foster said.
The private research group said this was important as the quiet periods were helping to mask the fact that many trusts were now too full for long periods of the year.The private research group said this was important as the quiet periods were helping to mask the fact that many trusts were now too full for long periods of the year.
Its report, which excluded specialist centres but included 145 hospital trusts, said when hospitals were too busy patient care suffered because systems started breaking down.Its report, which excluded specialist centres but included 145 hospital trusts, said when hospitals were too busy patient care suffered because systems started breaking down.
Dr Foster co-founder Richard Taylor said: "When that happens, patients are put in whatever bed can be found, orderly management of admission and discharge can become strained, infections are harder to control and mistakes are more likely to happen." Dr Foster co-founder Roger Taylor said: "When that happens, patients are put in whatever bed can be found, orderly management of admission and discharge can become strained, infections are harder to control and mistakes are more likely to happen."
But the analysis argued that if the NHS organised itself better it could relieve the pressure on hospitals.But the analysis argued that if the NHS organised itself better it could relieve the pressure on hospitals.
From its analysis, Dr Foster said 29% of beds were taken up by patients who did not necessarily need to be there.From its analysis, Dr Foster said 29% of beds were taken up by patients who did not necessarily need to be there.
These included more than 10% who had conditions such as asthma and heart disease, which could be treated in the community, it said.These included more than 10% who had conditions such as asthma and heart disease, which could be treated in the community, it said.
Another 5% were readmissions within a week or discharge, while 2.5% were for dementia.Another 5% were readmissions within a week or discharge, while 2.5% were for dementia.
'Real strain''Real strain'
Patients Association chief executive Katherine Murphy said: "These distressing figures reveal bed occupancy rates are at the very limit of what is safe or indeed desirable for patients.Patients Association chief executive Katherine Murphy said: "These distressing figures reveal bed occupancy rates are at the very limit of what is safe or indeed desirable for patients.
"Our helpline hears day in day out from patients and relatives who are experiencing unacceptably poor care, with nursing staff telling relatives that they simply do not have time to deliver the fundamentals of good care or dignity.""Our helpline hears day in day out from patients and relatives who are experiencing unacceptably poor care, with nursing staff telling relatives that they simply do not have time to deliver the fundamentals of good care or dignity."
Mike Farrar, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, which represents hospitals, said: "The big message at the heart of this report is that hospitals are under real strain and patients will suffer unless we are able to take swift action."Mike Farrar, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, which represents hospitals, said: "The big message at the heart of this report is that hospitals are under real strain and patients will suffer unless we are able to take swift action."
He added the solution lay in investing in community services to take the strain off hospitals.He added the solution lay in investing in community services to take the strain off hospitals.
Dr Foster's study also included data on death rates. It uses four different measures, including deaths after surgery and among those with low-risk conditions, to help assess which hospitals are falling outside of what would be expected.Dr Foster's study also included data on death rates. It uses four different measures, including deaths after surgery and among those with low-risk conditions, to help assess which hospitals are falling outside of what would be expected.
A total of 12 trusts - down on last year's more than 20 - were flagged up as performing worse than expected on two of the four measures.A total of 12 trusts - down on last year's more than 20 - were flagged up as performing worse than expected on two of the four measures.
This does not mean services are performing poorly, but instead the findings act as more of a "smoke alarm", suggesting something could be going wrong.This does not mean services are performing poorly, but instead the findings act as more of a "smoke alarm", suggesting something could be going wrong.
Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt said local managers in those areas should investigate.Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt said local managers in those areas should investigate.
On bed occupancy, he said: "The NHS is not overcrowded - on average, there are around 20,000 of its beds available. Of course this goes up and down, but the NHS has practice and experience in managing peaks in demand, particularly in the winter."On bed occupancy, he said: "The NHS is not overcrowded - on average, there are around 20,000 of its beds available. Of course this goes up and down, but the NHS has practice and experience in managing peaks in demand, particularly in the winter."
Panorama will be covering more of the Dr Foster report in How Safe is Your Hospital? on Monday, 3 December at 20:30 GMT on BBC One.Panorama will be covering more of the Dr Foster report in How Safe is Your Hospital? on Monday, 3 December at 20:30 GMT on BBC One.